Week 13 NFL Picks

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 86-89-3

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. This year, I’m thankful for elite running backs once again being valuable, the city of Detroit finally having a Super Bowl contender, Washington finally having a franchise quarterback and Jordan Love finally making it through a game without a turnover. 

On to Week 13….

Bears at Lions (-9.5)

The Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016 including last year’s loss to the then-4-6 Packers. This year, they get an abysmal Bears squad on a losing streak of its own. This is arguably the best Detroit team we’ve ever seen but even the greats are due for a letdown and Chicago’s defense is stout enough to at least keep it within double digits. 

Pick: Bears

Giants at Cowboys (-3.5)

It should be a crime to be forced to pick between a team led by Cooper Rush and one led by Drew Lock but here we are. Dallas’ upset win over Washington last week actually did more harm than good as it dropped the Cowboys down the draft board when a top pick is really the only thing worth playing for in this lost season. 

As bad as things are in Big D, it’s somehow worse in the Meadowlands. The Giants are on their third starting quarterback, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers openly called the team “soft” after last week’s beating at the hands of the Bucs and head coach Brian Daboll seems to have finally lost the locker room. Making matters worse, this is all happening while Saquon Barkley is having an MVP season in Philly.

It’s possible Lock was the best QB on the roster all along and it’s not like he’d have to do much to outduel Rush but New York are currently in the running for the top pick in next year’s draft and there’s no reason to jeopardize that. 

Pick: Cowboys 

Dolphins at Packers (-3.5)

Miami is averaging 29 points per game since Tua Tagavailoa’s return five weeks ago and now gets a Packers team playing without top corner Jaire Alexander. Alexander caught one of Tua’s three picks in Green Bay’s victory over Miami two years ago and the players who caught the other two are no longer on the roster. The Packers proved they could smash an ant with a sledgehammer in last week’s annihilation of a battered Niners team but this is a significant jump in competition.

This has shootout potential and it will ultimately come down to who is safer with the football. Tua has four picks all season (three of which coming in the Week 2 clash with Buffalo where his brain was turned to scrambled eggs). Jordan Love has five in his last five games. 

Pick: Dolphins 

Raiders at Chiefs (-13.5)

A 3pm Friday time slot is weird, even if it’s just one game and it’s the day after Thanksgiving. A majority of the country will either be shopping, working or still sleeping off Thursday’s dinner. This should’ve easily been in primetime, but I digress.

As for the game itself, I don’t know if Antonio Pierce has accepted the possibility he won’t be employed at season’s end or if he thinks publicly calling his team “the worst in football” is going to fire up the Raiders but it’s certainly a weird thing to say about the crew he’s in charge of. 

It’s not like AP is wrong though. Las Vegas has lost seven straight, with the last three being by double digits. I’m skittish about taking the Chiefs by two touchdowns, especially after last week’s close win over Carolina, but Patrick Mahomes is 12-1 at home in November and he hates the Raiders. So, if ever there was a game Kansas City blows the doors off an opponent, it’s this one. 

Pick: Chiefs

Texans at Jaguars (+3.5)

The last time these two teams met, the Texans needed a touchdown in the final seconds to sneak past the Jags. So, if you’re looking for reason to roll a dice on the underdog, that would be one. It would likely be the only one.

Jacksonville doesn’t have much to play for these days. Doug Pederson is as good as gone sometime between now and season’s end. Trevor Lawrence is playing through a bum shoulder and every main receiver not named Brian Thomas Jr is on the shelf.

Texans *should* roll here.

Pick: Texans

Titans at Commanders (-6)

You’d like to think Washington won’t lose to a bottom-five team two weeks in a row but the Commanders haven’t been the same team since Jayden Daniels injured his ribs and Tennessee’s defense is solid. We know Washington will get the inevitable Will Levis pick-six. The question is can they put up enough points on offense to cover the spread?

I say yes.

Pick: Commanders

Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5)

The Cards went from sitting atop the NFC West to facing an uphill battle for a playoff spot in the span of a week. Arizona is a sneaky good team when the offense gets clicking but that’s a tough ask against Minnesota’s defense, and even if they find success, they’ll be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Sammy Slings and his bevy of weapons.

Pick: Vikings

Steelers at Bengals (-3)

It’s interesting that oddsmakers favor Cincy here given the Bengals are 4-7 and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet while the Steelers are one of the best teams in the AFC. The Bengals have the talent of a playoff team but, as Bill Parcells says, you are what your record is, and I’ll believe Joe Burrow and company can beat a good team when they actually do it.

Pick: Steelers

Seahawks at Jets (-1)

The Seahawks are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, but I can’t pick a Jets team that imploded weeks ago against anyone right now.

Pick: Seahawks

Chargers at Falcons (+1)

After losing their last two, Atlanta holds just a one-game lead over Tampa Bay for the NFC South crown. Making matters worse, five of the Bucs’ next six games comes against weak competition while the Falcons follow up a tough home matchup against the Chargers with a road trip to Minnesota. This is a crucial one for the Dirty Birds but it’s hard to have faith in a team that just got dogwalked by Bo Nix and the Broncos before going into last week’s bye.

Pick: Chargers

Colts at Patriots (+2.5)

This was the hardest game to pick simply because neither of these teams are very good. I’ve rarely been right about the Patriots all season but my gut tells me Drake Maye outplays Anthony Richardson and New England pulls off an upset they don’t need.

Pick: Patriots

Bucs at Panthers (+6.5)

Bryce Young has made strides since his benching earlier in the year but he still has a ways to go before living up to the expectations of a No. 1 overall pick. Baker Mayfield can relate. Mayfield fell short of the mark after being the top pick in Cleveland then bounced around for a bit before finally finding a home in Tampa Bay. Young should find some success against a bad Bucs defense but not enough to keep up with the Baker Boys.

Pick: Bucs

Rams at Saints (+3)

This reads like a big Alvin Kamara game as the Saints’ receiving core has been decimated by injuries and the Rams just got carved up by Saquon Barkley a week ago. The Rams can counter with a more balanced offensive attack and they desperately need this one to stay in playoff contention (and maybe even NFC West title contention) so my money is on them.

Pick: Rams

Eagles at Ravens (-3)

This is easily the Game of the Week and a strong contender for Game of the Year. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders with MVP candidates on each side (Saquon Barkley for Philly, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson going for MVP #3). The Eagles haven’t lost since their Week 5 bye but Lamar holds a 22-1 record against the NFC as a starter and he’s at home.

Pick: Ravens

Niners at Bills (-6.5)

Niners QB Brock Purdy is expected to suit up for this one after missing last week’s drubbing vs Green Bay but that’s a moot point since this game looks like it’ll be played in a literal blizzard. Snow games tend to favor who can run the ball the best and the two-pronged attack of James Cook and Josh Allen gets my vote.

Pick: Bills

Browns at Broncos (-6)

Jameis Winston is a national treasure and I hope he remains a part of football forever but the Broncos are a tough out who are only going to get tougher as Bo Nix gains more confidence. There’s hope for a Jerry Jeudy revenge game but Winston’s gunslinger mentality against this Broncos secondary is bad news for Cleveland.

Pick: Broncos

Week 12 NFL Picks

Last Week: 7-7

Season: 79-83-3

Much like Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson, Week 11 was an anticlimactic disappointment that left me questioning why I even bothered getting my hopes up in the first place.

On to…*buffering*…Week 12.

Steelers at Browns (+3.5)

This seems like such an obvious pick that it almost feels like a trap. The Steelers can’t seem to lose with Russell Wilson at quarterback while the Browns have won since September 15th. If there’s a reason to roll the dice on Cleveland, it’s that Pittsburgh hasn’t pulled away from an opponent in a while and you can never rule out a Jameis Winston garbage time heave leading to a back-door cover.

Pick: Steelers

Cowboys at Commanders (-10.5)

Dallas is cooked at this point. Cooper Rush dropped back 55 times Monday night for 354 yards and the Cowboys still only managed to put up 10 points. Why would I think they’d do any better on the road on a short week against a division rival playing for the top seed when they have to play again in four days?

Pick: Commanders

Lions at Colts (+7.5)

I underestimated the Lions last week and, even with the Colts showing signs of life, I’m not  making that same mistake two weeks in a row.

Pick: Lions

Chiefs at Panthers (+10.5)

Panthers were on a two-game win streak before last week’s bye but let’s not overthink this one. Chiefs are going to roll and Kareem Hunt will eat in what will likely be his last game as Kansas City’s lead back.

Pick: Chiefs

Bucs at Giants (+6)

The Giants letting Saquon Barkley walk and sticking with Daniel Jones only for them to be forced into cutting Jones is the kind of story that should get the front office fired immediately. That being said, the Jersey paisan in me wants to believe in Tommy DeVito.

Do I believe in him enough to take Big Blue over the Bucs with a returning Mike Evans? Hell no.

But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants’ offense moves the ball a little better with Cutlets behind center.

Pick: Bucs

Titans at Texans (-8)

The Titans have scored more than 20 points just once this season as Tennessee has rode the defense heavily while Will Levis and Mason Rudolph prove to be as useless as putting mayonnaise in coffee. Texans QB CJ Stroud has also been a flop this season but there’s too much talent on both side of the ball for Houston to not rout here.

Pick: Texans

Patriots at Dolphins (-7.5)

The Patriots are a scrappy bunch that desperately needs a weapon for QB Drake Maye. Colorado’s Travis Hunter is a dynamic playmaker who is about to win the Heisman. I see no reason for New England to jeopardize their shot at a game-changer by trying too hard to improve their paltry record. I don’t trust the Dolphins yet, but for them to even dream of sniffing the postseason, they can’t miss these kind of layups.

Pick: Dolphins

Vikings at Bears (+3.5)

The Bears might’ve had a shot at living up to preseason expectations if they didn’t have Matt Eberflus as their head coach but, after last week, it’s painfully obvious now that the team is going nowhere with him on the sidelines.

A Minnesota pass rush that’s third in sacks is going to tee off on Caleb Williams.

Pick: Vikings

Broncos at Raiders (+5.5)

The Broncos look like a playoff team, Bo Nix looks like the real deal and the Raiders look like they’ll be giving Daniel Jones a call by halftime.

Pick: Broncos

Niners at Packers (-5.5)

The Niners have won four of their last six against the Packers including last year’s divisional playoff showdown and two straight NFC Championship games, but injuries put their chances of going 5-for-7 in jeopardy. QB Brock Purdy, All-Pro def defensive end Nick Bosa and all-pro left tackle Trent Williams all seem unlikely to suit up.

Of course, all of that could be moot if Jordan Love’s turnover woes continue. Love is tied for the league lead with 11 interceptions despite missing three weeks and he’s thrown at least one pick in every game he’s played this season. Still, if Love can’t outduel Brandon Allen at home, the Packers might as well forget about the playoffs.

Pick: Packers

Cardinals at Seahawks (-1)

Arizona finds itself still atop the NFC West thanks in large part to a soft schedule. The Cardinals have won win over an above .500 team (their Week 7 Monday night win over the Chargers that came on a last-second field goal) while all of their losses are against potential playoff contenders. The Seahawks aren’t above .500 and the jury is out as to whether they’ll make the postseason, but with two cracks at the Cards in the next three weeks, there’s no better time to show the world what they’re worth.

Pick: Seahawks

Eagles at Rams (+3)

This feels like a trap game. The Eagles have won six straight and have a big showdown with Baltimore next week that could be a Super Bowl preview. Before that, they go on the road in primetime against a cagey Rams team still trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. It’s hard to bet against Philly right now but these are the kind of games that typically trip them up.

Pick: Rams

Ravens at Chargers (+2.5)

The Harbaugh brothers will meet for third time ever and the first time since John beat Jim in Super Bowl 47 when the latter was coaching the Niners. John’s 2-0 against his younger brother and, while Jim’s defense is the best one John’s Ravens has faced all season, I don’t see the Chargers being able to muster up enough offense to keep up with Lamar Jackson and Co., even if L.A. can manage to slow them down.

John goes up 3-0 in what should be a fun one.

Pick: Ravens

Week 11 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 72-76-3

A strong finish last week has us in position to move above .500 for the first time since the start of Week 2.

On to Week 11…

Commanders at Eagles (-4)

The Eagles have fought off key injuries and coaching deficiencies all season to quietly sit at 7-2. They also have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Commanders atop the NFC East. Washington has been a pleasant surprise this year but I don’t see them being able to keep up with a healthy Philly offense. I’ve also been Ben Simmons from 3 levels of bad when it comes to picking Thursday night games so feel free to fade me here.

Pick: Eagles

Jaguars at Lions (-13.5)

The Jags surprisingly put up a fight in a close loss to the Vikings and will now attempt a repeat performance against the Lions. Detroit is much better than Minnesota, but Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has to feel the guillotine looming over his head and 14 points is a big number, especially with the Lions missing Sam LaPorta. Lions win but Jags keep it within two touchdowns.

Pick: Jaguars

Packers at Bears (+6)

The Packers have kept the Bears under their oppressive boot for the better part of two decades. Brett Favre dominated them, Aaron Rodgers owned them and Jordan Love hasn’t lost to them yet. Chicago will be breaking in a new coordinator but it’s only delaying the inevitable when the team cleans house in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Packers come off the bye finally fully healthy and, if Love can keep his tendency for backbreaking turnovers under control, Green Bay’s streak against their division rival should continue.

Pick: Packers

Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)

Somehow, two teams with a combined 14-5 record are going unnoticed when it comes to talking about AFC title contenders. Lamar Jackson is off to another MVP caliber year while Derrick Henry leads in almost all major rushing categories in his age-30 season. As for Pittsburgh, Russell Wilson hasn’t lost since regaining the starting QB job and the Steelers’ defense is second in point allowed. Traditionally, these Steelers-Ravens clashes are tight affairs, so I’m inclined to side with the team getting more than a field goal.

Pick: Steelers

Vikings at Titans (+6)

After starting the season 5-0, the Vikings seemed to have cooled off since their hot start. After dropped two straight after the bye, needed a strong second half to beat the Colts and barely squeaked by the Jags last week. Minnesota can regain momentum against godawful Will Levis and a Tennessee team that has no reason to play its way out of a top draft spot.

Pick: Vikings

Raiders at Dolphins (-7.5)

The Raiders have a revolving door at QB, the worst run game in football and no pass-catcher worth talking about. Defensively, they’re respectable, particularly against the pass, which is the Dolphins’ strong suit. Like Tennessee, Las Vegas has no reason (besides pride) to jeopardize its draft spot but they might be able to keep a rusty Miami offense from pulling away.

Pick: Raiders

Rams at Patriots (+4)

The Patriots have won two of their last three and look like a different team with rookie Drake Maye under center. They also get DT Christian Barmore back to give the defense a much-needed boost, and they’ll catch the Rams on a short week coming off a lackluster performance against the Dolphins. 

I may live to regret this but I like the Pats in an upset.

Pick: Patriots

Colts at Jets (-4)

With the exception of a Thursday night win over a Texans team missing half its offensive weapons, the Jets haven’t won a game since mid-September (oddly enough, also a Thursday nighter). The team has too much talent to be this bad but it’s hard to trust them against anyone going forward, even a Colts team that’s crawling back to Anthony Richardson as their starting QB this week.

Pick: Colts

Browns at Saints (+1.5)

Cleveland’s luck the rest of the season will be dependent on what side of the Jameis Winston coin lands. Will the Browns get the Famous Jameis who lit up the Ravens three weeks ago or the guy who couldn’t protect the ball against the Chargers before the bye? Every week is going to be a roller coaster, but a fun one. As for the Saints, it’s possible all they needed was to get rid of Dennis Allen but a depleted roster isn’t keeping up a rested Browns team.

Pick: Browns

Seahawks at Niners (-6.5)

Speaking of beat up, the Niners will be without George Kittle while Trent Williams and Nick Bosa will be hobbled. Meanwhile, the Seahawks get DK Metcalf back and need a win here to stay in the playoff hunt.

Pick: Seahawks

Falcons at Broncos (-1.5)

It’s safe to say the Broncos silenced critics who panned the team’s decision to use the 12th overall pick on Bo Nix, but the Falcons as underdogs feels like free money. Atlanta needs to make up for last week’s flop against New Orleans and a win here would give the Dirty Birds a 2.5 game lead on Tampa Bay with seven weeks left to go.

Pick: Falcons

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have the AFC East pretty much locked up but a win here would give them a shot at stealing homefield advantage from the Chiefs. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 3-1 against Kansas City in the regular season but how do you get against a Chiefs team that finds different ways to not lose each week?

Pick: Chiefs

Bengals at Chargers (-1)

Joe Burrow might throw for 5,000 yards, Ja’Marr Chase might win Offensive Player of the Year and the Bengals will still miss the playoffs. At 4-6, Cincy has quite the climb to get a wild card spot and they’ve yet to show they can beat an above .500 team this season. I expect the Chargers to control the clock to keep Burrow off the field while Los Angeles’ sixth-ranked defense does its best to slow Joe Shiesty down.

Pick: Chargers

Texans at Cowboys (+7)

I don’t envision the Cowboys winning another game this season but it would make sense to see what they have in Trey Lance, who Dallas traded a fourth-rounder for last summer. Lance has been a bust thus far but he doesn’t give America’s Team any *less* of a chance to win.

With Nico Collins back, the Texans should roll here.

Pick: Texans