The Indianapolis Colts, in a 2011 season that has been hard to watch sans Peyton Manning, have positioned themselves nicely into the co-pilot spot for Stanford wunderkind and unanimous 2012 #1 overall pick Andrew Luck(along with the Dolphins). Through eight weeks, the Colts have a one game edge over their hapless South Beach counterparts, as they stand at 0-8 to M-I-A's 0-7.
While prognosticators have the Dolphins picked to inevitably win the Luck Sweepstakes, the question that has been floating for weeks is "What if the Colts get the first pick this April?". The majority seems to think that the Colts would tab Luck to be their heir apparent to Peyton Manning, who will be 37 and coming off neck surgery next season, but well-known voices such as former Giants QB Phil Simms seem to think otherwise. Simms has even taken his stance out on the limb a step further by openly wondering what all the fuss is about with the kid described as the best QB prospect in decades.
Luck's numbers are nothing short of astonishing in his junior season. He's completing 71 % of his passes for a little over 2,200 yards with 23 touchdowns to just four picks on a Stanford team that's currently 8-0. This comes off a redshirt sophomore season that saw him complete 70.7% of his passes for 3,338 yards with a 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The knock on Luck is he's had the benefit of feasting on soft Pac-10 defenses his entire career and that a lot of the hype is over-exaggerated. Simms himself said he's yet to see enough pro-quality throws to jump on the Luck bandwagon. Luck's passed every test so far. Even while unloading on the UCLAs and Oregon States of the world through the regular season, Luck still tore apart a solid defense in Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last year and, this season, he seems poised to do the same against any one of the SEC's biggest and baddest that Luck's Cardinal's draw in the postseason. Still, after guys like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush(and Ryan Leaf before them) failed miserably to live up to the insane amount of hype they were given coming out of college, it's not too insane for guys like Simms to be a bit cautious before placing a guy like Luck atop the NFL's pedestal, even if they are in the minority. Remember, there were people who thought Leaf would be better than Manning in 1998 and some of those same people thought Bush was the next Gale Sayers.
Still, we won't know how Luck fares in the pros until he's actually in the pros and the Colts have to mull over the very real possibility that it will be them and maybe not the Dolphins that leads off April's Draft. Here are some of the pros and cons of the Colts tabbing Luck as their #1 pick.
Why The Colts Should Draft Andrew Luck: Nobody knows how Manning is going to recover from neck surgery. Most "experts" thought he would only miss Week 1 of this season, and even that theory was fought tooth and nail by Manning's teammates as well as numerous analysts. Now, it's Week 9 and there's no sign that Manning is coming back this season(nor should he, given that the Colts' season is over). By drafting Luck, the Colts are at least safeguarding themselves from the possibility that Manning's days are numbered. On top of that, they'll be to have "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning" being mentored by......Peyton Manning. That gives the Colts the "pass the torch" advantage that teams like Denver and Miami are still trying to master after the departures of John Elway and Dan Marino, respectfully, and that teams like Green Bay have managed to benefit from. Whatever you think Luck will be as a pro, the consensus is that he's the best player in the draft. The Colts, which have pretty much killed Manning's chances of another Super Bowl run with some piss-poor drafting over the years, will now be in a position where not even they can mess this up(unless, of course, Luck is Leaf 2.0, but it would be harder to kill them for that than if they passed on Luck because they thought he was Leaf 2.0 and that ends up on not being the case).
The Colts need everything. Their running game is stagnant. The receiving corps are thin beyond Reggie Wayne, whose a free agent at year's end(not to mention, long in the tooth). The team hasn't produced a bonafide star on defense since finding Bob Sanders(who is now gone after many injury-riddled seasons) and Dwight Freeney(who will be 31 next year). Luck doesn't prevent them from catching another 62-7 beatdown like the Saints gave them two weeks ago in their Super Bowl rematch, but he's the surest thing in a draft filled with potential. If the Colts can manage to seamlessly transition from Manning, arguably the greatest QB of our era(at least statistically...we all know Brady's better) to Luck, the highest-rated prospect since '98, then they can spend the next two decades not having to worry about filling the hardest spot to fill on the NFL roster: Quarterback.
Why They Shouldn't Draft Luck: We've seen this before in Green Bay with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Eventhough it will be tough to justify passing on taking a successor when one like Luck falls in your lap(like Rodgers did in '05), it will be even tougher trying to explain to Manning(who has had to sit on the sidelines gritting his teeth and anxiously awaiting a medical green light to play) why you mortgaged the last remaining years of his NFL career by taking someone who doesn't help them at all next season if Manning is healthy. Again, we don't know how Manning heals from neck surgery. What if a year away from taking an NFL beating adds another half decade to his career? Look at what biceps surgery did for Favre after he left the Jets. It's not inconceivable that Manning plays into his early-40's if he recovers well enough. Then, there's the other reason Manning would oppose having Luck, and this is a point I have to give Simms his just due for making. As we've seen in Denver, fans can be very fickle when the product on the field doesn't meet their high standards. Suppose the Colts draft Luck and Manning starts off slow in his '12 comeback campaign, you think there isn't going to be a deafening amount of cries at Lucas Oil for Luck like there were in Denver for Tim Tebow this year?
The risk of angering Manning and running into another Favre-Rodgers-McCarthy-Thompson fiasco in Indy at least equalizes the potential of having lucked into Luck and also will have a long-term effect on the franchise for years to come. After all, if Luck's introduction to the NFL is as the catalyst for getting Peyton Manning ousted from Indianapolis before Mr. Laser Rocket Arm is ready, what can Luck expect when he gets up there in years and the Colts are again looking for their new franchise face? Guys like Manning are old school. Like Favre, Manning isn't going to let old men feasting on pretzels in a press box while penning Manning's demise on their iPad tell him when he has to hang them up. Favre played the "will I, won't I retire?" game with the media for so long that even his most devout followers realized he was doing it out of spite and a never-ending desire for attention and eventually washed their hands with him. The same could happen here for Manning. He may be a media darling now but it's funny how a man's demeanor can change when he feels like the same hands that once patted him on the back after a big game are now pushing him out of the door. We've seen rookie QBs come in and perform well from jump street but the potential of Luck is greatly improved if he's allowed to take the amicable side of playing Rodgers to Manning's Favre as opposed to the more dramatic side(although Rodgers and Favre not getting along hasn't seem to hurt the Packers now under the A-Rod era, but I imagine the Colts would like a relationship far less contentious between Manning and Luck).
So, what's the solution? The easy answer is for the Colts to trade the pick in hopes of getting something close to what the Chargers got for trading out of the top spot in 2001 and giving up the chance at Michael Vick to Atlanta(two firsts, two seconds and a couple players). Although any team that will be willing to pay a huge ransom for a shot at Luck probably is too thin on talent to give Indy anything worthwhile. For instance, we know Dan Snyder wouldn't be gun-shy on a deal for Luck, but what could the Redskins possibly give the Colts to sweeten the deal? Any picks, in theory, would be lower than in 2011 if Luck is what everyone says he is, and who does Washington have that would interest the Colts? DeAngelo Hall? Tim Hightower? LaRon Landry? The same goes for a team like Miami or Cleveland. You think Bill Polian is moving out of the top spot for a bunch of picks and Brandon Marshall or Peyton Hillis? Didn't think so.
Of course, this whole scenario becomes moot if the Colts find a way to not suck for Luck as much as Miami or Cleveland or Arizona do(an interesting scenario on par with the Colts picking first, however, would be if St. Louis ends up with the top spot. Do you trade the pick? Do you trade Sam Bradford? Hmmm...). Time will tell how juicy this story gets but it's something to keep an eye on in a season filled with inconsistent play from teams that play their home games outside of the state of Wisconsin.
While prognosticators have the Dolphins picked to inevitably win the Luck Sweepstakes, the question that has been floating for weeks is "What if the Colts get the first pick this April?". The majority seems to think that the Colts would tab Luck to be their heir apparent to Peyton Manning, who will be 37 and coming off neck surgery next season, but well-known voices such as former Giants QB Phil Simms seem to think otherwise. Simms has even taken his stance out on the limb a step further by openly wondering what all the fuss is about with the kid described as the best QB prospect in decades.
Luck's numbers are nothing short of astonishing in his junior season. He's completing 71 % of his passes for a little over 2,200 yards with 23 touchdowns to just four picks on a Stanford team that's currently 8-0. This comes off a redshirt sophomore season that saw him complete 70.7% of his passes for 3,338 yards with a 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The knock on Luck is he's had the benefit of feasting on soft Pac-10 defenses his entire career and that a lot of the hype is over-exaggerated. Simms himself said he's yet to see enough pro-quality throws to jump on the Luck bandwagon. Luck's passed every test so far. Even while unloading on the UCLAs and Oregon States of the world through the regular season, Luck still tore apart a solid defense in Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last year and, this season, he seems poised to do the same against any one of the SEC's biggest and baddest that Luck's Cardinal's draw in the postseason. Still, after guys like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush(and Ryan Leaf before them) failed miserably to live up to the insane amount of hype they were given coming out of college, it's not too insane for guys like Simms to be a bit cautious before placing a guy like Luck atop the NFL's pedestal, even if they are in the minority. Remember, there were people who thought Leaf would be better than Manning in 1998 and some of those same people thought Bush was the next Gale Sayers.
Still, we won't know how Luck fares in the pros until he's actually in the pros and the Colts have to mull over the very real possibility that it will be them and maybe not the Dolphins that leads off April's Draft. Here are some of the pros and cons of the Colts tabbing Luck as their #1 pick.
Why The Colts Should Draft Andrew Luck: Nobody knows how Manning is going to recover from neck surgery. Most "experts" thought he would only miss Week 1 of this season, and even that theory was fought tooth and nail by Manning's teammates as well as numerous analysts. Now, it's Week 9 and there's no sign that Manning is coming back this season(nor should he, given that the Colts' season is over). By drafting Luck, the Colts are at least safeguarding themselves from the possibility that Manning's days are numbered. On top of that, they'll be to have "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning" being mentored by......Peyton Manning. That gives the Colts the "pass the torch" advantage that teams like Denver and Miami are still trying to master after the departures of John Elway and Dan Marino, respectfully, and that teams like Green Bay have managed to benefit from. Whatever you think Luck will be as a pro, the consensus is that he's the best player in the draft. The Colts, which have pretty much killed Manning's chances of another Super Bowl run with some piss-poor drafting over the years, will now be in a position where not even they can mess this up(unless, of course, Luck is Leaf 2.0, but it would be harder to kill them for that than if they passed on Luck because they thought he was Leaf 2.0 and that ends up on not being the case).
The Colts need everything. Their running game is stagnant. The receiving corps are thin beyond Reggie Wayne, whose a free agent at year's end(not to mention, long in the tooth). The team hasn't produced a bonafide star on defense since finding Bob Sanders(who is now gone after many injury-riddled seasons) and Dwight Freeney(who will be 31 next year). Luck doesn't prevent them from catching another 62-7 beatdown like the Saints gave them two weeks ago in their Super Bowl rematch, but he's the surest thing in a draft filled with potential. If the Colts can manage to seamlessly transition from Manning, arguably the greatest QB of our era(at least statistically...we all know Brady's better) to Luck, the highest-rated prospect since '98, then they can spend the next two decades not having to worry about filling the hardest spot to fill on the NFL roster: Quarterback.
Why They Shouldn't Draft Luck: We've seen this before in Green Bay with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Eventhough it will be tough to justify passing on taking a successor when one like Luck falls in your lap(like Rodgers did in '05), it will be even tougher trying to explain to Manning(who has had to sit on the sidelines gritting his teeth and anxiously awaiting a medical green light to play) why you mortgaged the last remaining years of his NFL career by taking someone who doesn't help them at all next season if Manning is healthy. Again, we don't know how Manning heals from neck surgery. What if a year away from taking an NFL beating adds another half decade to his career? Look at what biceps surgery did for Favre after he left the Jets. It's not inconceivable that Manning plays into his early-40's if he recovers well enough. Then, there's the other reason Manning would oppose having Luck, and this is a point I have to give Simms his just due for making. As we've seen in Denver, fans can be very fickle when the product on the field doesn't meet their high standards. Suppose the Colts draft Luck and Manning starts off slow in his '12 comeback campaign, you think there isn't going to be a deafening amount of cries at Lucas Oil for Luck like there were in Denver for Tim Tebow this year?
The risk of angering Manning and running into another Favre-Rodgers-McCarthy-Thompson fiasco in Indy at least equalizes the potential of having lucked into Luck and also will have a long-term effect on the franchise for years to come. After all, if Luck's introduction to the NFL is as the catalyst for getting Peyton Manning ousted from Indianapolis before Mr. Laser Rocket Arm is ready, what can Luck expect when he gets up there in years and the Colts are again looking for their new franchise face? Guys like Manning are old school. Like Favre, Manning isn't going to let old men feasting on pretzels in a press box while penning Manning's demise on their iPad tell him when he has to hang them up. Favre played the "will I, won't I retire?" game with the media for so long that even his most devout followers realized he was doing it out of spite and a never-ending desire for attention and eventually washed their hands with him. The same could happen here for Manning. He may be a media darling now but it's funny how a man's demeanor can change when he feels like the same hands that once patted him on the back after a big game are now pushing him out of the door. We've seen rookie QBs come in and perform well from jump street but the potential of Luck is greatly improved if he's allowed to take the amicable side of playing Rodgers to Manning's Favre as opposed to the more dramatic side(although Rodgers and Favre not getting along hasn't seem to hurt the Packers now under the A-Rod era, but I imagine the Colts would like a relationship far less contentious between Manning and Luck).
So, what's the solution? The easy answer is for the Colts to trade the pick in hopes of getting something close to what the Chargers got for trading out of the top spot in 2001 and giving up the chance at Michael Vick to Atlanta(two firsts, two seconds and a couple players). Although any team that will be willing to pay a huge ransom for a shot at Luck probably is too thin on talent to give Indy anything worthwhile. For instance, we know Dan Snyder wouldn't be gun-shy on a deal for Luck, but what could the Redskins possibly give the Colts to sweeten the deal? Any picks, in theory, would be lower than in 2011 if Luck is what everyone says he is, and who does Washington have that would interest the Colts? DeAngelo Hall? Tim Hightower? LaRon Landry? The same goes for a team like Miami or Cleveland. You think Bill Polian is moving out of the top spot for a bunch of picks and Brandon Marshall or Peyton Hillis? Didn't think so.
Of course, this whole scenario becomes moot if the Colts find a way to not suck for Luck as much as Miami or Cleveland or Arizona do(an interesting scenario on par with the Colts picking first, however, would be if St. Louis ends up with the top spot. Do you trade the pick? Do you trade Sam Bradford? Hmmm...). Time will tell how juicy this story gets but it's something to keep an eye on in a season filled with inconsistent play from teams that play their home games outside of the state of Wisconsin.
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