Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 49-42-3

Cardinals (-2.5) over Saints 

The Cardinals finally get DeAndre Hopkins back after a six-game suspension. They’re still terrible but this makes them a little more fun to watch and should be enough to take down a short-handed Saints squad. 

Packers (-4.5) over Commanders

This is the worst Packers team since Green Bay went 6-9-1 in 2018 and a strong contender for the worst since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. The offense isn't producing any big plays because the O-line can't keep Rodgers upright and the defense, which the franchise has invested a ton of draft capital in over the years much to the chagrin of their Hall of Fame QB, is on the field too long to fully realize its potential. With all that said, a clash with the dysfunctional Commanders is a smash spot for a Packers team in need of a confidence boost.

Falcons (+6.5) over Bengals 

The Falcons are quietly playing .500 football and are coming off a 14-point win over the Niners. The Bengals are back from the dead but Atlanta will be competitive enough to keep it close. 

Cowboys (-6.5) over Lions

All eyes will be on the return of Dak Prescott after backup Cooper Rush went 4-1 as a starter in Dak’s absence. If Dallas’ $160 million man can’t shake off the rush and put away Detroit, you can expect talking heads to come out the woodwork on Monday trying to stir up a QB controversy. 

Colts (+2.5) over Titans

A textbook example of my “Regular Season Doesn’t Matter” theory: both of these teams are suddenly above .500 but still terrible. Someone has to win this game (or in Indy’s case, at least the), so I might as well take the points. 

Buccaneers (-13) over Panthers

I’m skittish about taking the Bucs as double-digit favorites again after they shit the bed against Pittsburgh last week but Carolina is a rotting corpse already being picked through by vultures. If Tampa Bay can’t win convincingly here, Tom Brady should just go ahead and retire after the game. 

Giants (+3) over Jaguars 

Oddsmakers don’t seem to believe in a 5-1 Giants team coming off back-to-back victories over the Ravens and Packers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost three straight, making this spread pretty egregious. It’ll be a low-scoring affair but Big Blue takes the “upset”.

Browns (+6.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens have followed every loss this season with a win and vice versa. Based on that trend, they should win here but injuries on the offensive end make it hard to like that by more than a field goal against a Browns team that can control the clock with a solid run game. 

Jets (-1.5) over Broncos

There’s Cooper Rush potential here with Brett Rypien taking over at QB for the injured and overrated Russell Wilson but the Jets have a ton of momentum after winning four of their last five and their defense is disgusting. 

Texans (+7) over Raiders

I might be getting too cute here but the Raiders have been a colossal disappointment this year and will be playing without Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller. On the flip side, Texans RB Dameon Pierce is making his ROTY case and Houston only has one bad loss on their record. Houston doesn’t just cover. They pull off the upset. 

Chargers (-5.5) over Seahawks 

The Chargers are short-handed on offense but Darrell Brooks is mounting a better defense in a Wisconsin courtroom than the Seahawks have fielded this season (410.8 yards and 27.7 points allowed per game, both bottom-five in the league). As promised, last week was the debut of The Kenneth Walker Show but, unfortunately,  the impressive rookie runner can’t stop Justin Herbert and the Bolts. 

Chiefs (-1.5) over Niners

It’s understandable for people to freak out over the Niners’ acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, but CMC hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and now shares the backfield with the equally fragile Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. A showdown with the high-octane Chiefs isn’t a proper litmus test for this new-look San Fran offense but there’s enough on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive. KC still rolls though.  

Steelers (+7.5) over Dolphins 

The Dolphins as 7.5-point favorites is generous, even against the lowly Steelers. It may be Tua Time once again, but the former Bama star hasn’t played in nearly a month and is no sure bet to make it through this game. Speaking of concussions, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett gets the nod after getting knocked out last week because 50 percent of the rookie is still better than 100 percent of Mitch Trubisky. This has the makings of a shitshow, one Miami will inevitably win but not cover. 

Patriots (-8) over Bears

After mindlessly giving the world Russell Wilson on Monday night twice in six weeks, the NFL will now subject the world to Mac Jones vs Justin Fields. I guess when you know you’re going to lose some of your audience to the NBA and a suddenly resurgent “Monday Night Raw”, you don’t care as much about what you’re putting on primetime. Patriots should cover against one of the worst teams in football but the real winners will be whoever chooses to not watch this game.