Dave:
1. Indianapolis Colts: Every year, we keep wondering when the downward spiral for the Colts is going to come. Every year, we wait for Peyton Manning to have an off year or get hurt. Every year, we keep talking ourselves into someone out of the Tennessee/Houston/Jacksonville trio that is going to step up and topple Indy.
Every year, it never happens.
To fufill my obligations of the annual "This could be the year the Colts fall because...." scenario, I will say that there is an interesting wrinkle in this year's Colts that hasn't been there in recent years: The potential of a holdout by star receiver Reggie Wayne. With a lockout looming and Wayne not getting any younger, the All-Pro wideout understandably wants one last payday. Colts GM Bill Polian has been vehemently against giving Wayne a re-up and what we will see over the coming months will be an epic staredown between one of the great contract negotiators in the game and the franchise QB's favorite target. If you had to place bets on who would bend, bet the house on Wayne folding. After all, this is the same team that kicked Colts legend Marvin Harrison to the curb just last year. The Colts also have Anthony Gonzalez returning to a receiving core that also has last year's breakout rookies Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. There's also Peyton's other favorite target: tight end Dallas Clark. None of them, however, are Reggie Wayne and Wayne's contract situation is worth keeping an eye if things get nasty as the season progresses.
Another thing to file in the "This might be the year Indy falls" category would be the tradition of Super Bowl losers falling flat the following season. For as good as the Colts' passing game will be(with or without Wayne), the running game leaves much to be desired. The Colts finished dead last in the NFL in rushing last year(averaging a putrid 80.9 yards per game on the ground). Of course, that didn't stop the Colts from winning the AFC last year, but lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice. The defense was so-so last year as well, giving up 124 yards per game on the ground(24th in the NFL) and 212 yards through the air(14th in the NFL). Helping that cause will be tenacious first-round pick, DE Jerry Hughes, and the hopefully healthy return of pass-rushing phenom Dwight Freeney. Still, in a division that will see the Colts go up against two of the three best RBs in the NFL(Tennessee's Chris Johnson, Jax's Maurice Jones-Drew) as well as an improved running game in Houston(addition of rookie Ben Tate), the lack of improvement to the run defense in the offseason is a bit troubling.
The Colts' fate relies on everything bouncing their way, be it the health of S Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne's contract beef and/or the re-emergence of the running game, and history has shown that teams that lose the Super Bowl don't get as lucky. So, again, this COULD be the year Indy falls, but after being wrong for years and being disappointed by the inability of the rest of the pack to emerge, I'll believe the Colts will fall when I see it.
2. Tennessee Titans: The Titans may have notched their biggest win of the season before the season even started by coming to terms on a revamped contract for last year's 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson. With Johnson no longer expected to soil training camp with a nasty holdout, Tennessee can focus on its next big issue: Making a legit QB out of Vince Young. We know Vince knows how to win and we know Vince has the tools to be every bit of the game-changer his college headlines suggested coming out of Texas a couple years ago. This year, if the Titans are going to contend, we need to see what Vince has got. That's why I don't have the Titans in the Wild Card. I just can't trust Vince Young to take that next step. I'm also leery of the toll of last year's season combined with the fact LenDale White isn't around to take some of the pounding will have on Johnson. As for receivers, there's last year's first round pick Kenny Britt, who led all Titans in receiving. He'll be complemented by former Steeler Nate Washington and highly touted rookie Damien Williams. There's also the threat of Johnson coming out of the backfield. That all sounds good on paper, but it comes down to Young putting it all together and, again, I just can't see it happening.
On defense, the Titans replaced top pass rusher Kyle Vanden Bosch with first round pick Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech. Morgan was considered the most complete end in the Draft but got himself into an early hole thanks to a DUI last month. Joining Vanden Bosch on the list of former Titans is longtime linebacker Kevin Bulluck(who recently signed with the Giants). Those two losses might be too much for the defense to overcome, since Tennessee is asking for Pro Bowl-caliber production out of guys who are either rookies or have limited experience. The secondary will be solid with Michael Griffin and Chris Hope at the safety spots and Jason McCourtey and Cortland Finnegan at the corners, but their ability to make plays will depend on guys like Morgan putting pressure on the quarterback. The Titans remain in the hunt to bring back disgruntled Redskin and former Titan DT Albert Haynesworth. His return could drastically change the defense, but the team's success relies on Tennessee's athletic Big Three(Young, Johnson and Britt). If Young continues to be held back by mental demons or Johnson breaks down from the workload or Britt finds himself back at the bottom of the depth chart(or any combination of the three), then it's going to be another long season for Titans fans and, this time, they won't be able to blame Kerry Collins.
3. Houston Texans: Much like expecting the Colts to fall each year, there's the annual "When Will The Texans Become A Playoff Team?" question. They had a lot of sleeper buzz going into last season due to the trio of QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton. Schaub and Johnson delivered. Slaton didn't. This year, Slaton has found himself a platoon partner(Auburn rookie Ben Tate) to be the power complement to his lightning-fast speed. The Texans also get tight end Owen Daniels back, who was off to a hot start before a knee injury cut his season short. The Texans remain confident the presence of the beefy Tate and an renewed focus by Slaton(not to mention Arian Foster, who took over for Slaton down the stretch last year) will give them the ground complement their explosive air attack sorely needed. The problem with that is head coach Gary Kubiak and his tendency to play roulette with his RB depth chart. Slaton can't get on a roll if Kubiak suddenly feels the urge to play Foster or gets enamored with Tate.
Defensively, the Texans keep getting scarier. They'll miss two-time Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing for four games thanks to a PED suspension. Luckily, they'll still have a defense chock full of impressive young talent. Stealing Cushing's tackles the first four games will be tackling machine DeMeco Ryans, who passed the 100-tackle mark for fourth time in as many seasons. The Texans also have two young lynchpins on the defensive line in former #1 overall pick Mario Williams at end and young DT Amobi Okoye. Okoye hasn't been the interior terror many had hoped after his 5.5 sack rookie season(just 2.5 sacks combined the last two years since) but he's still only 23. Houston bid adieu to corner Dunta Robinson and turned heads by replacing him with Alabama corner Kareem Jackson over the much more touted Kris Wilson. Helping Jackson out in the secondary will be the man who gives Tom Brady nightmares, SS Bernard Pollard, and Brady's former teammate Eugene Wilson at FS.
All signs point to the defense being good and the sleeper buzz is still strong in H-Town, but what's keeping me from putting them ahead of Tennessee is the uncertainty in the running game. Beyond his fumbling troubles, Slaton is also injury-prone. Foster is a nice back but he's never done it over a full season and I'm not nearly as high on Tate as many others are. For now, the Texans are a team that is one-dimensional on offense(although the Schaub-to-Andre 3000 tandem is a very good one-trick pony) and still growing on defense. They lost alot of close fourth quarter games last season. Did they learn from it and are ready to show the NFL they are ready for primetime or are they still waiting to grow up?
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags have a lot of people scratching their heads so far this season. A team that scored an average of 18 points per game spent four of their six draft picks on defense, including a jaw-dropper in the first round by taking virtual unknown Tyson Alualu at #10(many projected him at last-first/early second). Then, rather than get in the market for a wideout like Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin(both Florida boys, mind you), the Jags used their money to bring in former Packer Aaron Kampman to bolster the pass rush and said bye-bye to last year's free agent flop, WR Torry Holt. The Jags also shipped Pro Bowl DT John Henderson out of town in a draft-day trade to Oakland. The end result is a team that looks worse than last year's 7-9 bunch. The one bright spot for Jacksonville is the man called "Pocket Hercules", RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Thanks to an offseason getting him no help, MoJo returns to his role as the offense's one-man show. M.J.D. will be hoping QB David Garrard will be returning to the form that got Garrard his big extension a couple years. That may be wishful thinking. Reports out of camp have said the QB to watch has been journeyman Luke McCown. Given the temperature under the caboose of head coach Jack Del Rio, don't be surprised if Garrard gets the hook early in favor of McCown should Garrard falter.
And really, how could Garrard not fail? Nobody hardly heard of Mike Sims-Walker prior to his breakout year last year and even with his newfound success, Walker couldn't keep himself out of Del Rio's dog house. Outside of Sims-Walker, who is there? Mike Thomas is decent, but's he's 5'8. Troy Williamson has been a bust since Day 1 and beyond them is a bunch of unproven youngsters. Former first round tight end Marcedes Lewis has scored all of 7 TDs in four years and the chances of a Vernon Davis-like breakout seems unlikely. On top of that, there's Jacksonville's nightmare opening month: Denver, at San Diego, Philly, Indy. There's a good chance of a quick 0-4.
Defensively, the days of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud dominating the inside are now officially over. Instead, the Jags will rely on Alualu to not succumb to the pressure of his shockingly high selection as well as hope Kampman bounces back quick from last year's ACL tear(which is a two-year injury, as any Pats fan can tell you after watching Brady last year). So a team that 27th against the pass WITH Big John in the middle now has to face four teams who love to pass in the first month. If Del Rio isn't the first coach canned in 2010, I'd be plenty surprised. The team looked like they were tuning him out last year, and this group appears to be much worse.
Gabe:
This division has abundant fantasy talent. There are players in this division in the top 10 at each position, including the top player at at least two different positions. The offenses in this division are high powered so don't be surprised if players from the AFC South are being taken all over your fantasy draft.
Here we go...
1. Indianapolis Colts - Houston is on the rise but I think the Colts still have enough in the tank to hold them off again this year.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - Peyton Manning is still among the league's elite. Last year he threw for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns, the second highest totals in his career. He is not showing any signs of diminishing either. He is definitely the most consistent, elite, fantasy QB in the league. He'll probably end up a top-3 fantasy quarterback this year.
Running Backs - Joseph Addai and Donald Brown define RBBC (running back by committee). Their talents are exactly opposite. Brown is the big play guy, but also led the league in carries for zero or negative yardage. Addai is the short yardage guy. He is a better blocker and pass catcher. Expect them to basically split time evenly unless one of them gets hurt. Brown is worth some extra consideration in dynasty leagues, especially because Addai will be a free agent in 2011.
Receiving - The Colts have four WR's worth drafting in most standard leagues. Reggie Wayne is still an elite fantasy WR. He is as consistent as Peyton Manning. He has had six straight seasons with over 1,000 yards and three with double digit TD's. There is no reason to think he won't do the same this year. Pierre Garcon is currently the Colts' no. 2 receiver and best deep threat. As long as he isn't taken out of the line-up by a returning Anthony Gonzalez he'll be a solid fantasy WR2. Austin Collie and the aforementioned Gonzalez will be fighting for the No. 3 receiver spot. Both are worth stashing on your bench because even though this receiving corps is crowded, any of them could have a big game. Tight end Dallas Clark is among the fantasy elite and is arguably the top fantasy tight end in the league. He may get caught up in the crowded receiving corps in Indy, but is still a top option.
Defense/ST - Last year they allowed plenty of rushing yards but forced lots of turnovers. They addressed defensive needs in the draft this year and should be a better than average fantasy unit. They will probably finish just outside of the top 10.
2. Houston Texans - The Texans have lots of talent on both sides of the ball. They are getting better but need to finally put it all together and make the playoffs or else they may find their fans getting impatient. All that talent translates to big things in the fantasy world though.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - Quick, who led the league in passing yards last year? Of course the answer is Texans QB Matt Schaub or else it would have been really lame for me to ask that question here. Schaub played all 16 games and led all passers with 4,770 yards. Schaub has plenty of weapons and as long has he stays healthy he should put together another great season. Consider him a top tier fantasy quarterback.
Running Backs - The running back situation in Houston is a three headed RBBC. Ben Tate is the hot shot rookie. Steve Slaton is full of talent but had a disappointing end to last year. Arian Foster was Slaton's replacement as the starter at the end of last year. Most outlets have Tate supplanting everyone to be the starter by the middle of the year. I wouldn't count out a Slaton resurgence. Forget about Foster. He'll only play if Slaton and Tate get injured. Watch this position closely in camp and at the start of the season to see if one of these guys emerges.
Receiving - Last year, in my capacity as Houston Texans guru at ProSportsBlogging.com, I said Andre Johnson was the best receiver in the league. All he did was prove me right by catching for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns. Expect similar numbers this year. I also wouldn't worry about his production suffering if Schaub gets injured. Dan Orlovsky is a capable back-up and Johnson is too good to not get open. Johnson is going to produce no matter what. After Johnson, the only Texans WR worth drafting is Kevin Walter. He is coming off of an injury but should be a solid WR3. The reason no other Houston WR is worth drafting is because of tight end Owen Daniels. He is without a doubt a top tier fantasy tight end and is treated as another receiver in their offense. He was hurt for the last half of the year in 2009, but in eight games he produced 519 yards and five touchdowns. Those are big time numbers.
Defense/ST - Last year the run defense started awfully (partly because Chris Johnson ran all over them in Week 2), but they came together and finished as a top-10 rushing unit. They will still be a great until against the run and will be great pass rushing, but still struggle against the pass otherwise. Finishing in the middle of the league is the best they can hope for.
3. Tennessee Titans -
Fantasy Focus -
Quarterbacks - After getting benched to start last year, Vince Young has securely grabbed the starting role. He's a below average passer with below average receiving talent. He does pull the ball down and run every now and then so there is added fantasy value there. Let's face it, this is a run-first, run-second, and throw to Chris Johnson on third down offense. Vince Young is a decent fill-in for your starting quarterback's by week, but not much else.
Running Back - Chris Johnson. Done and done. Alright, I'll give you a little more. Last year all CJ did was run for over 2,000 yards, catch passes for over 500 yards, and score 16 total touchdowns. He also had three touchdown runs of 85 yards or more last year, as many as any other player in NFL history has had in their career. Read that last sentence again slowly and let it sink in....Walter Payton, Emmit Smith, Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Marshall Faulk. Think of those names and that sentence. AND...he did all of that with LenDale White on the team. Even with White he was clearly the only offensive weapon on the team and he still couldn't be stopped. White is gone now and there is some concern that CJ's touches will be limited to prevent injury, but all of the hype is still warranted. In standard leagues he is the best. In PPR leagues he is the best. In touchdown only leagues he is the best. In leagues that give bonuses for long touchdown he is definitely the best. He probably won't get 2,000 yards rushing again, but 1,800 and another 500 receiving with double digit touchdowns should be expected. He should be the first player taken off the board in every fantasy draft. If you draft CJ and for some reason are worried about injury, draft rookie LeGarrette Blount and hope CJ doesn't go down. Javon Ringer and Alvin Pearman (Wahoo-Wa!) aren't worth drafting.
Receiving - Dave's boy Kenny Britt (from Rutgers) is the only Tennessee player that is a starting fantasy WR, and even he is only a borderline WR3. Nate Washington and Justin Gage are worth a bench spot, but none of the receivers will be worth much more unless the Titans start to throw the ball more. Tennessee is clearly a run first offense, always keep that in mind. Tight end Bo Scaife is currently a starter. He gets yards but few touchdowns. He is a borderline fantasy starter at best. Keep an eye on back-up TE Jared Cook. The Titans like him, he has huge upside, and he may be a great waiver wire pick-up in season.
Defense/ST - The Titans defense has lost a lot of veteran presence; Kyle Vanden Bosch, Keith Bulluck, etc. This has made way for young talent and I think the Titans are a sleeper to be a top-10 fantasy unit.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterbacks - David Garrard has had two seasons in which he started 16 games. He had nearly identical seasons...roughly 3,600 yards in each season. He threw 17 TD's in one season and 18 TD's in the other. And that was with zero at receiver. He is much better option at home (2,100 yards last year), so Garrard is a good bye week start if he is at home, but not much more.
Running Backs - Starter Maurice Jones-Drew is a fantasy stud. He is only 5'7" but is strong and built like a bowling ball. There may be a risk of him wearing down, but in the short term he is a top-3 option at running back. Rashad Jennings is Mojo-D's back-up. Draft Jennings to handcuff Mojo and pray to God you don't have to use him.
Receiving - Jacksonville's receiving corps is full of fantasy also rans. Their top option, Mike Sims-Walker, is a mid-level WR3. Their second receiver, Mike Thomas, is only worth drafting as the last back-up in the deepest of leagues. QB Garrard has his best games at home, so Sims-Walker and Thomas will be used as bye week fill-ins, as long as they are playing at home. Starting tight end Marcedes Lewis doesn't score many touchdowns, so he is a fantasy back-up at best. Keep an eye on back-up tight end Zach Miller. He had a huge game in Week 17 of last year (8 catches, 69 yards, 2 TD's), so he might start getting more looks.
Defense/ST - They used to be one of the best. They stink now. They also have the brutal misfortune of having to play the other offenses in the AFC South twice a year. Yup, that's two games each against CJ, Peyton Manning and the Colts, and Andre 3000. Six games, also read 40-50% of your fantasy regular season. They aren't worth any fantasy consideration, even in the deepest of leagues.
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