NBA Preview.....Dave Edition

Gabe gave you his homer-tastic NBA predictions yesterday(which you can still read if you aren't too lazy to scroll down). Here are my predictions, with a few of my typical bold statements that I end up eating by midseason.

Eastern Playoffs:

1. Boston- On paper, they're the best team in the NBA, to me. Of course, on paper means about as much as a Larry Johnson apology when it comes to actual results. The fact is, this team is only going as far as Kevin Garnett's knees will take them. 'Sheed is a decent Plan B if KG's knees pull a Shaun Livingston, but you have to wonder about his temperment the entire year. There a few other question marks as well: Ray Allen's slow decline, Rajon Rondo's contract issues, etc. Right now, they have more talent than anyone and, best case scenario, that makes them the team to beat.

2. Cleveland - I want to buy Shaq as LeBron's super sidekick. I really do. The problem is, we've never seen it before. Nearing 40, Shaq is still one of the 10 best centers in the NBA(which has more to say about the dearth of quality bigs than The Diesel's longevity), and that might be just enough for a team that was thisclose to the title last year. That being said, I still think they're a move away. I don't like the distraction of Desperado Delonte West and his guitar case of weapons. I'm not sold on Anthony Parker being another long range threat to complement LeBron. The guy that makes the most sense for them is Bucks shooting guard and hometown hero Michael Redd, who has to be the next big contract headed out of Milwaukee. If Shaq and LeBron can prove to be a cohesive duo the entire season, we could see a '01 Lakers redux, but right now, that's a big if.

3. Orlando - Some experts are going gaga over the acquisition of Vince Carter. I'm not. For one, even with all his talent, Vinsanity has never been able to carry a team deep into the playoffs. He couldn't do it with a game Raptors team. He couldn't do it with Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson in New Jersey, and I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he is over the departed Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu's strengths were that he had the killer instinct late in games to take over when nobody else wants to. Carter doesn't have that. Hedo was also a big man who can bring the ball up and create mismatches with his size and shooting ability. Carter, on the other hand, has morphed from the next Michael Jordan to the next Mitch Richmond, as he's become a jump shooter who is scared of contact around the rim. That leaves oft-injured Jameer Nelson as the only guy who can penetrate and get to the line. Also, this needs to be the year Dwight Howard shows a bit more versitility in his offensive moves beyond dunks and some baby hooks.

4. Chicago - The East is going to be won by one of the afforementioned three teams, but of the rest of the bunch, the Baby Bulls have the most potential. Defending ROY Derrick Rose is one step away from being a bonafide star, but he needs to be a more consistant shooter both from the arc and at the line. His ability to make teammates better is a huge benefit to a team that has a number of role players but no real stars(beyond Rose, obviously). Loul Deng looked poised for a breakout before getting hurt and the team is still waiting for the emergence of young bigs Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas. However, this team gave Boston everything it could handle in the playoffs last year, and if they can swing some of these parts for another big name(Carlos Boozer, perhaps), they could make a run at the Top 3 if any of the elite show their age.

5. Miami - For all the talk about The Summer of LeBron, I think Dwayne Wade in his contract year is going to be downright monstrous. I like D-Wade to make a strong run at the MVP(but not winning it, as I'll point out later), but how far this team goes depends on the supporting cast. Jermaine O'Neal is a corpse who will eventually turn into trade bait(Carlos Boozer? Tracy McGrady, maybe?) and nobody knows what the future holds for Michael Beasley, except maybe his dealer. Wade made it clear in the offseason that he wants a championship team around him before he considers re-signing next summer. That might pressure Pat Riley into some moves that make the Heat a win-now threat this season. Wade showed he can carry this team on his back, but how far they can go with him as a one-man army remains to be seen.

6. Washington - The Wizards got themselves a real coach this season, swapping out Nets disciple Eddie Jordan for former Pistons/T-Wolves general Flip Saunders. They also protected themselves against the fragility of Gilbert Arenas' knees by passing up a shot at Ricky Rubio and bringing in combo guard Randy Foye. Mike Miller, who also came to DC in the draft day trade with Minnesota, is a solid sharpshooter off the bench. The big question mark(besides the obvious injury bug that keeps the Big 3 of Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Arenas from playing together) is the team's lack of a proven big man. The team made no real push for a solid frontline starter and that may come to haunt them in an Eastern Conference that already has KG and Dwight Howard and is welcoming Shaq back once again.

7. Atlanta - This isn't so much a knock on the Hawks as much as it is me believing that the teams ahead of them either improved during the offseason or will improve over the course of the season through some aggressive expansion. The Hawks, much like the Bulls, have a solid young nucleus with guys like Al Horford and Josh Smith. The problem I have will be how coach Mike Woodson handles all the hotheads under his roof. He routinely got into it with Smith last season and now has notorious free-shooting knucklehead Jamal Crawford to deal with. Plus, there's the issue of trying to find suitable minutes in the backcourt with Crawford, a contract-year Joe Johnson and the recently re-signed Mike Bibby. Those kind of chemistry issues could either make them this year's Nuggets or this year's Clippers.

8. Indiana - In a weak Eastern Conference, it really comes down to preference. I liked the Tyler Hansbrough pick. I think he brings hustle to a team that sorely needed it. I think he's a 10 and 8 guy, and that scoring can go up if the team tries him out a little at the 3 and lets him shoot. I think Danny Granger takes another big step this year after last year's campaign. I just would like some more stability at the point guard position. T.J. Ford seems to always have a career-threatening injury and there's really nobody behind him to get me excited.

Western Playoffs

1. San Antonio - Many believe that the West is a two-team race between the Spurs and Lakers and I can't really disagree(no matter how much I think of the Mavs this season). The trade for Richard Jefferson shows the team has a willingness to run as he's the kind of athletic wing that complements the speed of Tony Parker very well. Some are high on draft steal DeJuan Blair, an undersized forward from Pitt who slipped because concerns over his knees. There's the freshness of the aging but well-rested Tim Duncan. My problem with buying into the Spurs is that you're rolling the dice on a lot of vets with a lot of injury questions. Duncan's 33 and he's not Iron Man anymore. Antonio McDyess is running on half a leg. Manu Ginobli is coming back from ankle issues. Jefferson and Parker have had their nicks in the past and Blair's knee issues are well documented. Like the Celtics, they're rich and deep in talent and if all goes well, there's nothing standing in their way of the Finals, but that's an awfully large gamble with a team that's not too far from the rocking chair.

2. L.A. Lakers - The only thing keeping the Lakers from the top spot is the downgrade from Trevor Ariza to Ron Artest. Artest's much-publicized defense has become more urban legend than vivid reality. What is the truth about Ron-Ron is that he's a Grade A headcase(as proven by Kobe's story of Artest approaching The Black Mamba while he was in the shower after Artest's Rockets were just eliminated to tell Kobe he'd like to come to L.A. An occurence that would have gotten Artest raped had it been a Colorado hotel room instead of Staples Center locker room). The Lakers return many of the stars that made them champs, but there were a couple of cracks in last year's Finals that deserve further inspection coming into this year. One of the biggest intrigues will be Pau Gasol. At times during the playoffs, Gasol seemed irked by his lack of involvement in the offense while Kobe was in Rape Mode last year. Now Gasol has to share the ball not only with Kobe, but with Artest as well. The biggest question mark, of course, will be the easily aggitated Artest's ability to assimilate with The Lake Show. Many(mostly Laker fans) thinks he'll blend in seemlessly. Others(like myself) think he'll be a constant thorn in the Zen Master's surgically repaired side.

3. Dallas - The team made some decent veteran signings in bringing in Shawn Marion and Tim Thomas to add some size to a height-challenged lineup. The team also re-signed future Hall of Famer and coach killer Jason Kidd to run the offense once more. Rick Carlisle is determined to make this team better defensively, while still maintaining some of the run and gun that was a Maverick staple for so long. The team still has Dirk Nowitzki and, while that hasn't meant much in quite some time, he's still one of the 5 or 6 best players in the NBA. It's hard to call the Mavs serious contenders given how heavy the West is at the top, but they have enough seasoned vets to make a run. Marion was on a few Suns teams that had a chance at a ring and both Kidd and Nowitzki have tasted the Finals before, as has Carlisle. If the team's championship pedigree and commitment to defense holds up all season, they could be sexy sleeper come June.

4. Phoenix - The team might have actually upgraded at the center position by dealing Shaq for two guys not even on the roster anymore. Shaq's absence means more playing time for promising young big Robin Lopez. It also means the inside looks will now all be Amare Stoudemire's(assuming he isn't dealt). The backcourt of Jason Richardson and Steve Nash looks solid, if defensively-challenged, while Leandro Barbosa returns as the top option off the bench. Speaking of the reserves, the team did well in bringing back title-hungry good guy Grant Hill and versitile big man Channing Frye. Earl Clark is a rookie from Louisville, who needs some seasoning, but his raw athleticism might make an early contributer in this offense. It's unrealistic to think that this is the year the Suns finally put it all together, but they certianly have enough offense to be among the West's elite.

5. New Orleans - As a Hornets fan, I could easily use this spot to be a bit of a homer, but I'm afraid pessimism has taken over. While point guard Chris Paul is arguably one of the three best players in the league, his talents would be heightened by an athletic wing who can run with him on fast breaks and give and gos(You know, like what J.R. Smith would have been if he wasn't traded or like what Richard Jefferson is for Tony Parker). That backcourt mate isn't on the roster and the team traded away one of its most underrated players when it sent Rasual Butler to the Clippers. Rookie Darren Collison could possibly fill the role as Robin to CP3's Batman, but that might be asking too much. Up front, they return steady big man David West and swapped out oft-injured defensive big man Tyson Chandler for oft-injured defensive big man Emeka Okafor. If Okafor can stay healthy(a big if, since he's already hurt), the Hornets could be every bit as good as many projected last season, but until they find a better equipped sidekick for Paul, they'll have to settle for another almost-there season.

6. Portland - It's easy to look at Portland's young talent and become giddy with excitement, but we've seen young teams like this fold under the pressure of high expectations. For one, we don't know if Greg Oden can handle a full season. Newly signed point guard Andre Miller isn't even the starter and seems to not be too pleased with that fact, which could effect chemistry on a young team that is already causing whispers about quitting on coach Nate McMillan. Brandon Roy is an unquestioned star, but unless Oden shows off the tantalizing talents he flashed at Ohio St., it's hard to get too excited about this team's potential.

7. Denver - I know what you're thinking. How can a team that muscled its way to the conference finals last year be a 7 seed the next year? Well, if you read Bill Simmons' preview(as Gabe pointed out), George Karl's track record in the year-after hasn't been promising. Add that to the fact that this is quite the team of undisciplined knuckleheads from 'Melo down to K-Mart. The Nuggets have a ton of potential and certianly it isn't impossible to make another run like they did last year, but they lost a couple key elements in Dahntey Jones and Linus Kleiza and I don't know if the drafting of Ty Lawson makes up for that. Actually, I do know.....it doesn't.

8. Oklahoma City - What? No Jazz? No Warriors? No Clippers? Nope. I think the Jazz inevitably deal Carlos Boozer and become a rebuilding team around Paul Millsap and Deron Williams. The Warriors will continue to be just a team of promising young players held back by distractions and false expectations so long as they keep Stephen Jackson on the team and continue refusing to package that talent into bringing in win-now stars(like the Celtics did two years ago and like G.S. almost did with the draft day trade for Amare). The Clippers are, well, cursed. That was made evident by the recent Blake Griffin injury and it's hard to co-sign any team run by Mike Dunleavy. Now, as for the Thunder, they have the next big thing in Kevin Durant and they smartly built around Durant with solid young players like sophmore Russell Westbrook, rookie James Harden and forward Jeff Green. That potential, much like the Blazers last year, gives them the edge over the afforementioned three teams and thus, gives them the honor of getting swept by the Spurs in Round 1.

Western Conference Finals: Spurs over Lakers - Basketball isn't football. You waste too much time by trying to be cute and overthink things. The Lakers and Spurs are the only real contenders and I like the Spurs' chemistry over the Lakers' combustible yet uber-talented roster.

Eastern Conference Finals: Cavs over Celtics - Can you really see KG's knees lasting an 82 game season, then going through a playoffs that will see him running up and down with a young, fast, athletic group like either the Heat or Bulls in Round 2 and then having to take on LeBron for a potential 7-game series in the Conference Finals? I just can't him holding up with 1,100 games ALREADY under his belt. As for why I like the Cavs over Orlando, I think the Magic hurt their depth by going all in on the Carter trade and, much like Shaq with Cleveland, I'll believe Carter can be a solid complement when I see it. LeBron is too freakishly talented to not get his in a contract year.

NBA Finals: Cavs over Spurs - Now, the Spurs have more depth, but this pick is based on the belief that the Cavs aren't done adding talent around LeBron. I think they make a move for a Mike Bibby or a Michael Redd or maybe even Carlos Boozer if Shaq falters and become an even better team than many already think they are. Also, while Duncan obviously schools Shaq one last time, I can't find a soul on this Spurs roster that keeps up with a pissed-off LeBron James, do you? Richard Jefferson? Manu? Roger Mason? No, thanks. Cavs in 6 in what will be a 600 times better Finals than the last time we saw these two here.

MVP: LeBron James - It's his contract year and what I believe will be his farewell to Cleveland and Hello to the Clippers(Yes, I know they're cursed but they offer the right elements of solid young supporting cast and cap space). If my math is right, this would be the fourth straight year the MVP went to someone who did not go to college, which has to make David Stern feel great. I just think LeBron, in a contract year, now knows he has to take it up another notch to bring this team where it needs to go....which brings me to.....

Defensive Player of the Year: LeBron James - Did you see the cap King James had in the preseason game against the Mavs coming off the flu? The kid just has an innate ability to dominate on both ends. Now, the last player to win both awards was Hakeem Olajuwon in '93-'94 and before that, Michael Jordan in '87-88. The only real competition for this award is Howard, who could also do the double dip if the Magic play up to their potential.

Rookie of the Year: Stephen Curry, Warriors - Clear favorite Blake Griffin is spotting everyone 20 games while he recovers from a broken knee cap. Assuming Griffin returns on time, he still will need some time to get back into the swing of things. Curry, in Don Nelson's offense, is going to get plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard. Add that to the fact that he's a solid passer and is playing in a weak rookie class that got weaker when Griffin went down and there isn't much standing in Steph's way. (Side note: I liked Hansbrough for this award because he's a Shane Battier-type glue guy whose hustle will make him stand out at times, but I changed my mind because I just can't seem to get the image of the inevitable Hansbrough getting Fred Weis-ed by Josh Smith at some point this season and the eventual "Hansbrough's softer than Duncan Hines" comments that will fly and ultimately kill this kid's confidence).

Coach of the Year - Stan Van Gundy - Because he deserves something to go with that sweet 'stache, and we all know you at home could give a fuck about who wins this award.