NBA Finals Preview

After following up my Lakers-Cavs miss with a bold prediction that the Cavs would come back from 3-1 to topple the Magic, it would be understandable if anyone reading the next few paragraphs will simply write it off as incoherent jargon. That being said, I got the Magic in 7 as Game 1 tips off in a matter of hours. I'll get to my reasoning in a minute, but first a quick rant on Kobe Bryant:

Earlier in the week, Gabe and I collaborated on a list of NFL stars you love to hate. To me, the list of NBA stars America loves to hate starts and ends with Kobe Bryant. The reason the marketing behind "Kobe vs. LeBron" worked so well(or would have worked so well, had LeBron held up his end of the bargain) is that it was the perfect example of the old "Black Hat, White Hat" cliche'. Kobe is everything you want in an antagonist. He's cocky, he's defiant, and he doesn't seem to care much about what you think of him. However, of all the adjectives placed upon "The Black Mamba", here's one you don't hear quite as often: Stupid.

For someone who got a solid education at a decent school in upper-class Pennsylvania, Kobe makes a lot of dumb decisions. He's fluent in multiple languages, but inexperienced in the subject of common sense. He's a slick shooter, who can't stop shooting himself in the foot. Kobe emerged on the scene as the Robin to Shaquille O'Neal's Batman, but Kobe's ever-growing ego wouldn't allow him to play second fiddle to The Diesel, thus forcing the death of the greatest inside-outside combo in recent memory and the elimination of the possibility of true Laker dominance. Kobe would then go on to destroy his sparkling, endorsement-friendly image even further by way of a well-publicized rape charge. Now, whether the sex was consentual or not, the fact remains that Kobe made a poor decision by even having another woman in his hotel room to begin with. The snowball effect continued to grow as years past from Kobe demanding a trade or a better supporting cast(ripping his GM and young center rigourously in the process) to his recent statement that it would be "crazy" to think that Shaq could have won his first three championships without him(Side note: As good as Kobe was at the turn of the century, the Lakers were still Shaq's team, so sorry Kobe, it's not unrealistic to think a team of Shaq, Glen Rice, a young Derek Fisher and an underrated Eddie Jones could have won those titles. Unlikely? Sure, but not impossible).

All the negative pub leads to where we are today, with many outside of L.A. actively rooting against Kobe to win his first ring without Shaq. Part of the reason the NBA and fans worldwide clamored for LeBron to make the Finals against the Lakers was because, at least up until his over-dramatized Game 6 walk-out, he was a more universally acceptable player. A great person and great player. We didn't want Kobe to pass the torch to LeBron, we wanted LeBron to take it from him. Now, it's up to "Superman" to conquer "The Black Mamba", which leads me to my reasoning behind my upset special.

1. Superman Returns. Already on his way to being a household name, Dwight Howard(much like Paul Pierce last year) has used the postseason as his coming-out party. On the biggest stage the NBA can provide, he'll do battle with a Lakers frontcourt that's softer than a 12 pack of Charmin. While forward Pau Gasol and center Andrew Bynum have some defensive skill to make Howard work a little, Howard is too big and strong to be contained by both men combined, let alone individually. The Lakers have had their struggles with talented big men throughout these playoffs. The Rockets gave them all they could handle until Yao Ming broke his foot and L.A. was routinely denied inside by the defensive pressure of Chris Anderson, Kenyon Martin and Nene' in the Nuggets series. While Howard is still developing on offense, he's the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and his brute strength and freakish atheletic ability will be able to compensate for his lack of technique.

Howard's presence inside will force Lakers' coach Phil Jackson into two options: Double down on Howard and leave one of Orlando's dangerous shooters open on the perimeter(a strategy that killed the Cavs) or stay at home on the perimeter and let Howard get his inside. While option B would seem to be the safer option, keep in mind that the horrendous officiating in these playoffs have limited banging inside. If Gasol or Bynum get into foul trouble, the Lakers have nothing behind them(The same holds true for the Magic if fouls force Howard to the bench early). With all those factors in mind, defensive stops will be hard to come by and the Magic are not the team you want to get into a shoot-out with.

2. Support System. While the Magic lack a genuine #2 behind Howard(though you could make the case Rashard Lewis is the Pau Gasol to Dwight's Kobe), they do have a stable of good players. Rafer Alston, Lewis, Courtney Lee, and Hedo Turkoglu all came contributed in big spots throughout these players and never more so than in the Eastern Conference Finals. The possible return of star point guard Jameer Nelson poses another problem for the Lakers, especially since their point guards Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar are human turnstiles on defense.

The Lakers, however, return the same supporting cast from last year's Finals runner-ups with the exception of the emergence of forward Trevor Ariza, the finally healthy(for now) Andrew Bynum and newly acquired guard Shannon Brown. While Ariza's defense and clutch shooting came up big in the Denver series, it remains to be seen whether he can turn it up another notch in this series. Another factor for the Lakers will be enigmatic forward Lamar Odom's production off the bench. While Odom is a versitile player whose size and skill set allow him to play and guard many positions, he has the tendency to disappear quicker than a Big Mac at Jessica Simpson's house. If Odom can be a spark off the bench, the Lakers could finally live up to their billing as the NBA's best team, but if the supporting cast fails Kobe like it did last year, this could very well be a short series.

3. Fate. The last month or so has proven that the Magic are the team you don't want to bet against. They've defied every postseason cliche' known to man by being a average defensive team that relies mainly on getting hot behind the arc and has a coach that tends to clam up in tense situations. Yet here they are. They've survived scares from an underrated Sixers team, a shorthanded but very game defending champion Celtics team and a Cavs team that many forcasted would make mincemeat of them. They're a giant killer led by a giant. Recent history has proven that teams that rally behind the underdog card tend to prevail more often than not.

On the other side of the Magic is a Lakers team that has at times looked dominant and at other times looked shaky. They needed crucial injuries to bail them out against Utah and Houston and needed spotty officiating to close the casket on Denver. While all the talk has been about this being "The Year of Kobe". However, we've been waiting for Kobe to make good on all the hype of him being due since the dismantling of the 2004 Lakers team that choked away the Finals to the Pistons. "The Year of Kobe" has led to more jilted enthuisiasm and false hope than Chinese Democracy. The Lakers have yet to beat the Magic this season, a stat shared by the Cavs prior to the Eastern Conference Finals that went overlooked behind all the Kobe-LeBron propaganda.

The Magic stand four wins away from proving the doubters wrong once again, and this time, I'm not crazy enough to bet against them.....but then again, consider the source.

---Dave