If Drew Brees vs. Aaron Rodgers for the 2011 NFL MVP were a prizefight, it would go a little something like this: Rodgers would knock down Brees in the first, spend the next few rounds outboxing Brees with precision punching and uncanny efficiency before Brees would roar back to steal the remaining rounds.
Who would win when the final bell rang and we went to the cards would depend on how you scored each round. That's what we're dealing with as voters go to the mattresses with a decision to make between the last two Super Bowl MVPs. There are questions every voter has to ask themselves. How much stock do you put in Rodgers beating Brees in Week 1? Do you care more about individual stats or wins? Does Matt Flynn's record-setting performance yesterday somehow hurt Rodgers' candidacy?
There are a number of factors to consider. In one corner, you have a man that shattered a nearly 25-year old record in Dan Marino's single-season passing mark as well as breaking Peyton Manning's single-season completion record while completing nearly 72% of his passes and throwing for 46 TD. In the other corner is a defending Super Bowl MVP who has lost all of one game all season and set a record of his own this year: the single season record for QB rating. Brees has nearly 1,000 more yards than Rodgers. Rodgers has 8 less interceptions than Brees. He's also thrown 155 less passes than Brees. Rodgers is 14-1 as a starter. Brees? 13-3. Brees had five multi-INT games this season. Rodgers had zero. Brees lost to lowly St. Louis(and backup A.J. Feeley), Rodgers to slightly-less mediocre Kansas City(on a day where they had fired their coach in the middle of the week and were starting their third string QB). Brees spent the final game of the regular season dismantling Carolina. Rodgers spent it in a ballcap while his backup set single-game franchise records in passing yards and TD's against playoff-bound Detroit.
It's pretty much a toss-up. How can you argue one over the other? Which is why I think we're headed for the first NFL co-MVPs since 2003 when Steve McNair and Peyton Manning split the award. That, to me, would be fitting.....and a tragedy. Eventhough both men deserve the honor of both being called MVP and both men played this NFL season with the execution of decorated sniper, there needs to be one winner. Obviously, as a Packer fan, my vote goes to Rodgers and, it will tough to watch Brees take the consolation prize(Offensive Player of the Year) yet again after being edged out by Manning just a couple years ago.
However, the case for Rodgers is pretty extensive. He's lost once dating back to last Christmas(I know, you can't count last season when considering this year's achievements, but it's worth noting). With an undefeated season still on the line, Rodgers marched the Packers downfield in under a minute to set up the game-winning field goal against the eventual NFC East champion New York Giants(Brees, meanwhile, led the Saints down the field against the Packers for what would have been the game-winning final drive but got DENIED when the Pack stuffed Mark Ingram on the one-yard line in the season opener). He's thrown just six interceptions in an offense that has gotten nothing from the running game, has had to constantly shuffle its offensive line due to injury. With his three starting offensive tackles out, Rodgers lit up a very good Bears defense in what would be his final regular season performance to the tune of 289 yards and five TD's while not taking a sack. He had almost half as many rushing yards this season(257) as his leading rusher(James Starks, 578) and one less rushing TD than the team's leader(fullback John Kuhn, with 4). As great as Brees' numbers are, Rodgers' stat line of 4,643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INT's with a 68.3 completion percentage and a 122.5 passer rating isn't exactly chump change.
Numbers, however, is going to be Brees' biggest case(if not his only case). A lot is going to be made out of Brees breaking Marino's single-season passing yards record.....until you realize that Tom Brady did it, too, this season. In fact, prior to this season, Marino was the only QB in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards. There were three 5,000 yard QB's in this year alone(Brees, Brady and Matt Stafford). It's hard to put stock in gaudy numbers when a guy like Cam Newton can come into his rookie season with barely any training camp and throw for 4,000 yards. Defense was at a premium in 2011 and, if you don't believe me, feel free to name me at least five good defenses this year. Hell, the Packers are 15-1 with a defense that was dead last in total yards and passing yards allowed. I can point to a couple crappy Brees games this year(Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay, Week 8 vs. St. Louis....both losses....to teams that were a combined 6-26). I can think of just one for Rodgers(the lone loss to Kansas City, and even then Rodgers didn't turn the ball over. Brees, on other hand, five INT's in those two aforementioned losses). The reason behind Brees' candidacy is two-fold: 1. He's put on a show late while Rodgers, albeit superb, has been on cruise control because he's maintained a consistent level of excellence and Brees' mastery has managed to stay more current in people's minds(especially since he broke Marino's record two weeks ago on national television as well as played in Week 17 while Rodgers rested). 2. Brees is one of the league's most likable guys. That's not to say Rodgers is an asshole but 10-20 years from now coaches, players and parents will point to Brees' postgame speech after trouncing Atlanta and breaking Marino's record as the textbook example of teamwork and selfless behavior even if it came in a game where Brees and company rubbed it in by trying for the record up 22 in the 4th quarter. That last sentence, and I realize this is nitpicking, is what sticks in my craw a little in terms of picking Brees over Rodgers. Morning radio programs and debate shows have blasted athletes for years for running up scores and padding individual stats......so how did Brees get a pass from the mainstream media(granted, not a complete pass, as there were some who were up in arms....but those were mainly Atlanta-based scribes). If Terrell Owens started calling for the ball up 21 in the fourth quarter so he could break Jerry Rice's single-season recieving record, would we be as lenient on T.O. as we've been on Brees? It's a pointless debate, sure, but it's something to consider.
If I had my way, the MVP would reflect the postseason as well and the eventual rematch between Rodgers and Brees in the NFC Championship would not only have Super Bowl ramifications but would be a winner-takes-all scenario for the MVP as well. Rodgers gets the edge from me because I'm a biased Packers fan who watched his favorite player play defenses like a fiddle for 15 weeks. Rodgers' 2011 season was one of the greatest QB seasons in NFL history when you consider efficiency, circumstance and pure numbers. Brees' numbers are impressive as well and he won't be forgotten for re-writing the record books, but to give Brees the award because his coaches allowed him to put on an offensive onslaught the last few weeks in an attempt to both let Brees take a sledgehammer to long-standing records and make a last minute push for MVP would be unfortunate. To go back to the boxing comparison, it would be like scoring 10-9 rounds for Brees because he threw flurries of punches in the closing seconds of each round. Brees vs. Rodgers is the Hagler-Leonard of MVP races. It's a debate we will have long after the dust settles on this season. However, like Hagler-Leonard, there can be only one winner. Two men can't BOTH be the most valuable. It's impossible for me to not side with my guy, no matter how objective I've tried to be in the past month or so and no matter how much respect I have a guy like Drew Brees. It's a tough call to make but it's one that shouldn't be made straddling a fence.
One season. One MVP.
That's how it's supposed to be.
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