Both of those trades set the table for what is going to be another free agency circus come the summer of 2012. With Carmelo signed, sealed and delivered to New York, his name gets crossed off the list as one of the key players of next summer(although his presence as a Knick does have a dramatic effect on next summer), and instead puts the spotlight on a couple of other guys who will be coveted over the next 18 months, be it through trade or free agency. Let's take a look at those men in question.
Dwight Howard(Center, Orlando Magic, free agent after next season)
Credentials: (25 years old, 2004 #1 overall pick, 2-time Defensive Player of the Year, 5-time All-Star, 3-time All-NBA First team, led the Magic to the 2009 NBA Finals)Where He Should Go: Washington Wizards - I was dead-set on Doomsday re-signing with Orlando before a coupe things occurred to me to change my mind:
1. My friend Carlos texted me gushing about the cap room the Wiz will have after buying out Mike Bibby, exchanging the horrendous Gilbert Arenas contract for the equally horrendous-yet-shorter Rashard Lewis contract, as well as the cost-cutting they did in deals to ship Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler last year.
2. The idea of a gentle giant like Howard subjecting himself to more years of Stan Van Gundy screaming in his ear to no avail. This Magic team has some talent on it but most of it is high-priced and overrated(see the aforementioned Arenas contract). Can you really see Howard convincing himself that he can win a championship with guys like Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas as his #'s 2 and 3? The acquisition of Agent Zero puts the Magic in cap hell because there aren't too many teams stupid enough to take on that contract a third time. Thus, Howard will be stuck trying to push knuckleheads like Arenas to play to a championship level while his face endures gallons of SVG's spit flying at it on a nightly basis. That sounds unappealing to me.
If Derrick Rose can be the leader in the clubhouse for an MVP in his third year and emerge as the best player on a scary Bulls team, what can we expect to see from John Wall(considered a bigger, stronger, possibly faster version of Rose) when he finally gets adjusted to the pros in a couple years? Beyond the bright future of Wall, the Wizards also have Jordan Crawford(an athletic guard who is probably best suited as a 6th man type but was still an absolute steal considering Washington only gave up Kirk Hinrich's rotting carcass to get him), a potential high lottery pick(Both Carlos and I are hitching our wagons to the hope that its Ohio State big man Jared Sullinger), and what's left of Lewis. Isn't a Howard-Wall-Sullinger-Crawford-Lewis nucleus much more formidable than Howard's current band of misfits? Rose was always going to be a star, but Chicago surrounding him with guys like Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer took him to another level. This could be that same blueprint but a later model. The one thing all these proposed Big Threes(Miami, Boston, New York) lack is the ability to stop a game-changing point guard and a dominant big man......Howard and Wall together fit both of those requirements.
Where He WILL Go: Los Angeles Lakers - My retort to Carlos in his campaign to bring D-12 to the nation's capital is that Howard following Shaq's path and going from Orlando to the Lakers makes more sense. Truth be told, it does. With all of the West's best young stars traveling to the East, the talent pool has been diminished on the Left Coast. On top of that, when have the Lakers ever NOT gotten what they've wanted when they've set their sights on someone. They probably could have had 'Melo if they were more aggressive and, in the last decade and a half, they've managed to reel in guys like Shaq, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, and Pau Gasol. Howard's build and charisma makes him a natural fit as "The New Shaq Diesel" in Laker Land. The Lakers have been dying to move Andrew Bynum and you have to think, if Orlando was stupid enough to take on Gilbert, they're probably dumb enough to agree to take back Bynum and his Joe Namath knees when they realize that the alternative is Howard leaving and the Magic ending up with nothing(much like they did with Shaq).
Do I WANT to see Howard in L.A.? Of course not, but Howard's situation now mirrors that of LeBron James' in the final years in Cleveland. After going to the Finals early in his career and being left with a bitter taste, James(like Howard) kept getting thwarted in his attempt to win a ring because of an inferior supporting cast and, more and more, James realized that there was nobody else in that locker room who can help him shoulder the load. James inevitably left Cleveland to team up with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami and Howard will eventually realize the same thing and tag team with what's left of Kobe Bryant and re-form the Twin Towers with Pau Gasol in Los Angeles.
Steve Nash(Point Guard, Phoenix Suns, free agent after next season)
Credentials: (37 years old, 2-time NBA MVP, 7-time All-Star, 3-time All-NBA First Team)
Credentials: (26 years old, 2-time NBA All-Star)
Where he SHOULD go: New York Knicks - The window for Nash to even make a run at an NBA title(let alone win one) is becoming razor thin because of his advanced age and the fact that the Suns seem to be all too willing to tear the team around him apart piece by piece. Obviously, Nash would be no use to New York in 2012 where he'll be pushing 39. So, Nash is going to have to go out of character and demand his freedom from the Phoenix prison he finds himself in. The Knicks don't have much to offer after giving up quite a bit for 'Melo but the price tag for Nash won't be anywhere near the price of, say, a Chris Paul if New York wants it's point guard a year early. The Suns owe it to Nash to allow him to jump ship and not haggle over minor details. The Suns could get back a package of Chauncey Billups(eventhough Phoenix already has Nash's heir apparent in the recently acquired Aaron Brooks) and perhaps Landry Fields. That may irritate some Knicks fans, who already think they gave up a king's ransom for Anthony. Still, no point guard runs D'Antoni's offense better than Nash and a fringe starter like Fields is worth sacrificing for a former 2-time MVP reuniting with the coach that made him a Hall of Famer and who will be playing with an enormous chip on his shoulder.
Where he WILL go: Phoenix Suns - Phoenix knows that Nash's floppy hair and playmaking acumen is what puts asses in seats and they aren't going to deal him unless Nash forces their hand. It would be out of Nash's character to demand out eventhough it would be in his best interest. So, my gut tells me he plays out the next season and a half with the team that initially drafted him and then rides off into the sunset as the greatest player of this era to never see the NBA Finals.
Now, if Aaron Brooks gives the team hope early on that he could be their guy, maybe Phoenix moves Nash in an effort to get something to build the team around Brooks. Regardless, Nash needs to ask for a way out of Phoenix. Unfortunately, I don't think he has that in him.
Chris Paul(point guard, New Orleans Hornets)
Credentials: (25 years old, 2006 NBA Rookie of the Year, 4-time NBA All-Star, All-NBA 1st team in 2008, All-Defensive team in 2009)
Where he SHOULD go: Oklahoma City Thunder - As a longtime Hornets fan, it's tough to write about the latest great Hornets star spending his prime somewhere else but, more and more, this is looking like a reality. Why would CP3 stay in New Orleans at this point when New York, L.A., and other contenders will be coming at him hard next summer? The Hornets are owned by the league right now, half of the owners want them contracted, and there's no signs that this team can be a contender anytime soon even after the promising start this year.
So, why OKC when they already have Russell Westbrook? Well, this is more a personal preference than a logical decision. If Paul scoots to New York after next summer, it's the end of basketball in New Orleans. There'll be no way to replace him and there's nobody else on the roster that would compel someone to buy a ticket. However, if the Hornets agree to trade with Oklahoma City and get back, say, Westbrook, Cole Aldrich and Thabo Sefolosha, then the Hornets can avoid contraction and the Thunder would have upgraded at the point guard position and moved themselves up another notch in the West. With so many teams in the West aging rapidly, the Thunder are poised to be the young kings of the conference. Yes, they can probably make a Finals run this season with this group(I even picked them to win the NBA championship this year back in October. Thunder over Bulls in 6. Check Twitter. It happened.). However, Paul can't help but see Nash and wonder if he's heading in that direction. He's the best point guard in the league and he's fading away on a team too cheap to build a legit contender around him. The Hornets peaked as a 2 seed in the West a couple years ago. By going to Oklahoma City, he teams up with Kevin Durant and the Thunder a 1-2 punch that will be incomparable in the West(unless another big name goes to the Lakers). Paul-Durant-Harden-Perkins-Ibaka......that's a superior starting five in what will probably be a weaker conference by 2012 than if Paul were to become a part of the Anthony-Amare Knicks next summer. Yes, it's not a major market, but not everyone is enthralled by that. Durant chose to stay in Oklahoma. Paul's been relatively content in New Orleans. It sounds far-fetched but, if Paul really wants to go to a team on the rise that will contend for numerous titles, he'll bring his lightning-fast speed to the Thunder.
Where he WILL go: New York Knicks - Playing point guard in a Mike D'Antoni offense on a team with two of the top 15 guys in the NBA just seems like too appealing of a job for a young, title-hungry point guard. There's a small chance that Paul likes what he sees in New Orleans, the Hornets get new owners, and CP3 convinces them that they are one big player away from owning the West(which they very well may be if Paul and Emeka Okafor stay healthy). I just can't see Paul not looking at what he can do with 'Melo and Amare for the next six or seven years in a Eastern Conference that may also be up for grabs and turns that down to stay on a sinking ship in N.O.. The best case scenario for the Knicks is they get the Steve Nash rental until 2012, Nash makes the job mouth-watering to his successor(either Paul or Deron Williams), and they sign one of the two big PG free agents in the summer.
With Paul on the East coast, we get another half decade of Paul vs Rondo, Paul vs. D-Rose, Paul vs. John Wall, and Paul vs Deron Williams for more than two games a year. He'll bring solid defense to a Knicks team that doesn't have very much and, with his speed, scoring ability, and creativity, he'll run the point in Mike D's offense better than Nash ever did. In the process, I will be renouncing my 15 year run as a Hornets fan and start shopping for Knicks jerseys. Sorry, after Larry Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, Glen Rice, Eddie Jones, Anthony Mason, Kobe Bryant, and Baron Davis, I think drawing the line at a Chris Paul departure is understandable.
Deron Williams(Point Guard, New Jersey Nets)
Credentials: (26 years old, 2-time NBA All-Star)Where he SHOULD go: Indiana Pacers - Leaving New Jersey would make Deron Williams the most despised man in Newark since Sharpe James, but you can't blame a guy for not being all too thrilled with being the best player on a team that's currently 17-43 and has nothing even close to a star to play second fiddle. The Pacers aren't much to get excited about either and, by passing up a move to Brooklyn for Hoosierville, Williams won't have the same endorsement opportunities that would be there if he still was "The Man" in Newark/Brooklyn. In Indiana, the Pacers have one of the game's best young forwards in Danny Granger, one of the most underrated big men in Roy Hibbert and a couple of potential solid role players in former NCAA Player of the Year Tyler Hansborough and last year's lottery pick Paul George. Point guard has been a spot Indiana has had a void in since Mark Jackson left. With Williams, the Pacers have a better shot of contending than Williams ever would have in New Jersey. Obviously, Williams would rather be a Knick, but that job seems like it's Chris Paul's to lose.
Where he WILL go: New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets - Williams' conundrum is he finds himself on a team going nowhere and a year away from free agency where he will pretty much be the consolation prize for whoever can't land Chris Paul. On top of that, there aren't many teams that are legit contenders that have the money to give Williams the deal he'd want. Maybe L.A. can do some fancy maneuvering and trade off some of their parts to bring in Dwight Howard and Williams to team with Kobe? Maybe Williams can break the Clipper curse and unite with Blake Griffin and make a run with L.A.'s other team? Maybe he replaces Paul in New Orleans, if there's still a team left? Maybe the Mavs give up on Rod Beaubois and tab Williams as Jason Kidd's heir apparent? Maybe he ties his luck in Houston or the aforementioned Pacers? Williams' hands are tied because he'll be available at a time where a couple of other good point guards are available and he'll be competing with them for a small amount of open slots.
Staying in New Jersey may not offer much in contender column, but it offers D-Will the chance to stroll into a new arena in Brooklyn as "The Man". He might be the face of horrible franchise, but after years of playing in John Stockton's shadow as Carlos Boozer's sidekick, he could go to New York with a chip on his shoulder and compete for the title of "Best Point Guard" in New York with his best friend and possible cross-town rival in Chris Paul. Who knows? Maybe Williams' presence brings in another big name and it's the Knicks, and not the Nets this time, that become the little brother in the Big Apple.
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