Week 15 NFL Picks

 

Last Week: 3-8-2
Season: 99-103-5

Rough week. Possibly the worst in this site’s history.

Let’s just move on….to Week 15.

Rams at Niners (-3)

As bad as they’ve been all year and as unlucky they’ve been with injuries, the Niners still have a puncher’s chance at taking a bad NFC West. With Nick Bosa back, Dre Greenlaw making his season and Isaac Guerendo shaking off a foot injury, this is the closest San Fran has been to “healthy” in weeks and they finally have the tools to slow down a surging Matt Stafford, who has 10 touchdowns in his past four games.

Pick: Niners

Commanders at Saints (+7.5)

The Commanders’ grasp on the final wild card spot isn’t as strong as it was a month ago and their remaining schedule doesn’t offer any layups after this week (Eagles and Falcons at home, Cowboys in Dallas). Washington dogwalked Tennessee to snap a three-game losing streak before going into their bye last week and Jayden Daniels isn’t going to let someone named Jake Haener upstage him during his ROTY campaign.

Pick: Commanders

Ravens at Giants (+17)

New York’s Fail To Score For Shadeur strategy is in full effect to the point where the future No. 1 pick is playing catch with current Giants rookie Malik Nabers in the streets. Oddsmakers have little faith in Big Blue being competitive, too, which is why the team is more than a two touchdown underdog at home against Baltimore. There’s been plenty of examples of taking the favorite when the spread is this big being a fool’s errand but the Giants are somehow even worse post-Daniel Jones and I would be shocked if they put up more than single digits.

Pick: Ravens

Chiefs at Browns (+4.5)

At this point, nobody is beating Kansas City if the game is close in the final seconds. In the Chiefs’ last three wins since their lone loss to the Bills, they’ve won by a combined nine points. They’ve also managed to score more than 21 points just twice since the end of October. Neither of those facts put them in jeopardy of losing to the Browns but it definitely boosts my confidence in Cleveland being able to at least cover.

Pick: Browns

Bengals at Titans (+5.5)

At 5-8, the Bengals are longshots to make the postseason as they sit three games behind the Broncos with four weeks to go. They also sit 11th in the current NFL draft order. Do they take out their frustration on the terrible Titans and notch another meaningless win or go in the tank in hopes of securing a nice consolation prize in April for this disappointing season? Tennessee’s so bad that, even if Cincinnati was trying to lose, the Titans would still find a way to give the game away but the Bengals are faced with an interesting decision after this week.

Pick: Bengals

Dolphins at Texans (-3)

Both teams have a lot at stake here. Despite being the lone bright spot in the AFC South all season, the Texans can still cede the division to the Colts. Houston holds a two game lead over Indianapolis and follow up their showdown with the Dolphins with Kansas City on the road and Baltimore at home before closing against the lowly Titans in Tennessee. Indy, on the other hand, gets a road clash with the Broncos before ending the season against three of the worst teams in football (Tennessee at home, at the Giants and Jacksonville at home).

As for Miami, the Dolphins still have a puncher’s chance at the playoffs if they win out and Denver collapses down the stretch.

This one can go either way, but give me Miami and the points.

Pick: Dolphins

Cowboys at Panthers (-2.5)

I’m sure the reports of the Cowboys possibly keeping Mike McCarthy as their head coach has nothing to do with Bill Belichick being off the market. Dallas keeping McCarthy would be the latest in a string of bad coaching decisions made in the last decade or so by the Jones family but that error will be amplified when
a suddenly resurgent Bryce Young carves up the Cowboys’ depleted defense.

Pick: Panthers

Jets at Jaguars (+3.5)

Tin-foil hat-wearing prima Donna Aaron Rodgers has a new documentary set to hit Netflix this week, which might be the only thing harder to watch than him struggling to find relevance against the Jaguars today. Rodgers has proven to be a train wreck both on and off the field but if there’s one team that can make him look competent, it’s Jacksonville.

Pick: Jets

Steelers at Eagles (-5.5)

This week’s 4:30 slate is insane, with four of the best games of Week 15 all happening during the afternoon shift. This one is interesting for multiple reasons. For starters, it’s a potential Super Bowl preview between interstate rivals. Second, Saquon Barkley still has Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record in his sights. Third, and perhaps with the most long-term ramifications, all eyes will be on the alleged rift between Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and WR AJ Brown.

With Brown playing the role of squeaky wheel, Barkley staring down history and the Steelers being once again without George Pickens, this looks like an easy Eagles W.

Which is why I’m taking Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers

Bills at Lions (-2.5)

Another potential Game of the Week/Super Bowl preview that could’ve (should’ve) made it to primetime rather than running parallel with other great games. The Lions are far and away the best team in the NFC but the last two weeks have looked more like survival than dominance. The Bills are significantly better than both the Packers and the Bears, and while Detroit has had 10 days to prepare, it’s hard to bet against the future MVP Josh Allen.

Pick: Bills

Colts at Broncos (-4.5)

As mentioned earlier, the Colts have a chance to steal the AFC South from the Texans and punch their ticket to the postseason. That starts with a tough matchup against the Broncos in Denver. Sean Payton has built a sneaky contender behind a strong defense and the weekly growth of rookie QB Bo Nix. Denver has the league’s eighth-ranked total defense while Nix finds himself in the top 15 in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

However, there a couple things that might work in the Colts’ favor. Denver is 20th against the pass and QB Anthony Richardson has played better since his benching last month. It’s also going to be unseasonably warm in Colorado, which will spare the dome-homed Colts of the usual harsh mountain elements. I’ll take that as a sign that the gods are smiling down at Indianapolis and take the Colts for the upset.

Pick: Colts

Patriots at Cardinals (-6)

The Cardinals not only choked away the NFC West to the Seahawks but are now in danger of being leap-frogged by the Rams, as well. None of that will matter when they host a Patriots team with nothing to play for except pride but it’s time we start studying Arizona’s tendency to collapse down the stretch.

Pick: Cardinals

Bucs at Chargers (-2.5)

Baker Mayfield continues to be a shining example of why you shouldn’t lose hope in a top pick just because things didn’t pan out early on. Mayfield is top five in passing yards and touchdowns despite not having Chris Godwin since October and being without Mike Evans for a chunk of the season. He’s also second in interceptions and facing one of the best defenses in football on the road, so all of the praise given in the opening sentence will likely be moot by halftime.

Pick: Chargers

Packers at Seahawks (+2.5)

The Packers will make the playoffs. They will win their first-round matchup against whatever lame division winner they are put up against. There will be talk of a possible Super Bowl run (especially given how well they’ve played against the top two teams in the NFC) and they will inevitably let everyone down.

That’s not a prediction. That’s a spoiler.

What does that mean for their Sunday night showdown with their longtime rival in Seattle? Not much. Except that a win here is bound to get the ball rolling and the talking heads talking. With no Jaire Alexander yet again, Green Bay is going to have a tough time slowing down Seattle’s trio of receivers but perhaps the only QB more prone to back-breaking INTs than Jordan Love is Geno Smith. So, I expect this one to be close with the Seahawks blinking first.

Pick: Packers

Bears at Vikings (-6.5)

As it turns out, Matt Eberflus was the Bears’ most obvious problem but not their only problem. Chicago celebrated their ouster of their beleaguered ex-coach by putting up a dud against a bad Niners team and all signs point to another embarrassment this week against Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings

Falcons at Raiders (+5.5)

Schedule makers couldn’t predict the future when they booked this game for Monday night in the spring but, if you have the misfortune of watching this game, keep in mind that this made it to primetime over any of the aforementioned 4:30 games that would’ve been exponentially better.

Both of these teams are awful but my money is on Atlanta to suck just a little less.

Pick: Falcons