In This Corner.....

"To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" - Ric Flair

Tomorrow kicks off the NFL postseason, and this year's tournament has a little something for everybody. We've got a couple lovable underdogs(Kansas City, Seattle), some old school, blue collar smashmouth teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago), a few that like to air it out(Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, New England), a feel-good comeback story(Philadelphia) and even a reality TV star(New York).

Today, we're going to break down the teams to beat in their respective conferences, who has the best chance of knocking them off, and who are this year's dark horses, X-Factors and potential breakout stars. In the process, there will be plenty of pop culture boxing and wrestling references that will inevitably get me made fun of by Gabe.

Paper Champion(the conference favorite): New England Patriots - The Patriots have reverted back to handling business like they did in the pre-Randy Moss years, relying on chemistry and rhythm rather than loading up on the big play downfield. Go-routes have been traded in for quick slants, bubble screens and the occasional hand-off or two. New England managed to finally find an adequate running game via "The Lawfirm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis(1,008 yards rushing, 13 TDs). The effectiveness of Ellis on the ground has kept defenses from focusing on Tom Brady, which has led to Brady not turning the ball over in two months. Defensively, the Patriots' bend-but-don't-break defense is what makes this team more Piston Honda than Mr. Dream(or Mike Tyson, for those who didn't play the original Punch-Out). The team doesn't have a pass rusher with more than 5 sacks(OLB Tully Banta-Cain) and, outside of rookie CB Devin McCourtey's 7 picks, no other player has more than 3 interceptions. That's led to the Pats being near the bottom in pass defense(30th) and total yardage allowed(25th), and is the chief reason why this Patriots team may not steamroll through the playoffs like many are assuming.

The Contender(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ): Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are the last team to intercept Brady, picking him off twice in their 23-20 OT loss to New England back on Oct. 17th. The Ravens also possess the ability to strike at New England's Achilles' heel, which is pounding the ball inside with the run game as well as be physical and aggressive enough on defense to smack Brady in the mouth. That was the formula Baltimore used to trounce the Patriots in Foxboro last year and this year's version of the Ravens now have a passing game to complement The Ray Rice Show. You could throw the Pittsburgh Steelers in the mix here, too, but only if DE Aaron Smith manages to come back from a torn triceps that kept him out most of the season(which the chances of that are slim) as well as if S Troy Polamalu can stay healthy(also no guarantee).

Little Mac Award:(team with an outside shot becoming champion): New York Jets - The Jets spent the offseason in "win now" mode, uniting every title-hungry veteran in the Meadowlands as if they were filming an NFL version of "The Expendables". Gang Green has been up and down all year, faced with its own inconsistency(the terrible second half play of QB Mark Sanchez and the disappearance of LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch, for starters) as well as a myriad of distractions(Braylon Edwards' DUI, the filming of "Hard Knocks", the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger fiasco, Michelle Ryan's foot fetish videos), and that has tempered some of the early season Super Bowl hype. That may work in the Jets' favor. 11-5 teams ranked in the top 5 in nearly every defensive category with a QB that's playoff seasoned and a run game that ranks among the top in the league can be a scary team to face(especially in the cold). The X-Factor for New York will be Tomlinson. Left for dead by the San Diego Chargers after years of coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl, LT ran with a vengeance early in the season and then tapered off in the last couple of months(less than 60 yards rushing every game since mid-October). Time will tell whether it's because Rex Ryan was saving his aging lead back for the playoffs or it's a further sign of decline for the future Hall of Famer. Regardless, an L.T./Shonn Greene combination as well as Sanchez finally finding a game breaker in former Steeler WR Santonio Holmes(another guy with playoff seasoning) may give the Jets the type of balance that makes them a tough matchup these next few weeks(especially against their opening round opponent, Indianapolis, which is soft against the run). On defense, they haven't missed NT Kris Jenkins much, as the team finished the regular season third in run defense. OLBs Jason Taylor, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas provided a fierce pass rush, with all three notching over 5 sacks a piece(Taylor leading the way with 6), although the secondary hasn't been able to take full advantage of the pressure the front seven has provided(a surprisingly low 12 team INTs).


Mickey Ward Award(player with the most to prove): Ravens QB Joe Flacco - This was supposed to be "The Year of Jersey Joe". With wide receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Donte Stallworth added to an arsenal that already featured fellow wideout Derrick Mason and versatile RB Ray Rice, Flacco was supposed to step up into the elite ranks of signal callers. Flacco's numbers were respectable(62% completion percentage, nearly 3,700 yards passing, 25 TDs, 10 INTs) but the offensive line has failed him at times(40 sacks allowed). We all know no team can succeed in January without at least competent QB play(even though the Ravens last title came with Trent Dilfer leading them), so it goes without saying that the Ravens are screwed if Flacco isn't ready for primetime. Still, the case can be made that no QB in the AFC has as many high-profile weapons as Flacco does and, with a defense littered with stars whose championship window is closing quickly(MLB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed), the Ravens' fate lies in the hands of their 6'6 238-pound gunslinger.


Hasim Rahman Award(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Eric Berry, S, Chiefs - It's hard to say a rookie heralded as "the next Ed Reed" can possibly fly under the radar and become an overnight celebrity(especially after a 92-tackle, 2 sack, 1 forced fumble, 4-INT rookie campaign), but Berry has the skills to make his mark in these playoffs. Normally, breakout stars are found on the offensive side of the ball(as we saw with Pierre Garcon and Shonn Greene last year), but fantasy football has emerged to the point where any run-of-the-mill offensive playmaker can become a household name with a breakout game(which is why this spot wasn't given to Patriots TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). The Chiefs are a team with no real notable wins, which is why many have written them off as "one and done" once they host Baltimore on Sunday. However, since Baltimore's defense will stifle the Chiefs' underrated offense for most of the night in Arrowhead, Kansas City's best shot at an upset will be to match the Ravens' efforts defensively. Given how important safety play has become in the NFL, that means we're looking at a potentially big game for Berry.

Pacquaio-Mayweather Award(conference's most anticipated matchup): Colts at Patriots - As much as I hate the slurpfest that these New England-Indianapolis matchups end up becoming in the pregame hype leading up to kickoff, there's no denying that Brady vs. Manning is this generation's Marino vs. Montana(or Aikman vs. Young or Marino vs. Elway, whichever you choose).

The Brady-Manning showdowns almost always live up to the hype, with this year's regular season clash being no exception. The Colts attempted to come back from a double-digit deficit but a Peyton Manning interception on the potential game-winning drive gave New England the win. With New England and Indianapolis hardly possessing lights out defenses, a potential rematch between the two will no doubt be another shootout and, while matchups against the Jets, Steelers or Ravens would be entertaining, no team is better at playing the foil to the Patriots than Manning's Colts.

TV Champion(The conference favorite): Atlanta Falcons - They trot out the NFC's most balanced attack combined with being nearly untouchable at home. If The Carolinas are "Flair Country, the A-T-L is "Matty Ice Land". Matt Ryan, in his third year, is a long playoff run away from stepping into the next tier of franchise QBs. Helping him along the way will be bruising running back Michael "The Burner" Turner and Ryan's pass-catching tag team partner Roddy White. The Falcons' balance on offense is their calling card. Their suspect defense, however, is what makes them a shaky favorite. Despite being 5th in points allowed, the are 22nd against the pass, and 16th in total yards. That's a bit troubling in a conference that will see them face pass-heavy teams like Philly, Green Bay or New Orleans. Luckily, the Falcons get to play host in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, where the team has lost three times in head coach Mike Smith's three years and where Ryan has lost just twice as a starter. What goes against the Falcons, other than their leaky pass D, is their relative inexperience. Ryan made the playoffs a couple years ago as a rookie, but still doesn't have a playoff W. The Falcons also don't have a convincing win against a legit contender this season. Atlanta got some Charles Robinson-type poor officiating to help them beat Baltimore a couple months ago, and they edged out New Orleans by way of a shanked Garrett Hartley chip shot in OT as well as sneaking out a win against Green Bay thanks to a bad facemask penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. Of the top seeds in these playoffs, the Falcons look like the sketchiest, but that's why we play the games.


The Legend Killer(team with the best chance of knocking off the champ) : New Orleans Saints - As I said earlier, they came thisclose to sweeping Atlanta and they proved their mettle by going into the Georgia Dome two weeks ago and pulling out a W on national television. The Saints have the NFC's best coach(Sean Payton) and best QB(Drew Brees) and, perhaps the biggest factor, they've been here before. Brees is one of two QBs(Mike Vick being the other) with a playoff win to his name in the NFC and, even though rookie QBs have made big playoff runs in years past, experience goes a long way in the playoffs, especially during crunch time. Defensively, unlike their NFC South rival, the Saints are stout against the pass(but not so much against the run) and they have the easiest of the four Wild Card matchups by drawing a putrid Seahawks team that they crushed in Week 11(34-19 in New Orleans). What will hurt the Saints the most is their lack of a run game. RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas are done for the postseason, meaning the weight now falls squarely on former poster child Reggie Bush to provide some production on the ground. Bush's biggest plays of his pro career have come in the postseason(his electrifying run against Chicago a few years ago and last year's dominance of the Cardinals). If Bush can be even somewhat close to USC Reggie Bush, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC...hands down.

The Third Man(team with an outside shot of making a surprise run): Green Bay Packers - Call me a homer, but history tends to reflect positively on teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Green Bay possesses the 2nd best overall defense(statistically, at least) and the 10th best scoring offense. They are 5th in total yards allowed and pass defense, 9th in total yards, and 5th in passing. Obviously, what holds Green Bay back is both the lack of a run game and their occasional struggles with stopping the run. Since Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, the team has tried everything short of resuscitating Edgar Bennett to get something going on the ground. Brandon Jackson, the man who was initially drafted to be the Packers' lead back, finished with a little over 700 yards rushing and even his relatively decent games have been few and far between. The Packers' offense still lives and dies through Aaron Rodgers, who put up yet another stellar season(65.7% completion percentage, 3,922 yards passing, 28 TDs and 11 INTs) even despite falling victim to two concussions. The key is keeping Rodgers' upright. The Packers' offensive line, the team's biggest weakness at this point last year, cut down its sacks allowed from 51 last year to 38 this year but still aren't exactly a brick wall when it comes to defending a pass rush. If Rodgers gets time to throw, though, look out. Very few teams in the NFC(or even the NFL) can match offenses with the Packers, especially with the way the defense has played of late. Led by a reigning Defensive Player of the Year(CB Charles Woodson) and the frontrunner for this year's DPOY award(LB Clay Matthews), the Packers have put opposing offenses on lockdown. The road to Dallas will be rough, however. Although they beat Philadelphia at The Linc in Week 1, the win came when the Packers were much healthier than they are now and with Mike Vick on the bench for the first half. If they can somehow repeat their opening week performance, they will then have to go into Atlanta where they lost a close one to the Falcons a couple months ago. If they can survive that, they'll either travel to Chicago for a third showdown with the Bears(who they lost to at Soldier Field earlier in the season) or to NOLA to face the defending champs. The Packers eeked into the playoffs, despite a multitude of key injuries, but if they can stay away from dumb penalties and find a way to pull out wins in close games(two HUGE ifs), this team will be right where many had them in the preseason: The Super Bowl. (Side Note: For those who don't get the "Third Man" reference, take a look at this. P.S. When it comes to announcing, Tony Schiavone makes Jon Gruden look like Vin Scully.)

Most In Need To Get "Over"(Player with the most to prove): Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - As great as this storybook season has been for Mike Vick(62.8% completion, 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing, 30 total TDs, 6 INTs) the best chapter has yet to be written. Vick needs a postseason that mirrors the first half of his regular season to end one of the greatest comebacks in this sport's history. Vick went from the league's most notorious heel to its biggest babyface after coming off the bench for the injured Kevin Kolb and finally realizing the potential that made him a #1 pick in 2001. Finally able to dominate with both his arm and his legs, Vick has morphed into the league's most electrifying player. Still, in the past couple of weeks, Vick's old form has reared its ugly head. For a guy who is often the fastest man on the field, he still takes far too many sacks and his scrambling ability makes him prone to big hits that his smallish frame can't continue to withstand. If the Eagles are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders, everything rides on Number Seven's ability to continue to extend plays with his feet while remaining accurate with his passes. The combination of Vick's versatility and the incendiary speed of playmakers like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy make the Eagles like a more modern "Greatest Show On Turf", and with Vick's contract up at the year, a lot rides on him closing the show much like he started it.

From Jobber To Superstar(guy most likely to go from nothing to something): Mike Williams, WR, Seattle - Lost in all the glitz of the soon-to-be-a-Hollywood-blockbuster-with-Terrence-Howard-playing-the-lead-role comeback story of Mike Vick is the triumphant return of another Mike: former Lions first round bust Mike Williams. Sure, Williams didn't even have the best season of guys sharing the same name(Tampa's Mike Williams had a better year on a far better team that is far more deserving of a playoff spot than these Seahawks), but he's arguably the best player on the worst team in these playoffs and since we're hours away from forgetting anything sports-related the city of Seattle will have to offer between now and baseball season, we might as well give the Seahawks some face time. As good as the Saints are against the pass, it's tough to really account for a receiver built like BMW("Big" Mike Williams, for you slow-witted folk). Williams runs 6'5, 235 pounds, with hands like magnets and the speed of a minivan. He's pretty much a glorified tight end, but he's going to be Matt Hasselbeck's most reliable target and there's going to be at least a play or two tomorrow where you sit up and say "Oh shit! Who the hell is that!?". The Seahawks' only hope of pulling off a 123 Kid/Razor Ramon-type upset will be if Williams can move the chains and get the loudest crowd in the NFL motivated enough to at least somewhat intimidate the defending champs. I can see BMW reeling in five or six catches and a score as the Seahawks make things interesting on the first drive.....and then proceed to get annihilated for the next 3 1/2 quarters. At least now you can say you know who Mike Williams is before you bother use Wikipedia during the commercial break.


Steamboat vs Flair Award(most anticipated matchup) Eagles at Falcons - Eventhough the NFC plays the inferior ugly stepsister to the AFC, there are some good potential matchups on the horizon. Packers-Saints would be exciting, as would Saints-Eagles and maybe even Falcons-Bears. However, in continuing with the "Comeback Story of Mike Vick" theme, this postseason can really only shape up one way: With Mike Vick trying to lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl by going into the place that he once packed to the rafters and taking on his successor. Mike Vick vs. the team that threw him away IN Georgia. You can't script it better than that. The place will be filled with deafening mixed emotions, with some glad to see Mike Vick back while others unwilling to forgive him for why he left. On top of that, it pits two of the most exciting offenses in the league against each other, on the Georgia Dome carpet, for a chance at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As much as it goes against every fiber in my being to root against my Packers, the only way I can digest a Eagles win this weekend would be if it led to Vick inevitably stepping foot into the place he once called home, staring out into the crowd he once flipped off "Stone Cold" Steve Austin-style, and putting on a show similar to his Madden-like performance against the Redskins on Monday night.

Pay-Per-View Headliners(the five, er, six best potential Super Bowl matchups):



Honorable Mention: Seahawks-Jets - Barring some kind of Disney-scripted fairy tale postseason run, this has absolutely NO SHOT at happening. However, if Seattle can pull off a Cinderella run, we get Mark Sanchez against the college coach that chastised Sanchez's decision to declare early. We get a week's worth of Rex Ryan soundbites, a chance to see LaDainian Tomlinson in the Super Bowl, the first ever Super Bowl matchup featuring a team that finished the regular season with a losing record. There's also Seattle getting its revenge after the referees screwed them over in 2005(Sorry, Steeler fans!), as well as the biggest sports market in the country going ape shit for two straight weeks(and maybe even more if Carmelo Anthony goes to the Knicks or Nets somewhere in that timeframe). Sanchez gets to do his best Ben Roethlisberger impression and go from AFC Championship in his rookie year and Super Bowl in his second(and maybe even a sexual assault in his postgame), and Darrelle Revis gets to babysit Antonio Cromartie's 8 kids while trying to find something to keep him entertained during his defense of Mike Williams. How can you not root for this? Oh, because of the potential words "Super Bowl winning QB Charlie Whitehurst", huh?

5. Jets-Falcons: Obviously, all the Jets' reasons from the last paragraph are in play here as well. The media circus behind this Jets team would be phenomonal, and you know we'll get at least two or three good Rex Ryan quotes during the interviews leading up to the big game. LaDainian Tomlinson gets to return home to Texas, much like Jerome Bettis did in Detroit in '05, and possibly end his career with a ring(though I don't think this is the end for LT). A couple storybook endings for Jason Taylor and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best people the sports world has seen in this generation. You get a battle between two up-and-coming QBs in Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan, and the potential for Ryan to build on his "Matty Ice" legacy with a 4th quarter drive. There's Jets team officials trying to both keep Braylon Edwards off the bottle and Antonio Cromartie from knocking up any Dallas cheerleaders. A "student vs. teacher" plotline with Michael Turner against L.T, the inevitable deflection of questions about the Jets' sexual harrassment lawsuit as well as Michelle Ryan questions, Telemundo getting excited about possibly the first Latin Super Bowl-winning QB, "Rowdy" Roddy White vs. Revis Island, and of course, Rex Ryan soundbites(Yup, so good, it had to be mentioned twice!).

4. Steelers-Eagles: Only for the sole purpose that, when this one is over, the man hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will either be a man twice accused of sexual assault who will be winning his third ring in seven years or a man who spent nearly two years in prison for bankrolling a dogfighting ring. Maybe it's not "exciting" from a football standpoint, although both offenses are good enough to keep it from being a snoozefest, but from a storyline standpoint alone, it's a matchup that will make Roger Goodell sweat and reporters salivate on Media Day.

3. Ravens-Falcons: It's the age-old showdown of a great defense against a great offense. It's a matchup between the two marquee QBs of the 2008 NFL Draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. It's the potential last hurrah for two sure-fire Hall of Famers(Ray Lewis and Tony Gonzalez) and another possible Canton resident(Ed Reed), and maybe even a last goodbye for Derrick Mason. It's a rematch of perhaps the only entertaining Thursday night game all season and a game that ended with some very suspect officiating at the end. It's a chance for John Harbaugh to steal a little of the spotlight from his San Fran-bound brother, and it's a chance for two cities(one that had its team stolen from them in the middle of the night, the other a team that lost the biggest star the team has ever had to dogfighting) to finally stand on top of the world.

2. Packers-Patriots: A rematch of the two's hotly-contested battle a few weeks ago, this time with Aaron Rodgers(hopefully) filling in for Matt Flynn(it's also a rematch of the '96 Super Bowl, the last one the Packers won, but that may be too dated to matter that much). It's a showdown between two of the league's best QBs and a shot to finally step out of the shadow of Brett Favre for Rodgers. It's arguably the league's smartest coach and most meticulous gameplanner against argaubly one of the game's dumbest coaches and worst crunchtime coaches. It will be a nice cherry on top of a battered sundae for the Packers or yet another notch on the belt of the great Tom Brady.

1. Saints-Patriots: Brees! Brady! That should pretty much say it all. Incase it doesn't, how about this: Reggie Bush doing his best Desmond Howard impression, reporters trying to get a halfway decent quote from Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, endless jokes about Brady's hair, Brees replacing Peyton Manning as Brady's biggest competition for immortality, Brees also getting a shot to play "Legend Killer" for another great QB in back-to-back years, another reason for a huge New Orleans party, Mark Wahlberg vs. Harry Connick Jr., one more week of yelling "Lawfirm!" at BenJarvus Green-Ellis, one more week of yelling "Ray J's Sloppy Seconds!" at Reggie Bush......oh, and it's Brady vs. Brees....and it really doesn't get much better than that.

The Pick: Patriots over Saints - I had Ravens over Packers in the preseason and, as much as I would like to stick to my guns here, both of those teams commit way too many dumb penalties and have too many glaring weaknesses to be relied upon. I do think the Ravens have the best shot at beating New England, but it's hard to bet against this Pats team right now. As for New Orleans, the only team with a legitmate shot at beating them in the NFC is Philly and there's a puncher's chance that the Eagles don't make it out of the first round. I have no faith in Atlanta....not enough convincing wins against tough opponents, not enough experience in the playoffs and, certianly, not enough defense. As good as Matt Ryan has been, he's not winning a shootout with Drew Brees in the playoffs. I like New England over New Orleans because the Patriots can run the ball better and Brady is less likely to make big mistakes than Brees is. As much as I'd like to see the Jets and my Packers here, I think we're looking at another parade in Beantown and another spring of annoying Pats bandwagon fans going nuts. Sorry, America.