Week 17 NFL Picks

 Last Week: 10-5-1

Season: 116-117-6

All we want for Christmas is to finish above .500 and last week got us a little bit closer.

On to Week 17…

Chiefs at Steelers (+2)

Even with All-Pro DT Chris Jones sitting out and the Steelers getting star receiver George Pickens back after missing the last two games, Pittsburgh will need a miracle on 34th street to upstage Kansas City with the world watching on the NFL’s Netflix debut. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle didn’t seem to slow him down against Houston five days ago, and with a full complement of weapons, expect the Chiefs to go walking into Winner Wonderland.

Pick: Chiefs 

Ravens at Texans (+6.5)

Injuries are the gift that keeps on giving…the Texans headaches. With Tank Dell now out with a busted everything in his knee, Houston signed Diontae Johnson, who famously quit on his last team….the Baltimore Ravens. 

In truth, it doesn’t matter if the Houston has Diontae Johnson, Chris Johnson or Andre Johnson, it will be hard-pressed to keep up with a white-hot Lamar Jackson. 

But hey, at least the city will have Beyonce home for Christmas to perform at halftime. 

Pick: Ravens 

Seahawks at Bears (+5)

I imagine there are worse ways to spend the night after Christmas than watching the Bears and Seahawks have a mid-off in primetime. Seattle’s pretty much cooked at this point but there’s still enough left in the tank to handle Chicago’s anemic offense. 

Pick: Seahawks 

Chargers at Patriots (+6)

The Patriots are the only thing standing between the Chargers and a playoff spot, which is the equivalent of a field mouse standing in front of a tank. Drake Maye has shown flashes of brilliance this season in spite of his supporting cast but those will be few and far between against this stout Chargers defense.

Pick: Chargers

Broncos at Bengals (-3.5)

Joe Burrow has at least three touchdown passes in his last seven games and the Bengals are still somehow 4-3 during that span with an outside chance at the playoffs. The Bengals are in win-out-and-pray mode and, making matters worse for their postseason hopes, they get a tough showdown with a Broncos team on 10 days rest that is also vying for the final wild card spot. Denver can’t win a shootout with Joe Shiesty but the defense has the tools to at least slow him down while Bo Nix works his magic. 

Pick: Broncos 

Cardinals at Rams (-6.5)

The Cardinals’ season is over. Kyler Murray is preoccupied in Avalon, James Connor is banged up and rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr has been on a milk carton for a month. Meanwhile, the Rams have won eight of their last ten games and now sit in the driver’s seat of the NFC West crown. Arizona don’t have enough ammo to spoil the LA’s playoff plans and this toothless Cards defense might be just what Matt Stafford needs to get this sputtering offense back on track.

Pick: Rams

Jets at Bills (-10)

With Lamar Jackson breathing down his neck for the MVP and the weather expected to be unseasonably warm in Buffalo today, this has the makings of a Josh Allen legacy game. The Jets look worse each week, both on the field and off it, and right now the only thing the team is playing for is a chance to pad stats. The last game between these two ended 23-20 in Buffalo’s favor. I don’t expect the Bills to keep it that close this time.

Pick: Bills 

Raiders at Saints (+2)

The Raiders fell out of the Shadeur Sanders Sweepstakes with a meaningless win over the Jags to snap a 10-game losing streak last week and Antonio Pierce celebrated like he won another Super Bowl. Since AP is focused on saving face (and likely his job, both of which will be for naught), I fully expect Las Vegas to further jeopardize their draft slot with another pointless W over a Saints team averaging less than 12 points per game in its last four contests.

Pick: Raiders

Colts at Giants (+7.5)

Anthony Richardson is out for the Colts, but it doesn’t matter if it’s Joe Flacco, Joe Montana or Joe Pesci behind center for Indy, this will be a walk in the park. The Giants can lock up the number one pick with a loss and there’s no reason to ruin their best chance at a franchise QB.

Pick: Colts

Cowboys at Eagles (-7.5)

It’s Kenny Pickett vs Cooper Rush with no CeeDee Lamb. Just like the gods intended. Dallas has shown a surprising amount of moxie since losing Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy found himself on the hot seat, but trying to keep up with a white-hot Saquon Barkley on the road without your most dangerous weapon is a tough ask, regardless of who Philly has at QB. 

Pick: Eagles 

Panthers at Bucs (-10)

This isn’t the same mediocre Panthers team from two months ago but, with injuries piling up, this might not even be the same Panthers team from two weeks ago. The Bucs squandered a chance to take a lead in the NFC South by losing to the Cowboys last week.

They won’t make the same mistake a second week in a row.

Pick: Bucs

Packers at Vikings (+1)

The Packers are quietly looking like the contender many thought they would become before the season. Green Bay has won nine of its last 11 while Jordan Love hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-November. Love’s improved ability to take care of the ball will come in handy since his three picks in the last meeting contributed to Minnesota opening with a 28-0 lead. This one shouldn’t get out of hand early, but with no Jaire Alexander to lock down Justin Jefferson, the Packers will have a tough time slowing down this versatile Vikings passing attack.

Pick: Vikings

Dolphins at Browns (+3)

It’s DTR vs Tyler Huntley with no Jaylen Waddle and nothing really at stake. 

It doesn’t matter who wins. We all lose. I’ll take the points, I guess.

Pick: Browns 

Falcons at Commanders (-3.5)

Michael Penix didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his debut against the Giants but a primetime showdown with fellow exciting rookie Jayden Daniels feels like must-see TV. Both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, though Washington is much closer to clinching than Atlanta. Given that they are home and how they were able to pull the rug out from under the Eagles last week, the Commanders feel like the smart choice.

Pick: Commanders

Lions at Niners (+3.5)

The fight for the top seed in the NFC is going to come down to who blinks last between Detroit, Philly and Minnesota. Even with the Niners basically donezo, the Lions can’t afford to take their eye off the ball the rest of the season. 

Pick: Lions