Week 1 Picks/2024 NFL Predictions

 The 2024 NFL season kicks off in a few hours. So, let's skip the preamble and get after it, starting with the obligatory season predictions.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Assuming Hollywood Brown doesn’t miss much time with a shoulder injury and Rashee Rice avoids suspension for his Domenic Torretto impression, this will be the best supporting cast Mahomes has had since Tyreek Hill’s departure and could potentially be his best group yet. It’s chalk and it’s lame to pick Pat but he’s won the award twice before with less than what he has now. If he’s healthy, it’s his to lose. 

Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys 

Last season, Lamb led the league in targets (181) and receptions (135) en route to a 1,749 yard (2nd only to Tyreek Hill), 12 TD (third behind Hill and Mike Evans) campaign. This season, Lamb faces even less competition for touches on a Cowboys team that will need to pass the move the ball downfield. 200 targets is well within in the realm of possibility. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby, DE, Las Vegas Raiders 

Dating back to 2011, a pass rusher has won this award in 11 of the last 13 seasons including each of the last four. Crosby seemingly gets better every year and now has Christian Wilkins to take pressure off him on the defensive line. That should help him build on last year’s career-high 14.5 sack campaign. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marvin Harrison Jr, Arizona Cardinals

Maserati Marv is the best wide receiver prospect the NFL has seen in quite some time and he couldn’t have landed in a better situation. The Cardinals desperately needed a go-to guy for QB Kyler Murray and, 6’3” 209 pounds with 4.4 40 wheels, Harrison fits the bill. Arizona’s defense leaves much to be desired, which means Harrison should see a good amount of targets as the offense tries to keep up each week. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles 

Mitchell was arguably the best cover corner in the draft and now joins a revamped Eagles secondary that gets six games against fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott. Philadelphia’s out-of-division schedule also includes features five QBs who finished in the top 14 in interceptions last season. As Mitchell elevates up the depth chart, he should receive plenty of attention from teams trying to avoid Pro Bowler Darius Slay. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets 

If Rodgers can stay healthy (a huge IF coming off an Achilles tear at 40 years old), he has to be the favorite for this award. The four-time MVP showed signs of decline during his final season in Green Bay in 2022 before making it just four plays last year, but he returns this year with arguably the best offensive line, defense and supporting cast he’s ever played with. 

Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions 

Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have transformed the Lions from decades-long laughingstock to potential Super Bowl contenders. That alone should get Campbell’s name engraved on the award. The challenges for Detroit this season will be a much-improved NFC North and adjusting to not longer being able to fly under the radar but Campbell & Co. have the roster to do it. 

AFC Division Winners: Jets, Ravens, Chiefs, Texans

AFC Wild Card: Colts, Dolphins, Browns

NFC Division Winners: Eagles, Lions, Niners, Bucs

NFC Wild Card: Packers, Falcons, Seahawks 

AFC Championship: Jets over Chiefs 

My faith in the Jets is based on two bold predictions:

1. Aaron Rodgers stays healthy all season.
2. The Jets end up with Davante Adams at some point this year. 

With a strong defense and an embarrassment of riches on offense, the Jets could still get by without No.2 but last year proved they definitely can’t get by without No. 1. If Gang Green can somehow get Hassan Reddick to suit up, that would make their championship hopes even stronger. 

Also, we finally get Rodgers vs Mahomes after the latter lost to Zach Wilson last season. 

NFC Championship: Eagles over Lions

The Eagles shored up one of the league’s worst pass defenses by drafting rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean as well as bringing back C.J. Gardner Johnson. They also swapped out the disgruntled Hassan Reddick for Bryce Huff, coming off a 10-sack season with the Jets. Oh, and they added one of the league’s best young running backs in Saquon Barkley to an already-great offense. The Eagles will miss Jason Kelce on the offensive line and gambling on the oft-injured Barkley to stay healthy may prove unwise but the pieces are there for Philly to bounce back from last year’s letdown campaign. 

Super Bowl: Jets over Eagles

In a grand example of wishful thinking, Rodgers caps off his “F you” season by leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl in 55 years before riding off into the sunset. For years, we’ve written off the Jets because “it’s the Jets and nothing good ever happens to them”, but if that string of bad luck was to ever change, wouldn’t this be the roster that does it? 

On to Week 1...(lines courtesy of DraftKings)

Ravens at Chiefs (-3) 

The defending champions are 13-5 since the NFL introduced the kickoff game in 2002. Granted, one of those losses was Kansas City last season vs Detroit but the Chiefs were without Pro Bowlers Chris Jones (holdout) and Travis Kelce (knee). Now at nearly full strength (Marquise Brown is out), Patrick Mahomes should be able to improve on his 4-1 record over reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. 

Pick: Chiefs

Packers at Eagles (-2)

This game being held in Brazil might be one of the dumbest ideas the NFL ever conceived and the potential safety risks greatly outweigh the rewards. That aside, this will be an exciting showdown between two of the league’s best young QBs: Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Both teams made improvements to their awful defenses but veteran experience tips the scales in Philly’s favor.

Pick: Eagles 

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5)

Both teams will be lead by aging QBs seeking redemption with their new squads. 36-year-old Kirk Cousins takes over a Falcons team with a trio of young weapons in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts after his final season in Minnesota was cut short by an Achilles tear. Meanwhile, 35-year-old Russell Wilson is eager to remove the stench of his Broncos tenure while trying to keep fellow new acquisition Justin Fields from taking his job. Atlanta has the offensive advantage and may have just enough defense to limit Mr. Unlimited.

Pick: Falcons 

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5)

Well, well, well…how the turntables. A season ago, Bills QB Josh Allen was at the helm of a dangerous offense led by WR Stefon Diggs while the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray was in desperate need of a No. 1 receiver (or really any receiver). Now, Diggs (and partner Gabe Davis) are gone while Murray has a new toy in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Buffalo could still pull this one out at home but favoring a team with so many offensive question marks by a touchdown is too risky. Bills win, but Cardinals cover. 

Pick: Cardinals 

 

Titans at Bears (-3.5)

No first overall pick has entered into a better situation than Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams will walk into in Chicago. After failing to build around Justin Fields for years, the Bears added a Pro Bowl WR (Keenan Allen), a Pro Bowl RB (D’Andre Swift) and a top 10 overall pick (WR Rome Odunze) alongside four-time 1,000 yard receiver DJ Moore to aid the NFL’s latest “generational talent”. It remains to be seen whether head coach Matt Eberflus, who Bears fans were calling to get rid of last year, can help Williams and company reach their potential. 

However, don’t overlook the Titans, who made wholesale changes on both sides of the ball and the coaching staff in the offseason. I don’t expect Caleb Williams to succumb to the home opener jitters but I think this one will be closer than you think. 

Pick: Titans

Patriots at Bengals (-8.5)

There isn’t much to talk about here. In the first year of the post-Belichick era, the Patriots look awful in every facet of the game. QB Jacoby Brissett will take over behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line with arguably the league’s worst supporting cast while a patchwork defense tries to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals. 

This one could get ugly fast. 

Pick: Bengals 

 

Texans at Colts (+3)

I had high hopes for an Anthony Richardson redemption season, and it still might happen, but he looked rough in the preseason. Now, he starts his sophomore season off against a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations. C.J. Stroud will follow up his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign with two new weapons (WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon) while fellow Rookie of the Year Will Anderson now has former Vikings Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter at the other end. 

A-Rich will have his moments but he’s walking into a buzzsaw here.

Pick: Texans 

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5) 

This one has shootout potential. Salary cap woes and injuries shredded a once-promising Dolphins roster but the team is still going to play fast on offense. On the other side, the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence $275 million in the offseason hoping he’d finally make good on his “generational” potential. This will come down to whatever quarterback blinks first and my guess is Lawrence, who threw 14 picks last season and now faces a talented Miami secondary.

Pick: Dolphins

Panthers at Saints (-4)

There’s cause for optimism in Carolina. For one, there’s nowhere to go but up after going 2-14 last season. The team brought in a new coach in Dave Caneles and gave last year’s top pick Bryce Young some new weapons in Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathan Brooks. 

Second, it’s possible the Panthers aren’t the worst team on the field Sunday. Saints QB Derek Carr has one winning season as a starter since 2016 and will drop back behind a patchwork offensive line with limited options beyond Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Neither Carr nor head coach Dennis Allen are long for the world in the Big Easy and it’s only a matter of time before the team turns the ball over to rookie Spencer Rattler and starts planing for next season. 

After essentially giving away Caleb Williams to get him, Young needs a bounce back season in the worst way and New Orleans is a good place to start. 

Pick: Panthers

Vikings at Giants (+1.5) 

I feel bad for anyone forced to have Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones on their television screens. While neither team have high hopes this season, it’s a little insulting oddsmakers see the Giants as home underdogs vs a 27-year-old QB on his fourth team in five seasons. This is a pick ‘em at best, but if you’re letting me take points, I will.

Pick: Giants 

Raiders at Chargers (-3)

Jim Harbaugh left a championship team in Michigan to take over a Chargers squad besieged by salary cap issues. The result is a revamped, bare-bones roster that will rely on a ground-and-pound offensive scheme and a talented defense to get by. The Raiders, meanwhile, are on borrowed time. After driving WR Davante Adams crazy all last season by forcing him to catch passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Aiden O’Connell, Las Vegas is gambling on Gardner Minshew being able to keep Adams content. If he can’t, expect the trade rumors that have surrounded the Pro Bowl wideout for over a year to keep circulating before coming to a head. I need to see more of these teams to get a better grasp on what to expect but Harbaugh’s a winner, so he gets my vote. 

Pick: Chargers 

Broncos at Seahawks (-6)

It’s Bo Time! After running Russell Wilson out of Denver, head coach Sean Payton tabbed Nix as his QB of the future. Nix played well in the preseason and it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a day against a Seattle defense still adjusting to new coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme but the Seahawks have too much on O to not pull away in this one. 

Pick: Seahawks 

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5)

This has the makings of a rough season in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy, who should’ve been fired after losing to the seven seed Packers in the playoffs last season, is in the final year of his deal with no extension in sight. Dak Prescott, fresh off leading the league in touchdown passes, is also searching for a new deal that may not come. The defense, once a strong suit, already took some hits from the injury bug while the offensive line is replacing three starters. 

Making matters worse, they open up on the road against one of a Browns team that led the league in total defense and pass defense last season. Unless Deshaun Watson absolutely implodes, Cleveland should have this one well in hand. 

Pick: Browns

Commanders at Bucs (-3.5)

 This could be a fun one. Two former Heisman-winning QBs and two teams that finished in the bottom 10 in pass defense last season going head to head. Jayden Daniels has all the tools to be the best QB Washington has had in awhile but he doesn’t have the pieces around him just yet and the hiring of Dan Quinn isn’t enough to save this porous defense from getting ripped apart by a resurgent Baker Mayfield. I like the Bucs and the over (42.5 points).

Pick: Bucs 

Rams at Lions (-4.5)

The Lions and Rams met in the playoffs in Matt Stafford’s first game in Motown since being traded to Los Angeles. That game wound up being a 24-23 barnburner with Detroit escaping for its first playoff win in three decades.

Nine months later, both teams will do it again except Stafford will be missing some crucial parts on the defensive end. Future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired and rising star linebacker Ernest Jones was traded in the offseason, leaving an already depleted defensive unit in even worse condition. The Rams used a first-round pick on pass rusher Jared Verse but he’s going to have a tough time against a stout Lions offensive line. Detroit also made additions on defense, most notably rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold from Alabama. 

I expect this game to be as good as the one in January but not as close with the Lions putting the league on notice at home.

Pick: Lions

Jets at Niners (-4.5)

A potential Super Bowl matchup is devoid of some of the uncertainties it faced coming into this week. WR Brandon Aiyuk, who held out all offseason, got his new contract. The same for All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Christian McCaffrey, who missed all of the preseason with a hamstring injury, is believed to be good to go. So, we turn our attention to the Jets where Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the first time since tearing his Achilles on last season’s Monday night opener. Pass rusher Hassan Reddick? Well, he might not, as he awaits either a trade or a new deal or both. 

Even with two deep and talented offenses, it wouldn’t surprise me if this winds up being a defensive struggle. I give the edge to the Niners because they have a few less question marks and one less aging QB coming off a massive injury than their counterpart. 

Pick: Niners

Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 82-64-4

Titans (+3.5) over Packers

The Packers are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys thanks to a combination of bad play-calling, costly mistakes and the element of surprise. If Christian Watson’s three-touchdown breakout wasn’t a fluke, Green Bay has a shot at turning things around, but Tennessee isn’t foolish enough to get into a shootout with the Packers like Dallas did. The Titans will look to control the clock with Derrick Henry and the return of DT Jeffrey Simmons gives them an X-factor on defense. Titans crush the Packers’ momentum before it starts and pull off the “upset”.


Bears (+3.5) over Falcons

The Bears are currently at the bottom of the NFC standings, and yet, one win separates these two teams. Justin Fields is arguably the best player on the field out of both squads (at least until Atlanta figures out what to do with Kyle Pitts and Drake London), so I’m leaning towards Chicago.

Bills (-7.5) over Browns

Nothing says “home game” like having a team from Buffalo play a team from the Midwest in Detroit but six feet of snow in west New York forced the league’s hand. Once the kings of the AFC, the Bills are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need this one to take the division back from Miami.

Eagles (-6.5) over Colts

Jeff Saturday winning his coaching debut probably has more to do with how putrid Las Vegas is than any revelations he’s offering on the sidelines, but if he can upset the 8-1 Eagles, they should name the Coach of the Year award after him. I don’t see that happening though.

Jets (+3.5) over Patriots

The Patriots are the Jets’ only loss since late September and but Gang Green is coming off a bye week after a huge upset over Buffalo. They’re rested and momentum is on their side. New York evens the series here.

Rams (+2.5) over Saints

With Cooper Kupp pretty much done for the season and the Rams at 3-6, I was ready to write off the defending champs, but this Saints team is somehow worse and Dennis Allen’s insistence on sticking with Andy Dalton at QB should cost him his job. Both of these teams suck but I’ll take the points.

Giants (-3.5) over Lions

Oddsmakers still don’t believe in the Giants, hence the low spread at home against the putrid Lions. Maybe it’s a lack of faith in the league’s 22nd-ranked scoring offense? Maybe it’s because Danny Dimes is a basically a rich man’s Taysom Hill? Maybe they still believe in Detroit? Regardless of the reason, even New York’s Tecmo Bowl offense should be able to move the ball on one of the worst defensive units in football.

Ravens (-12.5) over Panthers

The three of you who read this piece every week know how leery I am of double-digit spreads but banking on Baker Mayfield to keep this game close is a fool’s errand. I’d be shocked if Baltimore doesn’t rout here.

Commanders (-3) over Texans

Despite everything that’s happened on and off the field, Washington is still in the playoff mix. As for Houston, only pride stands between the Texans and the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

Raiders (+2.5) over Broncos

This is a toss-up between two colossal disappointments but both Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels are playing to keep their jobs next season, so desperation is on their side.

Vikings (+1.5) over Cowboys

For weeks, I knocked the Vikings as a team that padded its record on beating bad teams. Then, they beat Buffalo in arguably the best game of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys choked against a Packers team that’s found ways to lose all season. If Dallas couldn’t stop rookie Christian Watson, what hope do they have against Justin Jefferson?

Bengals (-3.5) over Steelers

The lone hope for the Steelers is TJ Watt disrupts Cincinnati’s passing game enough to keep this close. Otherwise, this is going to get ugly.

Chargers (+5.5) over Chiefs

I don’t know why I still believe in the Chargers, who haven’t beaten a good team all season, but they always play the Chiefs hard and they are getting some weapons back while KC is short-handed. Chiefs win but LA keeps it close.

Niners (-8) over Cardinals

The only question about this game is whether Kyler Murray plays or not. If he suits up, Arizona could, at the very least, cover against a San Fran team still figuring things out offensively. If it’s Colt McCoy, it’s over by halftime.

Week 10 Picks

 Last Week: 8-4-1

Season: 72-60-4

Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers

There’s little incentive for Carolina to win this game and any movement in Baker Mayfield’s direction as the starting QB would indicate they’re going into the tank. Falcons should win but the bigger issue is just how horrid this TNF slate has been thus far.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Seahawks

Geno Smith is one of the six quarterbacks Tom Brady will likely have to face off against in the playoffs, so a win here would be a huge boost to his confidence and a huge L for everyone who got jokes off at the 45-year-old’s expense this season.

Also, on paper, the first regular season NFL game in Germany looks better than anything the league has sent to London. Read into that what you will.

Vikings (+6.5) over Bills

The Vikings’ good fortune continues as, just when it looked like they were going to face real competition for the first time this season, Bills star QB Josh Allen might sit this one out. If Allen can’t go, Buffalo’s explosive offense received a massive downgrade with Case Keenum behind center, opening the door for a Minnesota upset.

(Update: Allen is expected to start.)

Bears (-3) over Lions

Given the state of the rest of the NFC and the rise of QB Justin Fields, you can’t rule out the Bears making a run towards a playoff spot. They’re 1.5 games behind San Francisco for the 7th seed and now get a Detroit team that lost the momentum it showed earlier in the season.

Titans (-2.5) over Broncos

This could be a potential trap game for the Titans. The Broncos are sneaky good on defense, Ryan Tannehill might be a little rusty after missing the last two games and Tennessee plays again in four days. I’m still taking Tennessee but I don’t feel good about it.

Chiefs (-9.5) over Jaguars

Chiefs have a shot at the AFC’s one seed and Jacksonville hasn’t been good in months. Any chance of this game being close is contingent on Trevor Lawrence showing the skills that made him a No. 1 overall pick.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Browns

Miami hasn’t lost since getting Tua back while Cleveland is coming off its first win since September. The Browns’ best chance is unleashing their one-two punch on the ground to keep the Dolphins’ O off the field.

Giants (-2.5) over Texans

The Texans are currently leading the Bryce Young Sweepstakes and have little incentive to put up a fight against a Giants team trying to secure a playoff spot. This spread should really be higher.

Steelers (-1) over Saints

TJ Watt is back, Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t and that’s probably more than enough to hold off the Saints’ battered offense led by soon-to-be analyst Andy Dalton.

Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers

A high draft pick is Aaron Rodgers' best shot at getting a top tier weapon and the Packers are currently projected to select 8th in April's draft. In true Packers fashion, Green Bay will find a way to win this game but I refuse to pick this team the rest of the season. 

Colts (-4.5) over Raiders

The Colts caught a lot of shit for hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach but, if you’re going to bring in a former player with no coaching experience, there are worse ways to make a debut than against the lowly Raiders. I like Indy to at least cover here.

Rams (-3) over Cardinals

My condolences to anyone that is stuck with Colt McCoy vs John Wolford on their TV screen. Rams have the better defense, so they get the nod in the Battle of the Backups.

Chargers (+7.5) over Niners

The Chargers have been beat up and underwhelming this year but thinking a Jimmy G-led Niners team is more than a touchdown better is criminal. I’m sure I’ll eat those words but I like LA here.

Eagles (-11) over Commanders

I’m always leery of double-digit spreads in obvious one-sides matchups but the Commanders are a shitshow and the Eagles could use a dominant win.

Week 9 Picks

 Last week: 8-7

Season: 64-56-3


Eagles (-13.5) over Texans

I tend to lean towards the underdog on double-digit/two-touchdown spreads but it’s hard to imagine a Brandon Cooks-less Texans team mounting enough offense to keep it close against the best team in the NFC.

Lions (+3.5) over Packers

My strategy going forward is to pick against the Packers until they prove they can win another game, even in a clash against the anemic Lions.

Falcons (+2.5) over Chargers

The Falcons have been sneaky good this season and they get Swiss Army knife Cordarelle Patterson back against a Chargers team missing its top receivers. I smell an upset here.

Dolphins (-4.5) over Bears

The Dolphins landed pass-rusher Bradley Chubb at the deadline and face a Bears team allowing the most sacks in the league. This is going to be a long day for Justin Fields.

Bengals (-7) over Panthers

It would be in the Panthers’ best interest to see what they have in P.J. Walker and tank for a higher draft spot in order to select a franchise QB next April. They’ll accomplish both by getting steamrolled by the Bengals.

Patriots (-5.5) over Colts

The Colts might have given up on head coach Frank Reich and, even if they haven’t, they aren’t healthy enough to be much of a factor the rest of the season. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a puncher’s chance at a wild card spot.

Jets (+10.5) over Bills

The Jets can’t trade shots with the Bills but the defense is good enough to slow Buffalo down and cover the spread.

Vikings (-3) over Commanders

If the Packers lose to the Lions with the Cowboys, Titans and Eagles coming up next, it’s not unrealistic to think the Vikings can have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving as long as they continue to feast on cupcakes.

Jaguars (+2.5) over Raiders

It’s hard to see either of these teams making the playoffs at 2-5 but, even only nine weeks into the season, this feels like an eliminator game for whoever loses this one.

Seahawks (+1.5) over Cardinals

We currently live in a world where Geno Smith is the third-best QB in the NFC. You win, universe.

Bucs (-3) over Rams

The saving grace for Tom Brady is, after this one, the rest of the schedule is soft and he could still sneak into the playoffs for one last title run.

Chiefs (-12.5) over Titans

We really got Patrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis before Mahomes vs Rodgers. A year or two from now, a showdown between these two will be a bigger deal but the rookie doesn’t stand a chance against Mahomes, who hasn’t lost in a November and December since 2019.

(Note: This is all a moot point if Ryan Tannehill plays.)

Ravens (-2) over Saints

Not playing Monday night: Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Jameis Winston.

Not watching Monday night: Most of America outside of Baltimore and New Orleans.

Week 8 Picks

 Week 8

Last week: 7-7

Season: 56-49-3

Bucs (-2.5) over Ravens

There’s no way Tom Brady loses three straight, right? Right? 

Jaguars (-1) over Broncos

If the Broncos traded Russell Wilson for Baker Mayfield, how much worse would they possibly be?

Related note: The people of London deserve better than the turd burgers the NFL gives them. 

Panthers (+4) over Falcons

Once considered the worst team in football, the Panthers now seem poised to be the team that overperforms its way out of a top draft slot as a sign of solidarity to their interim coach. This might be an overreaction to last week’s “upset” of the Bucs, but I don’t think either of these teams are good enough to pull away from the other by more than a field goal. 

Cowboys (-10) over Bears

If you loved Dak Prescott nearly getting Wally Pipp’d by Cooper Rush, you’re going to really enjoy Tony Pollard rendering Ezekiel Elliott obsolete. Double digits is a large number for a Cowboys offense still finding its footing with Dak back, but the Bears are hot garbage right now and Dallas could use a statement win.

Dolphins (-3.5) over Lions 

There’s shootout potential here as neither defense has shown a knack for getting stops. The Dolphins get the edge because they have the more talented offense. 

Vikings (-3.5) over Cardinals 

Minnesota doesn’t have a win over a single team that might make the playoffs (unless you include Miami, who was without Tua) and that trend continues with dysfunctional Arizona. Vikings move on to an empty 6-1 as Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury move closer to couples therapy. 

Raiders (-1.5) over Saints

This has the makings of being the worst game of the season. New Orleans is without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry with rookie Chris Olave still working his way back from a concussion. As for Las Vegas, Davante Adams is playing through the flu and Darren Walker is a game-time call with a sore hamstring. Shame on you for making me pick on of these teams!

Jets (+3) over Patriots

The Jets are 5-2 and are somehow three-point underdogs at home against a Patriots team playing on a short week after getting their asses kicked by the Bears. Make it make sense.  

Eagles (-10.5) over Steelers

The Eagles’ good luck will run out eventually, but at home against the worst Steelers team in decades led by a rookie QB? Naaaah. 

Titans (+1) over Texans 

Malik Willis is making his first NFL start and he’s going to need time to work through the growing pains but, with his skill set and how bad the Texans are, there’s a chance he never gives the starting job back to Ryan Tannehill. 

Commanders (+3) over Colts 

We get a Taylor Heinicke vs Sam Ehlinger QB duel and this still isn’t the worst game on this week’s slate. 

Niners (-1) over Rams 

The Rams being on a bye last week made you forget that Matt Stafford deserves to be on Mount Washedmore with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson this season. Don’t worry. The Niners are here to remind you.

Giants (+3.5) over Seahawks 

The Giants are probably more lucky than good but they’re competent on defense and the Seahawks’ top two wideouts are hobbled with injuries. Take the points. 

Bills (+10.5) over Packers

There’s one nail remaining in the Packers’ 2022 coffin and the Bills are the hammer. 

Bengals (-3.5) over Browns 

The Bengals managed to climb out of the grave they dug for themselves early in the season and the next five weeks look like this: @Cleveland, vs Carolina, bye week, @Pittsburgh, @Tennessee. Even if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t suit up at any point during that stretch, Cincy could possibly be 8-3 going into their Week 13 clash at home against the Chiefs after a 0-2 start. (Larry David voice) Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Week 7 Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 49-42-3

Cardinals (-2.5) over Saints 

The Cardinals finally get DeAndre Hopkins back after a six-game suspension. They’re still terrible but this makes them a little more fun to watch and should be enough to take down a short-handed Saints squad. 

Packers (-4.5) over Commanders

This is the worst Packers team since Green Bay went 6-9-1 in 2018 and a strong contender for the worst since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. The offense isn't producing any big plays because the O-line can't keep Rodgers upright and the defense, which the franchise has invested a ton of draft capital in over the years much to the chagrin of their Hall of Fame QB, is on the field too long to fully realize its potential. With all that said, a clash with the dysfunctional Commanders is a smash spot for a Packers team in need of a confidence boost.

Falcons (+6.5) over Bengals 

The Falcons are quietly playing .500 football and are coming off a 14-point win over the Niners. The Bengals are back from the dead but Atlanta will be competitive enough to keep it close. 

Cowboys (-6.5) over Lions

All eyes will be on the return of Dak Prescott after backup Cooper Rush went 4-1 as a starter in Dak’s absence. If Dallas’ $160 million man can’t shake off the rush and put away Detroit, you can expect talking heads to come out the woodwork on Monday trying to stir up a QB controversy. 

Colts (+2.5) over Titans

A textbook example of my “Regular Season Doesn’t Matter” theory: both of these teams are suddenly above .500 but still terrible. Someone has to win this game (or in Indy’s case, at least the), so I might as well take the points. 

Buccaneers (-13) over Panthers

I’m skittish about taking the Bucs as double-digit favorites again after they shit the bed against Pittsburgh last week but Carolina is a rotting corpse already being picked through by vultures. If Tampa Bay can’t win convincingly here, Tom Brady should just go ahead and retire after the game. 

Giants (+3) over Jaguars 

Oddsmakers don’t seem to believe in a 5-1 Giants team coming off back-to-back victories over the Ravens and Packers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost three straight, making this spread pretty egregious. It’ll be a low-scoring affair but Big Blue takes the “upset”.

Browns (+6.5) over Ravens 

The Ravens have followed every loss this season with a win and vice versa. Based on that trend, they should win here but injuries on the offensive end make it hard to like that by more than a field goal against a Browns team that can control the clock with a solid run game. 

Jets (-1.5) over Broncos

There’s Cooper Rush potential here with Brett Rypien taking over at QB for the injured and overrated Russell Wilson but the Jets have a ton of momentum after winning four of their last five and their defense is disgusting. 

Texans (+7) over Raiders

I might be getting too cute here but the Raiders have been a colossal disappointment this year and will be playing without Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller. On the flip side, Texans RB Dameon Pierce is making his ROTY case and Houston only has one bad loss on their record. Houston doesn’t just cover. They pull off the upset. 

Chargers (-5.5) over Seahawks 

The Chargers are short-handed on offense but Darrell Brooks is mounting a better defense in a Wisconsin courtroom than the Seahawks have fielded this season (410.8 yards and 27.7 points allowed per game, both bottom-five in the league). As promised, last week was the debut of The Kenneth Walker Show but, unfortunately,  the impressive rookie runner can’t stop Justin Herbert and the Bolts. 

Chiefs (-1.5) over Niners

It’s understandable for people to freak out over the Niners’ acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, but CMC hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and now shares the backfield with the equally fragile Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. A showdown with the high-octane Chiefs isn’t a proper litmus test for this new-look San Fran offense but there’s enough on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive. KC still rolls though.  

Steelers (+7.5) over Dolphins 

The Dolphins as 7.5-point favorites is generous, even against the lowly Steelers. It may be Tua Time once again, but the former Bama star hasn’t played in nearly a month and is no sure bet to make it through this game. Speaking of concussions, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett gets the nod after getting knocked out last week because 50 percent of the rookie is still better than 100 percent of Mitch Trubisky. This has the makings of a shitshow, one Miami will inevitably win but not cover. 

Patriots (-8) over Bears

After mindlessly giving the world Russell Wilson on Monday night twice in six weeks, the NFL will now subject the world to Mac Jones vs Justin Fields. I guess when you know you’re going to lose some of your audience to the NBA and a suddenly resurgent “Monday Night Raw”, you don’t care as much about what you’re putting on primetime. Patriots should cover against one of the worst teams in football but the real winners will be whoever chooses to not watch this game.