Like with any great prize fight, the opening rounds are mainly used to feel out the opponent and get a good grasp of a proper strategy going forward. After three weeks, Gabe and I are still trying to get a feel of this NFL season and try not to look like buffoons with these picks as the season progresses. With that being said, Week 3 was an epic failure for both combatants but I managed to move up another game on the King of Queens. Neither of us, however, could muster a record over .500 last week.
Onward to Week 4.....
Last Week: (Dave - 7-9, Gabe 6-10)
Season: (Dave: 23-23-2, Gabe 20-26-2)
Broncos (+6.5) at Titans
Dave: Broncos - I'm still trying to figure out these two teams. Tennessee's two wins came against a subpar Raiders team that keeps finding ways to lose and Gabe's Giants, who have thus far been disappointing. Their offense lives and dies with one man, RB Chris Johnson, and now they'll go up against the 10th best rush defense in football. The Titans also possess the 30th best passing offense, which means if Denver can stop Chris Johnson, the Titans are dicked. I think this game is closer than people think and, while I still see the Titans pulling out the victory, I see it being by a field goal or two.
Gabe: Titans - I still think Denver is not very good. The Titans offense is all about Chris Johnson and Denver's defense appears good against the run. All that said, I have a gut feeling and I'm going to take the Titans at home to win by a touchdown.
Ravens (+2.5) at Steelers
Dave: Steelers - These Ravens-Steelers clashes always seem to go down to the wire and Pittsburgh QB Charlie Batch won't have the same success against Baltimore that he did against Tampa Bay last week. Still, Ray Rice is banged up for the Ravens and QB Joe Flacco hasn't been the breakout star many thought he would be in Year 3. I think this is another ugly, tightly-contested smashmouth affair with the team that can move the ball better being the victor in a game of field position. That team, to me, will be Pittsburgh who have been the best story so far at 3-0 with Big Ben on the sidelines.
Gabe: Steelers - The Ravens are banged up at running back. The Steelers defense is great. The Ravens defense is still good and they will be facing journeyman QB Charlie Batch. I think the Steelers win out and take it by at least a field goal.
Bengals (-3) at Browns
Dave: Bengals - The Browns are feistier than they credit for, but they are still a team that is lacking talent in nearly every facet of the game(except special teams with super return man Josh Cribbs). The Bengals play steady D and, while the offense hasn't been the explosion of points you would think given Carson Palmer's weapons, they can score on this average Browns defense. Bengals by a touchdown.
Gabe: Bengals - The Browns stink. The Bengals defense is opportunistic. Cincy is going to cause turnovers. Carson Palmer has been playing poorly, but who better to breakout against than the Browns? I think the Bengals offense finally gets a little traction and they win this game by 10.
Lions (+14) at Packers
Dave: Packers - Don't let Monday night's loss change your mind on the Packers being one of the best, if not THE best, team in the NFC. With 17 penalties, some horrible coaching down the stretch, and a bad fumble that led to the Bears game-clinching field goal, Green Bay still only lost by 3 on the road. The chances of them shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly against Detroit like they did in Chicago are slim. Aaron Rodgers is going to come out firing and this is the make-or-break game for Brandon Jackson. If he breaks out here, the Packers might have something in the former Husker. If not, John Kuhn will be holding down the run game until the inevitable desperation Marshawn Lynch trade is consummated. Either way, Lions QB Shaun Hill will complete a couple passes to Charles Woodson and Nick Collins(Hint: They aren't on Hill's team) and Clay Matthews Jr. plants Hill for a couple sacks, while Aaron Rodgers balls out on Detroit's secondary. Packers by 17.
Gabe: Packers - A division game, with Shaun Hill starting at quarterback, in Green Bay, against an angry Packers team. I kind of feel sorry for the Lions in this one. Packers by 21.
Panthers (+13) at Saints
Dave: Panthers - The Super Bowl hangover for New Orleans has caused the team to sputter on both sides of the ball and made games that should have been blowouts a lot closer. They scraped their way out of a loss to Minnesota in the opener. They laid down for all but the final minutes of the Monday nighter against San Francisco and they let Atlanta catch them napping in an OT loss last week. Do I think Carolina can beat them? No. Could they control the clock with the running game and grind out a mere 10 point loss to the defending champs? I think so. Saints by 10.
Gabe: Panthers - The Saints are starting LaDell Betts and Chris Ivory at running back. They don't really scare anyone with that running game. That being said, Drew Brees is still under center and he can make superstars out of nobodies with his skill at distributing the ball. On the other side of the ball, Carolina is once again going with Jimmy Clausen, which means they will be one dimensional. That one dimension, their running game, is great. Good enough to win? No, but good enough to keep it within two touchdowns.
49ers (+6.5) at Falcons
Dave: Falcons - My wife has a hunch that this is the game San Fran gets off the snide and shows the world what they are made of against a very good Atlanta squad. My wife also thinks "Walker, Texas Ranger" is a good show and as much as I'd love to co-sign her sage advice, I just can't. I'm not sure what is wrong with these Niners but they are the epitome of underwhelming. A team that should be mauling teams on the ground is 27th in rushing. What was supposed to be a tenacious defense is dead last in points allowed. Now, they have to go on the road and beat a riding-high Falcons team, who just snatched a victory out of the defending champs. I think Matt Ryan blows up here and we start to count the days for Mike Singletary as the man in San Fran.
Gabe: San Francisco - San Fran has to win at some point right? Right? They can't keep up this bad play forever, right? Atlanta might suffer something of hangover after their emotional win over the champs last week. NFL coaches break the season down into quarters and this week marks the end of the first quarter. The Niners need this win to end the quarter on a positive and salvage their season. Lose today and they might be playing out the string, starting in Week 5. Niners by a touchdown.
Seahawks (+1) at Rams
Dave: Seahawks - I'm still confused by Seattle. They had a nice win over San Diego, but the Chargers could very well suck. The Rams DO very well suck and they'll probably be without RB Steven Jackson. Even with Sam Bradford starting to develop under center, the Rams are still abysmal. I'd like to see Justin Forsett bust out here for the 'Hawks. Seattle by 14.
Gabe: Seahawks - I still think Seattle sucks. But the Rams suck more. The Hawks won't lay down like the Redskins always do. Seattle by 7.
Jets (-6) at Bills
Dave: Jets - If you listen closely, you can hear kids in Taiwan stitching Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett's name on the back of hundreds of Buffalo Bills jerseys in anticipation for his selection of the #1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Jets by 10, even without Revis.
Gabe: Jets - Revis is out, but the Jets defense is still nasty. Don't expect "Fitzpatrick to Evans" to start tearing the league up. Jets by double digits.
Colts (-7) at Jaguars
Dave: Colts - Dear Jack Del Rio, if you need help filling out your resume after this game is over, send me an email. Jags are terrible and I can't think of one good reason why this team shouldn't either be blown up or shipped to Los Angeles. Colts by 14.
Gabe: Colts - David Garrard threw for like four yards last week. The Jags are completely one-dimensional on offense with Mojo D. The Colts are going to score early and often. Indy by 17.
Texans (-3) at Raiders
Dave: Raiders - In Gabe's honor, consider this my upset special. The Texans have underperformed in two straight now and only a Washington collapse two weeks ago keeps them from being 1-2 instead of 2-1. The Raiders, meanwhile, shot themselves in the foot last week and should be 2-1 right now. Nnamdi Asomugha is going to shut down a gimpy Andre Johnson and Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski is going to use his feet to buy him some time against a solid Houston pass rush and make a few plays to keep this one closer than you think. This will be a good showdown between two emerging backs, Darren McFadden and Arian Foster, but I think Raiders win by a field goal.
Gabe: Texans - In the words of the pope, and with all respect to Dave, that upset shit ain't happening. Last week the Texans were embarrassed in the Battle for Texas and they are going to be looking to take that out on someone. Yes Asomugha will probably shut down Johnson, but Houston is deep with weapons offense. Texans by 10.
Cardinals (+9) at Chargers
Dave: Chargers - Last week, I predicted we'd see Arizona go to the bullpen and call for Max Hall and only the Raiders outright refusing to trounce a terrible Cardinals team kept that prediction from happening. This time around, San Diego isn't going to make the same mistake Oakland did. Cardinals get stomped out by a desperate Chargers team that wants to gain ground on a bye-week ridden Chiefs team and we see Max Hall by halftime. Also, Ryan Mathews tastes pay dirt twice. Chargers by 14.
Gabe: Chargers - Dave's right. The Cardinals are terrible. This is the point in the year when San Diego usually starts playing like we all they are capable of. Chargers by 10.
Redskins (+5.5) at Eagles
Dave: Redskins - It's the game new Washington QB Donovan McNabb had circled on the calender for months and, after getting upset by St. Louis last week, the Redskins know they need to pull out all the stops against Philly to keep the natives from rioting. Given how electrifying Mike Vick has been the last three weeks and all the back story with McNabb facing his old team in the city that never truly appreciated him, I can't understand for the life of me why this wasn't the Sunday nighter instead of Bears-Giants. Regardless, McNabb knows Andy Reid and his ineptitude and I can't see Shanahan not doing right by his veteran QB in a redemption game with serious division ramifications at stake. McNabb and Vick have a shootout, but the obvious coaching advantage in crunch time gives the 'Skins the edge. Redskins by 3.
Gabe: Eagles - The Eagles also had this game circled on their calendars. It is going to be an emotional ride for McNabb to come back as a visitor to the stadium he called home for eleven years. He is also going to have to watch a younger, faster, better, version of himself, with better weapons work on the other side of the field. The Eagles are better and they'll win by at least a touchdown.
Bears (+3.5) at Giants
Dave: Bears - I'm not sure if the Bears are good or just really lucky. They are a play or two here and there from being 0-3 but you have to have some kind of skill to keep pulling these wins out. The Giants, meanwhile, can't catch a break. After whooping a bad Panthers team, they got humiliated by Indy and curb-stomped by Tennessee. With Brandon Jacobs sulking, the Giants don't have the same identity that they did as Super Bowl champs, which is as a smashmouth team that pounds the ball and stifles you on D. Instead, Eli Manning is forced to make plays, which exposes him as the bust he's always been and the defense is getting rope-a-doped by being on the field too long and tiring out. I'd love to see a Bears loss here but I can't trust this Giants team anymore. Bears by 6.
Patriots (-1) at Dolphins
Dave: Dolphins - Miami always seems to have New England's number. QB Chad Henne is starting to get better acquainted with Brandon Marshall and, with the Patriots D so putrid, that's not going to change on Monday night. I expect Miami to continue to befuddle the Pats with the Wildcat while Gruden and Jaws overreact to every half-decent Tom Brady pass or Wes Welker catch. Miami gets a big W here, win by 7.
Gabe: Dolphins - I think Chad Henne is going to have a huge game. The Patriots defense is old and slow and I think Henne and Marshall are going to carve them up. Miami by 7.
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