There was the prediction of the new "Big Three" proposed by former ESPN blowhard Stephen A. Smith that LeBron would be teaming with Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade to form the NBA's newest super-team. Once the obvious bleakness of that scenario set into the thick skull of Smith, he backpedaled like Darrelle Revis covering an out route. Since then, names have been tossed around, seemingly off an All-Star ballot, of guys who could, should or would team with LeBron when King James signs with Team X. On top of the "Big Three" theory, there was LeBron joining Amare Stoudemire in New York and then being joined by buddy and former high school rival Carmelo Anthony(who may or may not be on the trading block, depending on who you talk to). There was also talk of Anthony being subbed out of that equation in exchange for Warriors guard Monta Ellis(via a sign-and-trade for David Lee). There was what I like to call "The Amare Plan", in which Stoudemire(interviewed outside a NY theater) waxed poetically about the idea of a LeBron-Amare-Tony Parker trio.
However, one superstar who has been mentioned in trade talks on and off the last couple of months has managed to stir clear of being offered up as a suggestion to join LeBron and the Superfriends: New Orleans Hornets point guard Chris Paul.
Paul has been mentioned in trade talks over the last couple of weeks as the the notoriously cheap Hornets have been playing the PR game in an effort to send out feelers. One minute, there's talk that Paul can be had and that offers have been made(such as the Nets offer of Devin Harris and the 3rd pick for CP3, that was inevitably turned down. As was Portland's offer of Andre Miller, Joel Pryzbilla, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless and the 22nd overall pick for Paul and Emeka Okafor) and each proposal seems to get shot down by current owner George Shinn.
My theory on the trade block, in any sport, is that, if there wasn't even the slighest possibility a team was willing to deal their superstar, these reports would never see the light of day. Remember how Andy Reid tried to tell people he wasn't trading Donovan McNabb weeks before McNabb went to Washington? The same goes for the Hornets and Chris Paul. The Hornets, under Shinn, have a long history of dealing superstars(Kobe Bryant, J.R. Smith, Alonzo Mourning, Eddie Jones, Glen Rice, Anthony Mason, Baron Davis, Larry Johnson....to name a few) and I have no reason to believe a penny pincher like Shinn won't do the same with his franchise guard. Shinn may have rejected offers thus far, but I believe that has something to do with his attempt at selling the team. After all, who wants a team in a small market that just traded away its only box office draw. So once the Hornets are sold, I fully expect the CP3 trade talk to heat up again. That date, however, is unknown and right now, CP3's trade value has gotten a few bites. The Blazers and Nets are obviously interested. So are the Knicks. Obviously, those teams can't give fair value back for the man whom I regard as the best point guard in the game and who would seem to be a consensus Top 3 at his position. But what about the Cavs? They certainly don't have the assets or cap to sign LeBron AND bring in a legit #2 like Bosh or Wade. They would need someone who would give them an elite player simply for the reason of alleviating some cap room. The Cavs are also DESPERATE to keep LeBron as James' departure would crush basketball in Cleveland. Enter the Hornets, who always want to save money and who may lose Paul if the team doesn't start competing NOW. With that in mind, I made a conspiracy theory of my own.
The Deal: The Hornets trade PG Chris Paul and C Emeka Okafor to Cleveland for G Mo Williams, F J.J. Hickson, F Antawn Jamison, and G Sebastian Telfair and a conditional first round pick
Why It Works For New Orleans: Obviously, it allows them to get out of the Okafor deal they should have never gotten into last year anyway. It also allows them to get something(albeit nowhere near value) for CP3 if they truly feel he will bolt after 2012. Okafor is due $10.7 million this upcoming season and still has 3 years after next year remaining on the 6-year, $72 million deal he signed with Charlotte two years ago. Paul, meanwhile, is due $13.5 million and still has another year on his deal after the 2011 season. By jettisoning Okafor's remaining deal and by getting out of paying a triple-digit contract to their star point guard in the near future, the Hornets save over $100 million. Granted, attendance will be crap and fan revolt will be high, but that's never stopped the Hornets before.
Meanwhile, in the pieces they get back from the Cavs, they get a scoring guard in Mo Williams, who does his best work in the regular season before choking in the playoffs(which, without Paul, the Hornets won't have to worry about). They can finally pull the trigger on dealing All-Star forward David West, who can opt out next year and who has been on the trading block for years. They can replace West with Jamison in the short term and then J.J. Hickson, whom the Cavs were so fond of they turned down an Amare deal when asked to include Hickson in the trade, long-term. The loss of Okafor leaves a hole at center, but Okafor was barely averaging a double-double(10 points and 9 rebounds a game....pedestrian numbers for a guy getting paid nearly $11 million) and his production can be replaced by either Hickson or a mid-level free agent. Telfair and Williams' deals expire after next season, which means that is money that comes off the books quick( and Jamison expires after 2012. The team will rebuild with lottery picks and hope to go hard in 2012 when guys like Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, and O.J. Mayo are free agents(Note: Kevin Durant is a FA in 2011, but I doubt he leaves Oklahoma City).
Why It Works For Cleveland: It gives the Cavs a piece to wave in front of LeBron to get him to re-sign. Chris Paul is the total package point guard. He's a rare breed in that he looks to set up teammates first(something Mo Williams and Delonte West fail at). He can create his own shot. He's an improving three-point shooter and he's excellent defensively. In Okafor, while overpaid and a bit of a bust, they get a solid post defender who, ideally, can be rebounding machine and hold his own inside. Teaming Okafor with Varajao gives the Cavs a solid 1-2 inside and the combination of Okafor, Paul and LeBron makes the Cavs a top of the line defensive team. There's also the presence of new Cavs coach Byron Scott, who was Paul's coach in New Orleans the last few years. Now, speculation surfaced that Scott's firing was the result of players tuning him out but there has been nothing publicly fingering Paul as one of those guys. Scott knows what Paul can do and how to best utilize him. Plus, Paul can spend the next five or six years defending James' arch nemesis Rajon Rondo, something Williams and West and others couldn't do in this past season's playoffs. Financially, they don't add too much since Williams could have opted out next season, Telfair's deal was up next year and Hickson and Jamison were free agents after 2012. For the price of losing them, they get to re-up Paul and pair him with James for the next 10 years have two 25-year old bookends to contend for a title with.
Now, the deal is farfetched and, obviously, I can't see the deal being done before Wade and others come to a decision on their fates this week. However, let's say Paul is a Cavalier by Wednesday and the presence of CP3 convinces LeBron to re-sign with Cleveland. What domino effect does that have on the other big players in this year's summer blockbuster. Glad you asked.
New York Knicks: With their biggest fish deciding to swim in the Ohio ocean, the Knicks will have to resort to a bevy of other options. For one, Amare is going to be Knick by nightfall. Reports are already surfacing he's close to a 5-year, $100 million deal with New York. Assuming that's true(and everything I've read and seen from Amare would suggest it is), the Knicks can move to their next big fish: Carmelo Anthony. 'Melo's a free agent after next year and, while he's the biggest superstar the Nuggets have seen since Alex English, he's had his moments of being a knucklehead. Anthony was also a huge star at Syracuse and a trip back to New York may be a bigger coup for New Yorkers than signing LeBron(OK, maybe not, but it would be close).
A deal for 'Melo will definitely include restricted free agent power forward David Lee and either Danilo Gallinari or Wilson Chandler(Chandler being the most likely, but you have to think Denver would want Gallo). The Knicks will then attempt to make another move for Tony Parker who, like Paul and 'Melo, is one of those guys who is being mentioned in trade talks while their employers are denying that they are available. It seems outlandish that the Knicks can swing a deal for both Anthony and Parker but crazier things have happened. The Knicks have Lee, Chandler, Gallo and Eddy Curry's expiring contract as trade chips and, in a bad NBA economy, they might be able to get a discount in the value department(especially if all the wooing to New York makes 'Melo more disenfranchised about playing in Denver and the Nuggets start to really think about dealing him before next year).
If they strike out on 'Melo and T.P.(Note: I'm already assuming Wade and Bosh aren't coming to town....and I'll get to why shortly), they move on to two guys that give Knicks fans chills: the aforementioned Monta Ellis and the mercurial Gilbert Arenas. Both men are Grade A headcases signed to bad deals who their teams would trade for a bag of peanuts. The question is, are the Knicks willing to bring in yet another knucklehead with a big price tag after years of dealing with the Stephon Marburys of the world? The answer is probably no, but Knicks fans have been waiting two years for their team to make moves this summer and all these reports about who is coming to New York is whetting their appetite. If the Knicks come up empty-handed, they'll have to put tanks on the Brooklyn Bridge. Arenas and Ellis are both talented scorers and their presence is certainly an upgrade over Larry Hughes. They'll also come for cheap as I can't see Golden State or Washington getting too greedy if it means finally getting rid of the huge thorns that have been in their side. Again, it's a desperation move. For now, they have Amare in the fold and he's going to be their biggest flag waver. You have to think Stoudemire wouldn't have signed this deal if he didn't think he could get another big fish to join him in New York's fish bowl.
Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade: With LeBron out of the fold, you have to think one isn't going anywhere without the other. That could mean Chicago. That could mean Miami. That could even mean New Jersey. My money is on Chicago. They have a better team to put around Wade and Bosh with Joakim Noah, Loul Deng and Derrick Rose, whereas Miami has Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers and a slew of vets making league minimum. New Jersey would be interesting but Wade's current custody battle back home pretty much makes this a choice of two different types of loyalty: loyalty to his kids and family or loyalty to Pat Riley and the city of Miami. Ultimately, I think Chi-Town wins out(Truth be told, I'm hoping for Wade and Bosh to choose Chicago just so Smith's prediction goes up and flames and we can finally put the nail in that loudmouth idiot's coffin. Goodbye ESPN, Hello BET, Mr. Smith). Bosh seems like he has a moderate interest in returning to his home in Texas as he has wined and dined with the Rockets and Mavs, but the Raptors have been less receptive about giving Bosh a sign and trade. That means Bosh will just have to sign with someone outright. With Amare in New York and James in Cleveland, Bosh pretty much has to choose between continuing to be his own man in a place like Jersey or Miami, or saddling up with Wade and making a run together.
Chicago, Miami, New Jersey: One of these teams will get the Wade-Bosh consolation prize, and the other two will be left twirling in the wind. Right now, Chicago and Miami are the top two contenders for Flash and Avatar, and Chicago's got the edge by having the ability to tug at Wade's heartstrings. The two teams that miss out will then fight over Carlos Boozer. Miami is going to be the most desperate since they seemed like a lock to keep Wade and now look like they can go 0-for-6 in the biggest free agent class in recent memory. New Jersey, meanwhile, still has a young core and plenty of cap room. Plus, they have a state-of-the-art arena being built in Brooklyn to lure big time free agents in two years. Also, while they have the most interesting of front office structures, nobody really gave the Nets more than a puncher's chance of being the big winners this summer. As someone who grew up in Newark, I know it isn't the kind of place that lures big time stars to spend the their careers, even if it's only temporary. Miami, however, has the lure of South Beach. For them to strike out like this would not only be a huge shock but a huge disappointment. With a potential lockout coming, you wonder if it might even end basketball in Miami altogether(I know, it's a stretch, but it wasn't like Miami was selling out games WITH Dwayne Wade).
Carlos Boozer: He's the last and quietest of "The Mercenary Six". Boozer's dealings haven't registered on the radar because his fate is going to be determined by where Bosh and Amare go first. If Bosh goes to Chicago and with Amare in New York, Boozer gets to choose between the beaches of Miami or the eventual glitz of playing in New York by signing with Nets. Chicago is in play if somehow Miami or New Jersey get the Flash-Avatar doggy bag, but let's assume that Chicago ends up with that dynamic duo. In Miami, Boozer will be a one-man army. Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley aren't guys you contend for a title with. If they were, Dwayne Wade wouldn't have opted out and wouldn't be considering a new home. You have to remember, Boozer is coming off a perennial contender in Utah. He made playoff runs in Cleveland. He went to Duke. The guy has been bred a winner since Day 1. He isn't going to take a boatload of money to play in front of half-filled arenas on a 25-win team. As star-studded as this class of free agents is, it drops after "The Mercenary Six". Mike Miller? Derek Fisher? Kwame Brown? Not exactly guys who stars are dying to play with. In New Jersey, Boozer will have Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, and Devin Harris. He'll have cap room and the luxury of playing in a brand new arena in New York, the biggest sports market in America. The Nets could throw a max at Boozer and still make a run at a Carmelo Anthony or a O.J. Mayo either through free agency or by dangling one of their young pieces. Miami can't do that. If star free agents don't want to come to the beach now, they aren't coming anytime soon.
How I See It All Shaking Out: I don't see the Paul-to-Cavs trade ever getting done but it's certainly something Cleveland should consider. Really, the Cavs are trying to sell LeBron on the idea of "This is your home" as a reason for him to stay. Yes, the Cavs are a 60-win team with him in the fold, but they aren't a championship team. Inevitably, as great as being home is for LeBron, his legacy will be judged by the number of rings on his finger. You can't replace that with videos about fart jokes and a bunch of steel workers with billboards. The Knicks have a piece in Stoudemire that is significantly better than what Cleveland has on paper. The Nets and Heat can offer him a chance to team with Wade or Bosh or maybe even both. The Bulls can offer a similar package, plus Rose and Noah.
I've been saying LeBron's leaving for quite some time and I still believe it. Some odd feeling tells me that LeBron and Wade team up in Chicago and the Bulls work a sign and trade to get Bosh in the fold. I see Boozer ending up in New Jersey, where he will eventually be joined by Chis Paul(as a Hornets fan for 15 years, I know how this team operates. They aren't aggressive enough to put a winner around Paul anytime soon and GM Jeff Bower seems enamored with last year's rookie sensation, point guard Darren Collison. This team will either deal Paul early or watch him leave as a free agent. Either way, Paul's days in NOLA are numbered. If you're a Hornets fan, the fact that the team is LISTENING to CP3 offers has to be unsettling). The Knicks, who now have Amare, swing a deal for 'Melo and Gilbert Arenas and the NBA becomes MLB, where there are 6 or 7 elite teams and everybody else constantly tries to rebuild to keep up with the pact. I see Miami and New Orleans suffering the most and I see the NBA, with attendance down and the stars now aligned in the NBA's biggest cities, start to seriously consider contraction when they go to the table for the new collective bargaining agreement.
However, if my Dirk prediction going south is any indication, you should probably believe my predictions as much as the brainfarts of Stephen A. Smith.
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