Week 5 Picks

There's this old saying...When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. I wish. Apparently it is going to take at least four or five weeks for me to get the feel of the NFL season and be able to make some correct predictions. I beat Dave by one game last week, but I'm still eight games under .500, and we are only four weeks into the season.

Here's the breakdown:

Last Week: Dave - 4-8, Gabe - 5-7

For the season:

Dave:

27-31-2

Gabe:

25-33-2

So the Big Margerhita Pizza has a two game lead in the season series, but neither of us is really tearing it up.

Quick notes on Week 5. The Boom Roasted boys will be taking a field trip to our nation's capital (OK, technically Maryland) to watch Dave's Packers take on the Redskins. I'm going to wear a Giants jersey to the game, to piss everyone off. D.C. might not be the same after tomorrow. Also, if you had the Kansas City Chiefs as the last undefeated team in the NFL, you're better at picking games than we are. Of course, that doesn't take much.

Now for the picks. As always, the odds are Danny Sheridan's from the USA Today.

Denver (+7) at Baltimore

Gabe: Baltimore - Ray Rice is fully healthy and will start. Baltimore is coming off of a huge win over Pittsburgh. Denver is coming off of a big win over the Titans. Who is more likely to suffer a hangover? Denver. This week Matthew Berry said on ESPN.com that Kyle Orton has become an every-week-no-matter-the-matchup-starter. I don't see that. The Ravens defense is mean. Give me the Ravens by nine.

Dave: Denver - I can't trust this Ravens offense to separate themselves enough from anyone to give them the nod in a spread higher than three. The Broncos play good D against the run, which will slow an already ailing Ray Rice and I think this becomes more of a shootout than people think. I like Baltimore to get the W here, but it will be close. Ravens by a field goal.

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Buffalo

Gabe: Buffalo - Don't be fooled by last week, Jacksonville always...always...gets up for playing Indy. Buffalo has enough of a secondary to keep Jacksonville one-dimensional on offense. Buffalo's offense might be coming together too. I predict this turning into a little shootout. Buffalo by three.

Dave: Jacksonville - I agree with Gabe. Don't be fooled by last week. The Jags still suck. Lucky for them, Buffalo sucks more. What has anyone seen from the Bills to warrent them being favorites at home against ANYONE, let alone a team coming off a big win against Indy? Not only that, they just traded away their most effective offensive threat thus far(Marshawn Lynch). The Bills pass D will make things difficult for David Garrard but Jacksonville still has MoJo, and I like them for the "upset".

Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis

Gabe: Indianapolis - Last week Indy lost to Jacksonville. This week they are going to be angry. I'd take them and give the points this week if they were on the road, playing the NFC Pro Bowl team, and only getting four points per touchdown. No way the not-as-good-as-their-record Chiefs keep it close. Indy by 10.

Dave: Kansas City - I may be going to the well one too many times with KC here, but is it possible the Chiefs are actually sneaky good? They don't give up a bunch of big plays on D. They have home run threats on offense and they get good field position on special teams. They are well-coached and they had an extra week to prepare. Indy's D gives up a lot of big plays. Could they give up a long run to Jamaal Charles or Dexter McCluster here or there to keep things close? I think so. Colts by 6.

St. Louis (+3) at Detroit

Gabe: Detroit - The Rams are what the Lions were last year. Rookie QB. A few weapons on offense. Unknown defensive talent. Next year the Rams could be decent. This year they lose to the Lions by seven.

Dave: St. Louis - Rams are pretty decent on defense. They are a legit 2-2. The Lions have suffered some tough breaks, but there's an old cliche that states good teams find ways to win games they shouldn't and bad teams find ways to lose games they should win. The Lions had every opportunity to beat Green Bay last week, and couldn't fire the killshot. Sure, they are due for a win here after four tough losses, but I'll pick Detroit to pull one out when I actually see them do it first.

Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland

Gabe: Atlanta - The Falcons escaped last week. Cleveland's biggest weapon on offense is running back Peyton Hillis. Here's a secret, the Falcons are 11th in the league against the run. Dirty Birds by nine.

Dave: Atlanta - Peyton Hillis is playing with a thigh injury. Jake Delhomme is back at QB for Cleveland. You know what that means for the Falcons defense? FIELD DAY! I see Dunta Robinson running back a pick-6 here and Matt Ryan and company letting off the big guns on the road. Falcons by 14.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cincinnati

Gabe: Cincinnati - It looks like Carson Palmer has busted out of his funk. He and T.O. got nice last week. (Look at that. It took five weeks for me to use that phrase.) Unfortunately they still lost. Tampa Bay doesn't many weapons and Cincy is at home. I'll say Cincy barely covers and wins by seven.

Dave: Cincinnati - This pick makes me a bit queasy. After all, Cincy just lost to lowly Cleveland and they haven't really been that impressive all season, save for a win against Baltimore. Tampa Bay is very young and they are years away from competing, which is why I think the Bengals run all over them, but I can't say that's a certianty. Bengals by a touchdown.

Chicago (+1.5) at Carolina

Gabe: Chicago - I think the Giants just sacked Jay Cutler again this morning. The Bears are probably going to be starting Todd Collins at quarterback. Now, if Julius Peppers were still a Panther I might feel differently about this game, but Carolina doesn't have the pass rush New York does. They are also going to be without their Steve Smith. Cutler might still be seeing flashes of blue in his sleep, but as people in Redskins country know, Todd Collins is absolutely capable of leading a team to wins, at least for the short term. Chicago bounces back and wins by four.

Dave: Chicago - Here's a fun prediction for you: Todd Collins puts on a show against lowly Carolina and we spend the next week or so with the inevitable "Should Chicago bench Jay Cutler and go with Collins?" controversy, followed by Cutler stinking it up next week under the pressure and we get countless stills of the "Sulking Cutler Face" that we saw in the first half of the Giants beatdown last week. The skids are greased for Collins here. The Panthers are without Steve Smith, making an already inept offense even more toothless. Carolina's D isn't going to expose this terrible Bears O-Line like Big Blue did and Collins is going to spread the ball around. Bears by 10.

Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington

Gabe: Green Bay - The Redskins only play well against good teams if those teams are in the NFC East. Check that...the Redskins only play well against teams from the NFC East. Otherwise they make sure to lose by two touchdowns. The Packers are going to carve the 'Skins up. Green Bay by 10.

Dave: Green Bay - At the end of the day, not getting Marshawn Lynch will be the death knell for the 2010 Packers. The lack of a running game is really this team's only Achilles' heel. Without a decent run game to wear down the clock, Green Bay can't put teams away in the 2nd half like they should be doing. What does that mean this week? Well, nothing, because Washington isn't very good. However, with Green Bay unable to run down the clock, I can see the Packers having to sweat this one out again. Pack by a field goal.

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Houston

Gabe: N.Y. Giants - I honestly can't get a bead on either of these teams, and I'm a Giants fan. The Giants really got their pass rush in order last week. If they can do that this week against Houston they could really stifle the Texans' passing game. Both teams have the talent on offense to turn this into a shootout. The Giants have that pass rush, but with Brian Cushing coming back and Mario Williams at end, the Texans have a nice pass rush too. Honestly, Eli is more prone to making a bone-headed mistake under pressure, but I think this game will be close. Upset special? Why not? Giants by 4.

Dave: Houston - When this season is over, no matter how it ends, Tiki Barber getting booed at halftime by the New York faithful will be my favorite moment of this season. It coudn't have happened to a more worthless human being. The Giants exposed Chicago as impostors last week and I expect the Texans to return the favor to Big Blue this week. Eli Manning isn't a good QB and now has to face a defense that is bringing back Brian Cushing and already has Mario Williams. On offense, the Texans may have the most balance of any team in the league. Arian Foster leads the league in rushing and, if Andre Johnson is somewhat healthy, he and Matt Schaub are a formidable pair. I like Houston to spread its wings here. Texans by 10.

New Orleans (-7) at Arizona

Gabe: New Orleans - Arizona sucks. They are starting something called Max Hall at quarterback. Max Hall sounds like a perfect name for a game show host. New Orleans rolls and wins by double digits.

Dave: New Orleans - As bad as New Orleans has been this season, this spread couldn't be high enough with how putrid Arizona has been. Now, Max Hall could be the goods. He was productive at BYU and the Saints D isn't intimidating enough to where Hall can't make plays here. Still, it's an undrafted rookie QB against the defending champs in a game the Saints have to dominate to prove themselves that they aren't on a Super Bowl hangover. Saints by 21.

San Diego (-6) at Oakland

Gabe: San Diego - Oakland play valiantly last week and gave Houston all they could take...and the Raiders still lost. They are so dysfunctional that I just can't trust them to win a game. Yes, they have one great corner, but San Diego has too many weapons. The Chargers by at least seven.

Dave: San Diego - I'm finally over Oakland as a sleeper. I kept making excuses for them week after week but, you know what, they just aren't good. The biggest contribution the 2010 Raiders will make will be landing Mark Ingram in New England come April. The passing game is inept. The running game has been decent, but Darren McFadden's out, so they'll sputter there, too. The defense is above average, but with the way San Diego's been moving the ball lately, Oakland's not going to be able to stop them. Chargers NEED this win here to keep hope alive(especially with the Chiefs facing the Colts) and I expect them to bludgeon the Raiders. Chargers by 14.

Tennessee (+6) at Dallas

Gabe: Tennessee - The Titans just lost a game they had no business losing. Dallas has had a bye week to figure out ways to mis-use their talent and not device a plan to stop Chris Johnson. CJ2K has not had a 40 point fantasy game in a few weeks and he is about due. Titans for the flat-out win in my true....wait for it....upset special!!! Titans by a touchdown.

Dave: Dallas - I really hate picking the Cowboys. I don't think they are a very good team and I actually enjoy it when they lose. Still, I'm not sold on Tennessee just yet. Their entire team is Chris Johnson and nothing else. They'd probably have CJ2K play on defense and return kicks if there wasn't a risk of injury. Cowboys showed their potential against Houston two weeks ago. They are well-rested and desperate AND at home. It pains me to write this, but Cowboys by 10.

Philadelphia (+3) at San Francisco

Gabe: Philadelphia - Last week I said San Francisco was going to play with pride and not go to 0-4. They played their ass off, but still lost. I don't think they'll be able to get up for this game like they did last week. Kevin Kolb is going to have a chip on his shoulder when he makes this start. I think Kolb goes nuts and Philly wins, in what would evidently be an upset.

Dave: San Francisco - I mean, it HAS to happen for the Niners eventually, right? Why not this week, at home, facing an inept checkdown-happy QB, with their starting RB and best CB out, coached by one of the worst clock managers in the game? I think we see Michael Crabtree break out here, followed by a big game by "The Inconvenient Truth" Frank Gore. Niners by 6.

Minnesota (+4) at N.Y. Jets

Gabe: Minnesota - To mention Brett Favre's pecker or to not mention Brett Favre's pecker? Well, it's already too late, so fuck it. Deadspin could not have picked a better week to update their story about the old gun-slinger trying to...ummm...sling his gun. (Oh, and if you think Deadspin waiting until this week wasn't by design I have bridge I could sell you...cheap...in Brooklyn...I own it...seriously...is this sad tool worn out yet?...that's what she said...to Brett Favre...alright...bring in Brady Quinn...now I'm done.) The fans in New York are going to be relentless to Favre, but, if there is one man who can ignore everything off the field and play well, it's Favre. In fact, he thrives on being the antagonist. Oh, and let's not forget, we are only a few weeks removed from Randy Moss making Darelle Revis look like a chump, and now he gets to do it all over again, with Favre throwing him the ball, not Mark Sanchez. I'll take Minnesota to win outright, by a touchdown.

Dave: New York Jets - The Vikings still have to figure how to incorporate their newest distraction, Randy Moss, on half a week's time, while trying to defuse Favre's recent chicanery(Side note: Deadspin launched the Favre story months ago. They just finally used the evidence this week because they, unlike us, lack tact. And if you are wondering why there isn't any witty retorts from yours truly, it's because I'm saving them for tomorrow's rant. Stay tuned.) Revis is going to struggle a little in his first game back but if the Jets are for real, they'll topple a Vikings team that isn't very good yet. When Moss and Favre get more time together, then they'll be more intimidating. Right now though? This team is in disarray and this latest Favre distraction does not help matters. Jets by 10.