Week 13 NFL Picks

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 86-89-3

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. This year, I’m thankful for elite running backs once again being valuable, the city of Detroit finally having a Super Bowl contender, Washington finally having a franchise quarterback and Jordan Love finally making it through a game without a turnover. 

On to Week 13….

Bears at Lions (-9.5)

The Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016 including last year’s loss to the then-4-6 Packers. This year, they get an abysmal Bears squad on a losing streak of its own. This is arguably the best Detroit team we’ve ever seen but even the greats are due for a letdown and Chicago’s defense is stout enough to at least keep it within double digits. 

Pick: Bears

Giants at Cowboys (-3.5)

It should be a crime to be forced to pick between a team led by Cooper Rush and one led by Drew Lock but here we are. Dallas’ upset win over Washington last week actually did more harm than good as it dropped the Cowboys down the draft board when a top pick is really the only thing worth playing for in this lost season. 

As bad as things are in Big D, it’s somehow worse in the Meadowlands. The Giants are on their third starting quarterback, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers openly called the team “soft” after last week’s beating at the hands of the Bucs and head coach Brian Daboll seems to have finally lost the locker room. Making matters worse, this is all happening while Saquon Barkley is having an MVP season in Philly.

It’s possible Lock was the best QB on the roster all along and it’s not like he’d have to do much to outduel Rush but New York are currently in the running for the top pick in next year’s draft and there’s no reason to jeopardize that. 

Pick: Cowboys 

Dolphins at Packers (-3.5)

Miami is averaging 29 points per game since Tua Tagavailoa’s return five weeks ago and now gets a Packers team playing without top corner Jaire Alexander. Alexander caught one of Tua’s three picks in Green Bay’s victory over Miami two years ago and the players who caught the other two are no longer on the roster. The Packers proved they could smash an ant with a sledgehammer in last week’s annihilation of a battered Niners team but this is a significant jump in competition.

This has shootout potential and it will ultimately come down to who is safer with the football. Tua has four picks all season (three of which coming in the Week 2 clash with Buffalo where his brain was turned to scrambled eggs). Jordan Love has five in his last five games. 

Pick: Dolphins 

Raiders at Chiefs (-13.5)

A 3pm Friday time slot is weird, even if it’s just one game and it’s the day after Thanksgiving. A majority of the country will either be shopping, working or still sleeping off Thursday’s dinner. This should’ve easily been in primetime, but I digress.

As for the game itself, I don’t know if Antonio Pierce has accepted the possibility he won’t be employed at season’s end or if he thinks publicly calling his team “the worst in football” is going to fire up the Raiders but it’s certainly a weird thing to say about the crew he’s in charge of. 

It’s not like AP is wrong though. Las Vegas has lost seven straight, with the last three being by double digits. I’m skittish about taking the Chiefs by two touchdowns, especially after last week’s close win over Carolina, but Patrick Mahomes is 12-1 at home in November and he hates the Raiders. So, if ever there was a game Kansas City blows the doors off an opponent, it’s this one. 

Pick: Chiefs

Texans at Jaguars (+3.5)

The last time these two teams met, the Texans needed a touchdown in the final seconds to sneak past the Jags. So, if you’re looking for reason to roll a dice on the underdog, that would be one. It would likely be the only one.

Jacksonville doesn’t have much to play for these days. Doug Pederson is as good as gone sometime between now and season’s end. Trevor Lawrence is playing through a bum shoulder and every main receiver not named Brian Thomas Jr is on the shelf.

Texans *should* roll here.

Pick: Texans

Titans at Commanders (-6)

You’d like to think Washington won’t lose to a bottom-five team two weeks in a row but the Commanders haven’t been the same team since Jayden Daniels injured his ribs and Tennessee’s defense is solid. We know Washington will get the inevitable Will Levis pick-six. The question is can they put up enough points on offense to cover the spread?

I say yes.

Pick: Commanders

Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5)

The Cards went from sitting atop the NFC West to facing an uphill battle for a playoff spot in the span of a week. Arizona is a sneaky good team when the offense gets clicking but that’s a tough ask against Minnesota’s defense, and even if they find success, they’ll be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Sammy Slings and his bevy of weapons.

Pick: Vikings

Steelers at Bengals (-3)

It’s interesting that oddsmakers favor Cincy here given the Bengals are 4-7 and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet while the Steelers are one of the best teams in the AFC. The Bengals have the talent of a playoff team but, as Bill Parcells says, you are what your record is, and I’ll believe Joe Burrow and company can beat a good team when they actually do it.

Pick: Steelers

Seahawks at Jets (-1)

The Seahawks are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, but I can’t pick a Jets team that imploded weeks ago against anyone right now.

Pick: Seahawks

Chargers at Falcons (+1)

After losing their last two, Atlanta holds just a one-game lead over Tampa Bay for the NFC South crown. Making matters worse, five of the Bucs’ next six games comes against weak competition while the Falcons follow up a tough home matchup against the Chargers with a road trip to Minnesota. This is a crucial one for the Dirty Birds but it’s hard to have faith in a team that just got dogwalked by Bo Nix and the Broncos before going into last week’s bye.

Pick: Chargers

Colts at Patriots (+2.5)

This was the hardest game to pick simply because neither of these teams are very good. I’ve rarely been right about the Patriots all season but my gut tells me Drake Maye outplays Anthony Richardson and New England pulls off an upset they don’t need.

Pick: Patriots

Bucs at Panthers (+6.5)

Bryce Young has made strides since his benching earlier in the year but he still has a ways to go before living up to the expectations of a No. 1 overall pick. Baker Mayfield can relate. Mayfield fell short of the mark after being the top pick in Cleveland then bounced around for a bit before finally finding a home in Tampa Bay. Young should find some success against a bad Bucs defense but not enough to keep up with the Baker Boys.

Pick: Bucs

Rams at Saints (+3)

This reads like a big Alvin Kamara game as the Saints’ receiving core has been decimated by injuries and the Rams just got carved up by Saquon Barkley a week ago. The Rams can counter with a more balanced offensive attack and they desperately need this one to stay in playoff contention (and maybe even NFC West title contention) so my money is on them.

Pick: Rams

Eagles at Ravens (-3)

This is easily the Game of the Week and a strong contender for Game of the Year. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders with MVP candidates on each side (Saquon Barkley for Philly, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson going for MVP #3). The Eagles haven’t lost since their Week 5 bye but Lamar holds a 22-1 record against the NFC as a starter and he’s at home.

Pick: Ravens

Niners at Bills (-6.5)

Niners QB Brock Purdy is expected to suit up for this one after missing last week’s drubbing vs Green Bay but that’s a moot point since this game looks like it’ll be played in a literal blizzard. Snow games tend to favor who can run the ball the best and the two-pronged attack of James Cook and Josh Allen gets my vote.

Pick: Bills

Browns at Broncos (-6)

Jameis Winston is a national treasure and I hope he remains a part of football forever but the Broncos are a tough out who are only going to get tougher as Bo Nix gains more confidence. There’s hope for a Jerry Jeudy revenge game but Winston’s gunslinger mentality against this Broncos secondary is bad news for Cleveland.

Pick: Broncos