Week 16 Picks

 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 106-112-5

A primetime sweep between Sunday night and Monday night kept Week 15 from being another dreadful performance but we’ve still managed to make it more difficult to finish the season above .500. 

Fortunately, there’s still three weeks left to regain momentum. On to Week 16.

Broncos at Chargers (-2.5)

The Broncos are either a potential land mine for whoever draws them in the first round or the biggest frauds in the AFC. In their nine wins this season, Denver is averaging 30 points per game and have hit that benchmark three times during their current four-game winning streak.

On the other hand, all of the Broncos’ wins have come against subpar competition while their five losses have come at the hands of potential playoff teams, including a Week 6 loss at home to this week’s opponent: the Los Angeles Chargers. 

However, a lot has changed since that 23-16 L in October. Bo Nix is closing the gap on Jayden Daniels for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and the defense continues to stifle opponents, allowing a league-best 17.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the banged-up Chargers have lost three of their last four. 

A win here wouldn’t be a statement game for the Broncos but it would be a nice momentum boost with Cincinnati and Kansas City on the horizon to close out the regular season.

Pick: Broncos 

Texans at Chiefs (-3.5)

This won’t be the shootout the NFL was hoping for when it put it on the schedule in the spring. CJ Stroud’s sophomore campaign has been a bit of a flop and, even with Hollywood Brown making his season debut, Patrick Mahomes isn’t likely to air it out against the Texans’ sixth-ranked pass defense. The weather won’t work in either team’s favor either, as it’s expected to be 30 degrees at Arrowhead around kickoff. The more likely scenario is a ground-and-pound defensive struggle with a couple big plays sprinkled in. That would give the edge to the Chiefs and their two-headed monster of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. 

Pick: Chiefs 

Steelers at Ravens (-7)

These Ravens-Steelers clashes are traditionally close, low-scoring affairs but the Steelers’ defense will have to work overtime to not only slow down one of the league’s best offenses but to compensate for an offense once again missing star receiver George Pickens. That’s a tough ask, especially with Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level and the Ravens being at home with a lot more to lose. At best, Pittsburgh can keep it close enough to cover but my money is on the Ravens making a statement.

Pick: Ravens

Giants at Falcons (-9.5)

The ATL is about to be filled with big Penix energy as the Falcons finally bid adieu to Capt. Kirk and turned the ball over to their QB of the future. Unless Penix is a complete abomination, there’s no way Atlanta doesn’t A-Town Stomp all over a Giants team that needs to protect its spot atop next year’s draft.

Pick: Falcons 

Lions at Bears (+7)

The Bears have lost eight straight and the offense has scored just three touchdowns in its last two games while Caleb Williams over-dramatically sells every big hit like he’s prime Shawn Michaels. The Lions need to get back on track after last week’s loss to the Bills to keep the Eagles and Vikings off their back. So, expect a blowout here.

Pick: Lions 

Browns at Bengals (-10)

The Browns deciding to bench Jameis Winston after three bad games when they sat through Deshaun Watson for seven weeks is a bit of a headscratcher. In truth, no QB on the roster could’ve saved Cleveland but it’s pretty obvious now the team is in full tank mode. The Bengals don’t have much to play for either but Joe Burrow and company can at least pad their stats to compensate for a lost season.

Pick: Bengals 

Titans at Colts (-3.5)

Speaking of QB changes, Will Levis is the past, Mason Rudolph is the present and Kirk Cousins is probably the future in Tennessee. It doesn’t matter who is under center for the Titans, the result will be the same. 

Pick: Colts 

Rams at Jets (+3)

Netflix made the right decision to use the Jets as the subject for a documentary. They just shouldn’t have stopped at legendary weirdo Aaron Rodgers. From the owner making trade decisions based on Madden ratings to the front office claiming they had to report to a teenager to Rodgers basing the validity of media criticism on vaccination statuses, this franchise needs to be studied. 

This game has the fifth-highest over/under of this week’s slate (47), which means Vegas is anticipating a shootout. Whether Rodgers has enough left in the clip to go shot for shot with Matt Stafford is uncertain but there’s no denying the Rams need this one to keep hold of the NFC West.

Pick: Rams 

Eagles at Commanders (+4)

It’s a shame Saquon Barkley might break one of the greatest records in football and still won’t win the MVP. The Commanders have been a fun story so far and these next three weeks will be interesting for their playoff hopes as well as Jayden Daniels’ ROY campaign but they don’t have enough on defense to slow down this Eagles’ juggernaut. 

Pick: Eagles 

Cardinals at Panthers (+5.5)

I thought the Call of Duty/Kyler Murray stuff was just a joke until I looked at the numbers. Since Black Ops 6 was released on Oct. 27, Murray has eight touchdowns (six passing) and five interceptions with three games where he didn’t find the end zone at all including last week against New England. Arizona is 4-4 during that span and went from first to third faster than the late Rickey Henderson. 

Bryce Young has been the anti-Kyler with a touchdown in every game since taking the job back from Andy Dalton in late October. That improved play hasn’t led to Ws but the Panthers seem a bit more motivated than the Cards, which is not something you would’ve said two months ago.

Pick: Panthers 

Vikings at Seahawks (+3)

Simply put, the Seahawks look cooked while the Vikings’ top seed hopes are suddenly alive again. The three-point spread is mildly insulting, to be honest.

Pick: Vikings 

Patriots at Bills (-14)

It seems like nothing can stand in the way of Josh Allen and the Bills, whether it’s the Lions or the Chiefs or a broken hand. However, if something could stand in the way of Buffalo covering a two-touchdown spread, even at home against lowly New England, it’s inclement weather and the feistiness of Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye. Pats keep it “close”.

Pick: Patriots 

Jaguars at Raiders (-2.5)

Both of these teams are wretched but the Jags have shown a feint pulse with Mac Jones at QB. The same can’t be said for the Raiders and the pu-pu platter they’ve had behind center this season.

Pick: Jaguars 

Niners at Dolphins (+1.5)

Let’s start by saying De’Vondre Campbell should never see his name on another NFL roster and his 2021 season will go down as the most random All-Pro campaign in recent memory. 

While Campbell may have waved the white flag early, his soon-to-be former team hasn’t despite fate being unkind to them this entire season. The Niners are down to their fourth starting running back but the defense is starting to show flashes of its old self and I think Campbell’s selfish act will inspire a throwback performance against a hobbled Dolphins team.

Pick: Niners

Cowboys at Bucs (-4)

The Cowboys have won three of their last four, so perhaps reports of their demise post-Dak were premature. That being said, Dallas’ defense is bad and Baker Mayfield is coming off carving up a much better Chargers squad. 

Pick: Bucs

Saints at Packers (-14)

I’m always leery of double-digit spreads and the Packers have let me down multiple times in this kind of situation before but the Saints don’t have a starter right now that you wouldn’t have to Google first and they’re playing well on both sides of the ball. 

Pick: Packers 

Week 15 NFL Picks

 

Last Week: 3-8-2
Season: 99-103-5

Rough week. Possibly the worst in this site’s history.

Let’s just move on….to Week 15.

Rams at Niners (-3)

As bad as they’ve been all year and as unlucky they’ve been with injuries, the Niners still have a puncher’s chance at taking a bad NFC West. With Nick Bosa back, Dre Greenlaw making his season and Isaac Guerendo shaking off a foot injury, this is the closest San Fran has been to “healthy” in weeks and they finally have the tools to slow down a surging Matt Stafford, who has 10 touchdowns in his past four games.

Pick: Niners

Commanders at Saints (+7.5)

The Commanders’ grasp on the final wild card spot isn’t as strong as it was a month ago and their remaining schedule doesn’t offer any layups after this week (Eagles and Falcons at home, Cowboys in Dallas). Washington dogwalked Tennessee to snap a three-game losing streak before going into their bye last week and Jayden Daniels isn’t going to let someone named Jake Haener upstage him during his ROTY campaign.

Pick: Commanders

Ravens at Giants (+17)

New York’s Fail To Score For Shadeur strategy is in full effect to the point where the future No. 1 pick is playing catch with current Giants rookie Malik Nabers in the streets. Oddsmakers have little faith in Big Blue being competitive, too, which is why the team is more than a two touchdown underdog at home against Baltimore. There’s been plenty of examples of taking the favorite when the spread is this big being a fool’s errand but the Giants are somehow even worse post-Daniel Jones and I would be shocked if they put up more than single digits.

Pick: Ravens

Chiefs at Browns (+4.5)

At this point, nobody is beating Kansas City if the game is close in the final seconds. In the Chiefs’ last three wins since their lone loss to the Bills, they’ve won by a combined nine points. They’ve also managed to score more than 21 points just twice since the end of October. Neither of those facts put them in jeopardy of losing to the Browns but it definitely boosts my confidence in Cleveland being able to at least cover.

Pick: Browns

Bengals at Titans (+5.5)

At 5-8, the Bengals are longshots to make the postseason as they sit three games behind the Broncos with four weeks to go. They also sit 11th in the current NFL draft order. Do they take out their frustration on the terrible Titans and notch another meaningless win or go in the tank in hopes of securing a nice consolation prize in April for this disappointing season? Tennessee’s so bad that, even if Cincinnati was trying to lose, the Titans would still find a way to give the game away but the Bengals are faced with an interesting decision after this week.

Pick: Bengals

Dolphins at Texans (-3)

Both teams have a lot at stake here. Despite being the lone bright spot in the AFC South all season, the Texans can still cede the division to the Colts. Houston holds a two game lead over Indianapolis and follow up their showdown with the Dolphins with Kansas City on the road and Baltimore at home before closing against the lowly Titans in Tennessee. Indy, on the other hand, gets a road clash with the Broncos before ending the season against three of the worst teams in football (Tennessee at home, at the Giants and Jacksonville at home).

As for Miami, the Dolphins still have a puncher’s chance at the playoffs if they win out and Denver collapses down the stretch.

This one can go either way, but give me Miami and the points.

Pick: Dolphins

Cowboys at Panthers (-2.5)

I’m sure the reports of the Cowboys possibly keeping Mike McCarthy as their head coach has nothing to do with Bill Belichick being off the market. Dallas keeping McCarthy would be the latest in a string of bad coaching decisions made in the last decade or so by the Jones family but that error will be amplified when
a suddenly resurgent Bryce Young carves up the Cowboys’ depleted defense.

Pick: Panthers

Jets at Jaguars (+3.5)

Tin-foil hat-wearing prima Donna Aaron Rodgers has a new documentary set to hit Netflix this week, which might be the only thing harder to watch than him struggling to find relevance against the Jaguars today. Rodgers has proven to be a train wreck both on and off the field but if there’s one team that can make him look competent, it’s Jacksonville.

Pick: Jets

Steelers at Eagles (-5.5)

This week’s 4:30 slate is insane, with four of the best games of Week 15 all happening during the afternoon shift. This one is interesting for multiple reasons. For starters, it’s a potential Super Bowl preview between interstate rivals. Second, Saquon Barkley still has Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record in his sights. Third, and perhaps with the most long-term ramifications, all eyes will be on the alleged rift between Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and WR AJ Brown.

With Brown playing the role of squeaky wheel, Barkley staring down history and the Steelers being once again without George Pickens, this looks like an easy Eagles W.

Which is why I’m taking Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers

Bills at Lions (-2.5)

Another potential Game of the Week/Super Bowl preview that could’ve (should’ve) made it to primetime rather than running parallel with other great games. The Lions are far and away the best team in the NFC but the last two weeks have looked more like survival than dominance. The Bills are significantly better than both the Packers and the Bears, and while Detroit has had 10 days to prepare, it’s hard to bet against the future MVP Josh Allen.

Pick: Bills

Colts at Broncos (-4.5)

As mentioned earlier, the Colts have a chance to steal the AFC South from the Texans and punch their ticket to the postseason. That starts with a tough matchup against the Broncos in Denver. Sean Payton has built a sneaky contender behind a strong defense and the weekly growth of rookie QB Bo Nix. Denver has the league’s eighth-ranked total defense while Nix finds himself in the top 15 in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

However, there a couple things that might work in the Colts’ favor. Denver is 20th against the pass and QB Anthony Richardson has played better since his benching last month. It’s also going to be unseasonably warm in Colorado, which will spare the dome-homed Colts of the usual harsh mountain elements. I’ll take that as a sign that the gods are smiling down at Indianapolis and take the Colts for the upset.

Pick: Colts

Patriots at Cardinals (-6)

The Cardinals not only choked away the NFC West to the Seahawks but are now in danger of being leap-frogged by the Rams, as well. None of that will matter when they host a Patriots team with nothing to play for except pride but it’s time we start studying Arizona’s tendency to collapse down the stretch.

Pick: Cardinals

Bucs at Chargers (-2.5)

Baker Mayfield continues to be a shining example of why you shouldn’t lose hope in a top pick just because things didn’t pan out early on. Mayfield is top five in passing yards and touchdowns despite not having Chris Godwin since October and being without Mike Evans for a chunk of the season. He’s also second in interceptions and facing one of the best defenses in football on the road, so all of the praise given in the opening sentence will likely be moot by halftime.

Pick: Chargers

Packers at Seahawks (+2.5)

The Packers will make the playoffs. They will win their first-round matchup against whatever lame division winner they are put up against. There will be talk of a possible Super Bowl run (especially given how well they’ve played against the top two teams in the NFC) and they will inevitably let everyone down.

That’s not a prediction. That’s a spoiler.

What does that mean for their Sunday night showdown with their longtime rival in Seattle? Not much. Except that a win here is bound to get the ball rolling and the talking heads talking. With no Jaire Alexander yet again, Green Bay is going to have a tough time slowing down Seattle’s trio of receivers but perhaps the only QB more prone to back-breaking INTs than Jordan Love is Geno Smith. So, I expect this one to be close with the Seahawks blinking first.

Pick: Packers

Bears at Vikings (-6.5)

As it turns out, Matt Eberflus was the Bears’ most obvious problem but not their only problem. Chicago celebrated their ouster of their beleaguered ex-coach by putting up a dud against a bad Niners team and all signs point to another embarrassment this week against Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings

Falcons at Raiders (+5.5)

Schedule makers couldn’t predict the future when they booked this game for Monday night in the spring but, if you have the misfortune of watching this game, keep in mind that this made it to primetime over any of the aforementioned 4:30 games that would’ve been exponentially better.

Both of these teams are awful but my money is on Atlanta to suck just a little less.

Pick: Falcons