Wild Card Playoffs Picks

Since Gabe missed Week 17, we didn't bother to count it into the regular season record and just gave him the regular season crown. We'll put an asterisk on it though. Truth be told, Gabe didn't even have to mail in his picks from across the water because, while The Big Adobo had an excuse for vacating the final week of the season, Dave had no answer for his no-show.

Here's our take on the playoffs' opening weekend:

LAST WEEK

Dave: 5-9
Gabe: n/a

REGULAR SEASON(through Week 16)

Gabe: 120-112-11
Dave: 113-121-11

Lions (+10.5) at Saints

Dave: Lions - Howie Long said it best on "The Dan Patrick Show"....this has Baylor-Washington written all over it. Double digits is asking a lot considering this Lions team just went punch-for-punch with a slightly better Packers team in Lambeau(granted, with no Aaron Rodgers). The Saints are going to win this game but they aren't going to dominate and arrogant spreads like these are what gives underdogs like Detroit momentum to make Super Bowl runs. New Orleans doesn't have an answer for Calvin Johnson but New Orleans spreads the ball out too much and too quickly for Detroit's solid pass rush to get their hands on Drew Brees. I think this is a shootout til the end because neither team can run the ball consistently enough to eat up clock. Saints by 6.


Gabe: Saints


Bengals (+3.5) at Texans


Dave: Bengals - You wonder what this Texans team would be like if they had a healthy Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Unfortunately, they don't and the Bengals are good enough against the run to neutralize Houston's last remaining weapon: Arian Foster. It's hard betting on a rookie QB and a rookie WR on a team that chronically underachieves in the playoffs to go on the road and notch a win but Houston is way too beat up to put up a fight here. Bengals by 4.


Gabe: Bengals


Steelers (-8) at Broncos


Dave: Broncos - I think Denver loses here but keep in mind that Pittsburgh hasn't covered a spread with Roethlisberger at QB since Ben hurt his ankle against Cleveland a month ago. With Mendenhall out, they need Issac Redman to be this year's James Starks. Could it happen? Sure. But the Steelers are going to have to eventually establish the passing game if they are going to beat the Broncos by more than a touchdown. I think we see struggles by both offenses and a defensive touchdown is the difference here. Steelers by 7.


Gabe: Broncos - Denver loses but all of the Pittsburgh injuries keep this one close.


Falcons (+3) at Giants


Dave: Falcons - The Giants' D-line spent the week talking shit about the Falcons' offensive line. Karma usually isn't favorable towards teams that provide bulletin board material, particularly in big games such as this. The Falcons have the balance on offense that the Giants don't and Michael Turner is the perfect kind of big body bruiser to play in the wintery chills of the Meadowlands. New York is the scariest team in these playoffs but I think all the fuss about Green Bay and New Orleans and San Francisco has allowed us to forget that Atlanta's pretty damn good too. I'm going for the upset here. Falcons by 10.


Gabe: Giants - I truly think my Giants go one and done in this years playoffs, but they are going to get this one. If they can corral Michael Turner (not an easy task by any stretch) and put the Falcons in passing situations then the Giants' pass rush will wreack havoc on Matty Ice. Giants by a touchdown.

2012 NFL Playoff Preview

With the speed of a Ted Ginn Jr. punt return, the regular season has ended and tomorrow the playoffs will commence. This year's tournament looks more like a March Madness bracket where uncertainty and inconsistency means all it will take is the right team getting hot to make a Super Bowl run. You can make the case for any of these 12 teams making the Super Bowl(OK, maybe not Houston). Our takes on the games themselves will come tomorrow just before kickoff. Today will be more of a primer of things to expect and what to watch.

Before I get into that, though, some post-regular season awards.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers - Andy Dalton is going to grab a few votes because he's actually still playing while Cam was making vacation plans for January months ago. However, if Newton and Dalton switch teams, which team benefits more? I'm saying Cincinnati does. Look, I'm not knocking Dalton at all. He had to make the same transition Newton did as a rookie who had to learn an offense with a shortened training camp. That being said, your only case for Dalton is the team's success, which is as much because of fellow rookie A.J. Green as it is "The Red Rifle". Newton's numbers, though, make this a no-brainer. 4,051 yards passing, 701 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, NFL-record 14 rushing TDs. Newton finished with more yards than last year's NFC rushing champion Ahmad Bradshaw and scored more touchdowns on the ground than anyone not named LeSean McCoy. Dalton might have helped make the Bengals a playoff team but Cam Newton makes the Panthers very scary for years to come.



Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers - A lot of good candidates this year. Patrick Peterson was huge for Arizona but his best moments came more in the return game than on defense. Von Miller looked like he had this award wrapped up and then he injured his hand and the air came out of the tires. If anything, the Broncos' lack of punch with Miller hurt(no pun intended) could actually help Miller's case more than hurt it. Still, it's hard to argue the impact of Aldon Smith on what might be the league's best defense. 14 sacks and a safety are pretty impressive numbers and Smith, unlike Miller, has a signature game to hang his hat on. With Pro Bowl ILB Patrick Willis on the sidelines, Smith stepped up on national television and reeked havoc on Pittsburgh to the tune of 2.5 sacks and provided constant pressure on Big Ben. It was one of four multi-sack games for Smith. Miller? Only one, and he didn't register a sack the final three weeks of the season, which allowed Smith to overtake. Either way, this was a good year for rookies on defense.



Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers - Not that my opinion or ability to predict division standings in the preseason(or lack thereof) mean anything, but I had San Francisco finishing third in the NFC West in my preseason preview and, at the time, I thought that was generous. Nobody, and I mean, NOBODY, saw Harbaugh rallying this group together with an abbreviated training camp, forming the league's best defense, making Alex Smith somewhat respectable at QB and combining all those components to create the NFC's #2 seed.

It's hard to give Harbaugh too much credit as he's an offensive-minded coach whose team is led primarily by its defense and whose offense is, at best, pedestrian. John Fox might get some love here, too, for resurrecting a Broncos team that was 3-13 last year and making them a division champion. What knocks Fox down a peg to me is that the fact that he seemed begrudgingly happy over the team's success when Tim Tebow took over as the team's starting QB. The entire 2011 Broncos season under Touchdown Jesus was Fox and John Elway trying their hardest not to grit their teeth over not being able to replace Tebow in the offseason and pretending to put their arm around their franchise savior with half-hearted kudos and back-handed compliments. Harbaugh, meanwhile, never looked ashamed that he was winning the West with one of the all-time biggest Draft busts as his QB and has the Niners looking like the closest thing to the 2000 Ravens that we've seen in 11 years.

Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens - Gabe texted me a couple weeks ago giving me props for being one of the only people to see the breakout of Jason Pierre-Paul coming(something I mentioned in a preseason preview two years ago). JPP deserves some Defensive MVP love and there's a chance he steals this award from T-Sizzle with his recent surge the last month or so. 86 tackles, 16.5 sacks and a safety are damn good numbers for a defensive end and those numbers dwarf those of Suggs for the most part.

My reasoning for Suggs over Paul is two-fold: One, while his numbers aren't as great as JPP's, Suggs' numbers are still excellent: 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 2 INTs and 7 forced fumbles. Both men shined against heated division rivals. Pierre-Paul dominated both games against the Cowboys en route to helping seal an NFC East title for the Giants while Suggs laid a whooping on Pittsburgh in Week 1 with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles to set the tone for what would be an AFC North-winning campaign for the Ravens. Secondly, while Suggs has tons of quality talent around him on that Ravens D, Baltimore is lacking in the pass-rushing department beyond T-Sizzle. JPP has Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka(even if all three were hurt at some point in the year). I'm not taking anything away from JPP, but it's much easier to dominate when opposing offenses have guys everywhere to look out for. Offenses facing the Ravens knew the pass rush lived and died with Terrell Suggs....and he still made them pay every week.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - A bit of a spoiler here, I suppose, for my pick for MVP as Brees' selection here pretty much gives away my MVP pick(though, if you read my take on this matter a week ago, you should have already known my choice to begin with). The Brees-Rodgers debate is something that can for hours, maybe even days. You want to say Matt Flynn's breakout game last week against Detroit hurts A-Rod in terms of the "value" discussion for MVP? I won't kill you for it. When Flynn is starting elsewhere, we'll know whether he was a product of the system or not, but to ask "Well, if Matt Flynn started for Green Bay all season and Chase Daniel started all season for the Saints, what would their records be?" is a question that is impossible to answer and should have no bearing when comparing the two guys who did actually start for the Saints and Packers all season(or in Rodgers' case, almost all season). Brees' only advantage over Rodgers is in pure numbers. Rodgers has the better team record. Rodgers beat Brees head-to-head.

That being said, Brees deserves his just due and winning this award doesn't shortchange everything Brees accomplished. Nearly 5,500 yards and 46 TD's are amazing numbers and Brees' shattering of Dan Marino's passing record is an achievement I don't believe any QB going forward will be able to take from him. He deserves his time in the sun. He just doesn't deserve MVP.

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers - Week 17 definitely hurt Rodgers' case, but let's not act like people weren't looking for a reason to give the MVP to Brees a week prior when he broke the passing yards record. Rodgers had nothing to play for in Week 17 so he didn't. Brees didn't have anything left to play for in the 4th quarter of the Falcons game(except the record) and damn sure how nothing left to prove in the second half against the Panthers, but Sean Payton had him in there anyway. It's hard to give credit to such a blatant attempt to put a guy over. Aaron Rodgers was so incredibly consistent week-after-week that it became boring to talk about. We ran out of hyperbole. We ran out of reasons to compare his season to Brady's 2007 or find ways to put him over Brett Favre, so we just stopped. Meanwhile, Drew Brees was unleashing an assault on the record books and he became the new fun thing to talk about. In a world where what's "trending" changes within minutes, some decided to switch from Rodgers to Brees.

And I'm not saying MVP talk for Brees is unwarranted, just that, short of a few records, there's nothing Brees accomplished this season that Rodgers hadn't as well. 14-1 as a starter, nearly 4,700 yards passing, a 45-6 TD-to-INT ratio(in an offense that barely ever runs the ball, no less) and an NFL-record 122.5 QB rating are still astonishing numbers, even if they aren't as gaudy as Brees' in some aspects. As I said a week ago, Rodgers vs. Brees is something that will only be cleared up in a rematch, if it happens, this season. You wish we could suspend the MVP til then, but we can't. For this season, Aaron Rodgers played this season like a maestro leading an orchestra. Whether he's better than Drew Brees is a case Rodgers already made once this season, but he'll be more than glad to refresh your memory in a couple weeks.

And, now......some playoff thoughts.

Sneakiest Potental First Round Upset: Broncos over Steelers - Hold the hate, Pittsburgh. Let me explain myself here.

1. No Rashard Mendenhall. No Ryan Clark. No Maurkice Pouncey. Big Ben is, surprise surprise, banged up with yet another injury he's going to try to play through. A swiss-cheese Steelers offensive line is going up against a Broncos pass rush with a two-headed monster in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Champ Bailey is going to put the clamps on Mike Wallace and it's in Denver, with thousands of psycho Bronco fans in attendance for their first home playoff game in years.

2. Tim Tebow might not be much of a QB, but he finds ways to win and John Fox is a playoff-tested head coach. He's not going to let Tebow blow this game. With no running game and potentially no deep attack for the Steelers, this game could very well be closer than you think. You know who thrives in close games? Tim Tebow.

3. Keep in mind that, this time last year, nobody gave the Seattle Seahawks a chance to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Saints at home in the first round, and we saw how that ended. I'm not saying Denver's going to win this one, but history has shown that victories this time of year are hardly a certainty(Trust me, as someone who thought Green Bay was going to throttle the Giants in 2007). If you don't have your doubts about the Steelers on Sunday, then you're either kidding yourself or have more confidence than most.

Sleeper Team That Can Make A Real Run: New York Giants - NYG is a bit of a wild card. On the one hand, they possess the league's best pass rush in a playoffs that will see them potentially face four of the best passing offenses in the NFL if things fall that way(Atlanta in Round 1, followed by potentially Green Bay, New Orleans and New England). They can sling the ball with anybody(as they proved with their nailbiting loss to Green Bay a month ago), and they have the experience of entering the playoffs under the radar(2007.....when they went from 6 seed to Super Bowl champions). On the other, they tend to shit the bed every now and then(swept by the lowly Redskins, losing to a Vince Young-led Eagles team, getting worked by Seattle early in the year) and, despite having a talented duo in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, Big Blue struggles running the ball(league worst rushing offense). The Giants could emulate their run in 2007......or their season could come to screeching halt against Atlanta this weekend.

Biggest Playoff X-Factor: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens - While we're on the subject of the 2007 Giants, I compared Flacco to Eli Manning prior to his '07 playoff run. Same emotionless body language. Same tendency to hold the ball too long. Same boneheaded decision making. Like Manning, Flacco holds the keys to a legit Super Bowl contender. Baltimore had Pittsburgh on the ropes last year in the Divisional Round before the wheels came off in the second half. If Baltimore ends up pulling that one out, who knows how that 2010 season ends? Do the Ravens top the Jets? Does Rex Ryan's Super Bowl prediction come true or does he fail and Baltimore makes it? Does Aaron Rodgers carve up the Ravens like he did the Steelers? We'll never know. Here's what we do know: The window on Baltimore's standing as Super Bowl contenders is rapidly closing. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, sure-fire Hall of Famers on their last legs, aren't going to be around much longer to rally the troops and, for as good as Ray Rice has been this season, the offense needs Flacco to step up to keep defenses on their toes. The Ravens have shown this year that have what it takes to topple the Steelers(albeit in the regular season) but for them to make a run, Flacco needs to avoid the critical mistakes that have plagued in games like the ones against Jacksonville and San Diego. If Flacco takes the next step like Manning in '07, you can pencil Baltimore in to their first Super Bowl since 2000.

2012 NFL Playoffs' Unsung Hero(The David Tyree Award): Darren Sproles, RB, Saints - A couple of things you might not have known about Sproles' 2011 season: He nearly doubled the best rushing total of his career with 603 yards(on only 87 carries, for an average of 6.9 a carry). He caught 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 TD's in an offense that loves to spread it around. That's a little over 1,300 yards of offense and we haven't even gotten into his production in the return game(though it should be mentioned he had one punt return of 40+ yards and a TD as well as two 40+ yard kickoff returns this season). With Mark Ingram out and Pierre Thomas being, well, Pierre Thomas, Sproles is the Saints' best weapon on the ground and his receiving and return numbers proves he can be dangerous from nearly anywhere. He's this generation's Dave Meggett, a diminutive back who doesn't have every-down size but can give you every-down production and is a threat to take it the distance no matter how he touches the ball. Teams are going to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to game plan Drew Brees or Marque Colston or Jimmy Graham. The guy they need to worry about is the 5'6 midget with the lightning fast feet.

Legit Story We Are Way Too Worried About: Detroit's Week 17 loss to Green Bay - A couple years ago, Green Bay walked into Arizona on the final weekend of the regular season and laid an ass whooping on the Cardinals. A week later, the two teams met in the Wild Card round and the Packers had to rally back from a 21-0 deficit to lose a heartbreaker in overtime to the eventual NFC champions. We learned two things from Detroit's loss last week: Their defense gives up a ton of yards and points....and their offense can go score-for-score with anyone. For as bad as that shootout against Matt Flynn and company was Motown's defense, it should be the Lions only lost by four and had a chance to win on the final drive before Sam Shields came up with the game-clinching pick. Who's to say the ball can't bounce in Detroit's favor against New Orleans? There aren't many defenses, if there are any, that can keep Calvin Johnson in check and, while the numbers might tell a different story, a defense led by Ndomukong Suh is still pretty damn scary. The Lions have as much young talent as anybody and, lest we forget, this team was one of the last two undefeated teams standing before losing to Chicago in Week 10. Did the wheels come off the bandwagon in Motor City or did Detroit use last week's loss as a chance to regroup and come out firing when the real season starts? Time will tell.

Legit Story We Are NOT Worried Enough About: Bill O'Brien taking the Penn St head coaching job - There are two differing precedents here we could use for New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's decision to take the Penn State job before the playoffs start and its effect it will have on the team. There's the precedent from a few years back when then-Patriot coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis found head coaching jobs while still working for New England during their Super Bowl run(Weis with Notre Dame, Crennel with the Browns). Those hirings didn't distract the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl and both men ended up getting a classy sendoff as the team hoisted the Lombardi trophy. Then, there was Weis, in his return to the NFL as the OC of the Kansas City Chiefs, taking the OC job with the University of Florida prior to the Chiefs facing the Ravens in Round 1. The Chiefs looked anemic on offense, Weis and Todd Haley butted heads at halftime and Weis left the team on unpleasant terms. We won't know which way this new scenario will play out but it seems ridiculous to think that it can't end like Weis' did in Kansas City last year. O'Brien is a fiery guy(as we saw with his shouting match with Tom Brady earlier this season) and he's just agreed to take a job at one of the most infamous schools in college football history, replacing the greatest college football coach of all-time, a year after a scandal that rocked the entire country all season. You don't think Billy O might be a little preoccupied right now?

And last, but certainly, not least.......the obligatory Super Bowl prediction.

Super Bowl 46: Ravens 27, Saints 24 - I had Saints-Patriots in the preseason and, truth be told, I was more than ready to stick with that.......until I wrote the previous paragraph. I have a hard time convincing myself this O'Brien thing won't be a distraction and, even if it's not, this Patriots defense is horrible. In fact, it may be the worst of the 12 playoff teams and that includes a Lions squad that just gave up 45 points to the Packers B team. The Ravens have proven they aren't scared of Pittsburgh and I'd be more confident in the Steelers getting revenge if they didn't have to do it in Baltimore and if they weren't so beat up. As for the Saints, I think Drew Brees gets the best of Aaron Rodgers this time around in the NFC Championship as sort of a "Screw you" to MVP voters. I have zero confidence in this Packers defense and I think there is a more than decent chance they could be one and done if they cross paths with the Giants again in Round 2. Saints-Ravens pits the league's statistically-best QB against the AFC's best defense and, as we've seen time and time again, defense wins championships.

Wild Card Picks

The NFL regular season is over with and Gabe took home the Picks title for the second year in a row(pretty much by default, since I voided out by two best weeks). That means we get to move on to the meat of the season: The NFL Playoffs.



Here's our takes on this weekend's Wild Card games.(Editor's Note: Gabe's once again M.I.A., so I guess I'm riding solo on this one.)



Jets (+3) at Colts



Dave: Jets - Do you think fate looked down at that Titans-Colts game as Indy was setting up for winning field goal and thought "Oh shit, we're a Titans win away from seeing Jacksonville host a playoff game! Let's go Colts!"? I haven't been sold on Peyton Manning's boys all season. Manning's played like a one-man army from jump street and now they host the worst possible matchup for them. The Colts can't stop the run. The Jets are one of the best rushing teams in football. The Colts are thin at receiver. The Jets have All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. I can't remember the last time Manning made a first round exit, but my money is on it happening this year. Jets pull off the mild upset and win 20-13.





Saints (-10) at Seahawks



Dave: Saints - A small part of me wanted to believe that Qwest Field will be loud and rowdy enough to at least mildly deter the Saints from coming into town and blowing the doors off.....but, even if Drew Brees and company start off slow, the Seahawks don't have enough offense to fend off the Saints for long. I think we are underestimating Seattle here a little, but not to the point where losing by two touchdowns at home is impossible. Saints by 17.





Packers (+2.5) at Eagles



Dave: Eagles - A matchup between two biggest brain fart specialists in the league? I can't wait! Green Bay beat Philly in Philly already this season but that was so long ago, it might as well be biblical. The key for the Packers to beat Philly will be finding a way to shut down or knock out Mike Vick by either putting his lights out or chewing up clock with the running game and keeping Vick and his fast paced offense off the field. I believe in the Packers' chances of doing the former but not the latter. The Eagles have given up the 2nd most passing touchdowns of any defense in the NFC, so this is going to be a shootout. Still, the Eagles can run the ball with Vick or "Shady" McCoy when it matters and the Packers are terrible on the ground. For reverse jinx purposes and my own profound pessimism, I'll take Philly here by 3.





Ravens (-3) at Chiefs



Dave: Ravens - Terrible matchup for Kansas City here. The Chiefs' offensive line struggled protecting Matt Cassell from getting beat up by Oakland last week and Baltimore's defense is much more physical. The only shot Kansas City has is if they get some dumb penalities from the Ravens and their playmakers in the secondary get a few big mistakes from Joe Flacco. Other than that, KC's Cinderella story ends here. Ravens by 13.

In This Corner.....

"To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" - Ric Flair

Tomorrow kicks off the NFL postseason, and this year's tournament has a little something for everybody. We've got a couple lovable underdogs(Kansas City, Seattle), some old school, blue collar smashmouth teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago), a few that like to air it out(Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, New England), a feel-good comeback story(Philadelphia) and even a reality TV star(New York).

Today, we're going to break down the teams to beat in their respective conferences, who has the best chance of knocking them off, and who are this year's dark horses, X-Factors and potential breakout stars. In the process, there will be plenty of pop culture boxing and wrestling references that will inevitably get me made fun of by Gabe.

Paper Champion(the conference favorite): New England Patriots - The Patriots have reverted back to handling business like they did in the pre-Randy Moss years, relying on chemistry and rhythm rather than loading up on the big play downfield. Go-routes have been traded in for quick slants, bubble screens and the occasional hand-off or two. New England managed to finally find an adequate running game via "The Lawfirm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis(1,008 yards rushing, 13 TDs). The effectiveness of Ellis on the ground has kept defenses from focusing on Tom Brady, which has led to Brady not turning the ball over in two months. Defensively, the Patriots' bend-but-don't-break defense is what makes this team more Piston Honda than Mr. Dream(or Mike Tyson, for those who didn't play the original Punch-Out). The team doesn't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks(OLB Tully Banta-Cain) and, outside of rookie CB Devin McCourtey's 7 picks, no other player has more than 3 interceptions. That's led to the Pats being near the bottom in pass defense(30th) and total yardage allowed(25th), and is the chief reason why this Patriots team may not steamroll through the playoffs like many are assuming.

The Contender(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ): Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are the last team to intercept Brady, picking him off twice in their 23-20 OT loss to New England back on Oct. 17th. The Ravens also possess the ability to strike at New England's Achilles' heel, which is pounding the ball inside with the run game as well as be physical and aggressive enough on defense to smack Brady in the mouth. That was the formula Baltimore used to trounce the Patriots in Foxboro last year and this year's version of the Ravens now have a passing game to complement The Ray Rice Show. You could throw the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mix here, too, but only if DE Aaron Smith manages to come back from a torn triceps that kept him out most of the season(which the chances of that are slim) as well as if S Troy Polamalu can stay healthy(also no guarantee).

Little Mac Award:(team with an outside shot becoming champion): New York Jets - The Jets spent the offseason in "win now" mode, uniting every title-hungry veteran in the Meadowlands as if they were filming an NFL version of "The Expendables". Gang Green has been up and down all year, faced with its own inconsistency(the terrible second half play of QB Mark Sanchez and the disappearance of LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch, for starters) as well as a myriad of distractions(Braylon Edwards' DUI, the filming of "Hard Knocks", the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger fiasco, Michelle Ryan's foot fetish videos), and that has tempered some of the early season Super Bowl hype. That may work in the Jets' favor. 11-5 teams ranked in the top 5 in nearly every defensive category with a QB that's playoff seasoned and a run game that ranks among the top in the league can be a scary team to face(especially in the cold). The X-Factor for New York will be Tomlinson. Left for dead by the San Diego Chargers after years of coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl, LT ran with a vengeance early in the season and then tapered off in the last couple of months(less than 60 yards rushing every game since mid-October). Time will tell whether it's because Rex Ryan was saving his aging lead back for the playoffs or it's a further sign of decline for the future Hall of Famer. Regardless, an L.T./Shonn Greene combination as well as Sanchez finally finding a game breaker in former Steeler WR Santonio Holmes(another guy with playoff seasoning) may give the Jets the type of balance that makes them a tough matchup these next few weeks(especially against their opening round opponent, Indianapolis, which is soft against the run). On defense, they haven't missed NT Kris Jenkins much, as the team finished the regular season third in run defense. OLBs Jason Taylor, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas provided a fierce pass rush, with all three notching over 5 sacks a piece(Taylor leading the way with 6), although the secondary hasn't been able to take full advantage of the pressure the front seven has provided(a surprisingly low 12 team INTs).


Mickey Ward Award(player with the most to prove): Ravens QB Joe Flacco - This was supposed to be "The Year of Jersey Joe". With wide receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Donte Stallworth added to an arsenal that already featured fellow wideout Derrick Mason and versatile RB Ray Rice, Flacco was supposed to step up into the elite ranks of signal callers. Flacco's numbers were respectable(62% completion percentage, nearly 3,700 yards passing, 25 TDs, 10 INTs) but the offensive line has failed him at times(40 sacks allowed). We all know no team can succeed in January without at least competent QB play(even though the Ravens last title came with Trent Dilfer leading them), so it goes without saying that the Ravens are screwed if Flacco isn't ready for primetime. Still, the case can be made that no QB in the AFC has as many high-profile weapons as Flacco does and, with a defense littered with stars whose championship window is closing quickly(MLB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed), the Ravens' fate lies in the hands of their 6'6 238-pound gunslinger.


Hasim Rahman Award(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Eric Berry, S, Chiefs - It's hard to say a rookie heralded as "the next Ed Reed" can possibly fly under the radar and become an overnight celebrity(especially after a 92-tackle, 2 sack, 1 forced fumble, 4-INT rookie campaign), but Berry has the skills to make his mark in these playoffs. Normally, breakout stars are found on the offensive side of the ball(as we saw with Pierre Garcon and Shonn Greene last year), but fantasy football has emerged to the point where any run-of-the-mill offensive playmaker can become a household name with a breakout game(which is why this spot wasn't given to Patriots TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). The Chiefs are a team with no real notable wins, which is why many have written them off as "one and done" once they host Baltimore on Sunday. However, since Baltimore's defense will stifle the Chiefs' underrated offense for most of the night in Arrowhead, Kansas City's best shot at an upset will be to match the Ravens' efforts defensively. Given how important safety play has become in the NFL, that means we're looking at a potentially big game for Berry.

Pacquaio-Mayweather Award(conference's most anticipated matchup): Colts at Patriots - As much as I hate the slurpfest that these New England-Indianapolis matchups end up becoming in the pregame hype leading up to kickoff, there's no denying that Brady vs. Manning is this generation's Marino vs. Montana(or Aikman vs. Young or Marino vs. Elway, whichever you choose).

The Brady-Manning showdowns almost always live up to the hype, with this year's regular season clash being no exception. The Colts attempted to come back from a double-digit deficit but a Peyton Manning interception on the potential game-winning drive gave New England the win. With New England and Indianapolis hardly possessing lights out defenses, a potential rematch between the two will no doubt be another shootout and, while matchups against the Jets, Steelers or Ravens would be entertaining, no team is better at playing the foil to the Patriots than Manning's Colts.

TV Champion(The conference favorite): Atlanta Falcons - They trot out the NFC's most balanced attack combined with being nearly untouchable at home. If The Carolinas are "Flair Country, the A-T-L is "Matty Ice Land". Matt Ryan, in his third year, is a long playoff run away from stepping into the next tier of franchise QBs. Helping him along the way will be bruising running back Michael "The Burner" Turner and Ryan's pass-catching tag team partner Roddy White. The Falcons' balance on offense is their calling card. Their suspect defense, however, is what makes them a shaky favorite. Despite being 5th in points allowed, the are 22nd against the pass, and 16th in total yards. That's a bit troubling in a conference that will see them face pass-heavy teams like Philly, Green Bay or New Orleans. Luckily, the Falcons get to play host in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, where the team has lost three times in head coach Mike Smith's three years and where Ryan has lost just twice as a starter. What goes against the Falcons, other than their leaky pass D, is their relative inexperience. Ryan made the playoffs a couple years ago as a rookie, but still doesn't have a playoff W. The Falcons also don't have a convincing win against a legit contender this season. Atlanta got some Charles Robinson-type poor officiating to help them beat Baltimore a couple months ago, and they edged out New Orleans by way of a shanked Garrett Hartley chip shot in OT as well as sneaking out a win against Green Bay thanks to a bad facemask penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. Of the top seeds in these playoffs, the Falcons look like the sketchiest, but that's why we play the games.


The Legend Killer(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ) : New Orleans Saints - As I said earlier, they came thisclose to sweeping Atlanta and they proved their mettle by going into the Georgia Dome two weeks ago and pulling out a W on national television. The Saints have the NFC's best coach(Sean Payton) and best QB(Drew Brees) and, perhaps the biggest factor, they've been here before. Brees is one of two QBs(Mike Vick being the other) with a playoff win to his name in the NFC and, even though rookie QBs have made big playoff runs in years past, experience goes a long way in the playoffs, especially during crunch time. Defensively, unlike their NFC South rival, the Saints are stout against the pass(but not so much against the run) and they have the easiest of the four Wild Card matchups by drawing a putrid Seahawks team that they crushed in Week 11(34-19 in New Orleans). What will hurt the Saints the most is their lack of a run game. RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are done for the postseason, meaning the weight now falls squarely on former poster child Reggie Bush to provide some production on the ground. Bush's biggest plays of his pro career have come in the postseason(his electrifying run against Chicago a few years ago and last year's dominance of the Cardinals). If Bush can be even somewhat close to USC Reggie Bush, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC...hands down.

The Third Man(team with an outside shot of making a surprise run): Green Bay Packers - Call me a homer, but history tends to reflect positively on teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Green Bay possesses the 2nd best overall defense(statistically, at least) and the 10th best scoring offense. They are 5th in total yards allowed and pass defense, 9th in total yards, and 5th in passing. Obviously, what holds Green Bay back is both the lack of a run game and their occasional struggles with stopping the run. Since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, the team has tried everything short of resuscitating Edgar Bennett to get something going on the ground. Brandon Jackson, the man who was initially drafted to be the Packers' lead back, finished with a little over 700 yards rushing and even his relatively decent games have been few and far between. The Packers' offense still lives and dies through Aaron Rodgers, who put up yet another stellar season(65.7% completion percentage, 3,922 yards passing, 28 TDs and 11 INTs) even despite falling victim to two concussions. The key is keeping Rodgers' upright. The Packers' offensive line, the team's biggest weakness at this point last year, cut down its sacks allowed from 51 last year to 38 this year but still aren't exactly a brick wall when it comes to defending a pass rush. If Rodgers gets time to throw, though, look out. Very few teams in the NFC(or even the NFL) can match offenses with the Packers, especially with the way the defense has played of late. Led by a reigning Defensive Player of the Year(CB Charles Woodson) and the frontrunner for this year's DPOY award(LB Clay Matthews), the Packers have put opposing offenses on lockdown. The road to Dallas will be rough, however. Although they beat Philadelphia at The Linc in Week 1, the win came when the Packers were much healthier than they are now and with Mike Vick on the bench for the first half. If they can somehow repeat their opening week performance, they will then have to go into Atlanta where they lost a close one to the Falcons a couple months ago. If they can survive that, they'll either travel to Chicago for a third showdown with the Bears(who they lost to at Soldier Field earlier in the season) or to NOLA to face the defending champs. The Packers eeked into the playoffs, despite a multitude of key injuries, but if they can stay away from dumb penalties and find a way to pull out wins in close games(two HUGE ifs), this team will be right where many had them in the preseason: The Super Bowl. (Side Note: For those who don't get the "Third Man" reference, take a look at this. P.S. When it comes to announcing, Tony Schiavone makes Jon Gruden look like Vin Scully.)

Most In Need To Get "Over"(Player with the most to prove): Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - As great as this storybook season has been for Mike Vick(62.8% completion, 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 30 total TDs, 6 INTs) the best chapter has yet to be written. Vick needs a postseason that mirrors the first half of his regular season to end one of the greatest comebacks in this sport's history. Vick went from the league's most notorious heel to its biggest babyface after coming off the bench for the injured Kevin Kolb and finally realizing the potential that made him a #1 pick in 2001. Finally able to dominate with both his arm and his legs, Vick has morphed into the league's most electrifying player. Still, in the past couple of weeks, Vick's old form has reared its ugly head. For a guy who is often the fastest man on the field, he still takes far too many sacks and his scrambling ability makes him prone to big hits that his smallish frame can't continue to withstand. If the Eagles are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders, everything rides on Number Seven's ability to continue to extend plays with his feet while remaining accurate with his passes. The combination of Vick's versatility and the incendiary speed of playmakers like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy make the Eagles like a more modern "Greatest Show On Turf", and with Vick's contract up at the year, a lot rides on him closing the show much like he started it.

From Jobber To Superstar(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Mike Williams, WR, Seattle - Lost in all the glitz of the soon-to-be-a-Hollywood-blockbuster-with-Terrence-Howard-playing-the-lead-role comeback story of Mike Vick is the triumphant return of another Mike: former Lions first round bust Mike Williams. Sure, Williams didn't even have the best season of guys sharing the same name(Tampa's Mike Williams had a better year on a far better team that is far more deserving of a playoff spot than these Seahawks), but he's arguably the best player on the worst team in these playoffs and since we're hours away from forgetting anything sports-related the city of Seattle will have to offer between now and baseball season, we might as well give the Seahawks some face time. As good as the Saints are against the pass, it's tough to really account for a receiver built like BMW("Big" Mike Williams, for you slow-witted folk). Williams runs 6'5, 235 pounds, with hands like magnets and the speed of a minivan. He's pretty much a glorified tight end, but he's going to be Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable target and there's going to be at least a play or two tomorrow where you sit up and say "Oh shit! Who the hell is that!?". The Seahawks' only hope of pulling off a 123 Kid/Razor Ramon-type upset will be if Williams can move the chains and get the loudest crowd in the NFL motivated enough to at least somewhat intimidate the defending champs. I can see BMW reeling in five or six catches and a score as the Seahawks make things interesting on the first drive.....and then proceed to get annihilated for the next 3 1/2 quarters. At least now you can say you know who Mike Williams is before you bother use Wikipedia during the commercial break.


Steamboat vs Flair Award(most anticipated matchup) Eagles at Falcons - Eventhough the NFC plays the inferior ugly stepsister to the AFC, there are some good potential matchups on the horizon. Packers-Saints would be exciting, as would Saints-Eagles and maybe even Falcons-Bears. However, in continuing with the "Comeback Story of Mike Vick" theme, this postseason can really only shape up one way: With Mike Vick trying to lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl by going into the place that he once packed to the rafters and taking on his successor. Mike Vick vs. the team that threw him away IN Georgia. You can't script it better than that. The place will be filled with deafening mixed emotions, with some glad to see Mike Vick back while others unwilling to forgive him for why he left. On top of that, it pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other, on the Georgia Dome carpet, for a chance at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As much as it goes against every fiber in my being to root against my Packers, the only way I can digest a Eagles win this weekend would be if it led to Vick inevitably stepping foot into the place he once called home, staring out into the crowd he once flipped off "Stone Cold" Steve Austin-style, and putting on a show similar to his Madden-like performance against the Redskins on Monday night.

Pay-Per-View Headliners(the five, er, six best potential Super Bowl matchups):



Honorable Mention: Seahawks-Jets - Barring some kind of Disney-scripted fairy tale postseason run, this has absolutely NO SHOT at happening. However, if Seattle can pull off a Cinderella run, we get Mark Sanchez against the college coach that chastised Sanchez's decision to declare early. We get a week's worth of Rex Ryan soundbites, a chance to see LaDainian Tomlinson in the Super Bowl, the first ever Super Bowl matchup featuring a team that finished the regular season with a losing record. There's also Seattle getting its revenge after the referees screwed them over in 2005(Sorry, Steeler fans!), as well as the biggest sports market in the country going ape shit for two straight weeks(and maybe even more if Carmelo Anthony goes to the Knicks or Nets somewhere in that timeframe). Sanchez gets to do his best Ben Roethlisberger impression and go from AFC Championship in his rookie year and Super Bowl in his second(and maybe even a sexual assault in his postgame), and Darrelle Revis gets to babysit Antonio Cromartie's 8 kids while trying to find something to keep him entertained during his defense of Mike Williams. How can you not root for this? Oh, because of the potential words "Super Bowl winning QB Charlie Whitehurst", huh?

5. Jets-Falcons: Obviously, all the Jets' reasons from the last paragraph are in play here as well. The media circus behind this Jets team would be phenomonal, and you know we'll get at least two or three good Rex Ryan quotes during the interviews leading up to the big game. LaDainian Tomlinson gets to return home to Texas, much like Jerome Bettis did in Detroit in '05, and possibly end his career with a ring(though I don't think this is the end for LT). A couple storybook endings for Jason Taylor and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best people the sports world has seen in this generation. You get a battle between two up-and-coming QBs in Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan, and the potential for Ryan to build on his "Matty Ice" legacy with a 4th quarter drive. There's Jets team officials trying to both keep Braylon Edwards off the bottle and Antonio Cromartie from knocking up any Dallas cheerleaders. A "student vs. teacher" plotline with Michael Turner against L.T, the inevitable deflection of questions about the Jets' sexual harrassment lawsuit as well as Michelle Ryan questions, Telemundo getting excited about possibly the first Latin Super Bowl-winning QB, "Rowdy" Roddy White vs. Revis Island, and of course, Rex Ryan soundbites(Yup, so good, it had to be mentioned twice!).

4. Steelers-Eagles: Only for the sole purpose that, when this one is over, the man hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will either be a man twice accused of sexual assault who will be winning his third ring in seven years or a man who spent nearly two years in prison for bankrolling a dogfighting ring. Maybe it's not "exciting" from a football standpoint, although both offenses are good enough to keep it from being a snoozefest, but from a storyline standpoint alone, it's a matchup that will make Roger Goodell sweat and reporters salivate on Media Day.

3. Ravens-Falcons: It's the age-old showdown of a great defense against a great offense. It's a matchup between the two marquee QBs of the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. It's the potential last hurrah for two sure-fire Hall of Famers(Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez) and another possible Canton resident(Ed Reed), and maybe even a last goodbye for Derrick Mason. It's a rematch of perhaps the only entertaining Thursday night game all season and a game that ended with some very suspect officiating at the end. It's a chance for John Harbaugh to steal a little of the spotlight from his San Fran-bound brother, and it's a chance for two cities(one that had its team stolen from them in the middle of the night, the other a team that lost the biggest star the team has ever had to dogfighting) to finally stand on top of the world.

2. Packers-Patriots: A rematch of the two's hotly-contested battle a few weeks ago, this time with Aaron Rodgers(hopefully) filling in for Matt Flynn(it's also a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl, the last one the Packers won, but that may be too dated to matter that much). It's a showdown between two of the league's best QBs and a shot to finally step out of the shadow of Brett Favre for Rodgers. It's arguably the league's smartest coach and most meticulous gameplanner against argaubly one of the game's dumbest coaches and worst crunchtime coaches. It will be a nice cherry on top of a battered sundae for the Packers or yet another notch on the belt of the great Tom Brady.

1. Saints-Patriots: Brees! Brady! That should pretty much say it all. Incase it doesn't, how about this: Reggie Bush doing his best Desmond Howard impression, reporters trying to get a halfway decent quote from Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, endless jokes about Brady's hair, Brees replacing Peyton Manning as Brady's biggest competition for immortality, Brees also getting a shot to play "Legend Killer" for another great QB in back-to-back years, another reason for a huge New Orleans party, Mark Wahlberg vs. Harry Connick Jr., one more week of yelling "Lawfirm!" at BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one more week of yelling "Ray J's Sloppy Seconds!" at Reggie Bush......oh, and it's Brady vs. Brees....and it really doesn't get much better than that.

The Pick: Patriots over Saints - I had Ravens over Packers in the preseason and, as much as I would like to stick to my guns here, both of those teams commit way too many dumb penalties and have too many glaring weaknesses to be relied upon. I do think the Ravens have the best shot at beating New England, but it's hard to bet against this Pats team right now. As for New Orleans, the only team with a legitmate shot at beating them in the NFC is Philly and there's a puncher's chance that the Eagles don't make it out of the first round. I have no faith in Atlanta....not enough convincing wins against tough opponents, not enough experience in the playoffs and, certianly, not enough defense. As good as Matt Ryan has been, he's not winning a shootout with Drew Brees in the playoffs. I like New England over New Orleans because the Patriots can run the ball better and Brady is less likely to make big mistakes than Brees is. As much as I'd like to see the Jets and my Packers here, I think we're looking at another parade in Beantown and another spring of annoying Pats bandwagon fans going nuts. Sorry, America.