The 2011 Major League Baseball season kicks off tomorrow with a light helping of games. This season may be the most pivotal for America's former pastime since they returned to action from the '94 strike. Why, you ask? Because this is baseball's best opportunity to take back the mantle as America's favorite sport with football(the current champion) in gridlock over a labor dispute that threatens the upcoming season. You know what a baseball season unopposed by the NFL does for TV ratings for MLB? A lot. The problem this season is there isn't much suspense. Thanks to big market teams loading up in the offseason and feasting on its smaller market counterparts, there isn't much depth in the contender department. I don't want to spoil the suspense of this website's World Series prediction, but let's say it isn't exactly a curveball. So, without further ado, here's how I think the 2011 baseball season will shake out:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East: Boston Red Sox - Injuries kept this BoSox team from being in the playoffs last year. Dustin Pedroia went down. Jacoby Ellsbury, as usual, went down. Kevin Youkilis got hurt. Josh Beckett hurt his back. All of those guys are back and healthy and they brought some heavy hitters with them. Left fielder Carl Crawford brings speed at the top of the lineup that Boston hasn't had in quite some time(don't try to sell me on CoCo Crisp or Ellsbury. Those guys are Bengie Molina compared to Crawford's wheels). Joining Crawford is slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who is just the young, powerful lefty bat this team has craved for years. If A-Gon was putting up big numbers in spacious Petco Park, then he's bound to rake at Fenway. Crawford and Gonzalez also bring solid glove work to Boston, making an already good defensive team great. As for the rotation, it says something about your depth when a former World Series MVP like Josh Beckett is your #4 starter. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were solid in breakout seasons last year, while vets John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka need to step it up. Beckett himself has been getting shelled worse than Libya this spring and the Sox are going to need him to bounce back after a lackluster, injury-riddled 2010 campaign. In the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon has shared Beckett's agony of getting beat up this spring. In a contract year, Papelbon could be on the trading block with young reliever Daniel Bard waiting in the wings. If this team is healthy, they should run away with the East and have to be the favorites in the American League. The pitching is solid and an already deep lineup now has two new members who offer up premiums by way of speed(Crawford) and a sweet lefty stroke(Gonzalez). The only thing standing in this team's way is themselves.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins - The AL Central is going to be the tightest race in the American League, if not all of baseball, because it's legitimately three teams deep. Chicago may be the most balanced in the entire division and Detroit is a solid dark horse with the addition of slugger Victor Martinez. So, why Minnesota? For one, Minnesota has run roughshod on Chicago. Since 2009, the Twins are 25-11 against the White Sox. Second, the lineup is pretty scary 3 thru 7 provided everyone's healthy. Former AL MVP catcher Joe Mauer is the best pure hitter in the league and, unlike last year, comes into this season healthy from the get-go. Behind him is another former MVP in Justin Morneau, who is trying to come back from a concussion that derailed what looked like another MVP calibur season last year. Left fielder Delmon Young picked up some of the slack in Morneau's absence(.298, 21 HR, 112 RBI) and the former #1 overall pick will have better pitches to hit with Morneau in front of him. DH Jason Kubel and RF Michael Cuddyer are also steady bats that will give opposing pitchers fits. Speaking of pitching, there lies the Twins' biggest question mark. The team will rely on Carl Pavano to once again be a workhorse at the top of the rotation(17-11, 7 complete games, 2 shutouts, 3.75 ERA). Pavano hadn't had a season quite like 2010 since his last season with the Florida Marlins in 2004(both seasons were contract years. I'm gonna say that isn't a coincidence) and might be a risk to be relied upon as the team's ace. Youngster Francisco Liriano bounced back last year after a couple rocky seasons following Tommy John surgery. Liriano struck out 201 batters and went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 2010. Beyond those two, however, things get merky. Scott Baker has proven to be a decent bottom of the rotation starter but Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing don't quite have the track record of being reliable hurlers. The bullpen also has its share of instability. The Twins lost quite a bit in free agency with relievers such as Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch skipping town for greener pastures. Minnesota does still have former Pirates/Nationals closer Matt Capps, who has been lights out this spring. Capps will be crucial as the team tries to work former All-Star closer Joe Nathan back into his role as the 9th inning stopper after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The Twins are the shakiest of any of my division picks but their calling card over the years has been outhustling teams with a solid defense, playing smart baseball, and taking advantage of their always deep farm system. While the team has a lot of unproven young talent, the key words are still "young talent". Anyone can emerge from this young organization and given their track record in the division, they'll be tough to put away in the fall.
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Cliff Lee leaving Texas takes the Rangers down a few notches, even with that prolific offense and the A's and Mariners may be a year or two away from contention. The Angels have a good rotation of proven starters. Frontline starters Dan Haren and Jered Weaver will be in the running for the Cy Young and while the bottom three of Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro are a bit shaky, all three have put together decent seasons in the not-so-distant past. The lineup added yet another overpriced bat in the outfield via a trade for former Blue Jays All-Star centerfielder Vernon Wells. Wells has battled injuries throughout his career but had a good 2010 with Toronto last year(.273, 31 HR, 88 RBI). The lineup will also get a jolt with the inevitable return of 1B Kendrys Morales, who was off to a torrant start last year before breaking his leg, Bill Gramatica-style, celebrating after a home run. Morales has been slow to recover from his leg injury, but should rejoin the team by the end of April, barring a setback. Morales and Wells add punch to a lineup that already had slick-fielding outfielder Torii Hunter and old-but-steady DH Bobby Abreu. The veteran presence on this Angels team is what gives them the slight edge over the more offensively-appeasing Rangers and the still-green A's. The bullpen is a little suspect with hard-throwing-but-occassionally wild closer Fernando Rodney at the back end but the 1-2 of Haren and Weaver along with the return of Morales and the addition of Wells should be enough to give the Angels the division.
AL Wild Card: Chicago White Sox - You could probably flip a coin between the White Sox and Twins for the AL Central crown but I think that race will be tight enough that the loser will still make the playoffs. That may make you cringe if you're a Yankees fan but I'll get to why there will be no postseason in the Bronx later. The word that best describes Ozzie Guillen's team is "balanced". The lineup leads off with stolen base king Juan Pierre and then becomes significantly more dangerous as you deeper into the middle of the order. 2B Gordon Beckham was once a top prospect who could still emerge and the 3-4-5-6 of newly acquired bopper Adam Dunn, steady vet Paul Konerko, and former breakout star OFs Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin. With Dunn moving to the DH spot he was born to play, he's a lock for 40 homers and around 200 strikeouts. Konerko, meanwhile, is coming off his best season since 2005(.312, 39 HR, 111 RBI) and both Quentin and Rios are coming off 20-homer campaigns. Rios adds another dynamic with his speed, having stolen at least 20 bases the last three seasons including 30+ in 2010 and 2008. The depth of the rotation will depend on the health of former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Peavy suffered a devastating arm injury last season and is set to miss at least all of April as he tries to comeback. Still, Peavy's penciled in as their fifth starter when he returns. Mark Buehrle returns yet again as the team's ace and youngster John Danks is waiting in the wings as the White Sox's future at the top of the rotation. Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson have been inconsistant throughout their careers but still possess a ton of potential. Another young arm with potential is new closer Matt Thornton. Thornton takes over for Bobby Jenks and he'll be feeling the warm breath of prospect Chris Sale breathing down his neck. If Thornton and Sale can carry the load late in games, the White Sox will be tough to match run for run with the depth in their rotation and the power in the middle of the lineup.
AL Team on the Rise: Oakland A's - GM Billy Beane always seems to replace good young arms with more good young arms. First, it was the Big Three of Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. Then, you had guys like Rich Harden and Dan Haren. Now, you have a new Big Three in young hurlers Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez(not to mention Dallas Braden, who threw a perfect game last season). Anderson was off to a solid start before injuries forced him to pump the breaks. Meanwhile, Cahill and Gonzalez showed flashes of being dominant young starters. What holds the A's back, however, is the lack of proven bats in the lineup. The most feared hitter on this A's team is washed-up DH Hideki Matsui and, after him, you have journeyman Josh Willingham. Gone are the days of Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye and Eric Chavez knocking the cover off the ball. The team needs to find a legit bat to stuff in the middle of the order and give these young arms some run support. Given Beane's savvy, that bat could be coming sooner rather than later.
AL Team on the Decline: New York Yankees - The Yankees' lineup is stacked like it's always been. It's also pretty damn old. Second baseman Robinson Cano will compete for MVPs and batting titles throughout his career but, beyond him and 1B Mark Teixeira, there aren't any young bats to get excited about. A-Rod will put together another 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season but he's pushing 40. Derek Jeter has already shown signs of decline with his arm and his glove and he was never that powerful of a hitter to begin with. Jorge Posada has been pushed to DH because of his deteriorating skills behind the plate and his replacement, Russell Martin, is a brittle washout who is keeping the seat warm for prospect Jesus Montero. The lineup isn't my concern for the boys in pinstripes. The rotation has to concern you as a Yankees fan. Beyond C.C. Sabathia(who should have won the Cy Young last year), who do you have confidence in in this rotation? A.J. Burnett saves his best work for contract years. Phil Hughes was solid last season but he'll be starting just his second full season as a starter. Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia? Yikes. The bullpen will make up for a lot of the rotation's flaws. The Yanks' have the greatest closer of all-time in Mariano Rivera to shut the door in the 9th inning and he'll be set up by highly-paid flamethrower Rafael Soriano and once-promising starter-now-reliever Joba Chamberlain. Still. we know how quick the panic starts in the Bronx, especially if the hated Red Sox jump out to a hot start. If the Yankees can't get quality starts from guys not named C.C., expect the back pages to call for Joe Girardi's head and a certian young ace who stole the Cy from C.C. last season.
AL Breakout Player of 2010: Gio Gonzalez, P, Oakland A's - Trevor Cahill won 18 games for the A's last year. Brett Anderson was in All-Star form before getting hurt and Dallas Braden famously threw a perfecto on Mother's Day. Those guys aren't quite household names but a big year out of any one of them shouldn't shock you. Neither should a breakout season from Gonzalez, who went 15-9 with a 3.23 ERA, striking out 171 batters in a little over 200 innings last year. Hitters are hitting .170 against Gonzo in spring training so far this season and he won't find too many tough pitching matchups as the A's fourth starter. Cy Young contention might be a bit much but a season similar to Cahill's 2010 (18-8, 2.97, 118 K's) seems about right.
Three Fearless AL Predictions
1. Sticking with the A's rotation, the top four starters for Oakland will all win at least 13 games this season. As mentioned earlier, run support will be Oakland's biggest enemy but it won't take Billy Beane too long to recognize that and swing a deal for a guy like Matt Kemp of the Dodgers or Prince Fielder of the Brewers. Cahill, Anderson, and Gonzalez are All-Stars in the making and guys like Braden and Brandon McCarthy(another guy having an excellent spring) are capable of putting together a couple good stretches as well.
2. The Yankees will stumble in the first month or two, and the press will be pressuring Brian Cashman to make a deal for Felix Hernandez. Smart money is on King Felix being a Yankee by this time next season. The Mariners can say they have no intention of keeping him but, with Seattle going nowhere, whose to say they'd balk at a desperation offer from New York. If the Carmelo Anthony trade has taught us anything, it's that New York fans and media can have a huge impact on a team getting itchy to pull the trigger on a blockbuster. The Yankees don't have a proven ace beyond C.C. Sabathia and the drool accumilating in the seats of the new Yankee Stadium over a CC-King Felix one-two would potentially soak Cashman's offices until a deal is made. I can't see Seattle making that deal this season but if the M's go in the tank again like they did last year, what's keeping them from having a fire sale?
3. Offensively, the Baltimore Orioles will be one of the most exciting teams in baseball. With the additions of Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, Baltimore has quietly built itself a sneaky good collection of hitters. With the exception of oft-injured second baseman Brian Roberts, every member of the O's lineup has the potential to hit at least 15 bombs this season. Bad Vlad may be aging but he proved last year he can still rake in the DH spot. Reynolds will hit somewhere in the low .200s but he'll provide a few bombs when he does connect on pitches. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are ready to take the next step and C Matt Weiters won't be that far behind. Helping the lineup's cause will be the fact that the rotation in Baltimore is terrible. With the O's constantly in a slugfest, we might be in for a long season of 10-9 slugfests. Given the lack of motivation for fans to go to Camden Yards in recent years, that may be a reason to go out to the ballpark.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies - The offseason hype has jinxed the Phils already with All-Star 2B set to miss a good bit of the early part of the season with knee troubles and closer Brad Lidge also expected to sit the first 6 weeks due to injury. Those would be huge blows to an ordinary team but not one that possesses the best rotation in baseball since the mid-90's Braves. A rotation of Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as well as proven hurlers like former World Series MVP Cole Hamels and the remarkably consistant Roy Oswalt is such an embarrassment of riches from a pitching standpoint, it hardly seems fair. Lidge will be missed in the 9th inning but Jose Contreras has filled in admirably in the past that the panic button can remain out of reach. As for the lineup, Utley's absence will be felt. SS Jimmy Rollins has shown signs of decline and there isn't really anyone else to protect big 1B Ryan Howard with Jayson Werth in Washington and Raul Ibanez all but washed up. The question will be whether Philly can remain patient enough in holding Utley back if the team struggles to keep Atlanta at bay early on. Another anticipated return besides Utley's will be the eventual call-up of highly touted prospect Domonic Brown. Brown struggled last season in a brief stint in the majors last year and injuries and a poor spring led the Phillies to go with Ben Francisco in right field over Brown but it is only a matter of time before Brown is ready to bust loose. The Phillies have the advantage of not having much in the division beyond Atlanta to worry about. The team will struggle to find itself early on but, once Utley returns, the combination of a dominant pitching staff and a balanced lineup will have the Phillies running away with the East by August. The only problems facing the Phillies will be whether it succumbs to the pressure of its own hype.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers - I'm all in on the Brewers this year. Eventhough they play in a glorified Little League ballpark in Miller Park, the Brew Crew has finally put together the best 1-2 punch in the rotation since Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. When healthy, Zach Grienke will be giving the boys in Philly a run for the Cy Young and, in his absence, Yovani Gallardo will be offering up his own shades of brilliance. Starter Shaun Marcum, also injured, will bolster the rotation when he returns as well. The bullpen is a bit sketchy with unproven closer John Axford but the hope is that this lineup won't have Milwaukee in too many close games. Even with All-Star OF Corey Hart starting the season on the DL, the lineup should still ring bells. Prince Fielder will be staring at dollar signs the way he stares at pork chops coming into his walk year and he'll be backed by fellow potential MVP candidate, LF Ryan Braun. 3B Casey McGehee, who broke out last year, will also give the lineup a boost in Hart's absence. The Brewers also made a move for some much needed speed at the top of the order. Former National Nyjer Morgan will platoon with fellow speedster Carlos Gomez to give Milwaukee a stolen base threat leading off. Injuries have Milwaukee behind the 8-ball early. Grienke and Marcum could miss at least the first month. Hart will miss almost as much, but when the team is whole, they possess the best balance to take over the division. If the team decides to hang on to Fielder, they'll be even more deadly come playoff time.
NL West: Colorado Rockies - The NL West seems to always come down to who is hottest in the last month. The San Diego Padres led the West for most of 2010 but the San Francisco Giants stole it from the Pods and inevitably won it all. The Rockies are projected to sit behind the defending champions in many magazines but they have something the Giants don't: a legitimate hitter in the middle of the order. If he can stay healthy, SS Troy Tulowitzki is an MVP candidate. Tulo has a great combination of power and speed and 40-40 isn't out of his realm IF he can stay in tact. For all his talents, Tulo has the body of Mr. Glass. He's played more than 125 games twice in his career. Another young star in this lineup is last year's breakout star Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo his .336 with 34 homers, 114 RBI and 26 stolen bases. He and Tulo give Colorado a hell of a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup. Beyond that dynamic duo, there's steady vet Todd Helton, speedy Dexter Fowler and a couple of capable bats in 2B Jose Lopez and C Chris Iannetta. Another name that I find intriguing on the Rockies' roster: former MVP Jason Giambi. Giambi may be washed up and his path will be blocked by another dinosaur in Helton but the combo of his pop and the thin Colorado air makes him at least somewhat dangerous in a pinch hit scenario. Of course, big offensive numbers have always come natural in Coors Field. The key for the Rockies will be pitching. For Colorado to take this division, ace Ubaldo Jiminez needs to play like the first half Cy Young favorite he was last year and less like the guy who won just four games after the All-Star break. The Rockies will also need young arms like Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel and Jhoulys Chacin(currently injured) to step up as well. Chacin has the best chance to break out once he comes off the DL. Just 23, Chacin finished with a disappointing 9-12 record last year but still managed to keep his ERA under 4 in a proven hitter's park. The Rockies won't be able to match arms with the Giants. They'll have to hope that their young bats can stay healthy and outmash a more dominant rotation. History has proven that the West is seldom won by the favorite and more by the team with the potential to get hot late. That very well could be Colorado.
NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants - The Giants' rotation is too stacked to keep the defending champs out of the postseason. Two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is determined not to fade down the stretch like he did last season. Behind him, there's Matt Cain, who could be in the running for his own Cy Young award with a little help from the bats this year. Madison Bumgarner has a ton a hype for a 21-year old with no real track record and Jonathan Sanchez is a steady innings eater in the middle of the staff. Rounding out the rotation is overpaid former Cy Young winner Barry Zito. Zito hasn't had a season of note since leaving Oakland but if he can get his famous curve back to what it was early in his career, he's as good a #5 starter as there is in the league. The problem, as mentioned before, is the lack of a proven bat. 1B Aubrey Huff hit .290, drove in 86 and dropped 26 bombs but he's hardly someone pitchers fear and there's no protection around Huff to keep teams from pitching around him. The "Kung Fu Panda", 3B Pablo Sandoval, dropped 40 pounds in hopes of getting back to his 2009 form but it remains to be seen whether he can do it. C Buster Posey lived up to the hype last season but, he too, has to prove he's not a fluke. Beyond that, there's World Series hero David Ross, who came out of nowhere to be San Fran's unsung hero. The Giants will also try to resurrect the corpse of Miguel Tejada at shortstop. The face of the franchise, however, is closer Brian Wilson. Eventhough he'll start the season on the DL, Wilson has made himself a household name with his trademark beard and outstanding charisma. Wilson is the big name on one of the best bullpens in baseball and his return shortens ball games for opponents already facing a tough starting rotation. The heat is on San Francisco to not fall asleep at the wheel as the defending champions. Pitching-wise, they are the NL's only hope to keep Philly out of the series. The key is continued development in their young stars like Posey and Sandoval and getting some production from aging vets like Huff and Tejada. The division has gotten a lot better around them and, most importantly, the Giants won't be able to sneak up on teams like they did last year. The hunters are now the hunted and it's fight or flight time.
NL Team on the Rise: Florida Marlins - Much like the A's, the Marlins are a young team with good young pitching. Josh Johnson is a dark horse for the Cy Young. Ricky Nolasco is a capable starter. Javy Vazquez, while no where near young, has had his best seasons while pitching in the National League, and Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad are adequate at the back of the rotation. The Marlins also have a nice complement of young hitters. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball with amazing speed and power. Chris Coghlan is a former Rookie of the Year. Gaby Sanchez has power at first base. The guy with the most potential, and somebody who will be talking about further later on, is OF Mike Stanton. Stanton has amazing raw power, which he showcased last season in hitting 22 homers last year. In Year 2, he'll need to improve on his .259 average from last season and prove he can be a legit power threat for a full season. The Marlins' growth will be stunted by an equally young and talented Braves team and a perenially loaded Phillies team in the East but they are growing and they are bad stretch by either Atlanta or Philly from being right back in the mix.
NL Team on the Decline: St. Louis Cardinals - The New York Mets being in decline goes without saying and it's not even funny to joke about them anymore. They're poorly managed, poorly run, overpaid and oft-injured. We get it. They're the New Jersey Nets of baseball. St. Louis, meanwhile, is headed on its own downward spiral and not just this season. Adam Wainwright will miss all of this season while undergoing Tommy John surgery but, even when he comes back, he and fellow ace Chris Carpenter are far too much of an injury risk to be relied upon to carry the team's pitching staff. Then, there's the Albert Pujols fiasco. Now, I don't think "The Terminator" is leaving The Lou but you have to be a little worried about him being a free agent at the end of the season, don't you? If Pujols leaves the Cardinals, you might as well kiss baseball in Nellyville goodbye. Beyond being the best player in the sport, there's nobody else in the farm system that registers a blip of excitement. Is Colby Rasmus doing anything for you, Cards fans? Getting all warm and fuzzy over Skip Schumaker, are you? Even if Pujols stays, he'll be 31 and probably vastly overpaid even for someone with his resume. Alex Rodriguez was the best player in baseball both times he got his big contract, and he deserved about $100 million less both times. If Pujols is getting $30 mil a year, then the Cards are getting hosed and that's your best case scenario if you're a Cards fan right now.
2011 NL Breakout Player: Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins - For the next decade, Stanton vs. Jason Heyward battling for home run titles, MVPs and division titles will be the most exciting matchup between young potential greats at one position since A-Rod vs. Jeter vs. Nomar back in the 90's. With more experience, Stanton will get his average up and become a sure-shot 30+ homer beast for the next decade. Last year's 22 homer campaign was just a taste. This year, he makes a name for himself.
Three Fearless National League Predicitons:
1. The Dodgers will trade Matt Kemp. Having covered the Dodgers for most of last season, I can tell you there wasn't much to be excited about last year....and that's when they had Manny Ramirez in the lineup. Now, Man-Ram is gone and the face of the franchise is a disenchanted centerfielder who spent last year getting called out by his GM and manager. Kemp has five-tool talent and a one-tool brain. He's skilled but lacks hustle and focus. The Dodgers have holes in quite a few places and they could always lock down some more pitching since Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are #2 starters at best. If the Dodgers start off slow, don't be shocked if Kemp's name surfaces on the trade block. Besides, Kemp is coming off a breakup with Rihanna, and we all saw the effects that had on her LAST boyfriend.
2. Chipper Jones will pull a Ken Griffey Jr. and retire midseason. I've been a Braves fan for almost 20 years and Chipper Jones is one of my four or five favorite players of all-time, but the reality is he's washed up. It's over. I don't care how great he's been in spring training. At the end of the day, those knees have seen their better days and that body is just not going to hold up the whole season. Chipper has enough pride to not end on a bad note but also has enough common sense to not go out there and stink up the ballpark just for the sake of a proper farewell tour.
3. Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen will be the poor man's Tulo and CarGo. Look, the safest bet in baseball is the Pittsburgh Pirates finishing with another losing season. We all know they suck. They have no pitching and any half decent guy that emerges ends up getting dealt elsewhere. Still, if Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen can remain in Pittsburgh, they'll bring a slight bit of excitement to PNC Park residents. McCutchen is a five-tool, speed/power guy similar to Carlos Gonzalez. He put up a decent season last year and now, much like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward, he's ready to take it another step with more at bats. Alvarez has been slated to hit cleanup for the Bucs and he has the type of raw power to put up some solid numbers for years to come. Watching the Pirates won't be pretty this season, but at least TiVo the at-bats of these two kids before they inevitably get sent to the Yankees.
HANDING OUT HARDWARE
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - It's pretty simple math. If he was crushing the ball in San Diego, he's bound to put up big numbers in a small ballpark in Beantown.
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, SP, Yankees - Cliff Lee and Zach Grienke going to NL a year after Roy Halladay left the AL just thins the competition for C.C., who should have won it last year. The only one standing in Sabathia's way is King Felix and there's no way writers give the award to a pitcher on a losing team two years in a row. Sabathia wins 20, becomes the lone bright spot for the Yankees' pitching staff and shines his Cy Young award while watching the playoffs at home.
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - Obviously, Pujols in a contract year makes him the huge favorite but he's the favorite every year. Joey Votto beat out Pujols last year by putting up good numbers in a hitter's park for a division winner. The same will be true for Tulo, who will add some stolen bases as he flirts with 40-40 this season.
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, P, Phillies - I know, I know, it's boring but like Ric Flair once said "To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" and who's beating out Halladay this year?
NLCS: Phillies over Brewers in 6 - Grienke vs Halladay becomes one for the ages but inevitably the Phils' depth in the rotation and proven bullpen outlasts the Brew Crew.
ALCS: Red Sox over Angels in 5 - BoSox are far too talented and balanced this year. If they can get by Chicago, nobody else stands a chance.
World Series: Phillies over Red Sox in 7 - Papelbon implodes as Halladay takes home the World Series MVP. Utley hobbles his way through seven games doing his best Kirk Gibson impression and sportswriters spend the next six months wondering if this Phils' pitching staff is the best we ever seen.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East: Boston Red Sox - Injuries kept this BoSox team from being in the playoffs last year. Dustin Pedroia went down. Jacoby Ellsbury, as usual, went down. Kevin Youkilis got hurt. Josh Beckett hurt his back. All of those guys are back and healthy and they brought some heavy hitters with them. Left fielder Carl Crawford brings speed at the top of the lineup that Boston hasn't had in quite some time(don't try to sell me on CoCo Crisp or Ellsbury. Those guys are Bengie Molina compared to Crawford's wheels). Joining Crawford is slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who is just the young, powerful lefty bat this team has craved for years. If A-Gon was putting up big numbers in spacious Petco Park, then he's bound to rake at Fenway. Crawford and Gonzalez also bring solid glove work to Boston, making an already good defensive team great. As for the rotation, it says something about your depth when a former World Series MVP like Josh Beckett is your #4 starter. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were solid in breakout seasons last year, while vets John Lackey and Diasuke Matsuzaka need to step it up. Beckett himself has been getting shelled worse than Libya this spring and the Sox are going to need him to bounce back after a lackluster, injury-riddled 2010 campaign. In the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon has shared Beckett's agony of getting beat up this spring. In a contract year, Papelbon could be on the trading block with young reliever Daniel Bard waiting in the wings. If this team is healthy, they should run away with the East and have to be the favorites in the American League. The pitching is solid and an already deep lineup now has two new members who offer up premiums by way of speed(Crawford) and a sweet lefty stroke(Gonzalez). The only thing standing in this team's way is themselves.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins - The AL Central is going to be the tightest race in the American League, if not all of baseball, because it's legitimately three teams deep. Chicago may be the most balanced in the entire division and Detroit is a solid dark horse with the addition of slugger Victor Martinez. So, why Minnesota? For one, Minnesota has run roughshod on Chicago. Since 2009, the Twins are 25-11 against the White Sox. Second, the lineup is pretty scary 3 thru 7 provided everyone's healthy. Former AL MVP catcher Joe Mauer is the best pure hitter in the league and, unlike last year, comes into this season healthy from the get-go. Behind him is another former MVP in Justin Morneau, who is trying to come back from a concussion that derailed what looked like another MVP calibur season last year. Left fielder Delmon Young picked up some of the slack in Morneau's absence(.298, 21 HR, 112 RBI) and the former #1 overall pick will have better pitches to hit with Morneau in front of him. DH Jason Kubel and RF Michael Cuddyer are also steady bats that will give opposing pitchers fits. Speaking of pitching, there lies the Twins' biggest question mark. The team will rely on Carl Pavano to once again be a workhorse at the top of the rotation(17-11, 7 complete games, 2 shutouts, 3.75 ERA). Pavano hadn't had a season quite like 2010 since his last season with the Florida Marlins in 2004(both seasons were contract years. I'm gonna say that isn't a coincidence) and might be a risk to be relied upon as the team's ace. Youngster Francisco Liriano bounced back last year after a couple rocky seasons following Tommy John surgery. Liriano struck out 201 batters and went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 2010. Beyond those two, however, things get merky. Scott Baker has proven to be a decent bottom of the rotation starter but Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing don't quite have the track record of being reliable hurlers. The bullpen also has its share of instability. The Twins lost quite a bit in free agency with relievers such as Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch skipping town for greener pastures. Minnesota does still have former Pirates/Nationals closer Matt Capps, who has been lights out this spring. Capps will be crucial as the team tries to work former All-Star closer Joe Nathan back into his role as the 9th inning stopper after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The Twins are the shakiest of any of my division picks but their calling card over the years has been outhustling teams with a solid defense, playing smart baseball, and taking advantage of their always deep farm system. While the team has a lot of unproven young talent, the key words are still "young talent". Anyone can emerge from this young organization and given their track record in the division, they'll be tough to put away in the fall.
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Cliff Lee leaving Texas takes the Rangers down a few notches, even with that prolific offense and the A's and Mariners may be a year or two away from contention. The Angels have a good rotation of proven starters. Frontline starters Dan Haren and Jered Weaver will be in the running for the Cy Young and while the bottom three of Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro are a bit shaky, all three have put together decent seasons in the not-so-distant past. The lineup added yet another overpriced bat in the outfield via a trade for former Blue Jays All-Star centerfielder Vernon Wells. Wells has battled injuries throughout his career but had a good 2010 with Toronto last year(.273, 31 HR, 88 RBI). The lineup will also get a jolt with the inevitable return of 1B Kendrys Morales, who was off to a torrant start last year before breaking his leg, Bill Gramatica-style, celebrating after a home run. Morales has been slow to recover from his leg injury, but should rejoin the team by the end of April, barring a setback. Morales and Wells add punch to a lineup that already had slick-fielding outfielder Torii Hunter and old-but-steady DH Bobby Abreu. The veteran presence on this Angels team is what gives them the slight edge over the more offensively-appeasing Rangers and the still-green A's. The bullpen is a little suspect with hard-throwing-but-occassionally wild closer Fernando Rodney at the back end but the 1-2 of Haren and Weaver along with the return of Morales and the addition of Wells should be enough to give the Angels the division.
AL Wild Card: Chicago White Sox - You could probably flip a coin between the White Sox and Twins for the AL Central crown but I think that race will be tight enough that the loser will still make the playoffs. That may make you cringe if you're a Yankees fan but I'll get to why there will be no postseason in the Bronx later. The word that best describes Ozzie Guillen's team is "balanced". The lineup leads off with stolen base king Juan Pierre and then becomes significantly more dangerous as you deeper into the middle of the order. 2B Gordon Beckham was once a top prospect who could still emerge and the 3-4-5-6 of newly acquired bopper Adam Dunn, steady vet Paul Konerko, and former breakout star OFs Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin. With Dunn moving to the DH spot he was born to play, he's a lock for 40 homers and around 200 strikeouts. Konerko, meanwhile, is coming off his best season since 2005(.312, 39 HR, 111 RBI) and both Quentin and Rios are coming off 20-homer campaigns. Rios adds another dynamic with his speed, having stolen at least 20 bases the last three seasons including 30+ in 2010 and 2008. The depth of the rotation will depend on the health of former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Peavy suffered a devastating arm injury last season and is set to miss at least all of April as he tries to comeback. Still, Peavy's penciled in as their fifth starter when he returns. Mark Buehrle returns yet again as the team's ace and youngster John Danks is waiting in the wings as the White Sox's future at the top of the rotation. Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson have been inconsistant throughout their careers but still possess a ton of potential. Another young arm with potential is new closer Matt Thornton. Thornton takes over for Bobby Jenks and he'll be feeling the warm breath of prospect Chris Sale breathing down his neck. If Thornton and Sale can carry the load late in games, the White Sox will be tough to match run for run with the depth in their rotation and the power in the middle of the lineup.
AL Team on the Rise: Oakland A's - GM Billy Beane always seems to replace good young arms with more good young arms. First, it was the Big Three of Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. Then, you had guys like Rich Harden and Dan Haren. Now, you have a new Big Three in young hurlers Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez(not to mention Dallas Braden, who threw a perfect game last season). Anderson was off to a solid start before injuries forced him to pump the breaks. Meanwhile, Cahill and Gonzalez showed flashes of being dominant young starters. What holds the A's back, however, is the lack of proven bats in the lineup. The most feared hitter on this A's team is washed-up DH Hideki Matsui and, after him, you have journeyman Josh Willingham. Gone are the days of Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye and Eric Chavez knocking the cover off the ball. The team needs to find a legit bat to stuff in the middle of the order and give these young arms some run support. Given Beane's savvy, that bat could be coming sooner rather than later.
AL Team on the Decline: New York Yankees - The Yankees' lineup is stacked like it's always been. It's also pretty damn old. Second baseman Robinson Cano will compete for MVPs and batting titles throughout his career but, beyond him and 1B Mark Teixeira, there aren't any young bats to get excited about. A-Rod will put together another 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season but he's pushing 40. Derek Jeter has already shown signs of decline with his arm and his glove and he was never that powerful of a hitter to begin with. Jorge Posada has been pushed to DH because of his deteriorating skills behind the plate and his replacement, Russell Martin, is a brittle washout who is keeping the seat warm for prospect Jesus Montero. The lineup isn't my concern for the boys in pinstripes. The rotation has to concern you as a Yankees fan. Beyond C.C. Sabathia(who should have won the Cy Young last year), who do you have confidence in in this rotation? A.J. Burnett saves his best work for contract years. Phil Hughes was solid last season but he'll be starting just his second full season as a starter. Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia? Yikes. The bullpen will make up for a lot of the rotation's flaws. The Yanks' have the greatest closer of all-time in Mariano Rivera to shut the door in the 9th inning and he'll be set up by highly-paid flamethrower Rafael Soriano and once-promising starter-now-reliever Joba Chamberlain. Still. we know how quick the panic starts in the Bronx, especially if the hated Red Sox jump out to a hot start. If the Yankees can't get quality starts from guys not named C.C., expect the back pages to call for Joe Girardi's head and a certian young ace who stole the Cy from C.C. last season.
AL Breakout Player of 2010: Gio Gonzalez, P, Oakland A's - Trevor Cahill won 18 games for the A's last year. Brett Anderson was in All-Star form before getting hurt and Dallas Braden famously threw a perfecto on Mother's Day. Those guys aren't quite household names but a big year out of any one of them shouldn't shock you. Neither should a breakout season from Gonzalez, who went 15-9 with a 3.23 ERA, striking out 171 batters in a little over 200 innings last year. Hitters are hitting .170 against Gonzo in spring training so far this season and he won't find too many tough pitching matchups as the A's fourth starter. Cy Young contention might be a bit much but a season similar to Cahill's 2010 (18-8, 2.97, 118 K's) seems about right.
Three Fearless AL Predictions
1. Sticking with the A's rotation, the top four starters for Oakland will all win at least 13 games this season. As mentioned earlier, run support will be Oakland's biggest enemy but it won't take Billy Beane too long to recognize that and swing a deal for a guy like Matt Kemp of the Dodgers or Prince Fielder of the Brewers. Cahill, Anderson, and Gonzalez are All-Stars in the making and guys like Braden and Brandon McCarthy(another guy having an excellent spring) are capable of putting together a couple good stretches as well.
2. The Yankees will stumble in the first month or two, and the press will be pressuring Brian Cashman to make a deal for Felix Hernandez. Smart money is on King Felix being a Yankee by this time next season. The Mariners can say they have no intention of keeping him but, with Seattle going nowhere, whose to say they'd balk at a desperation offer from New York. If the Carmelo Anthony trade has taught us anything, it's that New York fans and media can have a huge impact on a team getting itchy to pull the trigger on a blockbuster. The Yankees don't have a proven ace beyond C.C. Sabathia and the drool accumilating in the seats of the new Yankee Stadium over a CC-King Felix one-two would potentially soak Cashman's offices until a deal is made. I can't see Seattle making that deal this season but if the M's go in the tank again like they did last year, what's keeping them from having a fire sale?
3. Offensively, the Baltimore Orioles will be one of the most exciting teams in baseball. With the additions of Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, Baltimore has quietly built itself a sneaky good collection of hitters. With the exception of oft-injured second baseman Brian Roberts, every member of the O's lineup has the potential to hit at least 15 bombs this season. Bad Vlad may be aging but he proved last year he can still rake in the DH spot. Reynolds will hit somewhere in the low .200s but he'll provide a few bombs when he does connect on pitches. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are ready to take the next step and C Matt Weiters won't be that far behind. Helping the lineup's cause will be the fact that the rotation in Baltimore is terrible. With the O's constantly in a slugfest, we might be in for a long season of 10-9 slugfests. Given the lack of motivation for fans to go to Camden Yards in recent years, that may be a reason to go out to the ballpark.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies - The offseason hype has jinxed the Phils already with All-Star 2B set to miss a good bit of the early part of the season with knee troubles and closer Brad Lidge also expected to sit the first 6 weeks due to injury. Those would be huge blows to an ordinary team but not one that possesses the best rotation in baseball since the mid-90's Braves. A rotation of Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as well as proven hurlers like former World Series MVP Cole Hamels and the remarkably consistant Roy Oswalt is such an embarrassment of riches from a pitching standpoint, it hardly seems fair. Lidge will be missed in the 9th inning but Jose Contreras has filled in admirably in the past that the panic button can remain out of reach. As for the lineup, Utley's absence will be felt. SS Jimmy Rollins has shown signs of decline and there isn't really anyone else to protect big 1B Ryan Howard with Jayson Werth in Washington and Raul Ibanez all but washed up. The question will be whether Philly can remain patient enough in holding Utley back if the team struggles to keep Atlanta at bay early on. Another anticipated return besides Utley's will be the eventual call-up of highly touted prospect Domonic Brown. Brown struggled last season in a brief stint in the majors last year and injuries and a poor spring led the Phillies to go with Ben Francisco in right field over Brown but it is only a matter of time before Brown is ready to bust loose. The Phillies have the advantage of not having much in the division beyond Atlanta to worry about. The team will struggle to find itself early on but, once Utley returns, the combination of a dominant pitching staff and a balanced lineup will have the Phillies running away with the East by August. The only problems facing the Phillies will be whether it succumbs to the pressure of its own hype.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers - I'm all in on the Brewers this year. Eventhough they play in a glorified Little League ballpark in Miller Park, the Brew Crew has finally put together the best 1-2 punch in the rotation since Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. When healthy, Zach Grienke will be giving the boys in Philly a run for the Cy Young and, in his absence, Yovani Gallardo will be offering up his own shades of brilliance. Starter Shaun Marcum, also injured, will bolster the rotation when he returns as well. The bullpen is a bit sketchy with unproven closer John Axford but the hope is that this lineup won't have Milwaukee in too many close games. Even with All-Star OF Corey Hart starting the season on the DL, the lineup should still ring bells. Prince Fielder will be staring at dollar signs the way he stares at pork chops coming into his walk year and he'll be backed by fellow potential MVP candidate, LF Ryan Braun. 3B Casey McGehee, who broke out last year, will also give the lineup a boost in Hart's absence. The Brewers also made a move for some much needed speed at the top of the order. Former National Nyjer Morgan will platoon with fellow speedster Carlos Gomez to give Milwaukee a stolen base threat leading off. Injuries have Milwaukee behind the 8-ball early. Grienke and Marcum could miss at least the first month. Hart will miss almost as much, but when the team is whole, they possess the best balance to take over the division. If the team decides to hang on to Fielder, they'll be even more deadly come playoff time.
NL West: Colorado Rockies - The NL West seems to always come down to who is hottest in the last month. The San Diego Padres led the West for most of 2010 but the San Francisco Giants stole it from the Pods and inevitably won it all. The Rockies are projected to sit behind the defending champions in many magazines but they have something the Giants don't: a legitimate hitter in the middle of the order. If he can stay healthy, SS Troy Tulowitzki is an MVP candidate. Tulo has a great combination of power and speed and 40-40 isn't out of his realm IF he can stay in tact. For all his talents, Tulo has the body of Mr. Glass. He's played more than 125 games twice in his career. Another young star in this lineup is last year's breakout star Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo his .336 with 34 homers, 114 RBI and 26 stolen bases. He and Tulo give Colorado a hell of a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup. Beyond that dynamic duo, there's steady vet Todd Helton, speedy Dexter Fowler and a couple of capable bats in 2B Jose Lopez and C Chris Iannetta. Another name that I find intriguing on the Rockies' roster: former MVP Jason Giambi. Giambi may be washed up and his path will be blocked by another dinosaur in Helton but the combo of his pop and the thin Colorado air makes him at least somewhat dangerous in a pinch hit scenario. Of course, big offensive numbers have always come natural in Coors Field. The key for the Rockies will be pitching. For Colorado to take this division, ace Ubaldo Jiminez needs to play like the first half Cy Young favorite he was last year and less like the guy who won just four games after the All-Star break. The Rockies will also need young arms like Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel and Jhoulys Chacin(currently injured) to step up as well. Chacin has the best chance to break out once he comes off the DL. Just 23, Chacin finished with a disappointing 9-12 record last year but still managed to keep his ERA under 4 in a proven hitter's park. The Rockies won't be able to match arms with the Giants. They'll have to hope that their young bats can stay healthy and outmash a more dominant rotation. History has proven that the West is seldom won by the favorite and more by the team with the potential to get hot late. That very well could be Colorado.
NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants - The Giants' rotation is too stacked to keep the defending champs out of the postseason. Two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is determined not to fade down the stretch like he did last season. Behind him, there's Matt Cain, who could be in the running for his own Cy Young award with a little help from the bats this year. Madison Bumgarner has a ton a hype for a 21-year old with no real track record and Jonathan Sanchez is a steady innings eater in the middle of the staff. Rounding out the rotation is overpaid former Cy Young winner Barry Zito. Zito hasn't had a season of note since leaving Oakland but if he can get his famous curve back to what it was early in his career, he's as good a #5 starter as there is in the league. The problem, as mentioned before, is the lack of a proven bat. 1B Aubrey Huff hit .290, drove in 86 and dropped 26 bombs but he's hardly someone pitchers fear and there's no protection around Huff to keep teams from pitching around him. The "Kung Fu Panda", 3B Pablo Sandoval, dropped 40 pounds in hopes of getting back to his 2009 form but it remains to be seen whether he can do it. C Buster Posey lived up to the hype last season but, he too, has to prove he's not a fluke. Beyond that, there's World Series hero David Ross, who came out of nowhere to be San Fran's unsung hero. The Giants will also try to resurrect the corpse of Miguel Tejada at shortstop. The face of the franchise, however, is closer Brian Wilson. Eventhough he'll start the season on the DL, Wilson has made himself a household name with his trademark beard and outstanding charisma. Wilson is the big name on one of the best bullpens in baseball and his return shortens ball games for opponents already facing a tough starting rotation. The heat is on San Francisco to not fall asleep at the wheel as the defending champions. Pitching-wise, they are the NL's only hope to keep Philly out of the series. The key is continued development in their young stars like Posey and Sandoval and getting some production from aging vets like Huff and Tejada. The division has gotten a lot better around them and, most importantly, the Giants won't be able to sneak up on teams like they did last year. The hunters are now the hunted and it's fight or flight time.
NL Team on the Rise: Florida Marlins - Much like the A's, the Marlins are a young team with good young pitching. Josh Johnson is a dark horse for the Cy Young. Ricky Nolasco is a capable starter. Javy Vazquez, while no where near young, has had his best seasons while pitching in the National League, and Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad are adequate at the back of the rotation. The Marlins also have a nice complement of young hitters. Hanley Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball with amazing speed and power. Chris Coghlan is a former Rookie of the Year. Gaby Sanchez has power at first base. The guy with the most potential, and somebody who will be talking about further later on, is OF Mike Stanton. Stanton has amazing raw power, which he showcased last season in hitting 22 homers last year. In Year 2, he'll need to improve on his .259 average from last season and prove he can be a legit power threat for a full season. The Marlins' growth will be stunted by an equally young and talented Braves team and a perenially loaded Phillies team in the East but they are growing and they are bad stretch by either Atlanta or Philly from being right back in the mix.
NL Team on the Decline: St. Louis Cardinals - The New York Mets being in decline goes without saying and it's not even funny to joke about them anymore. They're poorly managed, poorly run, overpaid and oft-injured. We get it. They're the New Jersey Nets of baseball. St. Louis, meanwhile, is headed on its own downward spiral and not just this season. Adam Wainwright will miss all of this season while undergoing Tommy John surgery but, even when he comes back, he and fellow ace Chris Carpenter are far too much of an injury risk to be relied upon to carry the team's pitching staff. Then, there's the Albert Pujols fiasco. Now, I don't think "The Terminator" is leaving The Lou but you have to be a little worried about him being a free agent at the end of the season, don't you? If Pujols leaves the Cardinals, you might as well kiss baseball in Nellyville goodbye. Beyond being the best player in the sport, there's nobody else in the farm system that registers a blip of excitement. Is Colby Rasmus doing anything for you, Cards fans? Getting all warm and fuzzy over Skip Schumaker, are you? Even if Pujols stays, he'll be 31 and probably vastly overpaid even for someone with his resume. Alex Rodriguez was the best player in baseball both times he got his big contract, and he deserved about $100 million less both times. If Pujols is getting $30 mil a year, then the Cards are getting hosed and that's your best case scenario if you're a Cards fan right now.
2011 NL Breakout Player: Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins - For the next decade, Stanton vs. Jason Heyward battling for home run titles, MVPs and division titles will be the most exciting matchup between young potential greats at one position since A-Rod vs. Jeter vs. Nomar back in the 90's. With more experience, Stanton will get his average up and become a sure-shot 30+ homer beast for the next decade. Last year's 22 homer campaign was just a taste. This year, he makes a name for himself.
Three Fearless National League Predicitons:
1. The Dodgers will trade Matt Kemp. Having covered the Dodgers for most of last season, I can tell you there wasn't much to be excited about last year....and that's when they had Manny Ramirez in the lineup. Now, Man-Ram is gone and the face of the franchise is a disenchanted centerfielder who spent last year getting called out by his GM and manager. Kemp has five-tool talent and a one-tool brain. He's skilled but lacks hustle and focus. The Dodgers have holes in quite a few places and they could always lock down some more pitching since Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are #2 starters at best. If the Dodgers start off slow, don't be shocked if Kemp's name surfaces on the trade block. Besides, Kemp is coming off a breakup with Rihanna, and we all saw the effects that had on her LAST boyfriend.
2. Chipper Jones will pull a Ken Griffey Jr. and retire midseason. I've been a Braves fan for almost 20 years and Chipper Jones is one of my four or five favorite players of all-time, but the reality is he's washed up. It's over. I don't care how great he's been in spring training. At the end of the day, those knees have seen their better days and that body is just not going to hold up the whole season. Chipper has enough pride to not end on a bad note but also has enough common sense to not go out there and stink up the ballpark just for the sake of a proper farewell tour.
3. Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen will be the poor man's Tulo and CarGo. Look, the safest bet in baseball is the Pittsburgh Pirates finishing with another losing season. We all know they suck. They have no pitching and any half decent guy that emerges ends up getting dealt elsewhere. Still, if Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen can remain in Pittsburgh, they'll bring a slight bit of excitement to PNC Park residents. McCutchen is a five-tool, speed/power guy similar to Carlos Gonzalez. He put up a decent season last year and now, much like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward, he's ready to take it another step with more at bats. Alvarez has been slated to hit cleanup for the Bucs and he has the type of raw power to put up some solid numbers for years to come. Watching the Pirates won't be pretty this season, but at least TiVo the at-bats of these two kids before they inevitably get sent to the Yankees.
HANDING OUT HARDWARE
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox - It's pretty simple math. If he was crushing the ball in San Diego, he's bound to put up big numbers in a small ballpark in Beantown.
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, SP, Yankees - Cliff Lee and Zach Grienke going to NL a year after Roy Halladay left the AL just thins the competition for C.C., who should have won it last year. The only one standing in Sabathia's way is King Felix and there's no way writers give the award to a pitcher on a losing team two years in a row. Sabathia wins 20, becomes the lone bright spot for the Yankees' pitching staff and shines his Cy Young award while watching the playoffs at home.
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - Obviously, Pujols in a contract year makes him the huge favorite but he's the favorite every year. Joey Votto beat out Pujols last year by putting up good numbers in a hitter's park for a division winner. The same will be true for Tulo, who will add some stolen bases as he flirts with 40-40 this season.
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, P, Phillies - I know, I know, it's boring but like Ric Flair once said "To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" and who's beating out Halladay this year?
NLCS: Phillies over Brewers in 6 - Grienke vs Halladay becomes one for the ages but inevitably the Phils' depth in the rotation and proven bullpen outlasts the Brew Crew.
ALCS: Red Sox over Angels in 5 - BoSox are far too talented and balanced this year. If they can get by Chicago, nobody else stands a chance.
World Series: Phillies over Red Sox in 7 - Papelbon implodes as Halladay takes home the World Series MVP. Utley hobbles his way through seven games doing his best Kirk Gibson impression and sportswriters spend the next six months wondering if this Phils' pitching staff is the best we ever seen.
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