Week 5 Picks

 Last Week: 11-4-1

Season: 32-30-2

After an abysmal start, I’m finally above .500 this season. The eight people reading this may have wrote me off but I didn’t write back.

Colts (+3.5) over Broncos

The NFL obviously had bigger expectations when they first put this on the docket than a showdown between the two most disappointing teams in the league. If the Colts players care at all about Frank Reich keeping his job, they’ll show out against a banged up Broncos team. I’m sure I’ll end up regretting this but I’m giving Indianapolis one last chance to show me something.

Giants (+9) over Packers

As I said last week, until the Packers’ offense shows some life, it’s hard to like Green Bay against anyone by more than a touchdown. Pack win another close one.

Bills (-14) over Steelers

Two touchdown spreads are typically a stay-away for me but Pittsburgh is awful and Josh Allen is building his MVP case. The bright side for Steelers fans is Mike Tomlin finally ended the Mistake Makin’ Mitch era and decided to give Kenny Pickett a shot. It won’t help them here but it might down the road.

Buccaneers (-10) over Falcons

I might regret this pick because Atlanta has been competitive so far this season, but Kyle Pitts is out and Tom Brady is finally getting his weapons back. A good game would also give the world something else to talk about besides…you know.

Vikings (-7.5) over Bears

The good news for the Bears is David Montgomery might be back. The bad news he doesn’t play corner. Justin Jefferson keeps the momentum going against Chicago.

Browns (+2) over Chargers

Upset special. The Chargers’ defense is giving up 27 points per game (30th in the league) while the Browns have the NFL’s sixth-best scoring offense (26.3 PPG). Los Angeles is banged up enough on offense that it won’t survive a shootout.

Lions (+3) over Patriots

Detroit is the most dangerous 1-3 team in the NFL and New England won’t be able to keep pace with the league’s best offense with former third-string rookie Bailey Zappe at QB.

Jets (+3.5) over Dolphins

Both of Miami’s top weapons are banged up and Teddy Bridgewater won’t be able to move the ball against this Jets defense like he did against the Bengals (which the Dolphins lost anyway). This one comes down to a field goal. Gang Green covers at home.

Titans (-1) over Commanders

The only interesting part about this game is rookie RB Brian Robinson potentially taking the field just months after being shot in the leg before the season. Beyond that, it’s a battle between two QBs sure to be benched by Halloween.

Jaguars (-7) over Texans

The Texans are 18-4 against the Jaguars in their last 22 games, including winning the last eight, but this isn’t the same Jags team as years past. Jacksonville dominates here.

Seahawks (+5) over Saints

No Jameis Winston. No Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara is banged up and the Seahawks haven’t been terrible this year. Seattle doesn’t just cover. It wins outright.

Niners (-6.5) over Panthers

It’s looking like a lost season already for the Panthers. CMC is struggling to stay healthy. Baker Mayfield might be the worst starting QB in the league and there’s buzz that Matt Rhule isn’t long for the world in Carolina. Even on a short week, the Niners should roll here.

Eagles (-5.5) over Cardinals

With a balanced offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Eagles might be the best team in the NFC and perhaps even the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are struggling to hold it together until DeAndre Hopkins comes back.

Cowboys (+5.5) over Rams

Matt Stafford took seven sacks in a loss to the Niners last week and now gets the league’s fiercest pass rush on a short week. Cooper Rush’s undefeated streak continues.

Bengals (+3) over Ravens

The Bengals are a couple bad breaks from being 4-0 and they’re coming off two straight convincing wins. It’s hard to pick against Lamar Jackson’s one-man show but Cincy has the momentum right now.

Chiefs (-7) over Raiders

Tom Brady couldn’t win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. Neither could Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray. Why would I believe Derek Carr could?