Tuesday, June 12, 2012

2012 NBA Finals Preview

You'd have to dig in the crates to find an NBA Finals quite like this where you have the two best players in the league facing each other, in their prime, for an NBA championship.

Jordan's Bulls vs. Magic's Lakers in '91? Maybe, though the argument could be made that Magic was getting long in the tooth.

Hakeem's Rockets vs. Shaq's Magic in '95? Probably a better example, though Shaq wasn't quite the dominant machine he would become with the Lakers.




The 2012 NBA Finals not only offers the two best players in the league going head-to-head for their first championship. It's the two best players in the league, playing the same position, guarding each other with everything at stake. This series is about more than LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant but try telling that to those amping up this NBA Finals. To them and, really, to all of us, this is the basketball version of Pacquaio-Mayweather. This is Jerry Rice being defended by Deion Sanders. It's Bob Gibson on the mound facing Hank Aaron. After years of championships being won by historically great teams, it's the individual matchups that will draw all the attention when the series tips off tonight. Beyond James vs. Durant, there's Dwyane Wade vs. Russell Westbrook, Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka, James Harden vs. Shane Battier. It's a collision of two young, supremely athletic teams where the best six or seven players on the court are either in or nearing their prime(with the exception of D-Wade, whose prime is starting to slip).

It's just what the doctor ordered after the season the NBA just had, which brings me to the other reason these Finals are significant.


The NBA lead off last fall with the same PR nightmare the NFL tried and, inevitably, did avoid: A season marred by labor strife-related work stoppage. Fans were quick to turn on the NBA after the league had to cancel nearly the first two months of the season while trying to hammer out a new CBA. When it was announced that basketball would return on Christmas, many who watched how the lockout took a toll on the NFL in terms of injuries and overall sluggishness(especially on defense) were scared that the NBA was in for the same damage. We expected a season filled with costly injuries and high scoring affairs where defense was as common as a Harlem Globetrotters show.....and matters were about to be made worse.

As if being embroiled in a labor strike wasn't enough of kick to their public relations groin, the league really opened the door for conspiracy theorists laying in the woodwork when it completely botched the Chris Paul trade. Time will tell whether the league, then operating under the best interests of the New Orleans Hornets, made the right move by nixing the win-now trade agreed upon from the Lakers in order to take a Clippers offer that had more future perks. The fast-paced entertainment of the shortened NBA season eventually took some of the attention off of the Paul debacle, even though CP3's MVP campaign in L.A. still left a sour taste in some people's mouths. Still, even throughout the season, the league was hampered by another trade mess: the on-again, off-again trade demands of Magic center Dwight Howard. When Dwight finally lost his game of chicken with Orlando and foolishly agreed to not opt out(a move he now admits he regrets), the league seemed to steady the ship the best way it knew how and got a lift from a surprisingly entertaining postseason highlighted by the emergence of the 8th-seeded Philadelphia 76ers(yet scarred by the torn ACL of last year's MVP Derrick Rose). This year's playoffs saw the return of the old Heat-Knicks rivalry, the return of the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics and teams like the Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers making their case as sneaky teams to watch going forward. Yes, all was finally well in the world of hardwood.

Then, the NBA lottery happened.


When the still-league owned Hornets won the NBA lottery and the chance to acquire the Draft's only franchise-changer in Kentucky forward Anthony Davis, everyone still salty over the Chris Paul deal sharpened their pitchforks and lit their torches and headed back towards league offices for David Stern's head. If that wasn't enough, every great playoff game seemed to be hamstrung by some questionable officiating. When the Miami Heat came back from down 3-2 to win the Eastern Conference in 7 games, cynics threw up their arms in disgust and were dead set that the fix was in(another lucky break for the NBA after the Heat advanced: Boxing signing its death certificate with one of the worst scoring decisions in the sport's history, awarding Tim Bradley a win over Pacquiao after Pac-Man dominated Bradley for 12 rounds. To say that the Internet was on fire after the split decision was an understatement. Suddenly, LeBron James making his second straight NBA Finals didn't hurt as much.).

The truth is this, and this has been pointed out on several different websites so I'm already aware that I'm not breaking new ground here, the NBA was going to deal with people crying foul regardless of who won the lottery. Could you imagine if Cleveland won, two years after LeBron left and a year after winning the #1 pick with the draft choice they acquired from the Clippers? Or how about Brooklyn, just a few months away from opening its grand basketball cathedral in Brooklyn? What if they won the right to draft Davis and give the Big Apple ANOTHER potential big star? If the league was going to rig the lottery, why would they agree to send Anthony Davis is New Orleans of all places? I mean, I'm a Hornets fan and I have a hard time understanding that one. A team with the 4th-worst record last year that's a cluster of bad contracts and role players that's 12 months away from losing the centerpiece of the Chris Paul trade in Eric Gordon? THAT'S the team the league hand-picked to send it's next big thing? Why? If the league somehow forces the Magic to give Howard to the Hornets for Gustavo Ayon and a future 2nd-round pick, then I'll be the first to smell something's up but, until then, I'm not buying it. I'm always looking for reasons to be skeptical but.....this? I just can't see it. You can call it bias, but I think there were more entertaining options if the league wanted to screw us.

Regardless, all of that negativity gets washed away thanks to the NBA Finals matchup we all wanted when these playoffs started. Durant and James have whet our appetite for this showdown by putting on some phenomenal performances in these playoffs. There was LeBron's Game 6 against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, which was almost matched by Durant's Game 6 to close out the Spurs in the Western Finals. Still, there's more interesting points to these Finals besides the fact it might save the NBA or we get to see two superstars battle it out.

Here's some other things to think about:


* This series comes down to more than just LeBron vs. Durant. I reiterate, this isn't a one-on-one showdown. For starters, if we learned anything from the two most recent Lakers-Celtics Finals, it's that the toll of having to carry the load offensively and then get back on defense and guard the opponent's best player inevitably wears you down. Tonight's Game 1 might be one for the ages and we may even get a couple other back-and-forth affairs between "The Akron Hammer" and "Kid Dynamite" but it's not going to be the made-for-TV movie we all dream it will be. The team that wins this series will be the team whose bench steps up the most. Obviously, that advantage goes to Oklahoma City as Miami doesn't have much beyond their Big Three. Oklahoma City has Derek Fisher, who may be washed up but has a reputation for coming up huge in big postseason moments. The only guy with those kind of clutch tendencies on the Heat is Mario Chalmers and I think we can all agree he's no Derek Fisher(although Derek Fisher wasn't Derek Fisher until he BECAME Derek Fisher. Confused? You should be. If Mario Chalmers is going to sharpen that buzzer-beater resume from his Kansas days, he's going to have to start somewhere. What better place than these Finals?). Beyond Fisher, there's forward Nick Collison, defensive stopper Thabo Sefalosha and young center Cole Aldrich. The Heat will combating that trio with guys like Joel Anthony and Norris Cole. That's not exactly a reason to get pumped in South Beach. So, yes, Durant vs. LeBron will be the main event and Wade-Westbrook is a great undercard but this series is going to come down to guys outside of the respective Big Threes.


* At the risk of stating the obvious, Dwyane Wade needs to come up big in these Finals. It's amazing how quickly Dwyane Wade morphed from an MVP candidate who owned Miami to a guy some have fantasized about trading in the offseason. D-Wade's postseason hasn't been terrible but it's been bad enough to wonder if he's lost a step. Skeptics are quick to point out the fact that he's 30. So? He just went seven games against a Celtics team that's two years from collecting Social Security and they were thisclose to facing a Spurs team lead by a guy in Tim Duncan that fans were reading the last rights to before the season started. Win or lose, Wade's going nowhere but it has been interesting to watch him wither under LeBron's spotlight. Lest we forget, we all thought LeBron would be the sidekick when he decided to take his talents to South Beach two years ago. Now, South Beach went from Miami-Wade County to Miami-James County. Wade isn't washed up by any stretch of the imagination. He just hasn't looked like the 2006 tour de force we remember. With that said, if people were ready to bury Flash before, a series against the younger, faster, more explosive and more athletic Russell Westbrook will do Wade no favors. Wade is one of the game's best two-way players and he's proven he can lock guys down but Westbrook will be the best guard he's faced all postseason and if having to play both ways is destined to wear down the much younger Durant and James, it's bound to be even worse for Wade(who seems like an elder statesmen among these young pups). LeBron's made it this far with Wade being underwhelming but he's also been lucky. The best team he's faced to this point was Boston, who was without its budding star in Avery Bradley and was just too old to be able to win its second straight seven-game series against a younger, more athletic opponent. This time around against a heavily-favored Thunder team, Wade needs to be James' Pippen and take some of the load off LeBron to keep him from tiring. James is coming off putting the team on his back for seven grueling games against the Celtics. It's asking way too much for him to do the same thing again in the Finals while also having to shut down the game's best scorer.



* Chris Bosh is Miami's only advantage in this series. We've mentioned the Thunder have the better bench. We'll agree that Durant-James is a wash and we'll also agree that, if you had to lean one way or the other, you'd take Westbrook over Wade right now. The other advantages for Oklahoma City? First, Scott Brooks is exponentially a better coach than Erik Spoelstra. Coach Spo looked lost at times against Doc Rivers and company in the ECF and even in some spots in the two series prior. He's been especially befuddled when it comes to drawing up a late-game gameplan and the alleged rift between him and Wade will only stand to get worse if the Heat start off slow. Meanwhile, Brooks' men love him and he's solved the main problems that plagued them last season: inexperience and the Durant-Westbrook alpha dog debacle. Now, everyone knows their role in OKC. This is Kevin Durant's team with some help from Westbrook and James Harden. However, if there's a plus in Miami's column, it's Chris Bosh's matchup against Serge Ibaka. Ibaka is one of the premier defensive big men in the game and he's proven to be able to guard stretch-fours like Bosh, but Bosh is crafty enough offensively to be a factor. Yes, Ibaka will have games where he throws Bosh's jump hooks into the bleachers. There will also be games where Bosh drops 30 on him. Bosh's return is what helped swing the Conference Finals in Miami's favor and his three-point shooting in Game 7 was a huge reason Miami is playing for the title again. Unlike Wade and James, Bosh doesn't have to worry too much about his opponent on the offensive end. Ibaka's big offensive output against San Antonio in Game 4 was a fluke. You're not going to see that again in these Finals. What you will see is Ibaka hustling on the boards and contesting shots. Bosh needs to keep him guessing and make life easier for James and Wade.



* Before you paint the Thunder as the good guys, remember the people of Seattle. Oklahoma City has embraced the Thunder and have proven to be one of the sport's best and most loyal home crowds. That being said, it's hard to get excited for the Thunder without feeling bad for fans of the Sonics. Remember, these people loved their team, too, and they had to sit back and helplessly watch them skip town and are now forced between rooting for them or the most hated team in the league. That can't be easy. Yes, it's unfair to hold what happened to the Sonics against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who seem like two of the game's best role models and genuine good guys, but it's also unfair that Miami gets to wear the black hats by default. Many may disagree with how this Heat team was assembled but they did it by the book and they made the moves that fans clamor for their teams to make every summer. Every fan wants their team to sign the best free agents. Miami signed the best three of 2010. It's just as much a matter of business as the Sonics becoming the Thunder. We may not like it but it's crazy to think that one team deserves to be on a higher moral ground just because they built their team through the draft as opposed to throwing money at mercenaries. Dwyane Wade was Miami's draft pick. He chose to bring his friends to his house. There's nothing in the rules against that. There's nothing in the rules against moving your team to another city. It's just a matter of ethics. Both teams have reasons to draw ire. You can choose to hate whoever you want but, before you make the Thunder into heroes, think about how this must feel for the guys sipping vanilla lattes from Starbucks while watching the Finals in their Shawn Kemp jerseys during a rain storm in Seattle. Dwyane Wade could have took the party elsewhere and left Miami in the dust much like ownership did to Seattle. He didn't. He brought the party to his table. Sure, he robbed Toronto and Cleveland while he did it but at least those fans still have a team to root for. Sonics fans can't say that anymore.


* Win or lose, LeBron James deserves our respect. You can hold a grudge against King James for "The Decision" if you want. He admitted it was a mistake and Cleveland has proven to be unfit place for a once-in-a-generation talent to succeed by picking in Top 4 three times in the last two seasons. In those two seasons, LeBron has made the Finals twice. He put on a performance only seen before by Wilt Chamberlain in his epic Game 6 masterpiece against Boston. As of right now, he's the game's best player. That could change if he gets outplayed by Durant but what should also change is all the vitriol the man has had to face since Day 1. Now, I will grant you that LeBron does do a little too much hot-dogging at times(hanging on the rim after the alley-oop in Game 7, putting his hand up like Sidney Dean in "White Men Can't Jump" after nailing a 30-foot jumper) and I've said many times that I disagreed with making his "decision" into a national spectacle. That being said, it's time to face facts. One day, LeBron will be champion. It might be by this time next week. It might be next season, but it will happen. He's the most explosive athlete this sport has seen since Michael Jordan and, whether Bulls fans want to admit or not, MJ would stand no chance guarding LeBron if both were in their prime. He's too big, too fast, too strong, too athletic and maybe even too talented. Is he BETTER than MJ? Time will tell. Right now, absolutely not, but you can't spend most of a decade building a man up to be a basketball god than be outraged when it turns out he can't walk on water or turn water into wine. LeBron James is human. You wanted him to get a better team around him so he could compete for championships and he did. He didn't go about it the right way but he clearly made the best decision for his NBA future. When his career is over, you will look back at all the time you wasted denouncing a man who couldn't live up to the lofty expectations that you put up for him. It took Jordan eight seasons, a Hall of Fame coach and the acquisition of one of the 50 greatest players of all-time to win his first championship. Jordan needed Pippen and Phil Jackson. James needed Wade and Bosh. Jordan competed against the Malone-Stockton Jazz, the Johnson-Barkley Suns, the Kemp-Payton Sonics. He never had to try to win championships against teams with three Hall of Famers in their starting lineup and, when he did try, he failed(Bird's Celtics, Isaiah Thomas' Pistons). This is LeBron's 9th season. At 27, this will be his 3rd Finals appearance. At the way athletes train and condition, he could play for another 10 years. He's not going anywhere. So enjoy him while you have him.

NBA Finals Prediction: Heat over Thunder in 7. Every bone in my body and beat in my heart says take Oklahoma City. Westbrook is going to own Wade. Brooks is going to school Spoelstra. OKC's reserves are better. James Harden is going to win at least one game by himself. However, a couple of things to consider. First, nobody gave Dallas a shot against a heavily-favored Heat team last year and the Mavs won in 6. Everyone thought OKC was finished after going down 2-0 to San Antonio and here they are. Everyone thought Boston was going to upset Miami after they won Game 5, yet here's the Heat. This has been a postseason of the unexpected(with the obvious exception of the Finals matchup we all predicted. Still, that prediction was in jeopardy two weeks ago). The Thunder may have more talent but Miami has more experience. This is Wade and James' third NBA Finals. They know from last year what not to do. Oklahoma City has made all the right moves. They can't be perfect forever. The first two games of the Spurs series proved that. Second, if LeBron and Durant are even offensively, James still gets the edge defensively. We've never seen Durant lock down an opponent the way James did Derrick Rose last year or make big defensive plays when it matters the way James did in Game 7. We also know Wade is better than Westbrook defensively and Battier is every bit as good a defensive stopper as Sefalosha is. It's not impossible to think that Miami can dig deep defensively and win a gritty, ugly game by throwing a wrench in this explosive Thunder offense. I don't know if you can have that same confidence with Oklahoma City.



Third, and finally, LeBron is due. When it looked like Indiana might pull off the upset against the Bosh-less Heat, LeBron persevered. When Boston had Miami on the ropes looking for the knockout, LeBron took their best punch and delivered a KO of his own. This is going to be a hell of a series between two evenly-matched teams and we'll remember this Finals for ages but if LeBron is ever going to get it right, it's going to be this time around, when he's the underdog against an opponent who will raise his game every night. Durant vs. James is going to be something special but, if I learned anything this postseason, it's you don't count out LeBron James

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