Before I get into that, though, some post-regular season awards.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers - Andy Dalton is going to grab a few votes because he's actually still playing while Cam was making vacation plans for January months ago. However, if Newton and Dalton switch teams, which team benefits more? I'm saying Cincinnati does. Look, I'm not knocking Dalton at all. He had to make the same transition Newton did as a rookie who had to learn an offense with a shortened training camp. That being said, your only case for Dalton is the team's success, which is as much because of fellow rookie A.J. Green as it is "The Red Rifle". Newton's numbers, though, make this a no-brainer. 4,051 yards passing, 701 yards rushing, 21 passing TDs, NFL-record 14 rushing TDs. Newton finished with more yards than last year's NFC rushing champion Ahmad Bradshaw and scored more touchdowns on the ground than anyone not named LeSean McCoy. Dalton might have helped make the Bengals a playoff team but Cam Newton makes the Panthers very scary for years to come.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers - A lot of good candidates this year. Patrick Peterson was huge for Arizona but his best moments came more in the return game than on defense. Von Miller looked like he had this award wrapped up and then he injured his hand and the air came out of the tires. If anything, the Broncos' lack of punch with Miller hurt(no pun intended) could actually help Miller's case more than hurt it. Still, it's hard to argue the impact of Aldon Smith on what might be the league's best defense. 14 sacks and a safety are pretty impressive numbers and Smith, unlike Miller, has a signature game to hang his hat on. With Pro Bowl ILB Patrick Willis on the sidelines, Smith stepped up on national television and reeked havoc on Pittsburgh to the tune of 2.5 sacks and provided constant pressure on Big Ben. It was one of four multi-sack games for Smith. Miller? Only one, and he didn't register a sack the final three weeks of the season, which allowed Smith to overtake. Either way, this was a good year for rookies on defense.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers - Not that my opinion or ability to predict division standings in the preseason(or lack thereof) mean anything, but I had San Francisco finishing third in the NFC West in my preseason preview and, at the time, I thought that was generous. Nobody, and I mean, NOBODY, saw Harbaugh rallying this group together with an abbreviated training camp, forming the league's best defense, making Alex Smith somewhat respectable at QB and combining all those components to create the NFC's #2 seed.
It's hard to give Harbaugh too much credit as he's an offensive-minded coach whose team is led primarily by its defense and whose offense is, at best, pedestrian. John Fox might get some love here, too, for resurrecting a Broncos team that was 3-13 last year and making them a division champion. What knocks Fox down a peg to me is that the fact that he seemed begrudgingly happy over the team's success when Tim Tebow took over as the team's starting QB. The entire 2011 Broncos season under Touchdown Jesus was Fox and John Elway trying their hardest not to grit their teeth over not being able to replace Tebow in the offseason and pretending to put their arm around their franchise savior with half-hearted kudos and back-handed compliments. Harbaugh, meanwhile, never looked ashamed that he was winning the West with one of the all-time biggest Draft busts as his QB and has the Niners looking like the closest thing to the 2000 Ravens that we've seen in 11 years.
Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens - Gabe texted me a couple weeks ago giving me props for being one of the only people to see the breakout of Jason Pierre-Paul coming(something I mentioned in a preseason preview two years ago). JPP deserves some Defensive MVP love and there's a chance he steals this award from T-Sizzle with his recent surge the last month or so. 86 tackles, 16.5 sacks and a safety are damn good numbers for a defensive end and those numbers dwarf those of Suggs for the most part.
Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens - Gabe texted me a couple weeks ago giving me props for being one of the only people to see the breakout of Jason Pierre-Paul coming(something I mentioned in a preseason preview two years ago). JPP deserves some Defensive MVP love and there's a chance he steals this award from T-Sizzle with his recent surge the last month or so. 86 tackles, 16.5 sacks and a safety are damn good numbers for a defensive end and those numbers dwarf those of Suggs for the most part.
My reasoning for Suggs over Paul is two-fold: One, while his numbers aren't as great as JPP's, Suggs' numbers are still excellent: 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 2 INTs and 7 forced fumbles. Both men shined against heated division rivals. Pierre-Paul dominated both games against the Cowboys en route to helping seal an NFC East title for the Giants while Suggs laid a whooping on Pittsburgh in Week 1 with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles to set the tone for what would be an AFC North-winning campaign for the Ravens. Secondly, while Suggs has tons of quality talent around him on that Ravens D, Baltimore is lacking in the pass-rushing department beyond T-Sizzle. JPP has Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka(even if all three were hurt at some point in the year). I'm not taking anything away from JPP, but it's much easier to dominate when opposing offenses have guys everywhere to look out for. Offenses facing the Ravens knew the pass rush lived and died with Terrell Suggs....and he still made them pay every week.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - A bit of a spoiler here, I suppose, for my pick for MVP as Brees' selection here pretty much gives away my MVP pick(though, if you read my take on this matter a week ago, you should have already known my choice to begin with). The Brees-Rodgers debate is something that can for hours, maybe even days. You want to say Matt Flynn's breakout game last week against Detroit hurts A-Rod in terms of the "value" discussion for MVP? I won't kill you for it. When Flynn is starting elsewhere, we'll know whether he was a product of the system or not, but to ask "Well, if Matt Flynn started for Green Bay all season and Chase Daniel started all season for the Saints, what would their records be?" is a question that is impossible to answer and should have no bearing when comparing the two guys who did actually start for the Saints and Packers all season(or in Rodgers' case, almost all season). Brees' only advantage over Rodgers is in pure numbers. Rodgers has the better team record. Rodgers beat Brees head-to-head.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - A bit of a spoiler here, I suppose, for my pick for MVP as Brees' selection here pretty much gives away my MVP pick(though, if you read my take on this matter a week ago, you should have already known my choice to begin with). The Brees-Rodgers debate is something that can for hours, maybe even days. You want to say Matt Flynn's breakout game last week against Detroit hurts A-Rod in terms of the "value" discussion for MVP? I won't kill you for it. When Flynn is starting elsewhere, we'll know whether he was a product of the system or not, but to ask "Well, if Matt Flynn started for Green Bay all season and Chase Daniel started all season for the Saints, what would their records be?" is a question that is impossible to answer and should have no bearing when comparing the two guys who did actually start for the Saints and Packers all season(or in Rodgers' case, almost all season). Brees' only advantage over Rodgers is in pure numbers. Rodgers has the better team record. Rodgers beat Brees head-to-head.
That being said, Brees deserves his just due and winning this award doesn't shortchange everything Brees accomplished. Nearly 5,500 yards and 46 TD's are amazing numbers and Brees' shattering of Dan Marino's passing record is an achievement I don't believe any QB going forward will be able to take from him. He deserves his time in the sun. He just doesn't deserve MVP.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers - Week 17 definitely hurt Rodgers' case, but let's not act like people weren't looking for a reason to give the MVP to Brees a week prior when he broke the passing yards record. Rodgers had nothing to play for in Week 17 so he didn't. Brees didn't have anything left to play for in the 4th quarter of the Falcons game(except the record) and damn sure how nothing left to prove in the second half against the Panthers, but Sean Payton had him in there anyway. It's hard to give credit to such a blatant attempt to put a guy over. Aaron Rodgers was so incredibly consistent week-after-week that it became boring to talk about. We ran out of hyperbole. We ran out of reasons to compare his season to Brady's 2007 or find ways to put him over Brett Favre, so we just stopped. Meanwhile, Drew Brees was unleashing an assault on the record books and he became the new fun thing to talk about. In a world where what's "trending" changes within minutes, some decided to switch from Rodgers to Brees.
And I'm not saying MVP talk for Brees is unwarranted, just that, short of a few records, there's nothing Brees accomplished this season that Rodgers hadn't as well. 14-1 as a starter, nearly 4,700 yards passing, a 45-6 TD-to-INT ratio(in an offense that barely ever runs the ball, no less) and an NFL-record 122.5 QB rating are still astonishing numbers, even if they aren't as gaudy as Brees' in some aspects. As I said a week ago, Rodgers vs. Brees is something that will only be cleared up in a rematch, if it happens, this season. You wish we could suspend the MVP til then, but we can't. For this season, Aaron Rodgers played this season like a maestro leading an orchestra. Whether he's better than Drew Brees is a case Rodgers already made once this season, but he'll be more than glad to refresh your memory in a couple weeks.
And, now......some playoff thoughts.
Sneakiest Potental First Round Upset: Broncos over Steelers - Hold the hate, Pittsburgh. Let me explain myself here.
1. No Rashard Mendenhall. No Ryan Clark. No Maurkice Pouncey. Big Ben is, surprise surprise, banged up with yet another injury he's going to try to play through. A swiss-cheese Steelers offensive line is going up against a Broncos pass rush with a two-headed monster in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Champ Bailey is going to put the clamps on Mike Wallace and it's in Denver, with thousands of psycho Bronco fans in attendance for their first home playoff game in years.
2. Tim Tebow might not be much of a QB, but he finds ways to win and John Fox is a playoff-tested head coach. He's not going to let Tebow blow this game. With no running game and potentially no deep attack for the Steelers, this game could very well be closer than you think. You know who thrives in close games? Tim Tebow.
3. Keep in mind that, this time last year, nobody gave the Seattle Seahawks a chance to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Saints at home in the first round, and we saw how that ended. I'm not saying Denver's going to win this one, but history has shown that victories this time of year are hardly a certainty(Trust me, as someone who thought Green Bay was going to throttle the Giants in 2007). If you don't have your doubts about the Steelers on Sunday, then you're either kidding yourself or have more confidence than most.
Sleeper Team That Can Make A Real Run: New York Giants - NYG is a bit of a wild card. On the one hand, they possess the league's best pass rush in a playoffs that will see them potentially face four of the best passing offenses in the NFL if things fall that way(Atlanta in Round 1, followed by potentially Green Bay, New Orleans and New England). They can sling the ball with anybody(as they proved with their nailbiting loss to Green Bay a month ago), and they have the experience of entering the playoffs under the radar(2007.....when they went from 6 seed to Super Bowl champions). On the other, they tend to shit the bed every now and then(swept by the lowly Redskins, losing to a Vince Young-led Eagles team, getting worked by Seattle early in the year) and, despite having a talented duo in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, Big Blue struggles running the ball(league worst rushing offense). The Giants could emulate their run in 2007......or their season could come to screeching halt against Atlanta this weekend.
Biggest Playoff X-Factor: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens - While we're on the subject of the 2007 Giants, I compared Flacco to Eli Manning prior to his '07 playoff run. Same emotionless body language. Same tendency to hold the ball too long. Same boneheaded decision making. Like Manning, Flacco holds the keys to a legit Super Bowl contender. Baltimore had Pittsburgh on the ropes last year in the Divisional Round before the wheels came off in the second half. If Baltimore ends up pulling that one out, who knows how that 2010 season ends? Do the Ravens top the Jets? Does Rex Ryan's Super Bowl prediction come true or does he fail and Baltimore makes it? Does Aaron Rodgers carve up the Ravens like he did the Steelers? We'll never know. Here's what we do know: The window on Baltimore's standing as Super Bowl contenders is rapidly closing. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, sure-fire Hall of Famers on their last legs, aren't going to be around much longer to rally the troops and, for as good as Ray Rice has been this season, the offense needs Flacco to step up to keep defenses on their toes. The Ravens have shown this year that have what it takes to topple the Steelers(albeit in the regular season) but for them to make a run, Flacco needs to avoid the critical mistakes that have plagued in games like the ones against Jacksonville and San Diego. If Flacco takes the next step like Manning in '07, you can pencil Baltimore in to their first Super Bowl since 2000.
2012 NFL Playoffs' Unsung Hero(The David Tyree Award): Darren Sproles, RB, Saints - A couple of things you might not have known about Sproles' 2011 season: He nearly doubled the best rushing total of his career with 603 yards(on only 87 carries, for an average of 6.9 a carry). He caught 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 TD's in an offense that loves to spread it around. That's a little over 1,300 yards of offense and we haven't even gotten into his production in the return game(though it should be mentioned he had one punt return of 40+ yards and a TD as well as two 40+ yard kickoff returns this season). With Mark Ingram out and Pierre Thomas being, well, Pierre Thomas, Sproles is the Saints' best weapon on the ground and his receiving and return numbers proves he can be dangerous from nearly anywhere. He's this generation's Dave Meggett, a diminutive back who doesn't have every-down size but can give you every-down production and is a threat to take it the distance no matter how he touches the ball. Teams are going to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to game plan Drew Brees or Marque Colston or Jimmy Graham. The guy they need to worry about is the 5'6 midget with the lightning fast feet.
Legit Story We Are Way Too Worried About: Detroit's Week 17 loss to Green Bay - A couple years ago, Green Bay walked into Arizona on the final weekend of the regular season and laid an ass whooping on the Cardinals. A week later, the two teams met in the Wild Card round and the Packers had to rally back from a 21-0 deficit to lose a heartbreaker in overtime to the eventual NFC champions. We learned two things from Detroit's loss last week: Their defense gives up a ton of yards and points....and their offense can go score-for-score with anyone. For as bad as that shootout against Matt Flynn and company was Motown's defense, it should be the Lions only lost by four and had a chance to win on the final drive before Sam Shields came up with the game-clinching pick. Who's to say the ball can't bounce in Detroit's favor against New Orleans? There aren't many defenses, if there are any, that can keep Calvin Johnson in check and, while the numbers might tell a different story, a defense led by Ndomukong Suh is still pretty damn scary. The Lions have as much young talent as anybody and, lest we forget, this team was one of the last two undefeated teams standing before losing to Chicago in Week 10. Did the wheels come off the bandwagon in Motor City or did Detroit use last week's loss as a chance to regroup and come out firing when the real season starts? Time will tell.
Legit Story We Are NOT Worried Enough About: Bill O'Brien taking the Penn St head coaching job - There are two differing precedents here we could use for New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's decision to take the Penn State job before the playoffs start and its effect it will have on the team. There's the precedent from a few years back when then-Patriot coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis found head coaching jobs while still working for New England during their Super Bowl run(Weis with Notre Dame, Crennel with the Browns). Those hirings didn't distract the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl and both men ended up getting a classy sendoff as the team hoisted the Lombardi trophy. Then, there was Weis, in his return to the NFL as the OC of the Kansas City Chiefs, taking the OC job with the University of Florida prior to the Chiefs facing the Ravens in Round 1. The Chiefs looked anemic on offense, Weis and Todd Haley butted heads at halftime and Weis left the team on unpleasant terms. We won't know which way this new scenario will play out but it seems ridiculous to think that it can't end like Weis' did in Kansas City last year. O'Brien is a fiery guy(as we saw with his shouting match with Tom Brady earlier this season) and he's just agreed to take a job at one of the most infamous schools in college football history, replacing the greatest college football coach of all-time, a year after a scandal that rocked the entire country all season. You don't think Billy O might be a little preoccupied right now?
And last, but certainly, not least.......the obligatory Super Bowl prediction.
Super Bowl 46: Ravens 27, Saints 24 - I had Saints-Patriots in the preseason and, truth be told, I was more than ready to stick with that.......until I wrote the previous paragraph. I have a hard time convincing myself this O'Brien thing won't be a distraction and, even if it's not, this Patriots defense is horrible. In fact, it may be the worst of the 12 playoff teams and that includes a Lions squad that just gave up 45 points to the Packers B team. The Ravens have proven they aren't scared of Pittsburgh and I'd be more confident in the Steelers getting revenge if they didn't have to do it in Baltimore and if they weren't so beat up. As for the Saints, I think Drew Brees gets the best of Aaron Rodgers this time around in the NFC Championship as sort of a "Screw you" to MVP voters. I have zero confidence in this Packers defense and I think there is a more than decent chance they could be one and done if they cross paths with the Giants again in Round 2. Saints-Ravens pits the league's statistically-best QB against the AFC's best defense and, as we've seen time and time again, defense wins championships.
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