DAVE:
1. Baltimore Ravens: The more I read about the Ravens, the more reluctant I become about putting them atop of the division. This is now the fourth time I've had to revise this piece because of an injury of some sort to one of the key members of the team. First, there was free safety Ed Reed, who will be placed on the Physically Unable To Perform List and will miss the first 6 games of the season(if he comes back at all) with the hip injury that nearly forced him to retire last season. In Reed's absence will be a couple of young pups with upside. Former Notre Dame boxer/safety Tom Zbikowski would probably be the leader to replace Reed. Zbikowski has exceptional speed and we all know he can lay the hammer down. There's also former Cowboys free safety Ken Hamlin, who was signed in the offseason as Reed insurance. Hamlin is adequate but the knock on him during his Dallas stint was his inability to make tackles in open space and the tendency for being a liability in coverage. In this scheme, that would make him the anti-Ed Reed. Another deep sleeper would be former Cincinatti Bearcat Haruki Nakamura. He's been solid on special teams and he's athletic enough to at least give Hamlin and Zibby a run for the chance to replace Reed. All three are decent options. None of them are the kind of Hall of Fame playmaker that Reed is. Yes, the Ravens put themselves at risk of giving up big plays when Reed takes chances and loses, but how many games have been swung in Baltimore's favor thanks to Reed's gambles? Outside of Reed, there's the recent bad luck in the health department with their two top selections. Promising pass-rushing linebacker Sergio Kindle suffered a skull fracture that will keep him out for most of the preseason, which will set his development back a bit. While the Ravens certainly aren't at a dearth of pass-rushers, a guy like Kindle could help make up for the problems they have in the secondary(even with Ed Reed). Fellow second-rounder Terrence Cody failed his conditioning test, much to the surprise of noone, and you wonder where that places his immediate future with the team. Most recently, free agent acquisition CB Dominique Foxworth tore his ACL, ending his season before it even started. That makes an already bleak secondary look all the more pedestrian. As it stands, a veteran front seven and an offense with a ton of potential are the only things provoking me to keep the Ravens at the top spot.
Then, there's the offense. The Ravens upgraded their passing game by acquiring wideout Anquan Boldin from Arizona. Boldin is the perfect type of receiver for Baltimore's style of play: tough, physical, aggressive, loves contact. He gives QB Joe Flacco a reliable target after the last couple of years dealing with Mark Clayton's stone hands and the geriatric Derrick Mason. Another newcomer is former Saint/Eagle/Patriot/Brown receiver and vehicular manslaughter-er Donte Stallworth. Stallworth is the speed element to complement a core filled with possession receivers. As much as the presence of Stallworth and Boldin helps the passing game, the knock on both men is their inability to stay healthy. Boldin constantly finds himself the victim of his hard-knock style of play that has been his calling card since coming into the league. Stallworth, like most track star like receivers with rail-thin physiques, seems to be always plagued by hamstring and various leg ailments. He's also been out of football for a little over a year after his hit-and-run beef a couple years ago. As we saw with Mike Vick last year, it takes time for someone to just jump back into football(especially those whose game is solely based on speed). If Boldin and Stallworth can provide the aerial improvement that is expected of them, expect a breakout year for RB Ray Rice(CHOP WOOD!). With defenses no longer needing to stack eight in the box and daring Flacco to throw, that leaves a lot of running room for Rice behind that massive offensive line(led by monstrous tackles Jared Gaither and Micheal Oher). Although, Gaither is believed to be on the trading block, and with the team's newfound need for able bodies in the secondary, he may be dealt for some help in that defensive backfield. If that happens, this is a different looking Ravens ballclub.
On paper, this is still the top team in the AFC North and if they find someone to at least be adequate in replacing Reed and shore up the secondary, then Baltimore becomes the Jets' biggest obstacle on the road to the Super Bowl. However, the last few weeks, the ball hasn't bounced the Ravens' way and it makes you wonder whether this just an abberation or a sign of things to come?
2. Pittsburgh Steelers*: In any other year, the Ravens' misfortune would be Pittsburgh's gain. The problem is, the Steelers have a couple losses of their own to deal with. First and foremost, you may have heard that QB Ben Roethlisberger got himself into a bit of trouble in the offseason by doing things he wasn't supposed to with women who may or may not have been so willing to participate. That misbehavior will see Big Ben sit out for the first four games, at the least. In his place will either be former Steelers backup Byron Leftwich or rising second-year QB Dennis Dixon. Because of Dixon's athletic prowess, he may have the edge here but Leftwich showed in his last stint that he's more than capable of leading the Steelers. The other loss in question for Pittsburgh is former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes, who was jettisoned to New York after the team grew tired of his numerous off-field antics. Holmes' spot will more than likely be filled by second-year man Mike Wallace. Wallace had a breakout year last year, but how much of that was attributed to being matched up against nickel corners, safeties and linebackers where he could overwhelm them with his impressive size/speed combo? Now, Wallace will be up against legit corners and won't have the element of surprise. There's also the chemistry factor. When Big Ben returns, there's naturally going to be some rust and he isn't as familiar with Wallace as he is with "The Most Hated Man in the NFL" Hines Ward and tight end Heath Miller. The Steelers luck out by having a relatively easy schedule in Ben's absence(with the exception of a game against Baltimore), but don't be surprised if Ben's return starts with a lot of looks to Miller and Ward and a steady dose of power back Rashard Mendenhall.
That's who is gone. Here's who is back. For starters, cornerback Bryant McFadden returns to Blitzburgh after a cup of coffee with Arizona last season. McFadden may easily be Pittsburgh's best corner, but that isn't really saying much. Pittsburgh also welcome back two guys who were missing due to injuries last season. S Troy Polamalu became the latest victim of the Madden Curse, as his season was pretty much wrecked since hurting his knee in the opener. His healthy return makes the Steelers much more formidable in the secondary, which was a problem last season with Troy and his hair absent. Another underrated return is DE Aaron Smith, who had his '09 season cut short by injuries. When Smith is right, he's one of the best 3-4 ends in the game and his return combined with the continued progress of last year's first-rounder "Ziggy" Hood as well as massive NT Casey Hampton in the middle will ensure that Pittsburgh is back to having one of the five best defenses in the NFL(having bookend pass-rushers at linebacker like LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison helps. As does underrated middle linebacker James Farrior). The acquisition I am most excited about, and Steelers fans should be excited about, is first-rounder Maurkice Pouncey from Florida. Pouncey is outstanding run blocker on the interior, a skill honed while opening holes for Tim Tebow for years with the Gators. Pouncey holding down the middle of the offensive line, be it guard or center, allows Mendenhall to do what he does best: pound the ball inside. The Steelers are still a bit suspect on the outside of the offensive line as RT Willie Colon is done for the year already, but Pouncey's presence certainly helps quite a bit. All in all, if Big Ben can get his head right and Polamalu stays on the field, the Steelers are a playoff team, but right now, those are two big IFs.
3. Cincinnati Bengals*: I've come full circle on the Bengals. Initially, I thought a roster loaded with notorious headcases like Chad Ochocinco, Pac-Man Jones, Antonio Bryant, Tank Johnson, Cedric Benson and now Terrell Owens would be a recipe for disaster. Now, I find the idea of all these outcasts to be a cool idea, almost in a "Expendables" or "Ocean's Eleven" kind of way. There's a chance that these men, long chastised for their history of being disruptive malcontents, could use their standing as miscreants to band together. After all, who would understand T.O.'s diva antics better than Chad Ochocinco? Who would be better for Pac-Man Jones to confide with about a second chance than Cedric Benson? The only thing holding the Bengals back from being a legit contender is the reputations of their infamous stars. They are the NFL's most dangerous powderkeg. They can be explosive or they can implode with just one little spark.
If you're Carson Palmer, you have to be both anxious and nervous over your new set of toys. Palmer went from Ochocinco and a band of nobodies to a recieving core that now includes Bryant(fresh off back to back 1,000 yard seasons with Tampa Bay), Owens(arguably one of the 20 best receivers of all-time, even if he is coming off a subpar season in Buffalo and has lost a few steps), first-round pick TE Jermane Gresham(who was a top-10 talent before blowing out his knee last season), third rounder Jordan Shipley(perhaps a quicker, younger Wes Welker) and last year's holdover Andre Caldwell(a long shot to stick with the team, but still quality depth). Plus, Palmer can always turn around and hand off the pill to last season's 8th leading rusher in Benson. Benson got himself into a little hot water with a domestic assault beef, but won't be suspended. If Palmer and head coach Marvin Lewis keep all that ego in check, who wants to face this offense this season. I mean, Baltimore got swept by Cincy last year and now their secondary looks a lot worse this season. We could be looking at a repeat champion in the AFC North.
On defense, the guy to watch is DE/LB Michael Johnson. He's tall(6'6), lean and crazy athletic. The big knock, however, is motivation(like with most of the Bengals). The same can be said for rookie DE Carlos Dunlap, who has the same kind of potential that Johnson has, but doesn't always utilize it on the field. Dunlap and Johnson aid a pass rush that already has Robert Geathers(10.5 sacks just a couple years ago) and a returning Antwan Odom(the NFL's leader in sacks midseason before injuries cut his '09 short). There's also Tank Johnson, who can be as disruptive on the field as he is off of it, and massive DT Pat Sims. The linebacking crew is led by two former Trojans: MLB Rey Maualuga and OLB Keith Rivers. Both are speedy, athletic hard hitters who also suffer from being a wee bit injury prone. The gem of the defense is the secondary. The Bengals possess the most underrated cornerback tandem in the NFL in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joesph(both had 6 INTs a piece last year, good for a tie for 5th). The team also brought back former Pro Bowl safety Roy Williams as well as signed former Giant/Dolphin Gibril Wilson. Wilson was subpar with Miami last year, but could return to his New York form and give a boost to a defense that was already top 7 in the four major defensive categories last season(points allowed-6th, total yards-4th, rushing-7th, passing-6th).
So why do I have a team that seems to be so loaded 3rd in the division? Well, beyond the obvious risk taken by putting this many volcanic personalities together, the schedule makers did the Bengals no favor either. Beyond the four games they'll have to play against Pittsburgh and Baltimore(Granted, they swept both last year, but still), the Bengals have road games against the Patriots, Panthers, Colts, Jets and Falcons as well as home games against the Super Bowl champion Saints, the much-improved Dolphins and the dwindling Chargers. Outside of two games against the Browns and a game against Tampa Bay at home, there aren't many gimmes for Cincy. Regardless, the T.O. signing made the Bengals the team to watch in the NFL, not just for the reality show drama, but because, on paper, this team has enough depth at each position to make its first Super Bowl run since the late 80's.
4. Cleveland Browns: If Cleveland residents thought LeBron skipping town was tough to watch, wait until they see the Browns this season. Which problem area shall I start with? Well, for one, new Browns personnel man Mike Holmgren saw fit to retain Eric Mangini despite no evidence from last season(or really, the last few seasons) to suggest that was the right move. Holmgren also thought it was wise to throw a multi-year contract at turnover machine Jake Delhomme to be their stop-gap QB and then traded for aging, undersized backup Seneca Wallace. In the end, the best QB on the roster may be 3rd round pick Colt McCoy, who had a storied career at Texas but slid in the draft thanks to concerns about size, health, arm strength and the fact that he talks like one of the kids from Dukes of Hazzard. Whomever is taking snaps behind center will have quite the quagmire at running back to worry about. Holdover Jerome Harrison is coming off a solid final three games of the season but is caught up in a contract situation that threatens the likelihood of him seeing significant playing time this season. Instead, those touches may go to powerful rookie Monterio Hardesty out of Tennessee. The receiving core is just as uncertain. With the Browns entering the first full season without Braylon Edwards, the big man on campus will probably be Mohammad "Chainsaw" Massaquoi, who showed flashes of being a competent go-to guy last season. He'll be joined by dynamic return man Josh Cribbs and fellow second-year wideout Brian Robiskie in the group of guys Delhomme will be intending to throw to when he's getting picked off left and right by opposing secondaries.
On defense, the team drafted CB Joe Haden out of Florida and traded for veteran Sheldon Brown from Philadelphia to bolster the secondary. As for the other parts of the defense? Dreadful. The team waved bye-bye to top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley and nose tackle Shaun Rogers is facing a suspension after trying to bring a gun through an airport. Fellow defensive lineman Corey Williams was sent to Detroit, leaving even more of a void in the front seven. To put it plain, the team is a mess. If Holmgren and/or Mangini are as smart as they are believed to be, McCoy is starting for this team by Week 8 because they'll be so far out of it, it will be pointless to keep the vets in. There isn't a member of this franchise another team may want except for maybe ILB D'Qwell Jackson. Other than that, much like their neighboring Cavs, the Browns are years away from respectability and fans have quite a few train wrecks to experience before this team is watchable again.
GABE:
1. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens will win the division. They have greatly improved their offense with the additions of Boldin and Stallworth. Their one defensive weakness was the secondary even before the Ed Reed injury. I think they are too strong everywhere else on the field though.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - Ray Rice is a stud. Last year he had 332 touches, 2041 total yards, and 8 TD's. More importantly, he is one of the very few clear cut workhorse backs in the NFL. He is not mired in a running-back-by-committee (RBBC) situation. Barring injury, expect Rice to post similar numbers this year. Willis McGahee will get some goal-line carries but is only worth a late, late (like next to last) pick if you've drafted Rice and want to handcuff, or need a bench RB in a touchdown-only league.
Quarterbacks - Joe Flacco is on the rise. Last year he posted over 3,600 passing yards and that was without the talent he has this year. He also isn't afraid to pull it down and run on occasion. That may be worth a bonus touchdown or two throughout the year. I think he's a sleeper pick to end up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year.
Receiving - The Ravens welcome Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth this year. Boldin is going to have to adjust to being an no. 1 receiver but should still put up borderline WR1 numbers. Last year's top target Derrick Mason is getting up there in age, but he's consistent and should still be a reliable WR3. (I love Derrick Mason, in a fantasy way. I've had him so many years in a row in my big money league that my wife thinks it's not football season unless I'm yelling "Throw it to Mason!!" during Ravens games.) Stallworth might be worth drafting in deep leagues. Mark Clayton will be a bust. Tight End Todd Heap has fallen off. At this point he is probably a decent TE2 option only.
Defense/ST - The defense has added lots of young talent, but the secondary is a concern. The front seven is still strong enough to make this a top-10 fantasy defense.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - I'll take Cincinnati to get through their tough schedule (opening against New England and Baltimore, and a stretch in the middle of year when they play five games out of seven against 2009 playoff teams) and win more games than Pittsburgh starting the season without Roethlisberger.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - Cedric Benson joined the fantasy elite last year after struggling in Chicago. He is now a legit no. 1 fantasy back. I expect Benson to produce much like he did last year, with the ubiquitous barring injury. This team is now a running team and he'll get the touches. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard are only worth drafting to handcuff Benson.
Quarterback - Beware of the bust. Carson Palmer was expected to return to form in 2009 and didn't. He will turn 30 this year and probably won't get back to where he was three years ago. He is no longer a fantasy starter, but could be a good option for a bye week spot start.
Receiving - Speaking of guys whose best days are behind them....Chad Ochocinco. He was best when he had a great no. 2 receiver taking some of the pressure off of him. This year the Bengals brought in Antonio Bryant, and he ain't scaring anybody. I think Chad is mid-level WR2 at this point. His elite days are over. Bryant will be a decent back-up WR option. I wouldn't take any other Bengals WR's. They are a run-first team now so their third and fourth receivers won't get many looks. Rookie TE Jermaine Gresham should get some red-zone targets and have value in touchdown-only leagues, but don't expect much value otherwise.
Defense/ST - Cincinnati has been loading their defense with young talent. They will most likely end up as a middle of the road fantasy defense, but they have the potential to do more.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - I think being without Roethlisberger to start the year is going to be too much for the Steelers to overcome.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Backs - I love Rashard Mendenhall this year. The RBBC mess Pittsburgh has had in recent years is gone. He enters the season as the man in Pitt. Mendenhall is a bit of a sleeper and will end up a top-10 back this year. If he falls past the first round in your draft, grab him, it will be a steal. Keep and eye on rookie Jonathan Dwyer too, especially in keeper leagues. Should Mendenhall get hurt Dwyer will be ready to fill in.
Quarterback - Roethlisberger is out for six weeks. Dennis Dixon is probably going to start. Dixon is probably not going to be worth having on your fantasy roster. Roethlisberger is going to be on fire when he comes back. Because of the suspension he should be available late in drafts. Get a starter and then stash Big Ben on your bench until he comes back.
Receiving - Hines Ward and Mike Wallace could be looked at as Pittsburgh options 1 and 1A. Ward is getting old and Wallace is young. They should both be looked at low level WR2 or high WR3 options, depending on the size of your league. The rest of the WR's are familiar names (Antwaan Randle El, Limas Sweed, Arnaz Battle, etc.) but are not worth any fantasy consideration. Tight end Heath Miller is a reliable option. He should finish somewhere in the top 10 for fantasy TE's, closer to ten than one though.
Defense/ST - Last year they were suffering a Super Bowl hangover and lost Troy Polamalu for most of the season and were still an elite group fantasy-wise. Polamalu is back and healthy and that will only make this unit better. Expect them to be a top-10 unit again.
4. Cleveland Browns - They stink. They would probably finish behind the Bengals and Buckeyes in a poll of the best football teams in Ohio.
Fantasy Focus:
Running Back - Rookie Montario Hardesty and 2009 breakout Jerome Harrison give this team a full fledged RBBC. Harrison is better pick right now because of his experience, but is a borderline RB2 option. Hardesty will get his chances though. Watch this situation closely because if one of these guys struggles the other one will jump to take the lead role.
Quarterbacks - The Browns got rid of Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn and brought in Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and drafted Colt McCoy. This is the fantasy equivalent of trading in an '87 Toyota Tercel for an '85 Dodge Omni with 4 more horsepower. (The 4 horsepower represent McCoy's potential.) They are all fantasy garbage. Avoid this QB situation at all costs.
Receiving - The only WR's on this roster worth drafting are Mohamed Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs, and Cribbs is only worth it if you get points for return yards from individuals. He is not worth it for his offensive production. Massaquoi is a borderline fantasy starter at best, and that's only in deep leagues. He is a back-up in any league with 12 teams or fewer. Don't touch any of their tight ends.
Defense/ST - This unit has value because of Cribbs. He is the best return man in the league. This D was eighth in the league in sacks last year, but they traded Kameron Wimbley, their best pass rusher. Bottom line, the defense is going to stink, but their special teams are amazing. They are an average unit overall that will boom or bust week to week, depending on Cribbs' performance.
Once again, I don't care about kickers, and neither should you.
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