AFC East Preview

Baseball is heading into its second half stretch. The World Cup is over. So is all the hoopla over NBA free agency(no pun intended). So what is left to talk about in the middle of July? Well, I'm glad you asked, Person Who I Made Up For The Sake Of This Rhetorical Question! If you check your calender, we are just a few short weeks from the start of preseason NFL football.


With that in mind, Gabe and I have decided to give our takes on each division for this upcoming season. Would it be smarter to do this next month after someone inevitably blows out their knee in a meaningless exhibition game and crushes their team's hopes of contention? Sure, but we like to live on the edge. Teams are listed in the order we believe they will finish, with an asterisk placed next to them if we think they'll make the Wild Card.



Dave:



1. New York Jets: History has taught us to be leery of teams like the Jets. After all, teams that load up by bringing in a bunch of eccentric, big name free agents in the offseason tend to crash and burn, especially when said team has the pressure of the New York media on its back. However, it's hard not to think of the Jets, at the very least, as the team to beat in the AFC East. By now, you know who the team added in the offseason, but here's a quick rundown: DE Jason Taylor, WR Santonio Holmes, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and CB Antonio Cromartie. All high-profile names with high-profile egos. As star-studded as that group of mercenaries is, the man to watch of all the Jet newcomers is rookie CB Kyle Wilson. Wilson, the Jets' first rounder in April, was considered by many to be the top corner in the NFL Draft, yet was the 3rd corner selected. With Cromartie's tackling suspect, Wilson could end up upending Cromartie for his spot or, at worst, lock down the nickel job. Either way, both he and Cromartie will be seeing a lot of action as opponents try desperately to avoid Revis Island.



As for the offense, I pronounced L.T. dead about two years ago and I'm glad the man is motivated to prove doubters like myself wrong, but sometimes a man has to look himself in the mirror and realize the magic is gone. L.T. is one of my favorite players of all-time, but his days as a dangerous back are well over. Shonn Greene, on the other hand, is a different story. He is going to be an absolute wrecking ball(though not the factor he would be if Alan Faneca was still in town). Holmes, when he comes back from his four-game suspension, gives the Jets a reliable receiver since both Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery suffer from Roberto Duran Disease. Dustin Keller will continue to improve and I think he's headed to the Pro Bowl this year. All in all, this is a 13-win team, but alot rides on head coach Rex Ryan's ability to keep all the personalities on this team in check and for QB Mark Sanchez to not get too enamored with his press clippings and go out perform better in his second season.



2. Miami Dolphins: If you read my fantasy football piece, you know I'm high on Dolphins QB Chad Henne this year. A lot of that has to do with the acquisition of former Broncos knucklehead Brandon Marshall but it also has to do with the emergence of second-year wideout Brian Hartline. With Marshall now in place as a bonafide top target and someone defenses should be worried about, Hartline is going to feast on all that open space on the other side of field. Plus, the Dolphins may have the best offensive line in football, led by former #1 overall pick Jake Long at left tackle. On defense, the absence of Jason Taylor will be filled by former CFL standout Cameron Wake. The Dolphins also added Karlos Dansby from Arizona to team with ILB Channing Crowder(who has been slowed thus far with a foot injury, which may or may not wreck his 2010 season, depending on who you talk to). I also like young corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith to take a step up and I loved the selection of Penn St. defensive lineman Jared Odrick in the first round to add some beef up front.



If there are concerns, it's in the running game. Starting RB Ronnie Brown seems to go down as he heats up and you have to constantly wonder where veteran back Ricky Williams' head is at. Jason Ferguson's absence at nose tackle leaves a huge void in the middle of that 3-4 scheme, a void they hope Odrick or another young pup can fill. At the end of the day, this team will be in the hunt for the Wild Card spot. They seem to have New England's number and they might have enough offensive firepower to at least make things tough for the Jets. There is alot of good teams outside of the division leaders so the Dolphins will need to do better than the 0-3 start they got out to last year if they want to shot at the playoffs.



3. New England Patriots: I know, I know, blasphemy. How can I put the Patriots 3rd? Simple. The allure of this team is based on mystique and its past resume. When you look deep down at this team, there isn't much there. We're told that Tom Brady is now fully back from his ACL injury(although we'll see what happens when a pass rush is coming for Tom Terrific's legs how ready he really is). Wes Welker is not. That leaves Randy Moss as the team's only real proven receiver(and no, I'm not buying Torry Holt. He's just as finished as L.T.). It doesn't bode well for your passing game when you're only proven commodity is a one-dimensional out-runner who has the tendency to sulk when he isn't getting the ball early. The running game is still abysmal. It amazed me that, with all those picks in the first two rounds, the Pats didn't try to move up for a Jahvid Best or a Monterio Hardesty to at least COMPETE with incumbent Laurence Maroney. On defense? Yikes. The team missed Richard Seymour's presence inside as well as Mike Vrabel's pass rush. There isn't a guy in that front seven who worries you except for maybe ILB Jerod Mayo. There's no proven pass rushers and that means that suspect secondary is about to become more suspect. I like Devin McCourtey, the corner from Rutgers they took in the first round, but it doesn't matter who is back there, if a QB has too much time to throw, he will find someone to throw to.



It's time to let go of our declaration of the Patriots as a contender. The run is over. The arrogance of some in that front office has allowed mistakes where there weren't any in past years. Terrible drafting, bad signings, risky play calling. We saw this team in the playoffs. They got ran over by Baltimore....and who'd they bring in since then that makes you think New England isn't every bit as horrid as they were in that Wild Card game? The glory days are over. Their franchise QB is spending time he used to spend watching film and training for the new season in California with his baby mama and his supermodel wife. The coach is making strange move after strange move. The defense is getting old and now so is the offense. Mark my words, if the Pats win 9 games this year, I would shocked. SHOCKED!



4. Buffalo Bills: Speaking of messes, the Bills are the NFL's equivalent of the BP oil spill. A team that could have used a young, hungry new coach like Leslie Frazier or Ron Rivera instead went with proven loser Chan Gailey as their guy. A team that needed offensive line help or a new QB instead got yet another RB to add to a stable that already had troubled Marshawn Lynch and backup Fred Jackson. I like C.J. Spiller. I think he's explosive and, on the right team, he could be a top 5 back. This isn't the right team. The passing game is a mess and the offensive line is non-existent. There is nothing that would keep defenses from stacking eight in the box and stopping Spiller or Lynch or Jackson dead in their tracks.



As for the Bills defense, Buffalo went from having a sucky 4-3 scheme to having an evenmore putrid 3-4 look. Top pass rusher Aaron Schobel was contemplating retirement at press time(and, really, who could blame him?). They don't have a true nose tackle(one of the foundations of running a successful 3-4) unless you are sold on rookie Torell Troup(I'm not). They don't know who their QB is and really, I can't fault Trent Edwards or Brian Brohm for being hesitant to trot out there and risk life and limb. I mean, not only are they going to be running for their lives, but who will they throw to? Lee Evans has proven year after year that he's not a #1 receiver. James Hardy is always hurt. Other than that, there's nobody. T.O. could come in off the street right now and start for this team. If there's a lone bright spot for Buffalo fans, it's that there a few promising young players to build around once they finally can Chan Gailey and get a real coach. Spiller will be electrifying if he gets some blocking up front. S Jairus Byrd, who many feel should have won ROTY amidst the Brian Cushing steroid scandal, is one of the game's better safeties. CB Leodis McKelvin is solid cover corner and even better return guy. The team also is waiting on the potential of former Nittany Lions LB Paul Posluszny and DE/LB Aaron Maybin. Still, while those guys continue to develop, the Bills will spend this season getting Jake Locker's jersey ready in preparation for taking him with next year's top pick. 4 wins. TOPS. And that's if they are lucky.


Gabe (with fantasy football previews):


After reading Dave's preview I realized that, well, I agree, almost 100%, and that's just boring. So I am going to take a different approach. I am going to look at each team from a fantasy perspective and try to get you ready for your fantasy drafts, because well, those are even more imminent than the NFL regular season.


Though rest assured, if there is something Dave has said that I disagree with, I'll point it out.


1. New York Jets - I agree that the Jets will win the division. I also think their defensive backfield is scary. Scary. To me all of the question marks are on offense. Is the running game going to be as good as it was last year? Probably not. Will Mark Sanchez be able to step up with the added pressure that comes with experience and a lesser running game? We'll see.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are gone. Shonn Greene steps in to take over the starting spot, with LaDanian Tomlinson and rookie Joe McKnight backing him up. Greene is a workhorse who, as he showed in last year's playoffs, has all of the potential to be a top 10 fantasy back, but I'm not sure he's there yet. In most mock drafts he is being taken in the late first round, which I think could be a little high. He is clearly the first and second down back, but expect Tomlinson to get most of the third down and short yardage carries. McKnight has little value outside of dynasty league.
Receiving - Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes are both ranked by most in the 35-45 range at their position. Holmes is downgraded because of his suspension, Edwards because of his stone hands. Both are high-risk, high-reward prospects. Jerricho Cotchery could have value if the match-up is right, especially with Holmes and Edwards drawing coverage. Tight end Dustin Keller is a sleeper at tight end, also because of the coverage the others will draw.
Quarterbacks - The Jets win because of defense and running. Unless you play in a keeper league Mark Sanchez is not draftable. He might be a bye week fill in, if you have no other option.
Defense/ST - Depending on your league's scoring system the Jets are either the no. 1 or 2 option for team defense. They were awesome last year in every facet of the game and through the draft and free agents they have gotten better. They are one of the few defensive units worth taking earlier then the last two or three rounds of the draft.


2. New England Patriots. I was flirting with the idea of putting the Pats third, and even told Dave as much, but I just can't do it. I think Tom Brady will be back fully from his injury. Wes Welker is going to out for a long time, but Julian Edelman is going fill that role capably. The RBBC (running back by committee) is a fantasy nightmare but they make it work on the field. I think the Pats can put it together for one more season.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - Garbage. Fantasy garbage. Laurence Maroney is the best player of the group, (which also includes "Fragile" Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and BenJarvis Green-Ellis), but even he is slipping. Last year the Pats had four backs who had 70 or more carries, and Maroney wasn't one of them. The Patriots play RB's based on match-ups and momentum. There is just too much inconsistency for fantasy purposes.
Receiving - Last year Moss had a shoulder injury. This year he'll be recovered and playing a contract year. I think Moss is still elite and a lower tier WR1. Julian Edelman is worthy of a back-up slot in most standard leagues. Unless you're desperate and in a really deep league no one else in NE is worth drafting, starting tight end Alge Crumpler included.
Quarterback - Tom Brady struggled some last year, but everyone knows the second year back from a knee injury is always better than the first. I expect Brady to be back to form this year and be a top ten fantasy QB. His success depends on Moss staying healthy and Edelman emerging. Consider Brady moderate-risk/high-reward.
Defense/ST - The Patiots have some nice young talent, as Dave went into in his preview. They need some time to gel and until they do the Pats should be considered a middle of the road fantasy defense.


3. Miami Dolphins - I like the improvements to the passing game, but I think the running game is a mess. I have the Dolphins at 3 more because I think the Patriots are going to put it together for one more year and edge the 'Phins in the division race.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Brown is probable for the start of camp with a foot injury. Williams is a flake. Williams will begin the season as the starter, but once Brown comes back they will be a full fledged RBBC. Both are decent RB3 options, but I wouldn't draft either as a starter.
Receiving - Brandon Marshall is a stud, a top-10 fantasy WR. Other than him though, there isn't really a receiver worth drafting. Maybe Davone Bess if you're in a deep league (like 12-14 teams and each takes 6 WR's deep), but that is pushing it. Now, quick....who is Miami's starting tight end? Got it? Well, even I had to look it up. Anthony Fasano. He is a mid-level TE2 at best. He should only be considered back-up/bye week replacement role.
Quarterback - Chad Henne averaged 306.5 yards a game in Weeks 13-16 last year, and that was with nothing at receiver. Now he has Brandon Marshall, so he should consistently hit high numbers. I think Henne is a sleeper with a chance to finish in the top 15 among fantasy quarterbacks.
Defense/ST - This team lost a few pieces, but replaced them with some nice players, like Karlos Dansby. Expect this team to perform well against bad offenses, but struggle against good offenses. They'll be a middle of the road fantasy defense.


4. Buffalo Bills - They stink. They are changing defenses and don't have the personnel to successfully run a 3-4. Their offense is just position battle after position battle.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - I can attest, from personal experience, to the frustration of the Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson handcuff. I had them both on a team two years ago. Now the situation is even more confused by the addition of rookie C.J. Spiller. Expect Jackson and Spiller to split carries and Lynch to come in situationally. Jackson and Spiller should considered RB3's and Lynch a desperation draft pick. Although, any of the three of them could breakout, so watch this position carefully in camp.
Receiving - Lee Evans is the only Bills receiver worth drafting and even he is only a borderline WR3, making him barely a starter in most leagues. If you get points for return yards then Roscoe Parrish might be worth some late consideration. No other Bills WR should be on your radar. No TE's in the Bills system are worth taking.
Quarterback - This position is a three-way battle between Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm. Avoid all three at your draft. Consider whoever is the starter an emergency in-season injury replacement.
Defense/ST - They are moving a 3-4 and don't have the pieces. They have a nice secondary so they have value in leagues that reward INT's. Parrish is a decent return man too. They are a mid-level DST2.


You may have noticed, I didn't say anything about kickers. I don't think about fantasy kickers until the last rounds of my drafts...and neither should you.