Week 12 NFL Picks

Last Week: 7-7

Season: 79-83-3

Much like Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson, Week 11 was an anticlimactic disappointment that left me questioning why I even bothered getting my hopes up in the first place.

On to…*buffering*…Week 12.

Steelers at Browns (+3.5)

This seems like such an obvious pick that it almost feels like a trap. The Steelers can’t seem to lose with Russell Wilson at quarterback while the Browns have won since September 15th. If there’s a reason to roll the dice on Cleveland, it’s that Pittsburgh hasn’t pulled away from an opponent in a while and you can never rule out a Jameis Winston garbage time heave leading to a back-door cover.

Pick: Steelers

Cowboys at Commanders (-10.5)

Dallas is cooked at this point. Cooper Rush dropped back 55 times Monday night for 354 yards and the Cowboys still only managed to put up 10 points. Why would I think they’d do any better on the road on a short week against a division rival playing for the top seed when they have to play again in four days?

Pick: Commanders

Lions at Colts (+7.5)

I underestimated the Lions last week and, even with the Colts showing signs of life, I’m not  making that same mistake two weeks in a row.

Pick: Lions

Chiefs at Panthers (+10.5)

Panthers were on a two-game win streak before last week’s bye but let’s not overthink this one. Chiefs are going to roll and Kareem Hunt will eat in what will likely be his last game as Kansas City’s lead back.

Pick: Chiefs

Bucs at Giants (+6)

The Giants letting Saquon Barkley walk and sticking with Daniel Jones only for them to be forced into cutting Jones is the kind of story that should get the front office fired immediately. That being said, the Jersey paisan in me wants to believe in Tommy DeVito.

Do I believe in him enough to take Big Blue over the Bucs with a returning Mike Evans? Hell no.

But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants’ offense moves the ball a little better with Cutlets behind center.

Pick: Bucs

Titans at Texans (-8)

The Titans have scored more than 20 points just once this season as Tennessee has rode the defense heavily while Will Levis and Mason Rudolph prove to be as useless as putting mayonnaise in coffee. Texans QB CJ Stroud has also been a flop this season but there’s too much talent on both side of the ball for Houston to not rout here.

Pick: Texans

Patriots at Dolphins (-7.5)

The Patriots are a scrappy bunch that desperately needs a weapon for QB Drake Maye. Colorado’s Travis Hunter is a dynamic playmaker who is about to win the Heisman. I see no reason for New England to jeopardize their shot at a game-changer by trying too hard to improve their paltry record. I don’t trust the Dolphins yet, but for them to even dream of sniffing the postseason, they can’t miss these kind of layups.

Pick: Dolphins

Vikings at Bears (+3.5)

The Bears might’ve had a shot at living up to preseason expectations if they didn’t have Matt Eberflus as their head coach but, after last week, it’s painfully obvious now that the team is going nowhere with him on the sidelines.

A Minnesota pass rush that’s third in sacks is going to tee off on Caleb Williams.

Pick: Vikings

Broncos at Raiders (+5.5)

The Broncos look like a playoff team, Bo Nix looks like the real deal and the Raiders look like they’ll be giving Daniel Jones a call by halftime.

Pick: Broncos

Niners at Packers (-5.5)

The Niners have won four of their last six against the Packers including last year’s divisional playoff showdown and two straight NFC Championship games, but injuries put their chances of going 5-for-7 in jeopardy. QB Brock Purdy, All-Pro def defensive end Nick Bosa and all-pro left tackle Trent Williams all seem unlikely to suit up.

Of course, all of that could be moot if Jordan Love’s turnover woes continue. Love is tied for the league lead with 11 interceptions despite missing three weeks and he’s thrown at least one pick in every game he’s played this season. Still, if Love can’t outduel Brandon Allen at home, the Packers might as well forget about the playoffs.

Pick: Packers

Cardinals at Seahawks (-1)

Arizona finds itself still atop the NFC West thanks in large part to a soft schedule. The Cardinals have won win over an above .500 team (their Week 7 Monday night win over the Chargers that came on a last-second field goal) while all of their losses are against potential playoff contenders. The Seahawks aren’t above .500 and the jury is out as to whether they’ll make the postseason, but with two cracks at the Cards in the next three weeks, there’s no better time to show the world what they’re worth.

Pick: Seahawks

Eagles at Rams (+3)

This feels like a trap game. The Eagles have won six straight and have a big showdown with Baltimore next week that could be a Super Bowl preview. Before that, they go on the road in primetime against a cagey Rams team still trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. It’s hard to bet against Philly right now but these are the kind of games that typically trip them up.

Pick: Rams

Ravens at Chargers (+2.5)

The Harbaugh brothers will meet for third time ever and the first time since John beat Jim in Super Bowl 47 when the latter was coaching the Niners. John’s 2-0 against his younger brother and, while Jim’s defense is the best one John’s Ravens has faced all season, I don’t see the Chargers being able to muster up enough offense to keep up with Lamar Jackson and Co., even if L.A. can manage to slow them down.

John goes up 3-0 in what should be a fun one.

Pick: Ravens