Week 4 Picks

Last week: 9-6-1

(Note: Completely forgot to post the Packers-Bucs game last week but I had the Bucs so that's an L.)

Season: 21-26-1

Dolphins (+3.5) over Bengals

The Bengals are 1-2 with their lone victory coming last week against the lowly Jets. They’ve also allowed 15 sacks through three games, tied with Washington for most in the league. Even at home on a short week against a banged up Dolphins team, Cincinnati opening up as favorites is a bit preposterous. If Cincy can keep Joe Burrow upright, there’s some shootout potential here but, even at less than 100 percent, I expect Tua & company to take care of business.

Vikings (-3.5) over Saints

The NFL’s ongoing campaign to make other countries hate football continues with an epic clash between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton in London. Dalton is filling in for the injured Jameis Winston and, if that isn’t enough to make you lose faith in the Saints’ chances, New Orleans will also be without top weapons Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Vikings get Dalvin Cook back after he left last week with a shoulder injury and there’s no reason to believe they won’t cruise here.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Eagles

The Jaguars and Eagles are arguably two of the most impressive teams through three weeks of the season. Jacksonville recovered from an opening week hiccup against Washington to throttle the Colts and Chargers in the last two games while Philadelphia is the last remaining undefeated team at 3-0. Philly’s D has been leaky enough this season that Jacksonville can at least keep it close. Eagles win. Jags cover.

Bills (-3) over Ravens

Lamar Jackson is my MVP through three weeks as he’s carried the Ravens with his arm and legs but I like Buffalo’s chances of momentarily slowing Jackson down more than Baltimore’s chances of doing the same to Josh Allen. Bills by a score.

Titans (+3.5) over Colts

Everything had to go wrong for the Chiefs last week so the Colts could get their first win. The Titans are equally inept but they’re getting the points so I like them as the lesser of two evils.

Giants (-2.5) over Bears

One of these teams will walk out 3-1, which is a tragedy. Justin Fields is allegedly unhappy in Chicago, and why wouldn’t he be? His leading receiver has 77 yards in three games (Equanimeous St. Brown). Things aren’t much better for Big Blue as injuries have decimated the receiving core again. Saquon Barkley is still healthy though, so Giants by a field goal.

Cowboys (-3) over Commanders

After getting beat down in his return to Philly last week, Carson Wentz now gets to be chased around Dallas by the league’s fiercest pass rush. Cowboys haven’t lost since Cooper Rush took over and that streak won’t end here.

Chargers (-6) over Texans

The injury bug may have once again ruined the Chargers’ championship hopes but there’s still enough talent to handle a rebuilding Texans team still looking for its first win.

Falcons (+1) over Browns

Even in a rebuilding year, the Falcons haven’t been awful. A narrow loss to New Orleans in Week 1, a near-comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 2 and a W over the Seahawks last week. Now, they get the Browns sans Myles Garrett. If Marcus Mariota continues to get Drake London and Kyle Pitts involved, I like Atlanta with the upset.

Seahawks (+3.5) over Lions

I liked Detroit to win this earlier in the week but no D’Andre Swift, no Amon-Ra St. Brown or DJ Chark and top pick Aiden Hutchinson on a milk carton puts a damper on things. The Lions could still pull this one out but it’ll be too close to like them by more than a field goal.

Jets (+3.5) over Steelers

The MILF Hunter is back and he gets a showdown with Mitch Trubisky for his 2022 debut. Zach Wilson will have some rust to shake off but the Steelers’ offense will sputter enough under Mistake Makin’ Mitch to buy the Jets some time. Jets with the “upset”.

Cardinals (+1) over Panthers

CMC possibly sitting this one out would be the cherry on an awful football Sunday. Kyler works his magic to get dub here.

Patriots (+9.5) over Packers

No Mac Jones or Jakobi Meyers for the Pats but the Packers’ offense isn’t good enough to pick them to win by double-digits against anyone, even the badly wounded. Packers by a score in another defensive struggle.

Raiders (-3) over Broncos

Bigger regret: Davante Adams leaving Green Bay for the league’s only 0-3 team or the Broncos paying $245 million for a QB with two touchdowns in three games? If Las Vegas is going to get back on track, you would think it would be against a toothless Denver squad.

Chiefs (+1) over Bucs

45-year-old Tom Brady is starting to show his age and Hurricane Ian still looms around Florida. The Bucs struggled to find the end zone against the Packers last week and now have the tall task of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs team cheated out of a victory last week. Yikes.

Rams (+1.5) over Niners

I don’t know how the Niners are favored in this one after last week’s stinkfest against Denver but here we are. Rams make oddsmakers put respect on their name on national television by blowing out San Fran.