Week 14 NFL Picks

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 96-95-3

With a month left in the regular season, things are going to get interesting for contenders and pretenders alike. Here’s a just a few storylines to keep an eye on. 

• With Matt Eberflus finally out of Chicago, there’s three head coaching vacancies to be filled in the offseason a possible half-dozen more by the spring. Dallas’ Mike McCarthy and Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson, both former Super Bowl winning coaches, are mortal locks to get shown the door. Giants owner John Mara has said he won’t move on from Brian Daboll (or GM Joe Schoen) but a lot can change if things continue to trend downward. Las Vegas’ Antonio Pierce, Tennessee’s Brian Callahan and New England’s Jerod Mayo might be safe as rookie head coaches but we’ve seen coaches go one-and-done before when their teams hit the basement. That’s potentially another six with the possibility of a curveball firing always looming (Mike McDaniel? Shane Steichen?)

• Saquon Barkley needs 607 yards in the final five games to break Eric Dickerson’s single/season rushing record of 2,105 yards. That’s roughly 121 yards per game. Barkley’s averaging 124. The record has stood for 40 years. The Raiders’ Brock Bowers is also on pace to break Puka Nacua’s rookie reception record set just last year.

• The Giants, Patriots, Jaguars, Raiders, Panthers, Browns, Titans and Jets are all in the running for the No. 1 pick. The Giants, Patriots, Jaguars and Raiders all have 10 losses while the latter four have nine. The Bengals also can’t be counted out at 3-8. 

With a lot to look forward to, we’re on to Week 14.

Packers at Lions (-3.5)

This is the part of the year where the Packers traditionally find their momentum. Green Bay is 22-4 in December and January under Matt LaFleur and last year’s second-half swing started with an upset over the Lions at Ford Field. 

A little over a year later, the Packers are once again headed to Motown to avenge a defeat earlier in the season but it’s hard to see history repeating itself. Tua Tagovailoa completed 80 percent of his 46 passes last week, and while the Packers were able to get to Tua in critical moments, the Dolphins still had little trouble moving the ball and nearly came back from a 28-3 deficit. 

The Lions are a significantly more talented team than the Dolphins and Jared Goff has been sacked just 22 times in 12 games. I expect this to be a shootout but not one the Packers can win.

Pick: Lions 

Panthers at Eagles (-13.5)

The Eagles have looked like a juggernaut since September but the Panthers have made oddsmakers pay for these large spreads the past two weeks due in large part to Bryce Young’s progress.

At worst, Panthers cover.

Pick: Panthers

Raiders at Bucs (-6.5)

Tampa Bay can take back the NFC South if things go the way they are expected this week and a battered Las Vegas squad that gave up months ago isn’t going to stand in the Bucs’ way.

Pick: Bucs

Browns at Steelers (-6.5)

The Steelers have a knack for finding mid-round receivers who struggle with maturity issues, whether it’s Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant or their latest petulant child George Pickens.

Pittsburgh will be looking for revenge after losing to Cleveland in the snow two weeks ago but betting on the Jameis Winston rollercoaster is just good, clean fun.

Pick: Browns

Jets at Dolphins (-6)

With his return to the Jets next season unlikely and his Netflix special forthcoming, Aaron Rodgers will likely find a reason to hit the eject button early on this lost season and getting thumped by the Dolphins feels like the time for it to happen.

Pick: Dolphins 

Falcons at Vikings (-6)

I want to believe Kirk Cousins is better than last week’s abysmal performance and there’s no better opportunity for a get-right game than returning to Minnesota to face his former team. 

I’m foolishly rolling the dice on a revenge performance from Captain Kirk.

Pick: Falcons 

Saints at Giants (+5)

Next.

Pick: Saints 

Jaguars at Titans (-3)

With Trevor Lawrence likely done for the year, Mac Jones has a reclaim his 2021 Pro Bowl form. It won’t come this week against a tough Titans defense but it could still happen this season. 

Pick: Titans 

Seahawks at Cardinals (-2.5)

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals two weeks ago in Seattle to take control of the NFC West. So, it’s only right Arizona gets its lick back in the desert to take back a division nobody seems to want to win.

Pick: Cardinals 

Bills at Rams (+3.5)

I like the idea of Josh Allen vs Matt Stafford in a shootout. The Rams have the horses to hang with Buffalo but it’s hard to bet against Allen when he’s in MVP mode. 

Pick: Bills

Bears at Niners (-3)

Chicago should’ve sent Matt Eburflus packing a year ago but better late than never, I guess. Thomas Brown won’t fix the Bears’ problems overnight but I like the momentum of a much-anticipated regime change against a Niners team that’s far too beat up to be competitive.

Pick: Bears 

Chargers at Chiefs (-4)

The Chiefs might the most fraudulent 11-1 team in league history but they find ways each week to not lose, especially in primetime. 

Pick: Chiefs 

Bengals at Cowboys (+5.5)

Cincinnati has the offense of a Super Bowl contender and the defense of a high school JV team. You’ll be hard-pressed to find another 4-8 team as one-sided as a Bengals squad averaging 27.9 points per game while giving up 28.3. Dallas won’t struggle for offense like last week but they aren’t slowing down Joe Burrow. 

Pick: Bengals