Sunday, November 6, 2011

Week 9 Picks

2011 hasn't been a great year for the Puerto Rican community. Jennifer Lopez got divorced. Ricky Martin failed making a comeback and NYC's prodigal son, Gabe Rodriguez, continues to get pounded like a Kardashian's ass during NBA All-Star Weekend. Dave, however, tacked on another three wins to his lead over Il Chupacobra and matched his best win total for the season with 9(including hitting the last five of last week's games).

Week 9 starts a new month. A new month that just so happens to be the birth month of the dynamic duo. Will it still be Dave-ember? Or will the 11th month of '11 be forever known as Novem-Gabe?

Let's get it!

LAST WEEK
Dave: 9-4
Gabe: 6-7

SEASON
Dave: 60-49-7
Gabe: 43-66-7

Jets (+2.5) at Bills

Dave: Jets - Gang Green may be the worst good team in the NFL. They can't run the ball. They can't really rush the passer and the only consistant threat to score they have is Santonio Holmes, who needs to make half the defense miss to get into the end zone. Still, Rex Ryan's D is tricky enough to at least hinder Fred Jackson and Revis Island is going to blanket Stevie Johnson, taking away Ryan Fitzpatrick's only option. This is probably the toughest pick for me this week, but I'll go Jets by 6.

Gabe: New York - Buffalo could go a long way to turning the AFC East into a two team race by winning today. The Jets really need this win to keep pace with Buffalo and New England. This is the first time this Buffalo team has been in such a big game and I think they are going to be feeling the pressure. The Jets have been here before. I’ll take the Jets to take care of business and win by a touchdown.


Seahawks (+11) at Cowboys

Dave: Cowboys - This is the kind of game where Tony Romo pads his stats and that leads to a week's worth of "Romo's back!" hyperbole on ESPN with Skip Bayless spitting all over himself while he goes homo for Romo. The Seahawks will be trotting out Tarvaris Jackson this week, but they could have Jim Zorn out there and it won't make much of a difference. Dallas is pissed after being taken to the shed last week on national TV, so I think they take it out on the lowly Hawks. Cowboys by 17.

Gabe: Seattle - I know Seattle sucks, but I can’t trust Dallas to beat Charlottesville High School by more than eleven. I think Dallas wins, but by ten or fewer.

Falcons (-6.5) at Colts

Dave: Falcons - Do I really need to explain this one? Really? Here's a fun stat for you: Through 7.5 games, Curtis Painter has 5 passing TD's. Five. Or as many as Big Ben had against Tennessee a couple weeks ago. Seriously. Five touchdowns. In a league where nobody plays pass defense anymore. In a league where Cam Newton looks like the second coming of Roger Staubach. Five touchdowns. S.M.H. Falcons by 20.

Gabe: Atlanta - One of these weeks the Colts are going to fuck around and win a game. Not today. They are going to see a healthy dose of Atlanta’s passing game to start the game. Atlanta will build a lead and then pound the ball on the ground to control the clock. Falcons by 10.

Dolphins (+4) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs - I guess with no basketball this month, the NFL decided to give us a few lay-ups of their own. I'm not sure the exact number but I believe Kansas City is something like 4,692-13 at home in the final two months of the season. They are on a four game win streak and could have sole possession of first place by this time next Monday thanks to some lucky scheduling(San Diego has Green Bay this week, then fellow first place Oakland in four days....Kansas City, meanwhile, get Miami today and Denver next week.) Dolphins are trying to outsuck Indy for Andrew Luck so I don't expect much of a fight here. KC by 10.

Gabe: Kansas City - The Chiefs seem to be getting things right. They have gotten a few lucky breaks (Philip Rivers’ mishandling a snap) in cobbling together four wins in a row. The Dolphins have not been finishing games well. The Chiefs defense has been living on sacks a turnover in recent games. I think they’ll have the opportunity to get both against the fish. Miami might have a fighting chance, but I like the Chiefs at home by a touchdown.

Bucs (+7.5) at Saints

Dave: Saints - Two things here: Saints are coming off a upset loss(which I saw coming but still picked N.O. anyway) last week to St. Louis. The last time these two teams met, the Bucs escaped with a win and broke Sean Payton's leg. With how up and down New Orleans has been this year, I say this is the week they let the guns out like Tony Montana in the final scene of Scarface. A little more than a touchdown might be a stretch because Tampa Bay actually is better than people think, but I'm rolling the dice on revenge here. Saints by 9.

Gabe: Tampa Bay - The Saints were stunned last week and really need to get a win today against the Bucs keep a little distance in the division. If LeGarrette Blount is in the line up for the Bucs, the Saints could be in for a long day. The Saints need to handle the ball because they’ve been beating themselves lately with turnovers. I think the Saints win, but by less than a TD.

49ers (-4.5) at Redskins

Dave: 49ers - My Redskins friends kept trying to warn me all season. "Dave, I know we're 3-1, but we suck. Trust me. We're gonna lose this week...and next week...and the week after...". And I kept trying to be the optimist and I kept ignoring them. Now, I'm done trying to play glass half full with these Redskins. The Niners may be the most suspect 6-1 team in history, but they'll waltz to 7-1 here against a Redskins team lining up for Landry Jones in April. Niners by 10.

Gabe: - I said it before, I’ll say it again….John Beck is going to have show me something before I pick the Skins to win again. Niners by 6.

Browns (+10.5) at Texans

Dave: Browns - Am I the only one who sees Chris Ogbonnaya, plucked off Houston's practice squad by Cleveland two weeks ago and now getting his first start, becoming a fantasy breakout star against his former team and further cementing the Madden Curse on Peyton Hillis by putting a stranglehold on the starting RB job? Probably, but the Browns aren't horrible defensively and 10.5 points is a lot to give up even if this is the crappy Browns. My gut says this one's closer than it needs to be. Texans by 9.

Gabe: Houston - Houston has been on a roll. They really want to put their foot on the neck of the rest of the division, and to do that they need to keep winning. Cleveland is not living up to expectations and had a bit of locker room drama this week, with some veterans calling out Peyton Hillis in a players only intervention style meeting. Cleveland is not playing well, Houston has momentum, I say the Texans by 14.

Bengals (+3) at Titans

Dave: Bengals - I didn't see this Bengals team coming. 5-2 with a rookie QB and WR as your two best players on offense? Crazy. Meanwhile, the world lost Andy Rooney yesterday but the fantasy football world lost Chris Johnson a couple months ago and there has yet to be a formal service for his passing. The Bengals play stingy D and with the Titans without Kenny Britt(torn ACL), and Chris Johnson(starting, but possibly dead from a cash coma), there won't be much offense on Tennessee's end. Bengals by 12.

Gabe: Bengals - The Bengals are paper tigers, but Tennessee is dealing with injuries and uninspired play. The Cincy offense is young and dumb enough to think they might be able to play with the big boys. Marvin Lewis is showing everyone why he was once called a defensive genius. I'll take the Bengals for the outright win in a small upset.

Packers (-5.5) at Chargers

Dave: Chargers - When you're up 17 games on your weekly picks opponent, you can afford to punt a game by attempting the reverse jinx so that your favorite team can remain undefeated. As a Packers fan, I want my boys to pull out a victory over what might be their toughest opponent all season. As a football fan, though, I want this Chargers loss to be the final straw for A.J. Smith and Norv Turner. Enough's enough now. This team has had enough talent over the past decade to win numerous Super Bowls and they've blown it. Now, they're on the verge of choking away another AFC West title. Fire these two idiots and bring in Jon Gruden because, as a human being, getting him out of the booth will be beneficial to everyone.

Gabe: Green Bay - San Diego has all of the potential in the world and none of the results. Their coach is soft. Their QB has issues between the ears. They aren’t tough as a team. Green Bay has none of those issues. I think Green Bay is going to roll and win by double digits.

Broncos (+7) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - Quick question: If Tony Romo and Tim Tebow are drowning in the ocean and ESPN can only save one, who gets to live? (The answer is Tom Brady because Romo will find a way to still choke in a liferaft and Tebow can't drown because he can walk on water.). There aren't enough words to describe how awful this Broncos team is but Timmy Touchdown at least makes them interesting. Not interesting enough for an upset over a Raiders team trying to stay afloat in the AFC West, but interesting enough.

Gabe: Oakland - Denver is awful, especially with Tebow under center. Oakland is going to punch them in the mouth and win big.

Giants (+9.5) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - New England's coming off a loss, the Giants are without Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks, and you know there's been a non-stop loop of "The Helmet Catch" somewhere to remind the Pats of the last time these two teams met(Gabe's still trying to sleep off the hangover from that night). The Pats' D is bad enough to keep this one close but Eli Manning will find a way to keep that from happening by throwing at least two bonehead picks this week. Pats by 10.

Gabe: New York - The Giants’ end of season schedule is brutal, and it starts today in New England. I think the Giants have a slight chance in this one. They are the team that perfected the formula to beating, and beating up, Tom Brady. The Giants’ pass rush is still the scariest in the NFL. I think their only chance is to let the boys pin their ears back and get after Brady. I also like the Giants’ receivers against the Patriot secondary. That being said, no one is better at scheming and exploiting weaknesses than Head Coach Hoodie and no one is better at carving a defense than Tom Terrific. I think this game is going to be close, and 9.5 is too many points.

Rams (+2.5) at Cardinals

Dave: Rams - Sam Bradford's back for St. Louis and Kevin Kolb's out for Arizona. The Rams got their first win last week against New Orleans. If they can pull out a win here, as Lou Brown would say, that is what we would call a "win streak". The Rams are better than their 1-6 record and I think they prove it here. Also, Bradford(currently with three TD passes after missing the last two weeks) will pass Curtis Painter on the TD pass leader list by night's end. Take it to the bank. Rams by 7.

Gabe: St. Louis- Here we are again. The game I wouldn’t watch even if it were being played in my driveway. I’ll take the Rams because they at least have some fight in them, which is more than you can say for Arizona.

Ravens (+3) at Steelers

Dave: Steelers - The last time these two teams met, the Ravens opened up a can of whoop ass to the tune of five turnovers for Big Ben and a 35-7 rout in B-more. Since then, the Ravens have tried their hardest to prove that game was a fluke, losing to teams like Tennessee and Jacksonville and going down 24-3 at the half to Arizona before narrowly winning last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, aren't as alive as many think but aren't quite dead either. They're on life support. They also want to get revenge on a Ravens team that was unwilling to take the boot off their neck in Week 1. My big money fantasy team has Mike Wallace, Big Ben and Ray Rice going tonight, so I'm hoping for a shootout. More likely, Steelers win by 6 in a clone of yesterday's LSU-'Bama offensive struggle.

Gabe: Pittsburgh - Hopefully this will be another smash mouth, old school, classic football game. These teams are both playing much differently than the first time they met. Pittsburgh has found their stride and I think they win a hard hitting nasty game, by 4.

Bears (+7.5) at Eagles

Dave: Eagles - I really would like a Philly loss here just to end all the glad-handing over a Eagles resurgence that's been going on the last few weeks, but Chicago doesn't have enough on either side of the ball to both keep up with Philly and stop Mike Vick from going nuts. Jason Babin is going to get aquainted with Jay Cutler a few times, but if Chicago's smart, they lean on Matt Forte heavy and keep Vick off the field and put up points by exploiting that terrible Eagles run D. That's if they're smart though. Eagles by 9.

Gabe: Chicago - Fact, Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears as a starter. Fact, the Bears beaten Philly three out of the last four times they’ve played. All that being said, each of the last five match-ups have been decided by five points or less, so why would this one be any different? I don’t think it will be. Either team by a field goal.

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