Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The All-Breakout Team

Every football season, a small group of guys whose names you never heard of before emerge from the pack and become household names. Last year, we had Miles Austin. A couple years before that, we had Austin's QB, Tony Romo. There are others: Chris Johnson(sort of), Micheal Turner, Wes Welker, Tom Brady, etc. The overwhelming amount of attention given to a handful of big names(cough..cough...Brett Favre...cough cough) by a sports media that insists upon dwelling on just a couple big stories tends to leave guys like the Austins and Romos of the world go unnoticed. For instance, you will probably not hear the name "Jonathan Joesph" much this year because ESPN(and other sports networks) will be too busy giving you up-to-the-minute coverage of Darrelle Revis' contract holdout.



Fear not, undervalued NFL pros.....as a website developed by two unrecognized by highly capable individuals....let us help you get recognized. I've comprised a team of guys whose names you should keep in the back of your mind throughout this season(Note: I left off offensive linemen because it's tough to really pick a breakout star at a position with no real stats). So, without further ado, here goes BoomRoastedSports' 2010 All-Breakout Team



QB: Matthew Stafford, Lions: I gave you Chad Henne and Alex Smith in my fantasy football piece a couple months ago, and yes, I understand it isn't much of a stretch to call last year's #1 overall pick a "breakout star in the making", but two things you have to consider: 1. The overwhelming amount of failure the last few years of QBs taken #1 overall(JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Tim Couch, to name a few) and 2. The even more overwhelming amount of terrible draft picks by the Detroit Lions over the last decade(Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers, Ernie Sims, The Williams boys, Kevin Jones). Stafford has the opportunity this year to shatter both of those stigmas. He'll(hopefully) have a healthy big-time target in the man known as "Megatron", Calvin Johnson, and he has a couple of other sneaky options as well(former Seahawk Nate Burleson, fellow second-year player Brandon Pettigrew at TE and all-purpose home run threat and rookie RB Jahvid Best). Stafford threw 20 INTs last year, which is going to happen to a rookie still getting adjusted, but he has a howitzer for an arm, an all-world talent at wideout and will be playing from behind ALOT this year. Would 3,500 yards, 25 TDs and around 15 picks surprise me this year? Nope....and it shouldn't surprise you, either.



RB: Justin Forsett, Seahawks: Maybe it's a West Coast bias that has folks sleeping on Justin Forsett. Maybe it's the fact that he's stuck on a depth chart with the perennially underwhelming Julius Jones and 2010's comeback kid Leon Washington. Maybe it's the fact the Seahawks have been dreadful the last two years. All of those may or may not be legitimate reasons to be unfamiliar with former Cal Bear jitterbug Justin Forsett. However, those reasons will be unacceptable by time the regular season kicks off. Forsett was Seattle's best back last year which, granted, isn't saying much, but still. He had 619 yards on 114 attempts playing on a team with a patchwork offensive line and a subpar passing game. Yes, new coach Pete Carroll is going to probably spread things around between his three backs, but all that is just going to delay this inevitable fact: That Justin Forsett should be the 'Hawks primary back and that he wants the ball and he's going to score. In the two games Forsett saw legit action last year(read: more than 15 carries), Forsett posted 100 yard games against Arizona in Week 10(17 carries, 123 yards and a TD) and the Week 12 matchup against St. Louis(22 carries, 130 yards and 2 TD). He even has capability out of the backfield as a receiver(as seen by his 8 catches for 80 yard performance against Minnesota last season). He's a poor man's Reggie Bush. Quick, agile, elusive and versatile and he'll be putting Julius Jones on the unemployment line or the bench by Week 3.



WR: Javon Walker(Vikings)/Lance Moore(Saints): These two aren't really "breakout" candidates as much as "welcome back" guys. Moore had his breakout year in 2008 when he caught 79 passes for 978 yards and 10 scores while Drew Brees was trying his damnedest to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yard record. Injuries sidelined most of his 2009 season and all the hubbub from the Saints' Super Bowl run made Moore a forgotten man in arguably the NFL's most explosive offense. Now, he's back and he's healthy and just because defenses and analysts may have forgotten about him, doesn't mean Brees has and it definitely doesn't mean you should. He's a bit on the small side(5'9 190) but he has a nose for the endzone. Will he replicate 2008? Probably not. Can he come close? Absolutely.



Walker, meanwhile, was once a big time receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Then, he got greedy, held out, demanded a trade, feuded with Brett Favre(back when Favre was a good guy and not a media circus-loving drama queen) and then tore his ACL in his final season in Green Bay. That inevitably led to a trade to Denver and Walker was eventually replaced in Green Bay by Greg Jennings. While with the Broncos, he had a solid first season(69 rec., 1,084 yards and 8 TDs) but then became more known for holding teammate and close friend Darrent Williams in his arms as Williams took his last breaths. The death of Williams and a myriad of injuries led to lackluster seasons with Denver and, eventually, Oakland. Now, he's reunited with Favre in Minnesota and familiarity with "The Riverboat Gambler" may net J-Dub a few looks while he(and others) try to fill the void left by Sidney Rice(who will miss the first half of the season and maybe more as he recovers from hip surgery). Walker's a wild card at this point but he knows Favre, knows the offense and, as Randy Moss proved his first year in New England, sometimes all you need to wash away the stench of your stint in Oakland is a second chance and a capable QB. Walker now has both.



WR: James Hardy, Bills: Hardy is currently at the bottom of the Bills' depth chart and looks like a good shot to be cut before the season starts. Trust me. That's a good thing. Hardy's issues have never been talent. It has been health. Injuries shortened his season last year and he was only good for one catch for nine yards on a Bills team that struggled to move the ball through the air anyway. When the team let T.O. go and didn't bring anyone in of note, the thought process was Hardy was going to step in and take over as the possession complement to the speedy Lee Evans. However, injuries have slowed him in camp and he's now sixth among the wideouts behind such big time talents like Chad Jackson, David Nelson and Steve Johnson. Who, you may ask? Exactly. The fact that Hardy is behind such mediocre nobodies shouldn't discourage you from believing in him. Once Hardy hits the open market(or even manages to stage a huge comeback with Buffalo), his impressive skill set will reward whoever picks him off the scrap heap. Remember, the Giants thought Ryan Grant was nothing to worry about and traded him to Green Bay. Now, only one back has more yards than Grant over the last three years(Adrian Peterson, in case you were wondering). Hardy could be that kind of guy. He's big and tall(6'5, 220) and on a team that needs size and depth at wideout(perhaps San Diego after Vincent Jackson gets traded or maybe a team like St. Louis, which could use a big target for $90 million man Sam Bradford), which makes him the ideal red zone guy. Hardy's only 24. He's played just two seasons and he still has a ton of potential. Whether he starts in Buffalo or gets a look elsewhere, he's worth keeping an eye on.



TE: Jermichael Finley, Packers: If I can be a homer for a second, Jermicheal Finley is set to blow up like nitro this year. He's already proven to be Aaron Rodgers' safety valve in the preseason and, on a team that throws quite a bit(and throws deep, mind you), that means he's about to rack up some big numbers. Finley came on as threat late last season when Rodgers was getting a little more time to throw and was able to go through his progressions. What A-Rod found as he scanned the field was a 6'5, 247 beast who was too fast for linebackers and just too big and athletic for safeties and corners. With Donald Driver the key possession guy, Greg Jennings the deep threat, and Ryan Grant out on the flat, Finley isn't going to see too much coverage in the middle of the field. If Rodgers gets better protection this year, he will find Finley on some deep slants over the middle. Finley is every bit as freakishly athletic as last year's breakout star Vernon Davis, and it wouldn't surprise me if Finley puts up the same numbers this year that V.D. did last year(78 catches, 965 yards and 13 TDs)



DE: Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants: Every chance I've gotten this year, I've warned readers about Giants rookie DE Jason Pierre-Paul. This is yet another P.S.A. on J.P.P. Quarterbacks, be afraid. Be VERY afraid. JPP is currently sequestered on a Giants DE depth chart behind heavy hitters like Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka, but the Giants rotating of their defensive line will allow Pierre-Paul to do what he does best: Get after the quarterback. Last year, at USF, Pierre-Paul took advantage of the attention given to pass-rush dynamo George Selvie and made offenses pay. This year, in the few moments he'll have a game, he'll do the same. Look, even as the game has evolved, offensive lineman(sans a few here and there) are still not physically gifted enough to compete with the speedy, athletic pass rushers they are asked to keep at bay. How many offensive lines in the NFL will really be deep enough to stop JPP on one end and whomever of the Tuck/Kiwi/Osi troika that lines up on the other end? Not many. Am I saying JPP is walking away with the Defensive Rookie of the Year this year? No(although he's a good dark horse). Could he rack up 8 or 9 sacks on this offensive line because coordinators spend too much time game-planning for the other big names on the Giants roster? Absolutely. Look at the offensive line depth charts for the teams in the NFC East and then tell me you can't see JPP taking Winston Justice to school like Osi did a few years ago.



DE: Tyler Brayton, Panthers: Brayton edged out Atlanta's Lawrence Sidbury after the way he abused Ravens' All-Pro tackle Michael Oher a couple weeks ago on ESPN. Brayton's been around a while(first round pick in 2003), but like many people drafted by the Raiders, he was drowning a slow death in Oakland. Now, he's filling in the void left open by Julius Peppers' departure to Chicago and Brayton has the chops to be a suitable replacement. Brayton isn't the type of undersized speedster that has become the norm at the position since the emergence of Colts DE Dwight Freeney. Instead, Brayton is more the Aaron Kampman-type: a high-motor guy who dominates with power and hustle. With promising youngster Everette Brown(another guy to watch this year) on the other side, Brayton snatch a few sacks this year. He won't be Julius Peppers, but he won't be drowning a slow death either.



DT: Amobi Okoye, Texans: Chances are, if you follow the NFL Draft like I do(and you probably don't), you know the name Amobi Okoye. Okoye was drafted out of Louisville as the youngest first round pick ever at just 20 years old. He had a respectable rookie season(5.5 sacks) but has kind of disappeared quietly due to injuries and just a plain lack of production(as well as the come-uppance of DE Mario Williams). However, this Texans defense continues to evolve and, when looked upon from afar, it has the makings of being vastly underrated. You know about Super Mario. You know about LBs DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing. You know about "The Season Killer" Bernard Pollard at safety. You may even eventually get to know Kareem Jackson, the rookie corner out of Alabama. This year, you might also get reintroduced to Okoye. Okoye is still only 23 years old and, as the team continues to find more pieces to their defense, offensive coordinators are going to give Okoye some favorable matchups simply because they can't account for all the young talent on this defense. As he continues to learn the game, Okoye will become more of the terror inside that Houston thought he would be when they chose him with the 10th overall pick in 2007. Okoye has 8.5 career sacks in his three years. With Williams and Cushing drawing a majority of the attention, I could see Okoye matching his career total this season.



(Side note: With so many teams moving to the 3-4, it's tough to find enough DTs that will put up the kind of numbers that would deem them worthy of being called "breakout" guys. After all, most big men inside are being used to clog the middle, not get to the passer. If I had to pick ANYONE as a sneaky 2nd DT, it would be Bucs rookie DT Brian Price. He was a beast at UCLA, knows how to get to the QB and won't get the pub that fellow rookie and 3rd overall pick Gerald McCoy will get. Keep an eye on both of them though.)



OLB: Micheal Johnson, Bengals: I told you in the AFC North preview to do your homework on freakish Cincy LB/DE Micheal Johnson, and he made me proud by putting on a show against Dallas in the Hall of Fame game. Micheal Johnson is like Achilles in the movie Troy: He's not to be controlled, he's to be unleashed. He's huge(6'7, 268) and ridiculously fast and athletic. He'll probably only see work in passing situations and be asked to get after the QB, but role suits him just fine. Johnson is a bit of a knucklehead and, on most teams, that would be a problem. On a team loaded with knuckleheads, Johnson fits right in. He just needs to get his head in the game. He showed flashes of that with his pair of sacks against Dallas' B-team in the preseason opener. The Bengals' pass rush doesn't have one proven pass rusher(their top sack guy was Antwan Odom, and he's coming back from a serious injury) and will open the door for Johnson and the 10-15 snaps a game he'll get to run down some quarterbacks.



OLB: Cameron Wake, Dolphins: The Dolphins waved goodbye to Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, their chief pass rush threats on the outside in their 3-4 scheme. Enter Cameron Wake, who was a beast in Canada during his days in CFL. Wake even notched 5.5 sacks last year in his first NFL season, even with Taylor and Porter ahead of him. Now, the show is his. The Dolphins defense may lack experience and name recognition, but it has some promise and, if nothing else, Wake will put big numbers in the two games he'll play against the Bills(who may actually be worse than most CFL teams this year).



ILB: David Harris, Jets: In the Tri-State area, David Harris' name rings bells. Fans of Gang Green know that Harris is a tackling machine and the unsung hero of what is expected to be a very good Jets defense. After this season, the Meadowlands' best kept secret will be revealed. Harris finds himself in a weird situation. He'll be playing in a contract year on a Super Bowl contender in the country's largest market on a defense that is conserve its money to pay the unit's biggest star, Darrelle Revis. On top of that, there's the uncertainty as to whether there will even be football next season. Regardless, Harris will continue to do his job, which is hitting every thing in sight and being the quiet counterpart to loudmouth and fellow inside linebacker Bart Scott. With Kris Jenkins healthy and hungry and opening up gaps up front, Harris is going to pile up tackles and will move a step closer to becoming a household name.



ILB: Curtis Lofton, Falcons: Like Harris, Curtis Lofton is a heat-seeking missle who detonates on ball-carriers. He racked up 133 tackles on a defense with not much talent outside of him. Now, he has another young linebacker in first rounder Sean Weatherspoon to help him out, as well as the presence of corner Dunta Robinson in the secondary, as well as last year's top pick Peria Jerry opening up gaps in the middle. Lofton doesn't put up the type of Patrick Willis-esque flashy numbers. He won't rack up a ton of sacks. He won't pick too many passes off, but he's still going to put up a high volume of tackles and, with more talent around him, he may be able to do more things now that the load on his shoulders has lessened.



CB: Brandon Flowers, Chiefs: Flowers has moonlighted the last two years as the best player in the Chiefs secondary(I know, not a difficult task) and that has led to a respectable seven picks in two seasons. Not bad for a guy on a defense with no pass rush or much talent in general. This year, Kansas City got Flowers a tag team partner in 5th overall pick and Monte Kiffin man-crush Eric Berry. Berry is the most highly touted safety prospect we've seen since the late Sean Taylor and his presence makes the Chiefs' D a bit more respectable(respectable enough to have me pick them to win the AFC West). The fear of testing Berry deep may help out Flowers and give him more opportunities to make plays. Flowers is also a very capable tackler, despite being just 5'9. He may be this generation's Aaron Glenn, and with the Chiefs' defense improving and Berry getting the pub in the secondary, this might be the year Flowers gets the credit he deserves.

CB: Jonathan Joesph, Bengals: It was a toss-up between Joesph and Miami's Vontae Davis. I really wanted to avoid putting more than one person from the same team, but since I mentioned J.J. in the intro, I felt he deserved his own space. Joesph's name doesn't come up when talking about the league's top corners, partly because he plays for a team that has largely been a laughingstock for the past two decades(until last year) and he doesn't have the reputation(yet) of a Charles Woodson or a Darrelle Revis. However, what Joesph does have, is a quality season under his belt, which is what last year's campaign was. 6 INTs(same as Revis, one of which a house call), 68 tackles and two forced fumbles(You could also make the case for Joesph's teammate Leon Hall, who had the same amount of picks and a couple more tackles). Like Micheal Johnson, Joesph will be playing a key role on a Bengals defense hungry to gain the respect they feel is lacking following last year's AFC North domination(laying down in your last two games will do that to you, Cincy. Sorry). With Hall on the other side, teams can't avoid Joesph like most offenses will avoid Revis or Woodson this year, which means another Pro Bowl-calibur season may be in the works in 2010. Don't say I didn't warn you.

S: Tom Zbikowski, Ravens: Zibby was a YouTube sensation before he even laced them up for Baltimore. For one, he played for the most over-exposed college program in the history of sports: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish. When he wasn't lowering the boom for the Irish, however, Zbikowski was delivering blows in the boxing ring. Zbikowski's legend as a hard-hitting safety who also possessed the knack for making plays in the return game combined with his reputation for knocking people the hell out made him the perfect member of a Ravens defense that already possesses the most intimidating linebacker in football(Ray Lewis). With All-Pro safety Ed Reed on the sidelines for the first eight games(if he comes back at all) due to a hip injury, the job is Zibby's to lose. A guy with a pension for laying people out? On this defense? Where do I sign up?

S: Dashon Goldson, 49ers: While you listen to sports anchors wax poetically about Rex Ryan's all-star defense or the physicality of the Ravens' unit or the Giants or Vikings for the next few months, allow me to warn you that the 49ers defense will be serious this year. Why do people avoid talking about the San Fran's D? Well, for one, the Niners haven't played a meaningful game since 2002. Also, they don't have another big name beyond middle linebacker Patrick Willis. Well, that is, until the end of this season when you people will wisely start recognizing free safety Dashon Goldson. Now, you'll be forgiven if you weren't familiar with Goldson prior to last year's big year. Before racking up 94 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 4 INTs last year, Goldson had all of 36 tackles in his first two seasons. Of course, he also didn't play a full season in those two years before becoming the starter in the deep middle in 2009. This year, Goldson may very well get overlooked again as, at some point, he will be joined at safety by former USC Trojan and athletic freak Taylor Mays. Mays will get all the pub because he's built like a tight end, runs like a scat back and hits like Jay Mariotti after two shots of Patron(first Mariotti joke....trust me, there WILL be more. Thanks for living up to the Italian stereotype, Jay. You coward). While Mays opens your eyes, you should use them to watch Goldson as he will once again be all over the field and the Niners will be all over your set as they are(spoiler alert) my favorite to win a weak NFC West.

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