NBA Free Agency Primer

You may have heard this at least once between now and the last two years but this summer's crop of NBA free agents....well, it's pretty stacked. In an effort to apply some blanket coverage on the subject so we aren't boring everybody with a weekly "Where's LeBron going?" piece like so many of the major news sites are going to(I'm looking at you, ESPN!), I've decided to weigh in on where I think the big name SHOULD go(keyword: SHOULD...I don't want people saying "Well, I thought you said LeBron's going to New York!"). So here's my take on this summer's spending spree and I (just me, personally, I can't speak for Gabe) can assure you that, with both of us covering NBA teams for ProSportsBlogging this summer(Gabe on the Spurs, myself on the Wizards, that this will be the last time you hear about this before free agency kicks off July 1st.

1. LeBron James(Current team: Cleveland Cavaliers, as if you didn't know)

Breakdown: I shouldn't have to give you King James' resume, so I won't. The last few weeks, LeBron's been picked apart more than Heidi Montag on the surgeon's table. He went from winning his second MVP and being a sure-shot to taking home his first ring to, all of a sudden, a Karl Malone clone who will never win the big one because he lacks "killer instinct" after getting eliminated by the Celtics. Then came the report that James' mother may or may not have had "the relations" with LeBron's teammate Delonte West. With the early exit, everyone has now had extra time to give their take on LeBron's offseason plans.

Where he SHOULD go: A friend of mine asked me "If your mother slept with your co-worker, would you leave for another company or stay and have him fired?". I chose to leave. If LeBron stays and gets Delonte exiled, everyone will know it was because of this alleged incident with LeBron's mother and, not only will it add more fuel to the fire, it will give legitimacy to the story.

That's why LeBron should reunite with his good friend Jay-Z and go to the New Jersey Nets. The Nets give LeBron the opportunity to play in New York(albeit a couple years from now). Yes, I know, so do the Knicks, but here's what the Knicks don't have: a top three pick in a decent draft, a good supporting cast, aggressive ownership and the chance for LeBron to pick his own coach. If LeBron goes to the Knicks, he'll have 30 times the pressure to win a title than he did in Cleveland. Knicks fans care about championships. They are also, and I know this is going to get me in trouble, the most fickle fans in the NBA. The longer it takes LeBron to deliver a ring, the more likely fans will turn on him. It happened with Patrick Ewing. It happened with the Yankees and A-Rod. New Yorkers are impatient(Yes, I know, so are New Jerseyians...but that's only during midday traffic).

In New Jersey, he gets a new owner dying to prove himself. He gets Devin Harris and Brook Lopez PLUS whomever the Nets take at #3(be it Wesley Johnson of Syracuse or Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech). The Knicks gave away their lottery pick to Utah and, right now, they only have David Lee as a known commodity. Plus, the Nets have the money to bring in a second big name. Does Lopez-Favors-James-Joe Johnson(or Ray Allen)-Harris sound better to you than Eddy Curry-Lee-James-Joe Johnson(or Ray Allen)-Chris Duhon to you? I thought so. As for the other destinations? Look, if LeBron goes to Miami and wins a ring with D-Wade, the knock will be that he needed Wade to carry him. In New Jersey(or New York), LeBron gets to be his own man. Cleveland had a chance to give that to LeBron and they blew it for seven years. The Clippers? They have a young nucleus, but nothing proven beyond always-fat, always-hurt point guard Baron Davis. Plus, he'd be sharing his home court with Kobe and will be playing for a notoriously cheap owner. So LeBron, start looking for houses in the Garden State and take my advice and stay the hell out of South Orange.

2. Chris Bosh(Current team: Toronto Raptors)

Breakdown: When Bosh was taken 4th overall back in 2003 after just one year at Georgia Tech, "experts" loved his potential but thought he would need a year or two to grow. Turns out they were wrong. Bosh has been an instant double-double machine, has been remarkably healthy and has shown off a KG-like mid-range stroke with his quick left hand. Recently, Bosh gave his list of five teams he'd like to join this summer(Lakers, Raptors, Heat, Knicks and Bulls. Although, the Nets were added later on). As soon as Bosh named L.A., Lakers fans started getting into a tizzy about "Avatar"(meaning Bosh, not the movie) coming to L.A.

Where he SHOULD go: The only way Bosh is going to L.A. is through a sign-and-trade and we've already read this story before. There was talk early in the season of a Andrew Bynum-for-Bosh trade but that eventually simmered and it was believed that it was a rumor floated by Lakers coach Phil Jackson to motivate Bynum. While the Lakers gives Bosh the best chance at a title, it also gives him the worst chance at playing time and touches. In L.A., Bosh would be a third or fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Ron Artest. Plus, there's the presence of Lamar Odom. Bringing in Bosh would not only be a disservice to Odom and Gasol(as it would be a more expensive, bigger name that requires a decent amount of shots) but it would minimize Bosh's star power. Bosh isn't the type of big man who can carry a team by himself(as seen with his stint in Toronto). He's similar to where Gasol was prior to the Lakers trade out of Memphis: A star-quality big man, who is better served as a number two on a contender.

That's why Bosh should head to Miami and link up with Dwayne Wade. The Heat haven't had a legit big man since Shaq and 'Zo left. If the Raptors can talk the Heat into a sign-and-trade, perhaps a deal for troubled scorer Michael Beasley and guard Mario Chalmers would suffice(and if not, you still have Bosh/Wade/Beasley/Chalmers plus one more)? That would free some space for Miami to re-sign Wade, bring in Bosh and then sign a lower level role player like Mike Miller or Raymond Felton. The Heat are a top five team in the East with just Wade and his bumbling gang of four behind him. Bosh gives them another weapon. I know Bosh wants to wait on LeBron and sign wherever he goes, but what if LeBron somehow goes back to Cleveland? Unlike LeBron, Wade has a ring and has proven he can get to the Promised Land by putting a team on his back. However, like LeBron, Wade can't do it all by himself forever. He needs a sidekick and that's a role Bosh is built for.

3. Dwayne Wade(Current team: Miami Heat)

Breakdown: All "Flash" has done since entering the league in 2003 is win a championship, single-handedly keep Miami basketball alive, and become perhaps the best basketball player in the Eastern Conference. What Wade has managed to do with the Heat is nothing short of breathtaking. He made them a playoff team in his rookie season, then made them a title winner with Shaq a year later. Except, you don't hear much about Wade because all the talk has been about LeBron since the two entered the league. Whether Wade is better than LeBron is another debate for another day, the fact is, he's one of the game's 3 or 4 best players in the league and he's on the market.

Where he SHOULD go: Unless there is someway to orchestrate the Wade-LeBron-Bosh triumvate in New York like some had whispered about, Wade should stay in Miami. Yes, the Heat haven't been as aggressive in building a team around Wade as the Cavs were with LeBron or the Lakers were with Kobe, but at least Wade has the memory of winning a title in Miami to fall back on. Wade knows he's good enough to make the team a dangerous playoff team on his own, but the Celtics series proved that Wade needs some help. Could he find it elsewhere if he can get Bosh or LeBron or Boozer to tag along? Sure, but Wade has too much pride to ride someone else's coattails. He needs to be the alpha dog. In a class this deep, he can find one, whether it be Boozer or Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. He gets to work under one of the game's great minds in team president Pat Riley. Riley knows what is needed to win. You don't have that luxury in some of these other places.

Wade needs to stay and be the face of the franchise but only under the condition that his re-signing is paired with the signing of another big name. If he's willing to take less money to make the Bosh-Wade-LeBron trio work in Miami(far-fetched, but still), then fine. If he's willing to accept a big man like Boozer or Avatar to patrol the paint? Great, but Wade should only come back AFTER he puts pressure on the organization to make some whole sale changes. If he signs early, and the Heat make no other moves, then Flash is stuck without the luxury of having an opt-out clause like he did this season. Wade's managed to be a billboard star without the flashy lights of the Big Apple. He doesn't need the Knicks to make him a phenomenon. He just needs to win and he can do that by finishing what he started in South Beach.

4. Amare Stoudemire: (Current team: Phoenix Suns)

Breakdown: Like Bosh, many thought Amare needed some seasoning going from high school to the pros before he developed into a genuine beast. Like Bosh, they were wrong. Stoudemire has been a monster inside since Day 1. He's also been very unlucky. The Suns couldn't win the big one despite years of having supporting casts that would make LeBron salivate. Shawn Marion, Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw....the Suns have had the components to win titles. They just couldn't get over the hump. Over the last couple years, Amare's wore out his welcome and that has resulted in his name being involved in trade talks the last two seasons. The final straw may be his recent no-shows in the Western Conference Finals, where the Suns have been dominated inside by the Lakers. Those lackluster performances have led to reports that Amare's not coming back to the desert this summer....

Where he SHOULD go:......nor should he. While micro-fracture surgery has robbed Amare of being the athletic freak he once was, he's still capable of being a terror on both ends of the court. In Phoenix, he plays in a high-octane offense that is more geared toward scoring than defense(even with Alvin Gentry being more defense-oriented than predecessor Mike D'Antoni). Also, Phoenix has done favors to Amare's ego by letting trade rumors circulate for two seasons without anything being done on that end. The Suns were expected to be rebuilding at the beginning of the season, but shocked the world by being title contenders. That run can't go for much longer. Steve Nash is reaching the twilight of his career and his aching back can only handle so much punishment. Beyond that, even the role players are getting old. Grant Hill is pushing 60. Leandro Barbosa's getting up there. Amare needs to go to a young team where he can be the veteran and be able to show his skills on both offense AND defense.

My pick? The Washington Wizards. Look, teams aren't going to seriously consider Amare until after Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh are signed. Amare's a Lexus. Boozer's a Mercedes and Bosh is a Ferrari. You're not going to consider buying the Lexus if the Benz and the Ferrari are still on the lot and will only cost a few bucks more than the Lex. When the Wizards won the lottery and the chance at John Wall, they made themselves a bit more attractive to free agents. D.C. is a solid market. Wall is the type of point guard that can make Amare look good. Flip Saunders is a proven coach(three straight Eastern Conference Finals with Detroit prior to coming to Washington). I know Amare's a Florida boy and going back home to the Heat would be a nice homecoming, but is he higher on Miami's priorities than Bosh or Boozer? I don't think so. A Wall-Stoudemire combo could make the Wizards at least a playoff team and make Amare a bigger star and, as the team grows, they become players in the East(After all, if Cleveland loses LeBron, that's one less team at the top of the conference).

5. Carlos Boozer: (Current team: Utah Jazz)

Breakdown: Like Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer has been the subject of trade talk for the last couple of years. The breakout and subsequent big re-signing of fellow forward Paul Millsap made Boozer expendable, but nobody was going to trade for a guy who may jet at the end of the season if things go awry. Now, Boozer's a free agent and he can bring his services as an inside rebounding bully to a contender and the Jazz can launch the Millsap Era in Utah. For all of Boozer's dominance inside, the knock on him is his lack of durability. That might hurt him in the market(especially with Chris Bosh also a free agent), but teams would be crazy to completely write off Boozer because he's a little frail.

Where he SHOULD go: For Cavs fans, Carlos Boozer is "the one that got away". Since Boozer left Cleveland after his rookie contract was up, the Cavs have been relentless in finding a suitable replacement....and they've failed miserably. Antawn Jamison is nice, but he's nowhere near the inside presence that Boozer is. You have to wonder if LeBron is thinking that same thing. Carlos Boozer could have been the sidekick LeBron needed to be a title contender and the front office let him walk.

So why not a reunion? If LeBron signs with New Jersey, as I suggested he should, he should talk the suits into bringing his old buddy Boozer with him. That would allow the Nets to shift their focus to Wesley Johnson in the draft(or trading the pick, if need be) and gives the Nets a ridiculous inside combo with Boozer and Brook Lopez. Like the Knicks, the Nets spent much of the last few years cutting payroll so they can make moves this summer. Right now, they may be lined up for two big signings. Yi Jianlin is a nice outside shooting threat at power forward, but he's not starter-calibur. You bring in Boozer, who's the type of physical banger the Nets haven't had since Derrick Coleman and it frees up Lopez and it gives guys like Devin Harris(or LeBron, if he signs) alot of options. Again, with the Cavs potentially losing LeBron, that's one less team at the top. Could a Lopez-Boozer-LeBron-Wesley Johnson-Harris combo at least be a 6 or 7 seed in the East? Sure, especially with the right coach. Boozer will flirt with Miami and maybe even the Knicks(though I don't think he's a good fit in that offense) but with returning to Utah no longer an option, it should be Boozer(not Bosh) who waits to join LeBron wherever he goes.

6. Joe Johnson(Current team: Atlanta Hawks)

Breakdown: He was left for dead after the Celtics gave up on him being a star and sent to Phoenix. After breaking out with the Suns, he found greener pastures in Atlanta and made the Hawks a contender before too long. After a Eastern semis sweep by Orlando, Joe Johnson may have played his last game for the Hawks. Johnson is a big guard who can run the point, or even play the 3(and maybe some 4 in the right situation). He's like a veteran version of top prospect Evan Turner(though without Turner's upside).

Where he SHOULD go: The Hawks are already paying Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford and will eventually have to pay Josh Smith and Al Horford. With attendance in the ATL always suspect, you don't know if they can afford to give JJ the money he wants(or keep him for long, if they do pay him). Plus, with Mike Woodson out and new owners coming, there's a new regime coming to town. Johnson doesn't need to be a part of that.

Signing with the Knicks reunites Johnson with his own Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni. Mike D. knows what Johnson can do and Johnson knows he can excel in that offense. I know Joe Johnson isn't the name Knicks fans were hoping for with the recent salary purge, but you have to be realisitic and realize this Knicks team doesn't have the players to entice a guy like a LeBron James. Bringing in Joe Johnson is a nice start and if you can also bring back a former popular Knicks center by the name of Marcus Camby, then I'd be happy.(The other option, Knicks fans, might be trading for Gilbert Arenas.......) Johnson could be a point forward type or be the scorer. He could also try to team with LeBron somewhere but my bet is LeBron's going to take his time before deciding to leave home or not. Johnson can be a star in New York, and unlike in Atlanta, he won't have to worry about playing in half-filled buildings(although if free agency doesn't go as planned, you wonder if Knick fans will boycott going to the Garden).

So those are this year's Big Six. There are a couple of other notables available this summer. Here's some quick hit thoughts on them:

* I think this summer we wave goodbye to Shaq, AI, and T-Mac. Shaq mentioned returning to L.A. and that very well could happen, but I think Shaq proved this year that his heart's not really in it. If Shaq couldn't get in shape to try and win a ring for LeBron, what makes anyone think he'll be fit to team back up with the man that he couldn't co-exist with in his prime: Kobe Bryant? Iverson could play a couple more years in Philly but, with Evan Turner coming, minutes are going to be hard to come by and you wonder if the Sixers will even want to bring back "The Answer" because of that. As for McGrady, it's time he listens to his body and hangs 'em up. He could probably con the Clippers into overpaying him so he can play 30-40 games a season for them. McGrady isn't washed up. He still can be an elite scorer. It's just his knees have went to mush and, with his style of play, they aren't going to get any better.

*I suggested Marcus Camby go back to the Knicks and I think either New York or a return to Denver makes the most sense. The run in Portland was nice but, with Oden and Przybilla coming back, there's no room for "The Camby Man". Like T-Mac, Camby is always an injury risk and you wonder how much is left in the tank, but guys like Camby will always have a spot in this league because every team can use a shot-blocker/rebounder who isn't a team cancer(just look at Theo Ratliff). Camby isn't going to be a sexy signing for anyone but he may be the move that wins a playoff game or two for a contender and the Nuggets can sure use some more defense after getting humiliated by Utah in the playoffs. Another sleeper choice for Camby? The Oklahoma City Thunder, who need a big man and should have made the trade for Camby this winter anyway.

*The other "big" name is Celtics guard Ray Allen. Allen was almost foolishly shipped to Boston with Celtics savior Rajon Rondo last year and Allen was on the block for most of the first few months. In typical Allen fashion, Ray has heated up during the playoffs as the smell of new money has flared through his nostrils. The man once known as "Jesus Shuttlesworth" has gotten up in years and the C's may be better suited to look elsewhere for a big-time shooter(as they saw with the 'Sheed signing, some people just lose interest when they get old and overpaid). With the team getting older, they can't afford to hog up more cap space with aging talent. If they decide to move on with their starting shooting guard, Allen could look to a team like New Jersey(who desperately need a shooter), Washington(if they can get rid of Arenas), or Phoenix(who can use someone to take the load off Nash).