Week 11 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 72-76-3

A strong finish last week has us in position to move above .500 for the first time since the start of Week 2.

On to Week 11…

Commanders at Eagles (-4)

The Eagles have fought off key injuries and coaching deficiencies all season to quietly sit at 7-2. They also have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Commanders atop the NFC East. Washington has been a pleasant surprise this year but I don’t see them being able to keep up with a healthy Philly offense. I’ve also been Ben Simmons from 3 levels of bad when it comes to picking Thursday night games so feel free to fade me here.

Pick: Eagles

Jaguars at Lions (-13.5)

The Jags surprisingly put up a fight in a close loss to the Vikings and will now attempt a repeat performance against the Lions. Detroit is much better than Minnesota, but Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has to feel the guillotine looming over his head and 14 points is a big number, especially with the Lions missing Sam LaPorta. Lions win but Jags keep it within two touchdowns.

Pick: Jaguars

Packers at Bears (+6)

The Packers have kept the Bears under their oppressive boot for the better part of two decades. Brett Favre dominated them, Aaron Rodgers owned them and Jordan Love hasn’t lost to them yet. Chicago will be breaking in a new coordinator but it’s only delaying the inevitable when the team cleans house in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Packers come off the bye finally fully healthy and, if Love can keep his tendency for backbreaking turnovers under control, Green Bay’s streak against their division rival should continue.

Pick: Packers

Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)

Somehow, two teams with a combined 14-5 record are going unnoticed when it comes to talking about AFC title contenders. Lamar Jackson is off to another MVP caliber year while Derrick Henry leads in almost all major rushing categories in his age-30 season. As for Pittsburgh, Russell Wilson hasn’t lost since regaining the starting QB job and the Steelers’ defense is second in point allowed. Traditionally, these Steelers-Ravens clashes are tight affairs, so I’m inclined to side with the team getting more than a field goal.

Pick: Steelers

Vikings at Titans (+6)

After starting the season 5-0, the Vikings seemed to have cooled off since their hot start. After dropped two straight after the bye, needed a strong second half to beat the Colts and barely squeaked by the Jags last week. Minnesota can regain momentum against godawful Will Levis and a Tennessee team that has no reason to play its way out of a top draft spot.

Pick: Vikings

Raiders at Dolphins (-7.5)

The Raiders have a revolving door at QB, the worst run game in football and no pass-catcher worth talking about. Defensively, they’re respectable, particularly against the pass, which is the Dolphins’ strong suit. Like Tennessee, Las Vegas has no reason (besides pride) to jeopardize its draft spot but they might be able to keep a rusty Miami offense from pulling away.

Pick: Raiders

Rams at Patriots (+4)

The Patriots have won two of their last three and look like a different team with rookie Drake Maye under center. They also get DT Christian Barmore back to give the defense a much-needed boost, and they’ll catch the Rams on a short week coming off a lackluster performance against the Dolphins. 

I may live to regret this but I like the Pats in an upset.

Pick: Patriots

Colts at Jets (-4)

With the exception of a Thursday night win over a Texans team missing half its offensive weapons, the Jets haven’t won a game since mid-September (oddly enough, also a Thursday nighter). The team has too much talent to be this bad but it’s hard to trust them against anyone going forward, even a Colts team that’s crawling back to Anthony Richardson as their starting QB this week.

Pick: Colts

Browns at Saints (+1.5)

Cleveland’s luck the rest of the season will be dependent on what side of the Jameis Winston coin lands. Will the Browns get the Famous Jameis who lit up the Ravens three weeks ago or the guy who couldn’t protect the ball against the Chargers before the bye? Every week is going to be a roller coaster, but a fun one. As for the Saints, it’s possible all they needed was to get rid of Dennis Allen but a depleted roster isn’t keeping up a rested Browns team.

Pick: Browns

Seahawks at Niners (-6.5)

Speaking of beat up, the Niners will be without George Kittle while Trent Williams and Nick Bosa will be hobbled. Meanwhile, the Seahawks get DK Metcalf back and need a win here to stay in the playoff hunt.

Pick: Seahawks

Falcons at Broncos (-1.5)

It’s safe to say the Broncos silenced critics who panned the team’s decision to use the 12th overall pick on Bo Nix, but the Falcons as underdogs feels like free money. Atlanta needs to make up for last week’s flop against New Orleans and a win here would give the Dirty Birds a 2.5 game lead on Tampa Bay with seven weeks left to go.

Pick: Falcons

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have the AFC East pretty much locked up but a win here would give them a shot at stealing homefield advantage from the Chiefs. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 3-1 against Kansas City in the regular season but how do you get against a Chiefs team that finds different ways to not lose each week?

Pick: Chiefs

Bengals at Chargers (-1)

Joe Burrow might throw for 5,000 yards, Ja’Marr Chase might win Offensive Player of the Year and the Bengals will still miss the playoffs. At 4-6, Cincy has quite the climb to get a wild card spot and they’ve yet to show they can beat an above .500 team this season. I expect the Chargers to control the clock to keep Burrow off the field while Los Angeles’ sixth-ranked defense does its best to slow Joe Shiesty down.

Pick: Chargers

Texans at Cowboys (+7)

I don’t envision the Cowboys winning another game this season but it would make sense to see what they have in Trey Lance, who Dallas traded a fourth-rounder for last summer. Lance has been a bust thus far but he doesn’t give America’s Team any *less* of a chance to win.

With Nico Collins back, the Texans should roll here.

Pick: Texans