NFL Week 3 Picks

 Everything we thought we knew about this season after Week 1 got hit with a Uno reverse after Week 2. Here’s some weird stats to think about going into Week 3:

1. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, only nine are still undefeated after two weeks. Minnesota and New Orleans are two of them while Baltimore and Cincinnati are still searching for their first win. 

2. The NFL’s five highest paid quarterbacks — Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa — have a combined nine touchdowns. That's the same amount as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, who are on their fourth team after going 1-2 in the 2018 draft. 

3. Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards despite not having Christian McCaffrey and getting minimal production from Brandon Aiyuk

4. Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, the last two number one overall picks, have yet to throw for a touchdown. Malik Willis, acquired for a seventh-round pick a month ago by the Green Bay Packers and thrust into the starting lineup after Jordan Love went down with a MCL strain, has one. 

5. Aiden Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks in one game last week and somehow still didn’t win NFC Defensive Player of the Week. 

Speaking of last week, league-wide upsets took its toll on our overall record. Here’s hoping we get better fortune and some clarity this week:

Last Week: 6-10

Season: 15-16-1

Patriots at Jets (-6.5)

The NFL continues to tinker with league rules in an effort to improve player safety but somehow found a way to schedule the Jets to play three times in 11 days despite their 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. Great work. 

Aaron Rodgers showed flashes of his old self last week against Tennessee but still has yet to clear 176 yards passing this season. He now draws a surprisingly stout Patriots defense on four days rest. The Jets have too much talent to lose this game at home but, until the offense lives up to its potential, they might find it hard to pull away from New England enough to cover the touchdown spread. Jets win. Pats cover.

Pick: Patriots 

Week 2 NFL Picks

 The NFL’s opening week was a rough one for knee ligaments, crooked cops and the Giants’ front office but a relatively decent one for me. 

Let’s see if we can’t do better in Week 2.

Last Week: 9-6-1

Season: 9-6-1

Bills at Dolphins (-2.5)

The Miami-Dade PD’s treatment of Tyreek Hill was a disgusting (yet sadly, typical) display of force. The cops responsible need to be fired and I hope Cheetah sues them for everything they’re worth.

As for tonight’s game, Josh Allen didn’t seem to miss Stefon Diggs too much and the Bills’ defense did a good job of terrorizing Kyler Murray (162 yards passing, sacked four times, one lost fumble) but it’s hard to see them slowing down Tua’s team of track stars even without Raheem Mostert. This will be a fun one but give me the Phins at home. 

Pick: Dolphins 

Colts at Packers (+2.5)

The Packers dodged a bullet with Jordan Love suffering “only” an MCL strain that could keep him out anywhere between 2-6 weeks. The NFL also dodged a bullet that nobody else was seriously injured playing on that glorified slip n’ slide in Brazil. The league has spent years modifying the game to help with player safety but seems stone-stupid when it comes to doing their due diligence on field conditions. 

The Colts might have impressed me the most of all the teams who played last week. They hung with a very good Texans team and Anthony Richardson looks like he shook off his preseason rust. It’s hard to imagine he’ll have much trouble with a Packers defense that let Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley walk all over them. As for Green Bay, it’s now or never for Malik Willis. If he can show off the wheels and big arm that made him an intriguing prospect in 2022, he has a chance to make himself some money down the road. If he can’t, it’s hard to imagine him ever getting another opportunity. After watching him flop the last two plays of the final drive against Philly, my money is on the latter. 

Pick: Colts 

Saints at Cowboys (-6)

I couldn’t have been more wrong about either of these teams last week. Dallas found a way to pay Dak Prescott and then dominate Cleveland on both sides of the ball while New Orleans made a mockery of Carolina. Derek Carr looks like he’s back from the dead but he stands to have a tougher time lighting it up against the Cowboys than he did against the Panthers. Six points might be steep for two good defensive teams and the Saints have had the Cowboys’ number in the past but I’m willing to be wrong yet again.

Pick: Cowboys

Bucs at Lions (-7.5)

It had to be tough for Browns fans to watch what’s left of Deshaun Watson while the man he replaced was lighting it up elsewhere. Baker Mayfield proved, at least for one week, that last year was no fluke. The Lions might be the best team in the NFC but that defense gave up 300+ yards to Matt Stafford despite star wideout Puka Nakua missing most of the game with a knee injury. Detroit still takes it but it’s hard to imagine them slowing the Bucs’ offense down enough to win by more than a touchdown. 

Pick: Bucs

Jets at Titans (+4)

The Jets are going to be in a battle with their expectations all season and their opener against the Niners was a letdown but the schedule eases up for them in the coming weeks, starting with a Titans team that somehow managed to blow a 17-0 lead and lose to the Bears despite not giving up an offensive touchdown. If Will Levis struggled against the Bears’ secondary, he’s really going to hate Sauce Gardner and Co. Jets win a defensive struggle while Aaron Rodgers still finds his footing. 

Pick: Jets 

Niners at Vikings (+6)

The Niners didn’t need Christian McCaffery to run all over the Jets and, regardless of whether CMC suits up this week or not, they should have little trouble on the road against the Vikings. Congrats to Sam Darnold for finally having a good game in the Meadowlands but going from  the Giants to the Niners will prove to be too high of a leap. 

Pick: Niners 

Seahawks at Patriots (+3.5)

Fresh off holding Ja’Marr Chase to three catches for 14 yards in New England’s upset win over Cincinnati, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez continues his Comeback Player of the Year campaign against human cyborg DK Metcalf and the Seahawks. Seattle may be without running back Kenneth Walker and, if Gonzalez can put the clamps on Metcalf, the Seahawks might struggle to pull away from the Patriots much like they did against the Broncos last week. It’s crazy to think this one could be a toss-up but I think New England, at worst, covers. 

Pick: Patriots 

Giants at Commanders (-1.5)

It’s only been one game but it’s time for the Giants to pull the plug on Daniel Jones. Entering year six, Danny Dimes continues to prove he has no business being an NFL starting quarterback and the fans have already turned on him. Making matters worse, Saquon Barkley (who the Giants let walk to Philly in the offseason) balled out in his Eagles debut. Regardless of who is behind center for Big Blue, I can’t fathom taking the Giants in any matchup this season. Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal and that point will be amplified this Sunday against a bad Giants team. 

Pick: Commanders 

Browns at Jaguars (-3)

Four years ago, Deshaun Watson was a three-time Pro Bowler and one of the league’s rising star QBs. Now, he’s an off-the-field menace and the owner of the worst contract in football. Much like the Giants, the Browns must decide when’s the right time to cut the cord on their bad investment. Jameis Winston has his flaws but he’s a better leader than Watson could ever be and benching their $230 million problem child sends a hell of a message. The Jags might face a similar issue if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t make strides but he’s good enough to beat a Browns team in a state of flux. 

Pick: Jaguars

Chargers at Panthers (+6)

Things were supposed to be different for the Carolina Panthers this season. They brought in a new coach who could develop Bryce Young. They gave Young a slew of new weapons, but all that happened was more of the same. The Panthers were outclassed in every category you can think of last week and I don’t expect that to change against the Chargers. It might be time for a change of scenery for last year’s No. 1 pick. 

Jim Harbaugh cruises to 2-0. 

Pick: Chargers 

Raiders at Ravens (-8.5)

This is far from a must-win situation but this is certainly a narrative game for the loser. If the Raiders continue to struggle, it’s only a matter of time before WR Davante Adams loses his patience and wants out. If the Ravens go down 0-2, there’s going to be a lot of questions surrounding reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, who looked like a dink-and-dunk expert for most of the season-opening loss to Kansas City last week. The Ravens have more talent than the Raiders but 8.5 points is a tough sell until Baltimore can show it can protect their star QB. 

Pick: Raiders 

Rams at Cardinals (-1.5)

Marvin Harrison Jr. flopped in his NFL debut and Kyler Murray’s comments about not being required to get his rookie receiver the ball doesn’t help matters but there should be better days ahead for the former Ohio State star. 

Unfortunately, those days won’t start this Sunday against a Rams team that hung in there with the Lions on the road last week. Los Angeles has the coaching advantage and, until K1 and Maserati get on the same page, the offensive advantage. I have no idea why the Cards are favored in this one but give me L.A. 

Pick: Rams 

Steelers at Broncos (+2.5)

The football gods robbed us of a Russell Wilson redemption game against Denver with Mr. Unlimited being limited to another DNP due to a calf injury. The last time Justin Fields faced the Broncos (October of last season), he dropped 335 yards and four tuddies on Denver’s head as a member of the Chicago Bears. He still lost but my gut tells me things will be different this time against rookie Bo Nix, who had his moments last week but still has a ways to go.

Pick: Steelers

Bengals at Chiefs (-6)

The Bengals’ flop last week at home against what looked like a mediocre Patriots team was perplexing but not as perplexing as the team failing to lock up star receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Chase should be healthier this week after being slowed by an illness last week but the team will likely be without Tee Higgins again. That doesn’t bode well for them facing a Chiefs team that keeps finding new ways to move the ball. 

Pick: Chiefs 

Bears at Texans (-6.5)

“Generational talent” Caleb Williams notched a victory in his regular season debut against the Titans. “The next Patrick Mahomes” showed off all the skills that made him a top pick by throwing for….(checks notes)…93 yards and no touchdowns. It’s possible Williams was confounded by a stout Titans defense but he won’t have the luxury of Will Levis bailing him out this week as he faces actual top-10 QB CJ Stroud. Hopefully, the bright lights of primetime football inspire to be more Josh Allen and less Josh Rosen to at least make this competitive. Either way, I like Houston. 

Pick: Texans 

Falcons at Eagles (-6.5)

Saquon Barkley’s Eagles debut couldn’t have gone better last week as he ran over the Packers to the tune of 132 total yards and three total touchdowns. Barkley will continue to carry Philly until he breaks down or until Jalen Hurts learns to take better care of the ball (2 INTs, one lost fumble last week), whichever comes first. On the flip side, Atlanta clearly overestimated how ready Kirk Cousins and his repaired Achilles were before trotting out their $180 million investment against Pittsburgh. Philly’s defense put Jordan Love on the shelf and, given Cousins’ lack of mobility, Atlanta’s 36-year-old signal caller could easily go from Falcon to sitting duck. 

Pick: Eagles

Week 1 Picks/2024 NFL Predictions

 The 2024 NFL season kicks off in a few hours. So, let's skip the preamble and get after it, starting with the obligatory season predictions.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Assuming Hollywood Brown doesn’t miss much time with a shoulder injury and Rashee Rice avoids suspension for his Domenic Torretto impression, this will be the best supporting cast Mahomes has had since Tyreek Hill’s departure and could potentially be his best group yet. It’s chalk and it’s lame to pick Pat but he’s won the award twice before with less than what he has now. If he’s healthy, it’s his to lose. 

Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys 

Last season, Lamb led the league in targets (181) and receptions (135) en route to a 1,749 yard (2nd only to Tyreek Hill), 12 TD (third behind Hill and Mike Evans) campaign. This season, Lamb faces even less competition for touches on a Cowboys team that will need to pass the move the ball downfield. 200 targets is well within in the realm of possibility. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby, DE, Las Vegas Raiders 

Dating back to 2011, a pass rusher has won this award in 11 of the last 13 seasons including each of the last four. Crosby seemingly gets better every year and now has Christian Wilkins to take pressure off him on the defensive line. That should help him build on last year’s career-high 14.5 sack campaign. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marvin Harrison Jr, Arizona Cardinals

Maserati Marv is the best wide receiver prospect the NFL has seen in quite some time and he couldn’t have landed in a better situation. The Cardinals desperately needed a go-to guy for QB Kyler Murray and, 6’3” 209 pounds with 4.4 40 wheels, Harrison fits the bill. Arizona’s defense leaves much to be desired, which means Harrison should see a good amount of targets as the offense tries to keep up each week. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles 

Mitchell was arguably the best cover corner in the draft and now joins a revamped Eagles secondary that gets six games against fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott. Philadelphia’s out-of-division schedule also includes features five QBs who finished in the top 14 in interceptions last season. As Mitchell elevates up the depth chart, he should receive plenty of attention from teams trying to avoid Pro Bowler Darius Slay. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets 

If Rodgers can stay healthy (a huge IF coming off an Achilles tear at 40 years old), he has to be the favorite for this award. The four-time MVP showed signs of decline during his final season in Green Bay in 2022 before making it just four plays last year, but he returns this year with arguably the best offensive line, defense and supporting cast he’s ever played with. 

Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions 

Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have transformed the Lions from decades-long laughingstock to potential Super Bowl contenders. That alone should get Campbell’s name engraved on the award. The challenges for Detroit this season will be a much-improved NFC North and adjusting to not longer being able to fly under the radar but Campbell & Co. have the roster to do it. 

AFC Division Winners: Jets, Ravens, Chiefs, Texans

AFC Wild Card: Colts, Dolphins, Browns

NFC Division Winners: Eagles, Lions, Niners, Bucs

NFC Wild Card: Packers, Falcons, Seahawks 

AFC Championship: Jets over Chiefs 

My faith in the Jets is based on two bold predictions:

1. Aaron Rodgers stays healthy all season.
2. The Jets end up with Davante Adams at some point this year. 

With a strong defense and an embarrassment of riches on offense, the Jets could still get by without No.2 but last year proved they definitely can’t get by without No. 1. If Gang Green can somehow get Hassan Reddick to suit up, that would make their championship hopes even stronger. 

Also, we finally get Rodgers vs Mahomes after the latter lost to Zach Wilson last season. 

NFC Championship: Eagles over Lions

The Eagles shored up one of the league’s worst pass defenses by drafting rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean as well as bringing back C.J. Gardner Johnson. They also swapped out the disgruntled Hassan Reddick for Bryce Huff, coming off a 10-sack season with the Jets. Oh, and they added one of the league’s best young running backs in Saquon Barkley to an already-great offense. The Eagles will miss Jason Kelce on the offensive line and gambling on the oft-injured Barkley to stay healthy may prove unwise but the pieces are there for Philly to bounce back from last year’s letdown campaign. 

Super Bowl: Jets over Eagles

In a grand example of wishful thinking, Rodgers caps off his “F you” season by leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl in 55 years before riding off into the sunset. For years, we’ve written off the Jets because “it’s the Jets and nothing good ever happens to them”, but if that string of bad luck was to ever change, wouldn’t this be the roster that does it? 

On to Week 1...(lines courtesy of DraftKings)

Ravens at Chiefs (-3) 

The defending champions are 13-5 since the NFL introduced the kickoff game in 2002. Granted, one of those losses was Kansas City last season vs Detroit but the Chiefs were without Pro Bowlers Chris Jones (holdout) and Travis Kelce (knee). Now at nearly full strength (Marquise Brown is out), Patrick Mahomes should be able to improve on his 4-1 record over reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. 

Pick: Chiefs

Packers at Eagles (-2)

This game being held in Brazil might be one of the dumbest ideas the NFL ever conceived and the potential safety risks greatly outweigh the rewards. That aside, this will be an exciting showdown between two of the league’s best young QBs: Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Both teams made improvements to their awful defenses but veteran experience tips the scales in Philly’s favor.

Pick: Eagles 

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5)

Both teams will be lead by aging QBs seeking redemption with their new squads. 36-year-old Kirk Cousins takes over a Falcons team with a trio of young weapons in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts after his final season in Minnesota was cut short by an Achilles tear. Meanwhile, 35-year-old Russell Wilson is eager to remove the stench of his Broncos tenure while trying to keep fellow new acquisition Justin Fields from taking his job. Atlanta has the offensive advantage and may have just enough defense to limit Mr. Unlimited.

Pick: Falcons 

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5)

Well, well, well…how the turntables. A season ago, Bills QB Josh Allen was at the helm of a dangerous offense led by WR Stefon Diggs while the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray was in desperate need of a No. 1 receiver (or really any receiver). Now, Diggs (and partner Gabe Davis) are gone while Murray has a new toy in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Buffalo could still pull this one out at home but favoring a team with so many offensive question marks by a touchdown is too risky. Bills win, but Cardinals cover. 

Pick: Cardinals 

 

Titans at Bears (-3.5)

No first overall pick has entered into a better situation than Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams will walk into in Chicago. After failing to build around Justin Fields for years, the Bears added a Pro Bowl WR (Keenan Allen), a Pro Bowl RB (D’Andre Swift) and a top 10 overall pick (WR Rome Odunze) alongside four-time 1,000 yard receiver DJ Moore to aid the NFL’s latest “generational talent”. It remains to be seen whether head coach Matt Eberflus, who Bears fans were calling to get rid of last year, can help Williams and company reach their potential. 

However, don’t overlook the Titans, who made wholesale changes on both sides of the ball and the coaching staff in the offseason. I don’t expect Caleb Williams to succumb to the home opener jitters but I think this one will be closer than you think. 

Pick: Titans

Patriots at Bengals (-8.5)

There isn’t much to talk about here. In the first year of the post-Belichick era, the Patriots look awful in every facet of the game. QB Jacoby Brissett will take over behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line with arguably the league’s worst supporting cast while a patchwork defense tries to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals. 

This one could get ugly fast. 

Pick: Bengals 

 

Texans at Colts (+3)

I had high hopes for an Anthony Richardson redemption season, and it still might happen, but he looked rough in the preseason. Now, he starts his sophomore season off against a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations. C.J. Stroud will follow up his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign with two new weapons (WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon) while fellow Rookie of the Year Will Anderson now has former Vikings Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter at the other end. 

A-Rich will have his moments but he’s walking into a buzzsaw here.

Pick: Texans 

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5) 

This one has shootout potential. Salary cap woes and injuries shredded a once-promising Dolphins roster but the team is still going to play fast on offense. On the other side, the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence $275 million in the offseason hoping he’d finally make good on his “generational” potential. This will come down to whatever quarterback blinks first and my guess is Lawrence, who threw 14 picks last season and now faces a talented Miami secondary.

Pick: Dolphins

Panthers at Saints (-4)

There’s cause for optimism in Carolina. For one, there’s nowhere to go but up after going 2-14 last season. The team brought in a new coach in Dave Caneles and gave last year’s top pick Bryce Young some new weapons in Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks. 

Second, it’s possible the Panthers aren’t the worst team on the field Sunday. Saints QB Derek Carr has one winning season as a starter since 2016 and will drop back behind a patchwork offensive line with limited options beyond Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Neither Carr nor head coach Dennis Allen are long for the world in the Big Easy and it’s only a matter of time before the team turns the ball over to rookie Spencer Rattler and starts planing for next season. 

After essentially giving away Caleb Williams to get him, Young needs a bounce back season in the worst way and New Orleans is a good place to start. 

Pick: Panthers

Vikings at Giants (+1.5) 

I feel bad for anyone forced to have Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones on their television screens. While neither team have high hopes this season, it’s a little insulting oddsmakers see the Giants as home underdogs vs a 27-year-old QB on his fourth team in five seasons. This is a pick ‘em at best, but if you’re letting me take points, I will.

Pick: Giants 

Raiders at Chargers (-3)

Jim Harbaugh left a championship team in Michigan to take over a Chargers squad besieged by salary cap issues. The result is a revamped, bare-bones roster that will rely on a ground-and-pound offensive scheme and a talented defense to get by. The Raiders, meanwhile, are on borrowed time. After driving WR Davante Adams crazy all last season by forcing him to catch passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Aiden O’Connell, Las Vegas is gambling on Gardner Minshew being able to keep Adams content. If he can’t, expect the trade rumors that have surrounded the Pro Bowl wideout for over a year to keep circulating before coming to a head. I need to see more of these teams to get a better grasp on what to expect but Harbaugh’s a winner, so he gets my vote. 

Pick: Chargers 

Broncos at Seahawks (-6)

It’s Bo Time! After running Russell Wilson out of Denver, head coach Sean Payton tabbed Nix as his QB of the future. Nix played well in the preseason and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a day against a Seattle defense still adjusting to new coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme but the Seahawks have too much on O to not pull away in this one. 

Pick: Seahawks 

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5)

This has the makings of a rough season in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy, who should’ve been fired after losing to the seven seed Packers in the playoffs last season, is in the final year of his deal with no extension in sight. Dak Prescott, fresh off leading the league in touchdown passes, is also searching for a new deal that may not come. The defense, once a strong suit, already took some hits from the injury bug while the offensive line is replacing three starters. 

Making matters worse, they open up on the road against one of a Browns team that led the league in total defense and pass defense last season. Unless Deshaun Watson absolutely implodes, Cleveland should have this one well in hand. 

Pick: Browns

Commanders at Bucs (-3.5)

 This could be a fun one. Two former Heisman-winning QBs and two teams that finished in the bottom 10 in pass defense last season going head to head. Jayden Daniels has all the tools to be the best QB Washington has had in awhile but he doesn’t have the pieces around him just yet and the hiring of Dan Quinn isn’t enough to save this porous defense from getting ripped apart by a resurgent Baker Mayfield. I like the Bucs and the over (42.5 points).

Pick: Bucs 

Rams at Lions (-4.5)

The Lions and Rams met in the playoffs in Matt Stafford’s first game in Motown since being traded to Los Angeles. That game wound up being a 24-23 barnburner with Detroit escaping for its first playoff win in three decades.

Nine months later, both teams will do it again except Stafford will be missing some crucial parts on the defensive end. Future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired and rising star linebacker Ernest Jones was traded in the offseason, leaving an already depleted defensive unit in even worse condition. The Rams used a first-round pick on pass rusher Jared Verse but he’s going to have a tough time against a stout Lions offensive line. Detroit also made additions on defense, most notably rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold from Alabama. 

I expect this game to be as good as the one in January but not as close with the Lions putting the league on notice at home.

Pick: Lions

Jets at Niners (-4.5)

A potential Super Bowl matchup is devoid of some of the uncertainties it faced coming into this week. WR Brandon Aiyuk, who held out all offseason, got his new contract. The same for All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Christian McCaffrey, who missed all of the preseason with a hamstring injury, is believed to be good to go. So, we turn our attention to the Jets where Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the first time since tearing his Achilles on last season’s Monday night opener. Pass rusher Hassan Reddick? Well, he might not, as he awaits either a trade or a new deal or both. 

Even with two deep and talented offenses, it wouldn’t surprise me if this winds up being a defensive struggle. I give the edge to the Niners because they have a few less question marks and one less aging QB coming off a massive injury than their counterpart. 

Pick: Niners