As the Boom Roasted Sports resident film guy, I'm here to give you the official BRS Oscar preview. As usual, I have watched roughly half of the films that are nominated for awards. This preview is going to be a mix of who I think should win and who I think will win, because should win and will win are rarely ever the same in Hollywood. It's ironic that the academy calls everything not honorary an "award of merit" because the movie business is the one with the biggest disparity between merit/talent and success. (Isn't that right Katherine Heigel?)
With no further ado, here are a few things you need to know about tonight's award, by category, but only the ones that matter:
Best Picture -
Nominees:
127 Hours (aka James Franco chews his arm off. Thank you Greg Proops)
Black Swan (aka Blood and Feathers. Thank you Greg Proops' wife)
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Who do I think will win: The Social Network
As of the moment I am writing this, I have seen five of these films. They are, in alphabetical order, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, and Winter's Bone. I am going to try to watch The Kids Are Alright between the time I finish this blog and the start of the ceremony tonight.
I think The Social Network is going to win. It had all of the early momentum and all of the early buzz, although The King's Speech is picking up steam. Should it win? I don't know. All of these films are so different that I don't know how to compare them and I wouldn't be upset if any of them won...except for Toy Story 3. It was good, but not Best Picture material. (And as anyone who has read my Facebook page in the last day knows, I think Animal Kingdom should be on this list, but more on that later.)
Best Actor -
Nominees:
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Who will win: Colin Firth
This category might as well be called "Colin Firth and four smiling faces in tuxedos." He has won all of the major awards leading up to the Oscars. He was amazing, he deserves to win, and will win. Done and done.
Best Actress -
Nominees:
Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Who will win: Natalie Portman
I come to this category from a position of almost complete ignorance. I've only seen one of the films but I can say that Jennifer Lawrence was great. That being said, all of the buzz is around Natalie Portman. She won the Golden Globe, so I'll say she wins tonight and I hope she doesn't laugh out loud again.
Best Supporting Actor -
Nominees:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Who will win: Christian Bale
From what I hear, this is a two man race between Bale and Rush. I haven't seen The Fighter but Bale seems to have all the momentum. I thought Hawkes and Renner were both great and I'm glad they are at least getting recognized, but in the end I think it will be Bale.
Best Supporting Actress -
Nominees:
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Who will win: Melissa Leo
From what I hear this category is down to Steinfeld and Leo. I think most people will go with Leo, even though Steinfeld is reportedly fantastic and carries True Grit. All that being said, I would love to see Jacki Weaver win, just to see this movie get something. I'm stunned Animal Kingdom didn't get more love. It is a complex family crime drama and Weaver plays the matriarch who is watching her family slowly unravel in front of her. This film killed it at the Australian Film Institute's awards. (It is an Australian film by the way.) I don't know if Weaver had the best performance of these women, but I'd love to see this film get a little due.
Best Director -
Nominees:
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
The Coen Bros. - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O. Russell - The Fighter
Who will win: David Fincher
And I think he totally deserves to. The genius of this movie is the tone and the fact that the energy and tone of the movie match that of the main character. Fincher is more responsible for that than any other person. Fincher, lock it up.
Documentary Feature -
Nominees:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
Who will win: Inside Job
The only one of these I've seen is Exit Through the Gift Shop, but I did watch it twice. Does that count for something? Anyway, as much I would love to see Banksy win, I simply don't see it happening. I hear Inside Job, about the 2008 banking collapse, is excellent and is going to win. I also hear Restrepo is amazing, but Inside Job has all of the momentum right now.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) -
Nominees:
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Who will win: The Social Network
Sort of by accident I have The Social Network winning Best Picture, Director, and now Screenplay. This is usually how these things work and I think that it could play into it winning this award as well. Although I think the much of the strength of this film was in the way it was directed, Aaron Sorkin provided great material.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees:
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Who will win: Inception
Obviously, what Inception lacked in emotion it made up for in plot twists and turns. Here's the thing, all of Christopher Nolan's movies leave you asking a question...Was Guy Pearce's character in Memento really suffering from short-term memory loss, or was he faking it? (Spoiler Alert: He was faking. If you haven't seen that movie by now, tough tits. And while we're at it, Bruce Willis is dead the whole time in The Sixth Sense and Old Yeller dies.) Other questions asked after Nolan movies...Why did I spend good money to watch Insomnia? Why is Batman talking like that? In this one (I promise, no spoilers) it is whether the whole thing is real or another dream. The beauty of this movie is there isn't some fact to tip it one way or the other. No matter which way you believe, you can argue your case. Just brilliant.
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