Week 16 Picks

 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 106-112-5

A primetime sweep between Sunday night and Monday night kept Week 15 from being another dreadful performance but we’ve still managed to make it more difficult to finish the season above .500. 

Fortunately, there’s still three weeks left to regain momentum. On to Week 16.

Broncos at Chargers (-2.5)

The Broncos are either a potential land mine for whoever draws them in the first round or the biggest frauds in the AFC. In their nine wins this season, Denver is averaging 30 points per game and have hit that benchmark three times during their current four-game winning streak.

On the other hand, all of the Broncos’ wins have come against subpar competition while their five losses have come at the hands of potential playoff teams, including a Week 6 loss at home to this week’s opponent: the Los Angeles Chargers. 

However, a lot has changed since that 23-16 L in October. Bo Nix is closing the gap on Jayden Daniels for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and the defense continues to stifle opponents, allowing a league-best 17.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the banged-up Chargers have lost three of their last four. 

A win here wouldn’t be a statement game for the Broncos but it would be a nice momentum boost with Cincinnati and Kansas City on the horizon to close out the regular season.

Pick: Broncos 

Texans at Chiefs (-3.5)

This won’t be the shootout the NFL was hoping for when it put it on the schedule in the spring. CJ Stroud’s sophomore campaign has been a bit of a flop and, even with Hollywood Brown making his season debut, Patrick Mahomes isn’t likely to air it out against the Texans’ sixth-ranked pass defense. The weather won’t work in either team’s favor either, as it’s expected to be 30 degrees at Arrowhead around kickoff. The more likely scenario is a ground-and-pound defensive struggle with a couple big plays sprinkled in. That would give the edge to the Chiefs and their two-headed monster of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. 

Pick: Chiefs 

Steelers at Ravens (-7)

These Ravens-Steelers clashes are traditionally close, low-scoring affairs but the Steelers’ defense will have to work overtime to not only slow down one of the league’s best offenses but to compensate for an offense once again missing star receiver George Pickens. That’s a tough ask, especially with Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level and the Ravens being at home with a lot more to lose. At best, Pittsburgh can keep it close enough to cover but my money is on the Ravens making a statement.

Pick: Ravens

Giants at Falcons (-9.5)

The ATL is about to be filled with big Penix energy as the Falcons finally bid adieu to Capt. Kirk and turned the ball over to their QB of the future. Unless Penix is a complete abomination, there’s no way Atlanta doesn’t A-Town Stomp all over a Giants team that needs to protect its spot atop next year’s draft.

Pick: Falcons 

Lions at Bears (+7)

The Bears have lost eight straight and the offense has scored just three touchdowns in its last two games while Caleb Williams over-dramatically sells every big hit like he’s prime Shawn Michaels. The Lions need to get back on track after last week’s loss to the Bills to keep the Eagles and Vikings off their back. So, expect a blowout here.

Pick: Lions 

Browns at Bengals (-10)

The Browns deciding to bench Jameis Winston after three bad games when they sat through Deshaun Watson for seven weeks is a bit of a headscratcher. In truth, no QB on the roster could’ve saved Cleveland but it’s pretty obvious now the team is in full tank mode. The Bengals don’t have much to play for either but Joe Burrow and company can at least pad their stats to compensate for a lost season.

Pick: Bengals 

Titans at Colts (-3.5)

Speaking of QB changes, Will Levis is the past, Mason Rudolph is the present and Kirk Cousins is probably the future in Tennessee. It doesn’t matter who is under center for the Titans, the result will be the same. 

Pick: Colts 

Rams at Jets (+3)

Netflix made the right decision to use the Jets as the subject for a documentary. They just shouldn’t have stopped at legendary weirdo Aaron Rodgers. From the owner making trade decisions based on Madden ratings to the front office claiming they had to report to a teenager to Rodgers basing the validity of media criticism on vaccination statuses, this franchise needs to be studied. 

This game has the fifth-highest over/under of this week’s slate (47), which means Vegas is anticipating a shootout. Whether Rodgers has enough left in the clip to go shot for shot with Matt Stafford is uncertain but there’s no denying the Rams need this one to keep hold of the NFC West.

Pick: Rams 

Eagles at Commanders (+4)

It’s a shame Saquon Barkley might break one of the greatest records in football and still won’t win the MVP. The Commanders have been a fun story so far and these next three weeks will be interesting for their playoff hopes as well as Jayden Daniels’ ROY campaign but they don’t have enough on defense to slow down this Eagles’ juggernaut. 

Pick: Eagles 

Cardinals at Panthers (+5.5)

I thought the Call of Duty/Kyler Murray stuff was just a joke until I looked at the numbers. Since Black Ops 6 was released on Oct. 27, Murray has eight touchdowns (six passing) and five interceptions with three games where he didn’t find the end zone at all including last week against New England. Arizona is 4-4 during that span and went from first to third faster than the late Rickey Henderson. 

Bryce Young has been the anti-Kyler with a touchdown in every game since taking the job back from Andy Dalton in late October. That improved play hasn’t led to Ws but the Panthers seem a bit more motivated than the Cards, which is not something you would’ve said two months ago.

Pick: Panthers 

Vikings at Seahawks (+3)

Simply put, the Seahawks look cooked while the Vikings’ top seed hopes are suddenly alive again. The three-point spread is mildly insulting, to be honest.

Pick: Vikings 

Patriots at Bills (-14)

It seems like nothing can stand in the way of Josh Allen and the Bills, whether it’s the Lions or the Chiefs or a broken hand. However, if something could stand in the way of Buffalo covering a two-touchdown spread, even at home against lowly New England, it’s inclement weather and the feistiness of Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye. Pats keep it “close”.

Pick: Patriots 

Jaguars at Raiders (-2.5)

Both of these teams are wretched but the Jags have shown a feint pulse with Mac Jones at QB. The same can’t be said for the Raiders and the pu-pu platter they’ve had behind center this season.

Pick: Jaguars 

Niners at Dolphins (+1.5)

Let’s start by saying De’Vondre Campbell should never see his name on another NFL roster and his 2021 season will go down as the most random All-Pro campaign in recent memory. 

While Campbell may have waved the white flag early, his soon-to-be former team hasn’t despite fate being unkind to them this entire season. The Niners are down to their fourth starting running back but the defense is starting to show flashes of its old self and I think Campbell’s selfish act will inspire a throwback performance against a hobbled Dolphins team.

Pick: Niners

Cowboys at Bucs (-4)

The Cowboys have won three of their last four, so perhaps reports of their demise post-Dak were premature. That being said, Dallas’ defense is bad and Baker Mayfield is coming off carving up a much better Chargers squad. 

Pick: Bucs

Saints at Packers (-14)

I’m always leery of double-digit spreads and the Packers have let me down multiple times in this kind of situation before but the Saints don’t have a starter right now that you wouldn’t have to Google first and they’re playing well on both sides of the ball. 

Pick: Packers