Saturday, October 3, 2009

Week 4 Picks

Gabe and I tied once again last week, as we both went an impressive 12-4. For those scoring at home, that puts me at 34-14 for the season, and Gabe at 31-17. This week, I'll be leading off.




Instead of using the Vegas Hilton odds that Gabe's used the last two weeks, I'm using the Sheridan odds from the USA Today. So here's our week 4 picks....by the spread...because picking straight up is for pansies.

(Gabe Edit: I don't have much time to do this, so there will be little to no commentary from me for this week, just picks.)




Raiders(+8.5) at Texans




Dave: Raiders-I know I said I wasn't co-signing JaMarcus Russell anymore and this pick is sure to come back to bite me in the ass. However, Andre Johnson for whatever reason(read: Nmandi Asomugha) struggles against Oakland. In his last two games against the Raiders, Andre 3000 has three catches for 28 yards. Combined. I'm sure that's going to be the "Neither Here Nor There" Stat of the Week, but with Slaton starting slow, it's hard to like the Texans by 3 field goals if the offense sputters. I like Houston to win....but by a touchdown.

Gabe: Raiders - I like the Texans to win outright, but until they can prove otherwise, 8.5 is too big of a number for the Texans to be favored over anyone.




Titans(-3) at Jaguars




Dave: Titans-The Titans are far better than their 0-3 record would indicate and the Jags' lone win came on a lucky fumble at the goal-line last week after the Texans drove down the field on them for what would have been the winning score. I know I said it last week, but I just can't see Jeff Fisher letting his boys drop another one. Titans bounce back big, win by 10.

Gabe: Titans - The Jags have no pass defense. This game is for the Titans' season. Lose and they are done for the year, already. Old Man Collins will take advantage of this will win by more than a field goal.


Ravens(+2) at Patriots


Dave: Ravens-Vegas still loves Tom Brady and the Pats......I don't. The Ravens have finally put it together on both sides of the ball, whereas New England is swiss-cheese on D and rusty on O. Ravens continue their dominance and topple Brady's Bunch at home.

Gabe: Ravens - Good defense beats good offense. Great defense beats a middling offense trading on big names and history. I can't believe the Raven are the dog in this game. I'll take them for the straight up win.


Cincinatti(-6) at Cleveland


Dave: Cincinatti-I really shouldn't have to explain this one, so I won't. I will say that Common dissing Brady Quinn at The House of Blues WITH QUINN IN THE AUDIENCE.....moves him up a few spots on my list of favorite rappers. Bengals win in a laugher as Browns start dialing up Charlie Weis.

Gabe: Cincy - The Bengals offense is starting to look really good, especially the passing game. The Browns would have trouble beating the Cincinnati Bearcats, much less the Bengals. Bengals win big.


Giants(-8.5) at Chiefs


Dave: Chiefs-Chiefs coach Todd Haley has instilled some spunk into this bunch and they aren't as mediocre as they seem. Remember, they gave a Ravens team that might be the best in the league all they could handle in the opener. The Giants, while dominant and possessing a pass rush that will certainly murder this Chiefs turnstile offensive line, are a bit soft against the run. Does that mean I like the Chiefs to win? Hell No! But KC has enough firepower on O(assuming Dwayne Bowe comes back this week) and they're always tough at Arrowhead, so this should be closer than three field goals. Giants by 7.

Gabe: Giants - The Chiefs are getting better, but are still near the bottom of the league. The Giants have momentum and are still the best road team in the league. Giants by at least 10.



Lions(+10) at Bears




Dave: Lions-Against a Seahawks team that was without 8 starters, the Bears needed an implosion from Seahawk kicker Olindo Mare and a lucky collision between two Seattle defenders on the game-winning score to scrape out a win. The Lions are motivated after their first win since 2007 and, so far this season, they've played teams tough. They won't get win #2, but I like them to lose by less than double digits.

Gabe: Lions - 10 points is too big of a number for the Bears to cover. The Bears win, but not by much.


Bucs(+7.5) at Redskins


Dave: Bucs-Rams. Redskins. JaMarcus Russell. Eric Mangini. Four things I believe in less than religion. Josh Johnson is better than people think and this Skins team plays down to its opponents. Bucs are healthier and will pull off the close upset.

Gabe: Bucs - The Redskins need to be included in any conversation about the worst organizations and teams in the league. The Bucs might not win, but there is no way Washington wins by more than a touchdown.



Seahawks(+10) at Colts


Dave: Colts-Peyton Manning vs. a beat-up secondary? At home? I like those odds. Colts by two touchdowns.

Gabe: Colts - For the same reasons Dave said. Seattle is beat up. Peyton Manning is at home.


Jets(+7) at Saints


Dave: Jets-In an epic clash between a top defense and a top offense, defense always wins out. Even if that defense is short three cornerbacks and is going on the road against the best QB in the league and is starting a rookie QB. Jets by 3.

Gabe: Saints - Drew Brees' comments in the media this week were very quietly confident. He is one of the best pin-point passers in the league and he will use this ability to carve up the Jets defense. I think they shake the Jets early and win big.



Bills(PK) at Dolphins


Dave: Bills-I really don't understand why this is a pick'em. The Dolphins are 0-3 and starting a QB making his first pro start and their facing a defense that was able to slow down Drew Brees' passing attack last week(albeit in a losing effort). Plus, Buffalo gets Marshawn Lynch back and Fred Jackson might be the best running back you've never heard of. Bills by 6.

Gabe: Bills - Fred Jackson in. Chad Pennington out. Chad Henne in. I'll take the Bills.


Rams(+9.5) at Niners


Dave: Niners-Here's how you know your having a bad season.....when you're starting Kyle Boller at QB...and its an UPGRADE! Niners should be 3-0 right now and they won't fall asleep against Nellyville...at least not before being up 21 at halftime. Niners by 17.

Gabe: 49er's - The San Fran D. is going to chew up and spit out Kyle Boller. 'Nuff said.



Cowboys(-3) at Broncos


Dave: Broncos-Any other quarterback leading that last drive this past Monday night, literally ANY OTHER QUARTERBACK, but Jake Delhomme leading that last drive, and the Cowboys lose that game. Unlike Carolina last week, the Broncos have a pulse on defense. Also, unlike last week, the Cowboys' best offensive threat Felix Jones will not be playing. That means Tony Romo tosses a couple picks and the Cowboys lose.......unlike last week. Also, the over/under on Flozell Adams' penalties is at 5.

Gabe: Broncos - They are at home. Romo stinks. That is all.

Chargers(+6.5) at Steelers


Dave: Chargers- The Steelers just don't have an identity with Troy Polamalu out of the lineup and now they'll be without Willie Parker. Also, factor in the added distraction of having your star quarterback hosting Monday Night Raw on the Monday leading up to one of the biggest games of your season(especially when said quarterback now has to worry about a trial for rape allegations in the near future). Chargers get LT back at the right time and Rivers-to-Jackson looks mighty good with no Polamalu over the top.

Gabe: Chargers - 6.5 is too many points. If the Steelers win at all it will be close.



Packers(+3.5) at Vikings


Dave: Vikings- Look, I want to be a homer and take my boys for the fourth straight week, but facts are facts. When your offensive line has given up 12 sacks in three games and your defense has allowed 100 yard rusher in the past 2 weeks and your facing the league's best pass rusher(Jared Allen) and the league's best runner(AP, as if you didn't know), even the most biased of fans have trouble taking those odds. Plus, when the other team has two recovering alcoholics on their roster(Allen and Benedict Favre's Rotting Corpse), fate is on their side. I'd love to see the Pack Attack smash Favre into the ground, but I just can't see it.

Gabe: Packers - Aaron Rodgers seems to be forgotten in all of the Brett Favre drama. As much as Favre wants to stick it to his old team, Rodgers wants to show that the Packers were right in going with him. I'll take the Packers to win in my...wait for it...Upset Special!!

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