Wednesday, December 30, 2009
A Thing I've Learned Recently, 12/30/09
Here it is...Everything else aside, Jim Zorn is not fit to coach in the NFL because he can't motivate his team. See - the last two games. In an ideal world, my ideal world at least, an NFL head coach would not do anything else but lead the team. His job would be to motivate and provide direction. He would not also be an offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator. He would not also be the general manager.
In my ideal world an organization would be run like this: The owner would buy the team and then sit in the plush box, hire smart football people, and write checks (like Bob Craft). The GM worries about contracts and the salary cap and, along with the head coach, evaluates talent (like Ernie Accorsi). The head coach's primary job is to lead and motivate (like Bill Cowher).
Zorn, over the last two games, showed that he cannot motivate the Redskins. In both games the Redskins were playing at home, in primetime, against a division opponent, with a chance to make it very hard for said opponent to make the playoffs. For God's sakes, I could have gotten that locker room fired up.
And they lost these games by a combined 62-12 score, including a 17-0 shutout to their hated rival, the Cowboys.
How does that even happen? Most NFL players are highly competitive and want to win, just because. Just because there is a game. Just because there is an opponent. Just because at the end of the day some is going to win. Yes, there are some players there to collect a check, but most are competitive, inside and outside of football.
At the professional level, in all sports, not just football, success is mostly determined by what happens between the ears. It is about knowing what you have to do, making smart decisions, and being confident. There is very little variation in the athletic ability of all of these players. Peyton Manning is not a better athlete than Jason Campbell, physically, but he has played in the same system since entering the league, so he knows how to do what he needs to do, and he has done for so long it's reactionary. He also knows the game inside and out. He also has a swagger. He thinks he is the best player on the field all the time. That is what you want, a team with 53 guys who think they are the best. Who get mad when they get beat. Who think they are better than anyone lined up across from them.
It is very rare to see a player have a physical gift that allows them to be dominant on the field because no one can match them. Think Barry Sanders' elusiveness, Reggie White's strength, Drew Brees' accuracy. (I think Chris Johnson's speed deserves to be on this list. When he turns the corner he is uncatchable...literally.) That is why the intangibles, as they are called, are so important.
So, in conclusion, Zorn stinks. I guess everyone knew that already, but to me this is the main reason why. He should go be a quarterbacks coach or an OC somewhere next year.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Week 16 Picks, cont.
Last Week:
Gabe: 8-7-1
Dave: 3-12-1
(The Patriots-Bills game was a push.)
Season:
Gabe: 123-97-2
Dave: 108-112-2
This Week, so far:
Gabe: 0-1
Dave: 1-0
Now for the rest of week 16...
Seattle (+14) at Green Bay
Gabe: Green Bay - My inclination here is to say that 14 is too big of a number. I think Seattle has definitely packed it in for the season. I think they would love to play the spoiler, but just don't have it in them. Green Bay by 17.
Dave: Packers - Packers are angry after losing a heart breaker last week and they need this one bad. Seahawks showed last week they've mailed it in. December in Lambeau usually means snow which usually means the better run game wins. Seattle doesn't have a run game so give me Pack by 17
Oakland (+3) at Cleveland
Gabe: Cleveland - Earlier this week I was watching "Top Ten" on the NFL Network. The show was featuring NFL traditions and one of them was the tradition of "groups" of fans. Cleveland's "Dawg Pound" was mentioned and Oakland's "Black Hole" was deemed the nuttiest group of fans. This game is in Cleveland and I think the Dawgs come out. Cleveland by a touchdown.
Dave: Raiders - I'm not buying the Browns newfound love for coach Eric Mangini. Raiders are better defensively and Cleveland's big breakout star Jerome Harrison is hurt. Raiders by 6.
Kansas City (+13) at Cincinnati
Gabe: Cincinnati - The Bengals aren't going to be as distracted this week, and Kansas City just lost to the Browns by a touchdown. Cincy by 17.
Dave: Bengals - The Bengals would like to wrap up the North. Chiefs just want to end the season. I'm not feeling the spread but it's hard picking KC this season. Cincy by 20
Buffalo (+9) at Atlanta
Gabe: Buffalo - Atlanta is still banged up. Buffalo, despite their record, have a good running game with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, and a great secondary, even without rookie Jairus Byrd and his league lead in interceptions. I think the Bills can control the clock and keep things close.
Dave: Falcons - Your starting QB for your Buffalo Bills? Brian Brohm. Yeah, I like Atlanta here. Big
Houston (+3) at Miami
Gabe: Houston - Both of these teams are desperately clinging to their playoff hopes. Both teams need a win badly in this spot. Miami's strength is running the ball. Unless they are playing Chris Johnson Houston's defense is one of the best at stopping the run. I'll give Houston the edge because of their passing game.
Dave: Dolphins - I can't trust Houston to beat a team like Miami that can hit them back in the mouth, though, for fantasy purposes, I hope I'm wrong
Carolina (+7) at New York Giants
Gabe: New York - Speaking of teams needing a win for the playoffs. The Giants need to keep winning and hope Dallas loses. I don't think Matt Moore is going to be able to handle the swirling Meadowlands wins, not that Eli really can but he's at least been there before. Giants by 10.
Dave: Giants - The Panthers generated some nice spoiler buzz after last week's upset which, if this season taught us anything, means they'll shit the bed here. Giants need to stay alive and Panthers are down DeAngelo Williams. Giants by 9.
Tampa Bay (+14) at New Orleans
Gabe: New Orleans - Despite the loss to Dallas I think the Saints are going to still play hard. I think they are going to try to get momentum for the playoffs. Plus, I have starting Pierre Thomas and a certain NO quarterback in the fantasy league I haven't shut up about this season. Drew Breeeeeeees and the Saints win by 21.
Dave: Saints - The Saints are very good. Tampa Bay is not. Sometimes, sports are that easy. Saints by 21
Jacksonville (+8) at New England
Gabe: New England - Jacksonville can't stop anyone, and are caught in middle of the AFC. New England needs a win to make sure they stay ahead of the mess of teams at 7-7. New England by 10.
Dave: Pats - The Pats do their best work at home and, like Cincy, would like to wrap up the division. Meanwhile, Jags are looking at heart specialists for Urban Meyer next season. Pats by 10
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
Gabe: Pittsburgh - Baltimore is going to be without Ed Reed and some other starters in the secondary. Pittsburgh will want to avenge their loss to the Ravens from earlier this year. Steelers by 7.
Dave: Ravens - Desperation game for both teams but Pitt's D sucks out loud as does the O-Line. I'm leery of Flacco on the road but I'll take Ravens by 3.
Denver (+7) at Philadelphia
Gabe: Philadelphia - Fourteen games in and I still can't figure out the Broncos. I do know this though, Philly is playing great and they have all of their offensive starters back. Plus, Philly is one of the toughest places to play on the road.
Dave: Eagles - The Eagles, offensively, are more explosive than they ever been, which will make it hard for an anemic Broncos attack to keep up. Eagles by 13
St. Louis (+14) at Arizona
Gabe: St. Louis - Again, 14 just seems like too many points. Arizona has all of the weapons to dominate this game, but this is also the kind of game in which they usually lay an egg. I'll take St. Louis and that pile of points.
Dave: Cards - The Cards always play down to their competition, making a two touchdown spread tough to take with confidence. Still, if anyone can buck that trend, it's the battered Rams.
Detroit (+13) at San Francisco
Gabe: San Francisco - Detroit still stinks. San Fran plays really well at home. 49er's by a touchdown.
Dave: 49ers - No Kevin Smith, no Matt Stafford, the Lions are pretty much packing it in. I'll take San Fran here.
New York Jets (+5.5) at Indianapolis
Gabe: New York - This is a very dangerous game for the Colts. They have said repeatedly that they are going to treat this game like the 3rd pre-season game and that winning a Super Bowl is more important than 16-0. That means Peyton Manning won't see the second half. If Indy is up big at halftime they will cover this spread, but the Jets have a great defense, so the Colts won't be up big. I actually think the Jets might win this game outright. So....I'll take the Jets in my....wait for it....Upset Special!
Dave: Colts - I know Indy might rest their starters by halftime, but still, less than a touchdown favorite to a Jets team that got handled by Atlanta last week? Makes no sense. Colts by 10
Dallas (-7) at Washington
Gabe: Washington - In a battle of the two teams who can't be motivated, I honestly don't know who to pick. In games when these teams absolutely need to win, they lose. Dallas needs this game to stay ahead of the Giants in the playoff race, so I think they'll flat-out lose. Redskins by 3.
Dave: Redskins - The Redskins are finished, as shown by that pathetic showing on Monday night. That being said, this team played to a 7-6 finish with Frank Francisco notching the 5-out save for Dallas. So eventhough Washington sucks, I think they keep it close
Minnesota (-7) at Chicago
Gabe: Minnesota - Chicago stinks. Minnesota could be locked into a playoff position by the time this game is played, but they'll still roll. The Vikings win huge.
Dave: Vikings - I have to admit, I thought that the Favre-Minny marriage would implode from either an injury or Favre's trademark turnover string. Instead, Favre reached into his purse for the Diva card early. I like them to disembowel lowly Chicago here, but what a powder keg this Favre fiasco will be down the stretch. I LOVE IT!
Friday, December 25, 2009
Week 16 Picks
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Week 15 Picks cont....
Speaking of Gabe, last night's Cowboys upset over the Saints shocked him so much that he is temporarily speechless. So, while I'd love to channel my inner Gabe and talk about guys "gettin' nice", declare a few Upset Specials and drop some random "Drew Breeeeeeeeees!" into his commentary section.....I think we'll put his picks up and leave the speech-ifying for his return. Here goes nothing:
Last Week: (Dave: 5-11, Gabe 10-6)
Season: (Dave: 105-100-1, Gabe: 115-90-1)
This Week: (Dave: 1-1, Gabe 0-2)
Packers(+2) at Steelers
Dave: Steelers - For two reasons here: 1. In the first time I've picked them to win in a month, the Packers played things a little too close against Chicago for my liking and 2. Even after their biggest win in a long time, that didn't stop me from antagonizing Cowboys fans on Facebook until 3 A.M., so I'm sure karma is going to come back to bite me in the ass. Plus, I just can't see the champs losing six straight, especially a must-win at home. So, I'll take Steelers by 3.
Gabe: Packers
Dolphins(+5) at Titans
Dave: Titans - I'm getting this from Hank Greenberg: Titans have covered every game at home since re-emerging in the playoff picture. While I can see Miami's D making things tough for Chris Johnson on the ground(which, for my big money fantasy hopes, I'm praying that's not the case), CJ is still a factor in the passing game. I think this will be one of the uglier games we'll see all year but I like the newfound explosiveness of this Titans offense. Titans by 7.
Gabe: Titans
Patriots(-7) at Bills
Dave: Bills - The Patriots haven't won a true road game all season(their one road win came against lowly Tampa Bay......in London.) and, the last time these two met, the Bills were a Leodis McKelvin botched kickoff away from pulling off the upset. On top of that, the Pats' secondary is a mess and T.O. is playing for a new contract. Plus, Brady's banged up and Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork are sitting this one out. I like Buffalo for the.....wait for it....Upset Special(See, I told you I can channel my inner Gabe). Bills by 3.
Gabe: Patriots
Cardinals(-14) at Lions
Dave: Cardinals - A two touchdown spread is a bit much for a team that will see its biggest weapon, Larry Fitzgerald, going at half-speed. That being said, the Cardinals are surprisingly money on the road and this same Lions defense got torched by an anemic Ravens offense last week. Kevin Smith is done for the year and Calvin Johnson isn't completely right, so I think Arizona big....like 21 points big.
Gabe: Lions
49ers(+8) at Eagles
Dave: Niners - Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm hyperventilating over the Niners big win Monday night against Arizona. It's more that Philly got pounded by two feet of snow, which means the ground is slippery, which means their fast-break offense will suffer a bit and they'll have to run a little more than usual. The Niners are stout on defense and, while the Eagles know Dallas is a little close to them to lose this one, I can't see SF getting blown out here. So I'll take Philly, but by only 6.
Gabe: Eagles
Falcons(+7) at Jets
Dave: Falcons- I'll admit this is a desperation pick because I'm down big to Gabe, but it's not a stretch when you look deeper. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan WILL play for Atlanta(though at what capacity, we don't know.) and, much like in Philly, the snowy field will play a factor on offense for both teams. Granted, not being able to throw is customary for the Jets when they start Mark Sanchez, but without the chance to exploit Atlanta's terrible pass D, this game comes down to whether they can stop 240-pound Mike Turner(albeit at 80%) as well as Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood. I think the winter wonderland will make a lot of the East Coast games close and, eventhough the Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and the Jets aren't, I'll take ATL for the win. Falcons by 6.
Bears(+11) at Ravens
Dave: Bears - Broken record alert: Snow is going to affect offenses playing on the East Coast. Now, normally snowy weather means the better run game will win it(which would be advantage: Ravens) and I still think that holds true....BUT if any QB knows how to sling it in the snow, it's Jay Cutler and the Bears were able to keep it close against a Packers team that is much better than Baltimore. SO...I like the Ravens but I think the Bears play it safe with a lot of dump offs to Matt Forte and short passes to Greg Olsen and keeps an injured Ravens D on the field a lot and makes this game closer than that ridiculous 11-point spread. Ravens by a touchdown...though a Bears win wouldn't shock me.
Gabe: Ravens
Browns(-2.5) at Chiefs
Dave: Chiefs - It seems like the Chiefs have been playing at Arrowhead for the last two months, doesn't it? Anyway, they get Dwayne Bowe back, which boosts an offense that hasn't had a real playmaker outside of Jamaal Charles in Bowe's absence. Brady Quinn has played better in the last couple weeks but, if your the Browns, why ruin a chance at Ndomakong Suh with another meaningless win? Browns flop here and Chiefs win it by 3.
Gabe: Chiefs
Texans(-14) at Rams
Dave: Texans - Houston proved it can still whoop on a bad team when it wants to with their curb-stomping of Seattle last week. That probably means they'll shit the bed against the Rams and not cover the spread, but for fantasy purposes, I'm going with the thought process that Matt Schaub and Andre 3000 will have a field day here. Plus, the Rams are trotting out Keith Null against a decent Texans D......not good. Texans by 17.
Gabe: Texans
Bengals(+7) at Chargers
Dave: Chargers - You want to think that Chad Ochocinco will play the game of his life in memory of fallen teammate Chris Henry. That very well may happen. The Bengals proved after the loss of DC Mike Zimmer's wife that they can be motivated by tragedy and pull off a big win. However, that game was against Baltimore, this game is against what I feel is the best team in the AFC in the San Diego Chargers and it's IN San Diego. The Bengals will be playing inspired football but they just aren't explosive enough on offense to match the Bolts and Phillip Rivers has NEVER lost in December(though last night proved that streaks were made to end). Chargers by 10.
Gabe: Bengals
Raiders(+14) at Broncos
Dave: Broncos - Denver's at home, needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt and the Raiders are starting Charlie Frye. Do I need to go further? Broncos by 20.
Gabe: Raiders
Bucs(+6.5) at Seahawks
Dave: Seahawks - Really don't understand why Josh Freeman is still at QB when a. He blew the Panthers game two weeks ago by throwing 5 picks, 3 of which in the red zone and b. Josh Johnson is not that bad of a QB. The classic axiom of East Coast team traveling to the West Coast comes into play here as does the fact that Seattle is better than their record and the Bucs are actually worse than theirs(which is saying something, since their 1-12). Qwest Field is probably one of the toughest, if not THE toughest, places to play in the NFL....especially for a rookie QB with Jay Cutler-like decision making ability. Seahawks rout here.....win by 13.
Gabe: Seahawks
Vikings(-9) at Panthers
Dave: Vikings - Not sure why Gabe likes Carolina here(though I'm sure he'll explain when the time comes). Vikings smell the top spot in the NFC after the Saints' loss and they'll be unleashing the best D-Line in the NFL against a Panthers O-Line missing both starting tackles. Also, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have been banged up and/or useless all season and that fact will only be exacerbated by going up against The Williams Wall. (Side note: Vikings LB Chad Greenway might be the most underrated defensive player in the NFL. If he's not the game's best OLB, he's not too far down the list.) Vikings by 17.
Gabe: Panthers
Giants(-3) at Redskins
Dave: Giants - Big Blue is desperate now that they need help to stay in the Wild Card race and they aren't going to let a suddenly lively Redskins team blow it for them. Eli Manning's piss-poor in the cold so that means a heavy helping(pun intended) of Brandon Jacobs and, let's face it, nobody wants to tackle a 6'4, 260lb man running uphill in the cold, right? Giants bowl over Washington here by 13.
Gabe: Giants......obviously.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Franchise of the Decade
Now, before we get into the winner, here's a run down of the runner-ups.....in no particular order.
1. New York Yankees: What I was looking for mainly in the franchise of the decade was simple: number of championships and/or championship appearances the team made, number of potentially great players the team had on its roster over the course of the decade, and the distance between said team and what would have been the second best team in its sport. The latter point is what hurt the Yankees the most. Sure, the Yanks went to four World Series, winning two of them, this decade and there's no question that they finished this decade with potentially more all-time greats than any team in any sport(Jeter, A-Rod, Clemens, Rivera, Sheffield....the list goes on forever). The problem with those two parameters in terms of the Yankees(and I realize this isn't the Yankees' fault) is that there's no set cap in Major League Baseball. The Yankees can afford to have the greatest players because they can afford to buy an All-Star team. Even with that said, how much of a distance do you put between the Yankees and Red Sox over this past decade. Both won the same amount of titles(though the Sawx, in more impressive fashion, swept both of their World Series opponents). Both were perennial playoff teams(though the Yankees made it there far more often than Boston did) and, while the Yankees owned the Red Sox for the first half of the decade, all of that seemed to become moot once the Red Sox came back from a 3-0 deficit to eliminate the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS and go on to win their first of two titles this decade. So while the Yankees were certainly the most impressive team in their sport over the past ten years, the Red Sox were equally noteworthy.
2. San Antonio Spurs - It's hard to argue with their consistency over the last ten years. They've won at least 54 games every year this decade. They won three titles in three tries. They have one of the five greatest basketball players to ever step foot on the hardwood in Tim Duncan. They have one of the greatest coaches of all time in Greg Poppavich. In the end, they came up just a hair short of the team that inevitably took home the Team of the Decade crown(Spoiler Alert: It's the Lakers).
3. New England Patriots - Since the emergence of future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady in 2001, the Patriots have towered over the NFL like a colossus. They've won three Super Bowls in four tries and, like the Spurs, have possess one of the game's greatest players(Brady) and one of the game's greatest coaches(Bill Belichick). So what keeps them from being the best of the decade? Well, if you want to be nitpicky, they DID go 5-11 to start off the year(although that did lead to them snagging DE Richard Seymour in the following year's Draft). Obviously, if they beat the Giants in the Super Bowl in 2007 and finish 19-0, they win this award going away.......but they didn't. Also, outside of Brady, all of the other great Patriots of the last ten years(Randy Moss, Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, Corey Dillon) enjoyed the primes of their career elsewhere(unless you believe Ty Law and Richard Seymour are sure-fire Hall of Fame types....which I don't). Sure, you could make the case for Wes Welker as a potential Hall of Famer, but I think we are a few years from that and also(again, being nitpicky), it's hard to give top honors to a team that had their own cheating scandal(Spygate). Plus, the case can be made that, even before this season, Peyton Manning's Colts closed some of the gap from the distance between themselves and the Pats much like the Red Sox did to the Yankees over the second half of the decade.
Before we announce the winner, I'm sure some people will wonder why the case wasn't made for the Colorado Avalanche or the New Jersey Devils or the Detroit Red Wings or any other potentially dominant hockey team. The answer is pretty simple: While we here are proud of our following in Europe and appreciate their interests, we(like the rest of America) don't give a crap about hockey. Sorry.
Anyway, here's our winner:
Look, it pains me to put the Lakers here, too, but the fact remains that 6 NBA Finals appearance and 4 NBA titles in ten years is pretty damn impressive. Sure, their regular season winning percentage is lower than San Antonio's and they've had as many MVP winners(Shaq in '99-'00, Kobe in 2007-08) as the Spurs have this decade(Duncan in '01-02 and '02-'03). Still, it's hard to argue with a team that had, for most the decade at least, this generation's most dominant big man(Shaq), this generation's most unstoppable scorer(Kobe) and this generation's best coach(Phil Jackson).
Shaq and Kobe will go down in history, not only as possibly the best players ever at their respective positions, but as one of sports' greatest dynamic duos. To put it in another perspective, they are the Jay-Z and Damon Dash of basketball -- a tandem who will forever be synonymous both for their greatness together as well as their much-publicized split. The hypothetical question of "How many rings would Shaq and Kobe have won together had they managed to stay together?" will go down as one of the sport's greatest "What ifs". The fact that, at one point, this team reached the NBA Finals with a starting five that included Shaq, Kobe, Karl Malone and Gary Payton just makes it more awe-inspiring, and that team didn't even win the title.
The most impressive of the four championships might have been last year's title, with Kobe managing to finally win his first championship without The Diesel and, instead, proving that he could lead the team on his own with a group of good, but not great, role players in guys like Trevor Ariza, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. The Lakers also led all contenders in the memorable moment department. In this decade alone, there was Shaq's 61-point performance against the Clippers on his birthday, the two amazing playoff buzzer beaters from Robert Horry(against the Kings) and Derek Fisher(against the Spurs), and Kobe's 81-point night against Toronto.
On top of that, the 2009-10 Lakers seem primed to outperform the achievements of last year's title team. While the team's 20-4 start obviously has no barring in the vote for this honor, it certainly will get the franchise off to a great start if they can cap off this season with yet another championship.
To 16-0 or not to 16-0?
I bet, unless you're a football dork like me or Dave, it took you a minute, some thinking, maybe even a quick trip over to NFL.com or Wikipedia to answer the first question.
But for the second question I bet you were able to spit out "The '72 Dolphins and the '07 Patriots" rather quickly. Which is exactly why this year's Colts and Saints should be trying to go for the perfect season. Completing this season 16-0 will put them in the history books and people's memory forever. Super Bowl winners, quite honestly, get lost in the shuffle. That is because there is a Super Bowl winner every year. I mean, for crying out loud, the Tampa Bay Bucs have won a Super Bowl in the last ten years.
With perfect seasons however, there have only been two in the modern era. (There were a few in the "pre-modern" era of professional football, but they all either lost in the championship game or were part of the AAFC, whose records are not included in NFL records because not all of the teams migrated to the NFL. How's that for a history lesson?)
Also, they have to go 16-0 to be remembered. The 1998 Minnesota Vikings went 15-1 and no one cares.
Besides, going 16-0 could actually help them in the playoffs. The year the Patriots went 18-1 they played the Giants in the regular season finale. Both teams were locked into their seeds for the playoffs. (The Pats had the top seed in the AFC, obviously, and the Giants were the 5 seed in the NFC.) Both teams played that last game like it meant something and guess what, they met a month later in the Super Bowl.
So, I think the Saints and Colts should play for the perfect seasons. Done and done.
Oh, and by the way, the winners of the 2006 Super Bowl?....The Indianapolis Colts.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Slim Second Chance
Week 15 Picks
Let's get Week 15 started....
Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville
Gabe: Jacksonville - I firmly believe the Colts are not going 16-0. I've been doubting them all year and they have been making me look like a fool. Well, the Colts are banged up. They are playing on a short week. Jacksonville is a divisional opponent and knows the Colts well. The Jags always play the Colts tough and would love nothing more than to be the team that ends to Colts winning streak. So, I'll take Mojo D to run wild over the Colts tattered defense and lead the Jags to win a close, physical game. Upset special? Sure, why not.
Dave: Indianapolis - Sure, the Colts are on a short week. So are the Jags. Sure, the Colts are banged up, but 50% of the Colts has to be better than all of a Jags team that quit two months ago, right? Remember, this is the same Jags team that got a 41-0 curb-stomping from the Seahawks a while back. THE SEAHAWKS! The thing about Indy is that when you think they're going to finally have a let down, they don't. They could have legitimately lost to any of the last few teams they've played(Pats, Texans, Titans, Broncos) and they didn't. The Colts might be missing half the roster but they still have Peyton Manning and, in a night game, that's hard to pick against. I like the Colts by 6.
Dallas (+7.5) at New Orleans
Gabe: New Orleans - I firmly believe the Saints ARE going 16-0. Their coach as already said they are going to play for an unbeaten season, which I think is a great move heading into the playoffs. On top of all that the Cowboys Roy Williams opened his yap with a guarantee this week. I think the Cowboys continue their tiresomely talked about December swoon. I love Drew Breeeeees and the rest of the Saints at home in this spot. Saints by 14.
Dave: New Orleans - You can't go running your mouth when a. you're the highest paid receiver on your team and you're 4th on the team in receiving, b. have hands that are made of titanium and c. play on a team that is absolutely terrible in December. The Saints D isn't great, but on any given Sunday, it finds a way to be better than the opponent's offense. As for the Cowboys' offense, it's Plaxico Burress....as in, it can't stop shooting itself in the foot(or leg, however you want to complete the analogy). I like Drew Brees to expose the Cowboys' secondary(and with DeMarcus Ware woozy, he won't have to worry about the Cowboys' only pass rush threat constantly in his face) and I like Flozell Adams to commit about 8 penalties and not get suspended. Saints by 10.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Story of the Decade
Things I've Learned Recently
Roy Williams needs to stop making guarantees. - Does Dallas have a chance to beat the Saints this weekend? Yes. Is it a must win for Dallas? Absolutely. But Roy Williams needs to watch it. The Saints are undefeated and have already said they are playing for 16-0. They didn't need this extra motivation. Didn't this guy once guarantee the Lions would win 10 games in a season? I don't think the Lions won ten games during his tenure with the team.
Oregon State has a pair, as well as the rest of the best of the PAC-10. - No cupcakes for them next year. Oregon State has agreed to play BCS-busters and college football darlings Boise State and Texas Christian next season. In fact, they are going to open against TCU in the new Jerry Jones shrine, otherwise known as Cowboys Stadium. This is something the good teams in the PAC-10 do more than any other conference. They agree to play real schools, not the UC-Santa Cruz Banana Slugs or Roast Beef State. This will be good for Oregon State and good for the schools they are playing. It lends legitimacy to Boise State's and TCU's schedule.
The Oakland Raiders quarterback situation is bad.- Really bad. We all know JaMarcus Russell is a huge bust and probably won't be back next year. (He is due $15M in salary and bonuses if he plays next season. There's no way the Raiders pay that.) Bruce "The Plumber" Gradkowski is injured and won't play this week. This Sunday the Raiders are going to start Charlie Frye at quarterback. Remember him? In 2007 he "won" the quarterback "battle" in Cleveland over Derek Anderson and rookie Brady Quinn. He started the first regular season game and was pulled in less time than it takes Greg Oden to suffer a season-ending knee injury. The Raiders have also just signed J.P. Losman to "bolster" their quarterbacking corps. Losman was most recently seen leading the Rancho Cucamonga Snake Charmers to a United Football League title. (Actually, it was the Las Vegas Locomotives. But who knew that...other than me?)
And last, not a thing a I learned, but a bit of wild speculation. A bold prediction you won't get anywhere else. - Jim Fassel might be on his way to the Raiders. He is currently the head coach of the Rancho Cuca...I mean Las Vegas Locomotives. His championship QB just signed with Oakland. The Raiders special teams coach? A guy named John Fassel. Yup, Jim's son. I'm not saying he's a lock to go, but there sure are some familiar faces.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Gone But Not Forgotten
He was the poster child for the next generation's athlete. A superb combination of size, speed, instinct, heart and athletic ability. He scoured the field like a hawk, searching for the next opponent to pulverize. Then, as quickly as he would close on an opposing receiver, the world lost Sean Taylor at the age of 24 and, much like the aftermath from one of his trademark hits, all that was left were loud gasps and pain.
When Sean Taylor was murdered in November of 2007, it felt more like deja vu than a national sports tragedy. After all, we were just a few years removed from the slaying of fellow defensive back Darrent Williams outside of a Denver nightclub after a New Year's party. Taylor's death, especially in wake of the death of Williams, opened up a nationwide debate about the means athletes should take to protect themselves from a country of gun-toting loons. There was a feature in ESPN Magazine shortly after with interviews from players about the measures they have now feel the need to take in wake of Taylor's murder. As for on the field, the Redskins honored Taylor by having the defense line up a man short in the backfield(which the Bills exploited).
Certainly, in the D.C. area, nobody would say that Sean Taylor's death has been forgotten. FedEx Field is still packed with Redskins fans adorned in #21 jerseys or T-Shirts with Taylor's likeness on it, but the turn of events that followed Taylor's murder put what should have been this generation's Len Bias on the back burner. Within the first year after Taylor's death, the shooting of Jaguars' offensive lineman Richard Collier happened, then Plaxico Burress' Cheddar Bob impression happened, then Donte Stallworth's DUI manslaughter happened, then the murder of Steve McNair and, while not exactly a sports story, there was the passing of Michael Jackson. All of those events along with the never-ending saga of Michael Vick's dogfighting drama gave the world something to think about other than the loss of what could have been a Hall of Fame safety.
Two years later, Taylor's name hardly comes up amongst sports' greatest tragedies, mainly because society tends not dwell too long on a person's death(unless that person is Michael Jackson, of course.) and also because McNair and Collier and Burress had replaced Taylor as the poster children for gun violence and its effects on sports figures much like the shock of Taylor's death usurped Williams'. Perhaps never more so than this season has Taylor been so sorely missed by the Redskins ON the field, as his replacement (fellow first round pick LaRon Landry) has certainly kept the Taylor mantle of bone-jarring hits alive but has failed to be as big a factor in pass coverage as his predecessor.
In a sports decade that will inevitably be remembered for the prevalence of steroids in baseball, the unsavory trysts of Kobe Bryant/Ben Roethlisberger/Tiger Woods, the greatness of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the first Red Sox title in 86 years and the emergence of MMA, let us all take some time to remember a man who was meant to leave a large impact on the football field but left his greatest dent off of it.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Milk Carton All-Star of the Decade....2000-2009
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Week 14 Picks, cont.
If you had taken Gabe's picks to your bookie then you would still be eating. Gabe went 8-8 so you would have only lost the vig.
On the bright side, we have both hit 100 in the win column this week.
So far this week we are both 0-1. (Thank you Big Ben. How do you get sacked by the Browns 8 times? The quarterback for Roast Beef St. wouldn't get sacked by the Browns 8 times.)
Last Week: Gabe: 8-8 Dave: 5-11
This Week so far: Both 0-1
Season totals: Gabe: 105-84-1 Dave: 100-89-1
On to the rest of Week 14!
Denver (+7) at Indianapolis
Gabe: Indianapolis - Peyton Manning might be the greatest football mind not named Bill Walsh we've had the pleasure watching. Denver, for some reason, seems to not want to use Brandon Marshall the way they could. I think Indy will keep winning until they lock up home-field advantage and they start to coast. Indy wins by 10.
Dave: Denver - Colts seem to play each week down to the wire and the Broncos are a tricky enough team to give them fits. I've been saying it for weeks and have been looking like an idiot, but Indy is bound for a let down eventually, so why not against a desperate Broncos team who has at least some life on D? Colts by 3.
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
Gabe: Minnesota - This is a huge match-up. Cincy needs to win this game to prove they really are one of the best teams in the AFC. Minnesota needs to win to keep pace with New Orleans. I think the difference is going to be Minnesota's defense. They are going to make the Bengals more one-dimensional than they already are. The Bengals won't win if the Carson Palmer has to throw the ball 50 times. Minnesota by a touchdown.
Dave: Cincinnati: Same rules apply as last week for Minnesota when they played Arizona. Cincy is stout on run D, which means Brett Favre will have to win this one on his own and we know how Favre plays in December. Plus, Jonathan Joesph and Leon Hall(I feel like I'm gonna repeat myself alot this week) are the best cornerback tandem you've never heard of, which means we'll see another Favre 3-INT performance. Bengals not as explosive on offense as 'Zona but their grind-it-out style will limit possessions for Minnesota, making Favre's TOs more costly. Bengals by 6.
New York Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay
Gabe: New York - The Bucs are showing some signs of life and are starting to play well under QB Josh Freeman. But...the Jets defense will keep the youngsters in check. I wish I had the onions to take the push, but I think the Jets will win by 4.
Dave: Jets - Josh Freeman threw 5 picks(at least 3 of which in the red zone) against a Carolina team that quit a month ago. Now, he gets Darrelle Revis and a Jets team that's actually fighting for a playoff spot. The Sanchize is sitting this one out, which actually makes me like Gang Green more. Jets by 9.
Buffalo (pk) at Kansas City
Gabe: Kansas City - I'm taking KC simply because they are at home. KC is on the way up and no one knows what to expect out of Buffalo. Buffalo has no run defense and a very inconsistent running game. KC has a rise star in RB Jamaal Charles. KC by 3 because of home field.
Dave: Kansas City - I agree here with Gabe. Last week's egg-laying not included, the Chiefs are usually money at home in the winter months and Buffalo is inept enough to continue that trend. Chiefs by 6.....reluctantly.
Green Bay (-3) at Chicago
Gabe: Green Bay - The Packers are playing inspired football right now. Aaron Rodgers is probably the best quarterback in the league not named Brees, Brady, or P. Manning. Chicago has faded and faded fast. Jay Cutler is not as good as advertised. That being said, this is a division game so it is going to be hard fought. Packers by 7.
Dave: Green Bay - Playing it dangerous here. Packers are 4-0 in the last 4 games I've picked against them, so this will be a test to that trend here. Bears are on their last legs. Lovie Smith feels Mike Shanahan breathing on the back of his neck. Jay Cutler has become the most reverred man in Chi-Town since Al Capone. The defense is Charmin soft. On the flip side, the Packers look like a deep sleeper come playoff time, as they finally found out how to protect Aaron Rodgers AND muster a pass rush. So, hopefully, this isn't jinxing them, but Packers by 10.
New Orleans (-10) at Atlanta
Gabe: New Orleans - The Saints learned all the lessons of a loss and still got the W last week in Washington. The Falcons are hurt at all the key positions on offense. They have zero pass defense. One of their best D-lineman just got popped for pot possession. Drew Brees and the Saints win huge and roll themselves (and further my fantasy team, The Michael Scott Paper Co.) into the playoffs.
Dave: New Orleans - Too many big names missing for Atlanta and the Saints need to rebound from last week's lackluster(yet winning) performance. Saints by 14.
Detroit (+13.5) at Baltimore
Gabe: Detroit - The Lions have great players on offense. The Baltimore defense is getting old and slower, but they can still light it up when they need to. I think the Baltimore D steps up and keeps Megatron and Kevin Smif in check. I think Baltimore wins, but by less than 14.
Dave: Baltimore - Is it weird that I can see Detroit covering if they WEREN'T starting Daunte Culpepper? Culpepper's happy feet will kill the Lions against a Baltimore defense that isn't as good as it used to be(especially with Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs out again) but are still potent. I think Culpepper blows this one and goes back into retirement and Baltimore's offense led by Ray Rice(FROM! RUTGERS!) goes nuts on the Lions' swiss cheese D. Baltimore by 17.
Miami (+2.5) at Jacksonville
Gabe: Miami - Miami is playing great football right now. They still have a good chance to make the playoffs, if they win out. Truthfully, I don't know why Miami is the underdog in this game. I think they run away with this win. Miami by 10.
Dave: Jacksonville - Because I'm down big to Gabe and, in 14 weeks, I still haven't figured these two teams out.
Carolina (+13) at New England
Gabe: Carolina - There is something wrong with Tom Brady. He is playing scared. He looks very jumpy in the pocket. It came out late this week that he is hurt. He is the key to the Pats winning. I think New England still wins, but only by a touchdown.
Dave: Patriots - There IS something off about Tom Brady, that much is true. In fact, the whole Patriots organazation hasn't been right since Belichick's brainless call on 4th and 2 against Indy almost a month ago. However, the Pats know what's at stake here. Miami and New York both have winnable games, so New England knows it has to unleash hell here. Carolina has been the No Show Team of the Year and the Pats are pissed, so I like them to cover. Pats by 16.
Seattle (+6.5) at Houston
Gabe: Houston - Seattle stinks and has probably packed it in for this year. Houston is still really dangerous on offense. I think Houston wins big.
Dave: Seattle - Two months ago, Gabe and I circled this game as the chance for us to go head-to-head on Sportstalkbuzz. Now? Gabe's stopped writing for about a month and I might have subconciously quit as well. Regardless, I have a hard time getting behind Houston and, after they upset SF and made me look stupid last week, I have a harder time betting against Seattle. A touchdown difference is a bit steep but I'll take it. 'Hawks by 7.
St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee
Gabe: Tennessee - Three words: Chris "Mufuckin'" Johnson. Done and done. Tennessee wins by 17.
Dave: Tennessee - You don't think the Rams are going to blow their chance at the man who SHOULD have won the Heisman, Ndomakong Suh, by putting up a fight against the Titans here, do you? Titans pull off the shutout, win by 28.
Washington (-1) at Oakland
Gabe: Oakland - This is exactly the kind of game Washington always loses. They played really well against the Saints last week and are feeling great about themselves, so now they'll travel and lose to one of the worst teams in the league. To be fair, Oakland seems to be putting things together and playing pretty well. I think the Raiders win by a touchdown.
Dave: Oakland - Last week's win against Pittsburgh would have looked more impressive if Big Ben and company didn't fall off their motorcycle again against Cleveland a couple days ago. That being said, nobody wins in this game. If there ever was a good chance at picking a tie, this is it. I think Oakland puts Nnamdi Asomugha against the Redskins' new weapon, Devin Thomas, and shut down the 'Skins at home. Raiders by 3.
San Diego (+3) at Dallas
Gabe: San Diego - Dallas falls apart in December and everyone knows it, but here's a stat for you...San Diego hasn't lost a game in December in over three seasons. Plus, San Diego is playing out of their minds right now and is the last team you want to see in the playoffs in the AFC. Chargers win by 10.
Dave: Chargers - It's not just that it's December, it's that the Chargers, to me, are the best team in AFC and their passing attack is going to be too much for a battered Cowboys' secondary. It also helps that SD flew in some fermeldahyde to preserve the rotting corpse of LT for at least a few more weeks. Chargers by 13.
Philadelphia (+1) at New York Giants
Gabe: Philadelphia - I actually grimaced when typing this pick. I would love to take my Giants in this spot, but it ain't happening. The Giants got lucky on big plays last week. Philadelphia is a better team. It will be hard fought, I hope, but in the end Philly wins by a touchdown.
Dave: Giants - Again, I'm down big and if I have to pick one of these teams to shit the bed, I'll go with Philly who is beat up on O. Giants by 6.
Arizona (-3.5) at San Francisco
Gabe: Arizona - Arizona is to the NFC what San Diego is the AFC...they are the talented team that no one wants to see late in the year or in the playoffs. I think they build on last week and win by 7.
Dave: Arizona - San Fran shot down all its momentum by choking against Seattle. Arizona sees the chance to close out the division here on Monday night and, after upsetting Benedict Favre and the Vikes, momentum has swung to their side. Cards by 10.
Friday, December 11, 2009
A Few Words About the Heisman
But just in case you don't, here you are:
Mark Ingram, Running Back, Alabama
Toby Gerhart, Running Back, Stanford
Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Florida
Colt McCoy, Quarterback, Texas
Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle, Nebraska
That's right people...a white running back and defensive tackle are among the finalists.
Here is why I think the Heisman Award is a joke. It is voted on by college football writers and former Heisman winners. So, most of the voting is done by beat writers who usually cover one team. Consequently, these writers know about the team they cover and the conference in which that team plays, but not much else.
And remember, these voters can put down any three names they want. The five finalists are not the only players eligible for the award; they are just the players most likely to win based on early voting.
That means there could be lots of bias and ignorance. Most of these writers lean towards these biases. Or worse, they use some goofy logic like - "He's the best player on the best team." or "He had that Heisman moment." Even my local paper's UVA beat writer, Jay Jenkins, is guilty of this. He said today on the radio that he voted Mark Ingram first even though he only watched Ingram play twice. He voted C.J. Spiller second because he has seen Spiller play all year while covering the ACC, and Colt McCoy third because he voted McCoy first last year. Yeah that's right, a sentimental pick for the most important award in college football. He also said he wouldn't put Suh on the ballot because he plays defense...what a joke.
Whatever happened to just voting for the best football player? Not the guy with the best numbers, or the guy on the best team, or the guy who made the best play. Just the best player.
All that being said, I figured I'd make my picks. I'm just as informed as these knuckleheads, if not more because I've actually played the game.
If I had a ballot it would look like this:
3. Toby Gerhart - I watched him play last weekend. This kid looked unstoppable, and almost untacklable. He is strong and fast. He hits hard. He plays hard. Now, I said something before about voting for the guy with the best numbers. I think voting for a guy simply because he has the best numbers is lazy, but the numbers should be taken into account, at least a little. Gerhart leads the NCAA FBS in rushing yards and touchdowns. And he plays for Standford! He is the only player of note on Stanford's team, all the defenses focus on him, and he still went for over 1700 yards and 26 touchdowns. That's bad ass.
2. Ndamukong Suh - I haven't seen much Nebraska football this year so I consulted my friend Henri. Henri is one of the smartest football fans I know - he's one of the flat-out smartest people I know. He is also one of the few Nebraska fans I know personally, so I think that makes him uniquely qualified to give an opinion on Suh. He said Suh plays at another level. For three years he has been the most dominant lineman on the field in every game he played. I think Suh might get some consideration, even though he plays defense, because he has great numbers and had a huge game against Texas in the Big 12 Championship game. (82(!) tackles for the season, 12 sacks, 4 sacks in the Championship game.)
1. Mark Ingram - Ingram plays in the toughest conference in college football and still made it look easy. In the biggest game of the year for Alabama, against undefeated, no. 1, holders of a 22-game winning streak, Florida in the SEC title game, he ran for 3 touchdowns after suffering a hip pointer the week before. (That game will go a long way to him winning. It got an 11.8 share. That means a lot of people watched.) He was among the leaders in FCS in rushing yards and touchdowns and he did it playing against SEC defenses. I think he was clearly the best player this year.
There are my picks, but, given my track record of picking and curses I think I've just guaranteed Colt McCoy will win the award.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Week 14 Picks.....
Anyway, since we fancy ourselves as a sports website, I guess we have to pick this steaming pile of cow dung known as Browns-Steelers(I'd much rather pick the spread on the number of kills I will get on Call of Duty, which is what I will be doing instead of watching Eric Mangini shit his pants every time Brady Quinn drops back to pass).
Steelers(-10) at Browns
Dave: Steelers - If Pittsburgh were playing any other team, literally ANY OTHER TEAM, I'd pick the underdog here, but Cleveland has a harder time moving the ball than most senior citizens have moving their bowels. Plus, fresh off of losing three straight(including two to NFL superpowers like Kansas City and Oakland), the Steel Curtian will be coming for blood, as they don't want to be embarrassed by the worst team in football on semi-national television(Note: More people have the Spice Channel than NFL Network). The semi-competence of Brady Quinn comes to an end here, as "WE WANT CLAUSEN" chants fill the air by the end of the national anthem. Steelers by 14. (P.S. Dear NFL, how many games does Cleveland have to lose before they convince you that they should never be on primetime? The Seahawks have 5x as many wins as the Browns and have been on national television a total of 0 times. Look, the Browns bandwagon fell apart last October, you don't have to throw a pity party for the city of Cleveland by featuring their worthless football team on cable TV)
Gabe: Steelers - The Steelers need this game, badly. They are currently 6-6 and will most likely need to win out to make the playoffs. I think that fact will have Pittsburgh highly motivated. The other big factor in this game is the weather. It is going to be cold and really windy. Like 30 mph winds windy. Like 45 mph wind gusts windy. That is going to neutralize both passing games. So this game is essentially a match-up of running games versus defenses. Give me Rashard Mendenhall against Cleveland over whatever garbage the Browns are throwing out there against Pittsburgh's D. I think the Steelers D flirts with the shutout and the Steelers grind out a big win, 20-3.
Monday, December 7, 2009
UVA Takes the Easy Way Out
This afternoon at 1pm UVA introduced Mike London as their new head football coach.
And it was a cop out move.
(Disclaimer: The only reason I am saying anything about this hire because it is hyper-local. I can't turn on my radio or TV to any local station without hearing about it.)
On the surface it looks like UVA made the right decision. London is a UVA alum. He was a defensive coordinator on former head coach Al Groh's staff. He has had much success in his only head coaching position, leading Richmond to an FCS national title in his first year there, at a school that, like UVA, has high academic standards.
The hire makes almost perfect sense. UVA was watching one of their own succeed at a school just 65 miles down I-64. Of course they would want to give him a shot.
But those are exactly the reasons that make this an easy, and lazy, choice. UVA needed to make a splash. It seemed like they knew that too. Athletic Director Craig Littlepage said last week that the school was going to do a nationwide search for Al Groh's replacement. I thought they were going to look for a guy who has had some college success, on the FBS level. I thought maybe they would try to get a guy with some NFL ties, like Groh, to help funnel UVA players to the NFL. I guess he meant nationwide, as long as he could make the round trip on less than one tank of gas.
More than anything, I thought they were going to take their time and find a guy who could put butts in the seats again. Mike London fits every part of the profile UVA needed. He won as a head coach. He won at school with high academic standards. He is a defensive coach. He is local and knows central and eastern Virginia, so he should be able to recruit well. But his name doesn't pop. UVA needed everything Mike London is as coach, but they needed a name who brings excitement to the fan base even more. UVA has been losing the fans for two years now. Their attendance has steadily declined during that time. The most important task for the new coach is to re-energize the fan base and fill Scott Stadium again.
I thought going with London was a cost saving measure. A nationwide search would have been expensive and probably would have yielded an expensive coach. Then I found out they are going to pay London $1.7 million a year. For that money they could have gotten a proven coach. Here's a list of some of the coaches in the NCAA who make less than $1.7M a year...Jim Leavitt at South Florida...Chip Kelly at Oregon...Chris Petersen at Boise State...Dave Wannstedt at Pitt...Joe Paterno(!) at Penn State...Nuff said.
Here's the thing, the UVA head coaching job should be an attractive position. The school obviously has money that they are willing to spend. They have great facilities. When properly motivated they have a rabid fan base. Charlottesville is a great town in which to live and work. (I believe my authority on that last sentence is not debatable.) Plus, C'Ville is kind of isolated. You have to want to get here to get here. If you win at UVA you can be a rock star in this town. It's one of those big fish in a small pond deals. (Well, medium-sized pond. You would still have to compete with John Grisham, Howie Long, and that guy named Dave.) The school should be able to attract a big-name coach.
Here's another thing. London is not as proven a coach as it might seem. Yes, he won a national title at Richmond, but it was in his first year when he had 16 returning starters. That was basically Dave Clawson's team. This year they lost in the playoffs to perennial FCS power Appalachian State. He has not yet shown that he can have sustained success. To be fair, he hasn't had the chance, but that still means he is unproven.
We also don't know what he'll be as a recruiter. It seems he has all of the tools to succeed in recruiting in Virginia, but, he is going to have to compete with Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Maryland, and West Virginia on a regular basis for great local talent. Plus, Penn State, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee have been known to venture into the Old Dominion to fill their squads.
To me though, there is one huge reason why London was hired, and hired so quickly. The school is also searching for a new president, so they needed to get the football coach position filled fast. This hire makes sense, but it was the easy route to take.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Week 13 Picks cont...
LAST WEEK: Gabe: 6-9-1, Dave: 5-10-1
SEASON: Gabe 97-76-1, Dave: 95-78-1
THIS WEEK: Gabe 1-0, Dave 1-0
Broncos(-4.5) at Chiefs
Dave: Chiefs - The Chiefs have screwed me all season, whether it be picking them in an upset(like last week against SD) or picking them to get steam-rolled(two weeks ago against Pittsburgh). So, with my selection of KC here, that means the Broncos should win this one by 14. However, the Broncos are 1-16 lifetime in December at Arrowhead and, Thanksgiving's dismantling of Gabe's Giants not withstanding, I'm still not very impressed with Josh McDaniels' boys. I like the emergence of Jamaal Charles and Chris Chambers here, not enough to call for the upset, but perhaps to only lose by a field goal.
Gabe: Broncos - I think the Broncos will have momentum after smoking the Giants. They'll have had 10 days to prepare for the lowly Chiefs. I think the Broncos roll and win by 10.
Raiders (+14.5) at Steelers
Dave: Raiders - Oddly enough, I'd like Pittsburgh to cover here if they went with Dennis Dixon over a woozy Big Ben. You don't just step in a couple weeks after your fourth concussion and go back to putting up 400-yard games. The Steelers have been solid running the ball with Rashard Mendenhall and that takes pressure off Ben and the passing game, but the Raiders are pesky(as proven in wins over Philly and Cincy) and Nnamdi Asomugha is good enough corner to make Big Ben pay if for some reason his dizziness forces him to throw Nnamdi's way. I like the Steelers here, but it's hard to like them more than two touchdowns when their QB has half his wits. Steelers by 13.
Gabe: Steelers - The big reason I am taking the Steelers here is because of the travel. The lack of success of West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast is well documented. The Steelers need this win to stay in the playoff hunt. I think the Steelers make a statement and win by 17.
Houston (PK) at Jacksonville
Dave: Houston - Jacksonville might be the worst team that might make the playoffs in NFL history. They're horrible against the pass because their pass rush is non-existent and that doesn't help against Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Texans have been a huge bust thanks to their Jason Biggs-like inability to close and it's easy to give the Jags the edge because their at home and fighting for a playoff spot, but this season has been so nutty, you have to expect a letdown somewhere. I reluctantly like Houston here by a touchdown.Gabe: Houston - The last time these teams played Matt Schaub threw for about 1100 yards and Mojo D ran for about 640 yards (those numbers may be exaggerated.) Since then the Texans have become the best run defending team in the league. Even the 150 yards they gave up to Chris Johnson last week was little more than half of the total he had the first time they played this season. The Jags still have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I think the Texans contain Mojo and Schaub goes nuts again. Texans win by 7.
Titans (+6.5) at Colts
Dave: Titans - We keep waiting for the Colts to finally fall and it never happens. Do I think it happens against red-hot Tennessee? No. Do I think Vince Young can make it close against a beat-up Colts defense? Sure. Peyton Manning, who is intentionally out to make me take back my Drew Brees MVP pick, has not been the same QB he was in first month but he's still been pretty good. However, the Titans D has also improved as their QB has, and I think they frustrate Manning into one of those hard to watch 16-13 games, with Indy on top.
Gabe: Titans - I'll say it again, I'm picking up what the Titans are putting down. The Colts have been winning close games and getting by because of Peyton Manning and his laser rocket arm. Vince Young has always had a strong arm and he is all of a sudden a good quarterback. I think Young will do well against the Colts beat-up secondary and Chris Johnson will do his thing. I like the Titans for the outright win in my....wait for it...Upset Special!!
Eagles (-5.5) at Falcons
Dave: Eagles - No Matt Ryan, No Michael Turner for the Dirty Birds. That's bad news facing a Eagles team that is desperately trying to stay afloat in the NFC East. Also, in the Storylines That Get Forgotten Because They Happened The Same Year As Brett Favre's HGH-Addled Lambeau Return: Mike Vick returns to Atlanta for the first time since going to prison. I say Vick makes a play or two and the Eagles win this one going away. Eagles by 14.
Gabe: Eagles - The Falcons are really beat up. The Eagles have a lot to play for. Mike Vick comes back to Atlanta, which is not really getting a lot of play. I think the Eagles will roll, and win by 10.
Lions (+13) at Bengals
Dave: Lions -I like Matthew Stafford. I think he has great moxie and poise and his cannon arm will complement Calvin Johnson for as long as the two remain together. That being said, he should have been sipping Gatorade by halftime on Turkey Day. With the game out of reach, there was no excuse for Stafford to go through unneeded punishment against a hungry Packers D. Now, as for this week, I see Stafford throwing a few to the other team here as he's facing the underrated corner tandem of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joesph. So why do I like the Lions? Because the Bengals' offense doesn't have the explosiveness to warrant a 13-point spread, even with Cedric Benson back. Bengals grind out another W, win by 10.
Gabe: Bengals - I think the Bengals have too much offense. They have too much talent and are going to grind the ball. The big reason why I like the Bengals to cover this big spread is their defense. They have a great front seven and put lots of pressure on opposing qb's. I think the Bengals win by 17.
Saints(-9.5) at Redskins
Dave: Redskins - Picking the Chiefs, Lions, Raiders and Redskins in the same week? I must be asking for an ass-whooping! Look, I don't think Washington stops the streaking Saints here, but the Redskins are a better team at home and with the weather being a wee bit snowy, that will limit Drew Brees a little bit and force him to use the run game a little more. Remember, the Saints squeaked by St. Louis in a game they should have routed. So I like N.O. here, but only by 6.
Gabe: Redskins - Who has the no. 2 defense, in terms of yards allowed, in the NFL? The Washington Redskins. This is the type of game for which, historically, the Redskins get themselves hyped. They have played poorly all season and now get a chance to flex their muscle late in the year, at home, against a good team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Skins win straight-up, so I'll take them to beat the spread.
Bucs(+5) at Panthers
Dave: Bucs - Yup, picking the Bucs here, too. Jake Delhomme is out(which is actually a good thing) and DeAngelo Williams is hurt(which is a bad thing). Yes, the Bucs suck hard. Yes, the Panthers are at home. But I like Josh Freeman more than I like Matt Moore. Plus, Cadillac Williams went for nearly 80 yards and a score on this Panthers D last time. The Panthers have been the kings of Letdown City, so I like Tampa for the upset here......and I also like me to increase my deficit to Gabe by about 5 games by Tuesday.
Gabe: Panters - The Bucs stink. Jake Delhomme isn't playing so Steve Smith might actually catch more than two passes this week. Jonathan Stewart will run wild against the Bucs. Plus Carolina is at home. The Cats win by 9.
Rams (+9.5) at Bears
Dave: Bears - Almost got cute and took St. Louis here, but I think this is the week we see Jay Cutler and company put it all together. They spent the week getting called out by injured linebacker Brian Urlacher and, with Mike Shanahan breathing down Lovie Smith's neck, I think they take the chains off the offense and let 'er rip. Big games from Forte and Cutler, and Steven Jackson for that matter. Bears by 17.
Gabe: Rams - I am going to get cute. Steven Jackson is playing well right now. The Bears aren't a team to step-up in the face of adversity, much less the psychological mine-field that comes along with the Shananhan rumors. Cutler can throw 4 INT's against anyone. I don't think the Rams win outright, but they keep it close. Bears by 7.
Chargers (-14) at Browns
Dave: Chargers - If you listen closely, you can hear small children in Indonesia stitching together a Colt McCoy Browns jersey.........SD by 21. (P.S. Each week, the Chargers make my SB pick look good.)
Gabe: Chargers - San Diego is playing great. The Browns are the 4th best team in Ohio behind the Bengels, Bearcats, and Buckeyes. (Why do all major sports teams in Ohio start their team nicknames with B?) The Chargers win huge.
49ers (PK) at Seahawks
Dave: 49ers - Prediction: Niners overcome the 2-game hole to Arizona and win the NFC West. With Arizona playing Minnesota and the Niners getting a gimme here against Seattle, that sets up the possibility of SF taking the division lead if they can beat the Cards(which they already did IN ARIZONA in Week 1) on Monday night next week. The schedule the rest of the way? After next week's title fight, SF travels to Philly, then feasts on Detroit and St. Louis. Same goes for Arizona, except instead of Philly, they get a playoff-hunting Green Bay in Week 17. Niners would win the tiebreaker if they enter next Tuesday tied and I can't see either team losing more than once after next Monday. As for this week's game, Seahawks suck, Niners don't. Niners by 9.Gabe: 49ers - Read the last sentence of what Dave wrote - the Seahawks suck, the Niners don't. Niners win by a touchdown.
Vikings (-3) at Cardinals
Dave: Vikings - Same rules apply for a woozy Kurt Warner that apply to Big Ben. You don't just recover from a concussion in a week and a half and step back onto the field and zing bullets. In the case of the Cardinals, they won't be able to turn to the run game against the Williams Wall. Plus, as much as we all would like to see Benedict Favre implode, I'm afraid the steroids haven't worn off yet. Vikings speed past Arizona here(Get it? Speed? Because AP and Berrian.....oh, nevermind!), win by 10.
Gabe: Vikings - I want to know why this line is only 3. The Vikings are great on every side of the ball. Favre, AP, Berrian, Rice, and Harvin are going to run all over the Cardinals defense. The Williams wall and Jared Allen are going have a field day against whoever is under center for Arizona. The Vikings roll and win by 14.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants
Dave: Cowboys - Tough game. Giants are finished and the Cowboys suck in December. From what I'm hearing, it's not expected to be typical Jersey weather for this one, which means we won't get to see Romo sucking it up in the snow(nor do we get to see Eli's "bullet passes" deflate in the Meadowlands wind). The two biggest proponents to the Giants win over Dallas last time(Kenny Phillips and Antonio Pierce) are done for the season and all signs point to Eli joining them(if not by halftime, certainly after they lose this one and fall out of the playoff hunt). I'd love to see the Cowboys crumble, but this Giants team is an enigma. Cowboys by 6.
Gabe: Cowboys - Enigma. That is the perfect word to characterize this game. The Cowboys suck in December, especially outdoors. Both teams need this win. The Giants might already be packing it in for the season though. They beat the Cowboys earlier in the year, but like Dave said, the key proponents of that win are hurt. So what wins out? The Giants being done. The Cowboys still want to play, the Giants don't. As much as it hurts, the Cowboys win by 10.
Patriots (-4) at Dolphins
Dave: Patriots - We keep waiting for Belichick to respond to the criticism with a trademark steamrolling of some lowly opponent. Miami normally plays New England tough but that's usually with Ronnie Brown in the lineup(which, this time, he is not). Brady doesn't look all the way back from his knee blow out and the Dolphins are tough defensively so this can be a trap, but I just can't see The Hoodie dropping two straight with all the fire he's come under. Pats by 6.
Gabe: Dolphins - Brady looks skittish on certain throws, at least that is what the ESPN NFL match-up show tells me. If they know it, then Parcells knows it, and the rest of the Dolphins know it. The game is in Miami so there will be an effect no one ever talks about...cold weather teams getting gassed in the heat. I think Miami pressures Brady and does just enough to win. Miami by 3.
Ravens(+3) at Packers
Dave: Ravens - Purely selfish pick here. Packers are 3-0 when I pick against them and my boys need a win here. To be more specific, while the Packers have done a better job of protecting Aaron Rodgers and this Ravens D is very susceptible to the pass, they're still dangerous. Ray Rice(FROM: RUTGERS!) makes plays on the ground and through the air and Joe Flacco is better than he's played lately. Ravens by 3.
Gabe: Packers - I don't know why really...except that whenever Dave picks against the Pack, they win, and usually big. Ummm...apparently Aaron Rodgers plays well on third down (thanks again NFL Match-Up), and the game is in Lambeau. Packers by 4.