Sunday, December 20, 2009

Week 15 Picks cont....

If my picks would have sucked any harder last week, it would have collapsed a lung. For the second week in a row, I went a piss-poor 5-11. Gabe, on the other hand, managed to notch as many wins as I had in the past two weeks with an amazing 10-6. 10 turns out to be the magic number here as Gabe has now increased his lead that much in our pick showdown after I took him to the woodshed for the first two months. On the bright side for me, I gained a game on the Big Puerto Rican by going 1-1 in the Pre-Sunday games(compared to his big Squa-doosh), which means I only need to beat him by 9 this week to square things up heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Speaking of Gabe, last night's Cowboys upset over the Saints shocked him so much that he is temporarily speechless. So, while I'd love to channel my inner Gabe and talk about guys "gettin' nice", declare a few Upset Specials and drop some random "Drew Breeeeeeeeees!" into his commentary section.....I think we'll put his picks up and leave the speech-ifying for his return. Here goes nothing:

Last Week: (Dave: 5-11, Gabe 10-6)
Season: (Dave: 105-100-1, Gabe: 115-90-1)
This Week: (Dave: 1-1, Gabe 0-2)

Packers(+2) at Steelers

Dave: Steelers - For two reasons here: 1. In the first time I've picked them to win in a month, the Packers played things a little too close against Chicago for my liking and 2. Even after their biggest win in a long time, that didn't stop me from antagonizing Cowboys fans on Facebook until 3 A.M., so I'm sure karma is going to come back to bite me in the ass. Plus, I just can't see the champs losing six straight, especially a must-win at home. So, I'll take Steelers by 3.

Gabe: Packers

Dolphins(+5) at Titans

Dave: Titans - I'm getting this from Hank Greenberg: Titans have covered every game at home since re-emerging in the playoff picture. While I can see Miami's D making things tough for Chris Johnson on the ground(which, for my big money fantasy hopes, I'm praying that's not the case), CJ is still a factor in the passing game. I think this will be one of the uglier games we'll see all year but I like the newfound explosiveness of this Titans offense. Titans by 7.

Gabe: Titans

Patriots(-7) at Bills

Dave: Bills - The Patriots haven't won a true road game all season(their one road win came against lowly Tampa Bay......in London.) and, the last time these two met, the Bills were a Leodis McKelvin botched kickoff away from pulling off the upset. On top of that, the Pats' secondary is a mess and T.O. is playing for a new contract. Plus, Brady's banged up and Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork are sitting this one out. I like Buffalo for the.....wait for it....Upset Special(See, I told you I can channel my inner Gabe). Bills by 3.

Gabe: Patriots

Cardinals(-14) at Lions

Dave: Cardinals - A two touchdown spread is a bit much for a team that will see its biggest weapon, Larry Fitzgerald, going at half-speed. That being said, the Cardinals are surprisingly money on the road and this same Lions defense got torched by an anemic Ravens offense last week. Kevin Smith is done for the year and Calvin Johnson isn't completely right, so I think Arizona big....like 21 points big.

Gabe: Lions

49ers(+8) at Eagles

Dave: Niners - Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm hyperventilating over the Niners big win Monday night against Arizona. It's more that Philly got pounded by two feet of snow, which means the ground is slippery, which means their fast-break offense will suffer a bit and they'll have to run a little more than usual. The Niners are stout on defense and, while the Eagles know Dallas is a little close to them to lose this one, I can't see SF getting blown out here. So I'll take Philly, but by only 6.

Gabe: Eagles

Falcons(+7) at Jets

Dave: Falcons- I'll admit this is a desperation pick because I'm down big to Gabe, but it's not a stretch when you look deeper. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan WILL play for Atlanta(though at what capacity, we don't know.) and, much like in Philly, the snowy field will play a factor on offense for both teams. Granted, not being able to throw is customary for the Jets when they start Mark Sanchez, but without the chance to exploit Atlanta's terrible pass D, this game comes down to whether they can stop 240-pound Mike Turner(albeit at 80%) as well as Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood. I think the winter wonderland will make a lot of the East Coast games close and, eventhough the Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and the Jets aren't, I'll take ATL for the win. Falcons by 6.

Bears(+11) at Ravens

Dave: Bears - Broken record alert: Snow is going to affect offenses playing on the East Coast. Now, normally snowy weather means the better run game will win it(which would be advantage: Ravens) and I still think that holds true....BUT if any QB knows how to sling it in the snow, it's Jay Cutler and the Bears were able to keep it close against a Packers team that is much better than Baltimore. SO...I like the Ravens but I think the Bears play it safe with a lot of dump offs to Matt Forte and short passes to Greg Olsen and keeps an injured Ravens D on the field a lot and makes this game closer than that ridiculous 11-point spread. Ravens by a touchdown...though a Bears win wouldn't shock me.

Gabe: Ravens

Browns(-2.5) at Chiefs

Dave: Chiefs - It seems like the Chiefs have been playing at Arrowhead for the last two months, doesn't it? Anyway, they get Dwayne Bowe back, which boosts an offense that hasn't had a real playmaker outside of Jamaal Charles in Bowe's absence. Brady Quinn has played better in the last couple weeks but, if your the Browns, why ruin a chance at Ndomakong Suh with another meaningless win? Browns flop here and Chiefs win it by 3.

Gabe: Chiefs

Texans(-14) at Rams

Dave: Texans - Houston proved it can still whoop on a bad team when it wants to with their curb-stomping of Seattle last week. That probably means they'll shit the bed against the Rams and not cover the spread, but for fantasy purposes, I'm going with the thought process that Matt Schaub and Andre 3000 will have a field day here. Plus, the Rams are trotting out Keith Null against a decent Texans D......not good. Texans by 17.

Gabe: Texans

Bengals(+7) at Chargers

Dave: Chargers - You want to think that Chad Ochocinco will play the game of his life in memory of fallen teammate Chris Henry. That very well may happen. The Bengals proved after the loss of DC Mike Zimmer's wife that they can be motivated by tragedy and pull off a big win. However, that game was against Baltimore, this game is against what I feel is the best team in the AFC in the San Diego Chargers and it's IN San Diego. The Bengals will be playing inspired football but they just aren't explosive enough on offense to match the Bolts and Phillip Rivers has NEVER lost in December(though last night proved that streaks were made to end). Chargers by 10.

Gabe: Bengals

Raiders(+14) at Broncos

Dave: Broncos - Denver's at home, needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt and the Raiders are starting Charlie Frye. Do I need to go further? Broncos by 20.

Gabe: Raiders

Bucs(+6.5) at Seahawks

Dave: Seahawks - Really don't understand why Josh Freeman is still at QB when a. He blew the Panthers game two weeks ago by throwing 5 picks, 3 of which in the red zone and b. Josh Johnson is not that bad of a QB. The classic axiom of East Coast team traveling to the West Coast comes into play here as does the fact that Seattle is better than their record and the Bucs are actually worse than theirs(which is saying something, since their 1-12). Qwest Field is probably one of the toughest, if not THE toughest, places to play in the NFL....especially for a rookie QB with Jay Cutler-like decision making ability. Seahawks rout here.....win by 13.

Gabe: Seahawks

Vikings(-9) at Panthers

Dave: Vikings - Not sure why Gabe likes Carolina here(though I'm sure he'll explain when the time comes). Vikings smell the top spot in the NFC after the Saints' loss and they'll be unleashing the best D-Line in the NFL against a Panthers O-Line missing both starting tackles. Also, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have been banged up and/or useless all season and that fact will only be exacerbated by going up against The Williams Wall. (Side note: Vikings LB Chad Greenway might be the most underrated defensive player in the NFL. If he's not the game's best OLB, he's not too far down the list.) Vikings by 17.

Gabe: Panthers

Giants(-3) at Redskins

Dave: Giants - Big Blue is desperate now that they need help to stay in the Wild Card race and they aren't going to let a suddenly lively Redskins team blow it for them. Eli Manning's piss-poor in the cold so that means a heavy helping(pun intended) of Brandon Jacobs and, let's face it, nobody wants to tackle a 6'4, 260lb man running uphill in the cold, right? Giants bowl over Washington here by 13.

Gabe: Giants......obviously.

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