Week 10 NFL Picks

Last Week: 5-10

Season: 64-70-3

Much like America this past Tuesday, I made some bad decisions that ruined all of the momentum and progress I built in recent weeks.

On to Week 10…

Bengals at Ravens (-6)

The last Bengals-Ravens showdown was an OT thriller that saw Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson go tit-for-tat putting up video game numbers en route to a Baltimore victory. With Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown not suiting up for the Bengals, I don’t expect this to be another shootout but I do think the birds sweep.

Pick: Ravens

Giants at Panthers (+6.5)

Only Roger Goodell could find a way to ruin a concept as good as early morning football. The NFL will once again attempt to expand their sport globally by making the people in Munich suffer through a showdown between two of the worse teams in football. Daniel Jones’ days as the Giants starting QB are nearing its end but he has a better supporting cast (and likely a better future) than Bryce Young.

Pick: Giants

Bills at Colts (+4)

Joe Flacco’s flop last week could be attributed to him finally showing his age or a stout Vikings defense but neither excuse will save him from potentially giving the starting job back to Anthony Richardson or taking an L at home against a solid Bills team.

Pick: Bills

Vikings at Jaguars (+7)

With Trevor Lawrence possibly out the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, Mac Jones has two months to show what he can do and maybe earn himself a starting job elsewhere next season. The Vikings also have a generous pass defense, Joe Flacco’s poor performance last week not withstanding. That’s the good news.

The bad news is Mac Jones is still Mac Jones and he hasn’t been good since his rookie season in 2021. It’s possible that, much like Sam Darnold, a change of scenery brings out the best in the former Alabama passer but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach.

Pick: Vikings

Broncos at Chiefs (-7.5)

You have to give Andy Reid credit for not only keeping the Chiefs undefeated despite a litany of injuries but somehow managing to resurrect the careers of Kareem Hunt and DeAndre Hopkins.

That being said, the Broncos always play the Chiefs tough and Kansas City has won by more than a touchdown just twice during their 8-0 run.

Pick: Broncos

Falcons at Saints (+3.5)

The Falcons disrespect by oddsmakers should be tolerated. Atlanta has won five of their last six while New Orleans loses a receiver a week to injury and their seven-game losing streak got their coach fired. This spread should be higher but either way, the Saints woes continue.

Pick: Falcons

Steelers at Commanders (-2)

Pittsburgh and Washington both made savvy moves at the trade deadline. The Steelers filled their need for a second receiver with Mike Williams and added Preston Smith from Green Bay to bolster the pass rush. Meanwhile, the Commanders saved Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans to give their middling pass defense a boost.

It’s hard to bet against Jayden Daniels, who has won seven of his last eight starts, but the Steelers haven’t lost since turning to Russell Wilson as their starter and Pittsburgh is the more balanced team.

Pick: Steelers

Niners at Bucs (+6.5)

After nine weeks sidelined by the Madden Curse, er, an Achilles injury, Christian McCaffrey is finally back. CMC’s return gives the offense a boost but the Niners will likely bring their oft-injured back along slowly in his season debut.

The Bucs have devastated by injuries but they’ve still managed to hang with Atlanta and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks. Niners win but a wild Baker Mayfield closes the gap.

Pick: Bucs

Patriots at Bears (-6)

After being anointed the next big thing, Caleb Williams has spent the last nine weeks being outperformed by fellow rookie QBs Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Drake Maye, who took over the Patriots QB job four weeks ago and will oppose Williams on Sunday, has two less total touchdowns in three less games. When you throw in Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Brian Thomas Jr and Brock Bowers, the case can be made Caleb Williams isn’t a top 10 rookie in a draft class he was supposed to be the golden prize in.

As for this week, the Bears defense will likely carry against a Patriots team that doesn’t have much talent on offense beyond Maye himself and previously benched RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Williams should be able to get things going against New England’s defense, which ranks in the bottom-10 of nearly every stat category.

Bears should roll here but all eyes will be on whether Williams will get outdueled by another one of his classmates.

Pick: Bears

Titans at Chargers (-8)

I’ll keep this brief.

Will Levis is back for the Titans. Chargers by double digits.

Pick: Chargers

Eagles at Cowboys (+7)

Assuming Dak Prescott opts for season-ending surgery on his hamstring, the last impression of his 2024 campaign will be cameras catching him saying the team that’s paying him $60 million a year to play quarterback “fucking sucks”. Dak’s contract will likely keep him around  a little longer but with the Cowboys staring down the barrel of a top-five pick in a good QB draft and Mike McCarthy unlikely to be back as head coach next season, it’s fair to wonder if Prescott ever takes another snap in Cowboys uniform.

As for this week, Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle was one of the greatest moves I’ve ever seen on a football field and not even Micah Parsons’ return will prevent the king of quads from running amok again.

Pick: Eagles

Jets at Cardinals (+1.5)

Oddsmakers love the Jets and their big win over the Texans last Thursday already has those thinking New York has finally turned things around.

Don’t let that distract you from the fact that the Arizona Cardinals have won three straight and currently sit atop the NFC West.

Give me Call of Duty Kyler and the revitalized red birds.

Pick: Cardinals

Lions at Texans (+3.5)

The Texans are coming off 10 days of rest after their loss to the Jets last Thursday and finally get Nico Collins back. Collins was in the midst of a career year before going down with a bad hammy, and while he’s still a game-time call, his potential return changes the complexion of this offense.

The Lions are the best team in the NFC but the Texans at mostly full strength after spending the week rallying the troops are a different beast than the one we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Pick: Texans

Dolphins at Rams (-1.5)

This is a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions after getting key players back from injury. The return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have the Rams looking like a playoff team while the Dolphins’ losing ways haven’t stopped even with Tua back under center.

I think this will be a fun one but it’s hard to trust Miami until we have visual proof that the offense has shaken the cobwebs off.

Pick: Rams