NFC East Preview

After a brief break in-between previews, here's our look at the NFC East

DAVE:

1. New York Giants - Inconsistency and injuries on defense last season overshadowed the fact that the Giants managed to answer the biggest question they had entering the 2009 campaign: Can they replace Plaxico Burress and keep their passing game alive? It turns out Big Blue could replace Plax's production by spreading it around to a group of receivers who don't have the talent individually that Burress had, but can still get the job done as a unit. Steve Smith emerged as a solid go-to guy, rookie Hakeem Nicks provided some big plays when he was healthy and there was even a few Mario Manningham sightings. However, for as good as the Giants' passing game was, the defense surprisingly fell flat. Despite adding guys like Chris Canty to an already impressive defensive line, the pass rush wasn't what it was when the team won the Super Bowl just a couple years ago.

This year, the Giants added even more talent to that defensive line as well as improved a secondary that was routinely getting burnt to a crisp. New York used its first round pick on South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who is freakishly athletic yet maddeningly raw. On a line that already has Canty, Osi Umenyiora, Mathias Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck, not much will be asked of JPP, which is why I think he'll be one of the 2010 Draft class' breakout stars. The linebacking core got a slight boost by swapping out Antonio Pierce for former Titans tackling machine Keith Bulluck. In the secondary, the team brought in safety Antrel Rolle to patrol the deep center and provide protection for young corners Terrell Thomas and Aaron Ross. The team also signed Deon Grant from Seattle to bridge the gap until promising-yet-injured safety Kenny Phillips returns from a knee injury. In a division filled with teams that are going to pass a lot, a defense with this much pass-rushing depth on the defensive line and so much talent in the secondary makes the Giants a very scary team in the NFC East.


Offensively, the Giants made another sneaky pick-up off the scrap heap today, agreeing to terms with 3-time Pro Bowler and former Eagles guard Shawn Andrews. As if stopping 260lb Brandon Jacobs inside wasn't tough enough, there's now the added obstacle of trying to get through a road-grading mauler like Andrews(if he's healthy). If the Giants get Andrews at even 90% of what he was in Philly, the Giants' offense may match the D in terms of dominance. The key, of course, is QB Eli Manning and his ability to overcome his struggles with throwing into the swirling winter winds. If there's an Achilles heel on this offense, it's Manning's tendency to float a couple bad passes when the weather gets bad. Of course, that problem may be minimized if the Giants decide to just let Jacobs mow over defenses in December and January, but if the team gets behind early, Manning has to prove he can sling it.

So, once again, the Giants are impressive on paper and, once again, there are questions for the team to answer. Can Eli Manning be an elite QB when the winds swirl in the Meadowlands? Can the defense live up to its hype with all that talent on the roster? Or will the Giants be the same disappointing bunch they were last year? Only time will tell, but history has shown that teams with this much talent don't underwhelm two years in a row.





2. Dallas Cowboys* - I get a lot of static for being--how do I say this diplomatically--pessimistic of the Dallas Cowboys. Perhaps it stems from years of watching my Packers fall to the Cowboys during the early 90's. Maybe it's because Cowboys fans have been so obnoxious over the years. Or maybe it's because the team has won ONE playoff game in the last decade and I'd rather have them prove they are a contender to me than just declare them one. With all that said, what I'm about to say is only going to add fuel to the "You're a Cowboys hater!" fire. I think the Cowboys are going to be 2010's biggest disappointment this year. Many people have them hosting the Super Bowl this year, but I just can't see it. For one, I need to see, in a game of consequence, that Doug Free can adequately replace longtime Pro Bowl left tackle Flozell Adams. Free did an admirable job in the Hall of Fame Game against the Bengals, but that was one series in a game that didn't matter. With Marc Colombo out a couple of weeks on the right side, an already thin offensive line just gets thinner to start the season. Trust me, as a man who watched his team's offensive line allow a league-high 51 sacks last season, I know that one leak on an offensive line can cause the dam to burst, and I know(and this is sure to piss Cowboys fans off) that Tony Romo doesn't have anywhere near the skill and toughness that Aaron Rodgers has. Look, I don't hate Tony Romo, but if he was having struggles with throwing the ball to the other team last year with a solid offensive line, what happens if Free becomes a turnstile on his blind side?Romo's always been susceptible to nagging injuries, can he handle a big time beating if the offensive line isn't up to snuff?

Another area of concern that seems to be overlooked by the "experts" is the Cowboys' secondary. Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins are decent corners, but they can be beaten on occasion and the Cowboys' safeties aren't talented enough to make up for any mistakes. Now, the secondary is going to be helped considerably by the Cowboys' amazing pass-rushing duo at outside linebacker: DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer, but what happens if Ware and Spencer can't put pressure on the QB every down? Can this secondary shut down the game's best receivers? We'll see.

Now, that was the bad. Here's the good. The Cowboys may have the best receiving core in football(depending on how you feel about Cincy's or Indy's). They added Dez Bryant, the draft's best receiver, to a unit that already had last year's breakout star Miles Austin-Kardashian and the guy who was supposed to breakout, Roy "Stonehands" Williams. Now, Bryant's down with a sprained ankle and he also hasn't played a meaningful game of football in nearly a year after being suspended for his final year at Oklahoma State. Injuries and rust didn't hurt Michael Crabtree last year, and Bryant's a better prospect than Crabtree was. Beyond the troika of Austin, Williams and Bryant, there's Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten. That's a lot of weaponry if Romo can find time to throw. The running game possesses the game's scariest inside runner in Marion Barber and a home run hitter in speedy Felix Jones(when healthy, which is almost never). It's going to be almost impossible for defenses to stop ALL of those options. Defensively, there's the aforementioned Ware and Spencer, but there's also up-and-coming nose tackle Jay Ratliff, who wreaks havoc on the inside. The Cowboys have an impressive front seven and, if firing on all cylinders, they can make up for the lack of talent in the secondary by forcing some bad throws.

So, sure, I could be wrong here. Free could turn out to be a revelation at left tackle. Williams may finally show he can catch a football. Bryant may be the next Randy Moss and the secondary may be at least adequate enough to have the Cowboys make a Super Bowl run.....but these are all big IFs. Remember, the Cowboys have had the most talent of any team for the last few years and, up until last year, they couldn't win a playoff game. To quote Denny Green, if you wanna crown 'em, then crown their ass, but I will remain a skeptic, much to the chagrin of fans of "America's Team".

3. Washington Redskins - The Redskins did what they do best the last few months: Dominated the offseason. They made a few big splashes by hiring two-time Super Bowl winning head coach Mike Shanahan to run the team and got Shanny a quarterback in former Eagles Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb. They even made a few savvy moves, improving that dreadful offensive line by drafting athletic Oklahoma left tackle Trent Williams and trading for once-promising Saints lineman Jamaal Brown. Shanahan got himself a few backs to implement his vaunted running scheme in former Chiefs rusher Larry Johnson and former Steeler Willie Parker(although, Parker could be working at Panera by time you read this). Those guys will complement Clinton Portis, who had success in Shanahan's offense nearly a decade ago. All of those splashes mean the Redskins won't be the same hard-to-watch offense they were last year under Jim Zorn and the presence of McNabb, as well as the chip on McNabb's shoulder, means we could see a promising air attack with speedy Santana Moss and youngsters Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly(as well as a returning Chris Cooley at tight end). Still, there's two sides to football.

The defense is why I have the Redskins this low. For one, the switch to the 3-4 may minimize the defense's three best players. London Fletcher is a heat-seeking missile at linebacker, but he's a bit on the small side and it remains to be seen if he can be a tackling machine in this new scheme. Andre Carter flunked once in the 3-4, back during his San Francisco days, so who knows if he can provide a pass rush this time in Washington. Then, there's Albert Haynesworth. Untradeable, uninterested, disappointing and out of shape, he's the key to the 'Skins' defensive line. His unwillingness to play in the 3-4 has to be a sign that there's some doubt that he can be effective as a nose tackle or end. Truth be told, Haynesworth is better suited in a 4-3 where he can overpower the interior of the offensive line and either shut down the run or rush the passer. Now, he's being asked to clog the middle and open holes for guys like Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh. For a man who has always been concerned about getting his numbers and doesn't seem compelled to learn his new role despite his $100 million contract, that's bad news for this defense. The secondary is a bit of a question mark, too. DeAngelo Hall is nowhere near as good as he thinks he is and the same can be said about Fred Smoot. Carlos Rogers could be a solid corner if he can hold on a couple of those sure-fire picks that hit off of his hands. As for the safeties,LaRon Landry is supposed to be a star right now but isn't and the team still doesn't know who is going to the start opposite Landry, be it Chris Horton or Reed Doughty.

The addition of McNabb and Shanahan combined with improvement on the offensive line certainly makes Washington more entertaining, but it doesn't make them the contender that some in the nation's capital will have you believe. A switch to a 3-4 can only be effective with the right pieces and the Redskins don't have that right now. Instead, they are a hodgepodge unit littered with a couple bad contracts and a few square pegs in round holes. All of the talk that Shanny will do with McNabb what he did with Elway in the late 90's is just media hyperbole. This team is still a couple years away from contending(especially in this division), but if nothing else, this year's Eagles-Redskins games will finally be Must See TV.



4. Philadelphia Eagles - If you read my "Bold Predictions" piece, you know I'm not high on Philly this year. I think karma is going to come back and bite them for arrogantly dealing Donovan McNabb within the division and I'm not sold on Kevin Kolb as the heir apparent. I've heard people compare the Eagles swapping out McNabb for Kolb to the Packers swapping out BrettFavre for Aaron Rodgers and, well, that may be wishful thinking. The similarities are there with both situations, but also remember that A-Rod went 6-10 in his first year as the new Packers QB. Also remember that the Packers weren't playing in a division nearly as tough as the NFC East is going to be this year. Rodgers also didn't have to worry about Favre playing in his division until his second year as starter. Kolb has to successfully replace McNabb in one of the most hostile sports cities to play in, while McNabb is trying stick it to his former mates now that he's been sent to Washington. That's a ton of pressure for a first year guy. While the McNabb departure gets all the billing, people seem to forget that RB Brian Westbrook is gone, too, which means Kolb will have to rely on a new face in the backfield in second-year man LeSean McCoy. McCoy is a Westbrook clone, but it remains to be seen whether he can fully replace the dual-threat home run capability that Westbrook brought to the table. It's asking a lot for a team(especially one that ended the previous season as the Eagles did in their final two games of '09) to expect to compete in a stacked division with a brand new QB and a brand new RB to go along with a head coach with the reputation for brain farts and bad clock management that Andy Reid has.


Look, Kolb could manage to silence the critics and make Reid look like a genius, but his numbers make me a bit skeptic. He threw for 741 yards last season in three games(two starts), but those games were against a bad Saints pass D where he still managed to throw three picks and an even more putrid Chiefs defense. Rodgers had his coming-out party against a Cowboys team in Dallas that looked like the best team in the NFC at the time. In four games where he saw significant playing time(the two starts, plus the fill-in for McNabb against Carolina in Week 1 and the halftime switch in Baltimore in '08), Kolb has four TDs to seven interceptions and he's playing in an offense that will be throwing ALOT. With the weapons Kolb has in place, he could be the next Aaron Rodgers or the next Jay Cutler.

On defense, the Eagles added Michigan DE Brandon Graham to bring a little more pass rush after the team was picked apart by Dallas in its final two games last season. The team also brought in Darryl Tapp from Seattle to help put more pressure on the quarterback. Thelinebacking core, which was beat up by injuries last year, added Ernie Sims from Detroit to man the outside linebacker spot and also welcomes the return of MLB Stewart Bradley, who missed all of '09 due to injury. In the secondary, the Eagles think they've found the free safety they've desperately missed, after cutting Brian Dawkins loose last year, in second-round pick Nate Allen. Allen bolsters a secondary that already has a top-of-the-line cornerback tandem in AsanteSamuel and Ellis Hobbs.

There's no question the Eagles have the talent to be better than I may give them credit for. The key for them comes down to Kolb being able to handle the pressure that now falls in his lap after replacing a legend. Kolb has the luxury of having two game-breakers at wideout in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin(although Maclin did suffer a shoulder injury in preseason), but can he keep his interceptions down? My guess is Kolb folds under the pressure, that Reid continues to prove he's a bonehead and that the defense, while fast, talented and athletic in almost every area, still gives up too many big plays in Year 2 without the late Jim Johnson at defensive coordinator, and the Eagles struggle to win six games while chants for Mike Vick start around Halloween.


Gabe:


1. New York Giants - I wasn't going to put my team winning this division, but Dave's part of this blog convinced me. I too like what they have done on the lines.
Fantasy Focus -
Quarterback - The new hole in his head aside, Eli is a decent fantasy starter. At this point in his career you know what to expect from him...somewhere around 3,500 yards, touchdown total in the low 20's, and double digit interceptions. He's not a top-tier guy, but if you can't grab Brees or Rodgers or Peyton, Eli is worth a look in the 7th round or so.
Running Back - The Giants' running back situation is a fantasy mess. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are clearly the top guys, but Andre Brown and Danny Ware should also see some action. The Giants are a pass first team now so don't expect any of these guys to go over 1,000 yards for the season. Jacobs, Bradshaw, and Brown are all coming off injuries and unless one of the top guys gets injured again and the others have their roles increased accordingly, I'd look elsewhere for fantasy running backs.
Receiving - Steve Smith had one of the best seasons, statistically, that a Giants' receiver has ever had. He broke the team record for catches and went to the Pro Bowl. He doesn't stretch the field, but he isn't asked to. He is a possession receiver who gets a ton of targets and catches. He is borderline starter in most leagues, definitely a starter in PPR leagues. Hakeem Nicks should be the the no. 2 receiver on the team and is a perfect compliment to Smith. He is big and fast and a deep threat. He is a WR3 who could take advantage of the right match-up. Mario Manningham looked like he was going to put a strangle hold on the no. 2 job last year, but he committed too many mental mistakes after the second game of the season. If he grows up he could be dangerous. Ramses Barden is the only other Giants receiver worth drafting, but barely. He has value because his size makes him a red zone threat. At tight end Kevin Boss is probably a top-tier back-up at best.
Defense/ST - Where the Giants rank all depends on your league's scoring. Big Blue's D is prone to giving up big plays and tons of points. But the should get back to being a mean pass rushing machine. I see them getting lots of sacks and the secondary tightening up a little bit. They aren't elite, but if your scoring is based on sacks and turnovers they are a decent option. If you scoring is based on yards or points allowed, maybe look elsewhere.


2. Dallas Cowboys - Like I said before, Dave's portion of this blog convinced me to put the Giants first. Before that I had Dallas no. 1. I like Dallas' offense, but I have a few questions about their defense. Either way, I think they'll be better than Washington and Philly.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - I'm not a Tony Romo fan. In fact, I think he is a bit of a sissy who can't win big games. That being said, he took a huge step forward last year, mostly thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin. I expect both of them to regress this year as teams will have a year's worth of film on them to study. I think Romo flirts with 4,000 yards this year. He's definitely a fantasy starter, but I think he's a low end starter.
Running Backs - The 'Boys have a full fledged RBBC. Last year Marion Barber was the top guy on the team, with Felix Jones backing him up. When healthy, Marion Barber is the scariest man in football, but how does that translate to fantasy? I think their roles will be more even this year. I expect Jones to see more action and Barber to see less. They are both decent back-ups, but barring injury neither are reliable enough to be consistent fantasy starters. Tashard Choice is only a desperation pick.

Receiving - Miles Austin emerged as the man in Dallas last year. Then Dallas drafted Dez Bryant to compliment him. If Austin does anything close to what he did last year he'll be stud, a top flight starter. Bryant is hurt right now, but should be ready for the start of the season. Barring further injury he'll be a great WR2 or 3. Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton are going to see their roles diminished. However, in this offense they are still borderline starters or top tier back-ups. Tight end Jason Witten is great. He gets lots of catches and tons of yards, but there is one thing...he doesn't get into the endzone. He's scored only six touchdowns in the last two years. He is a great blocking tight end so that is his role in the red zone. He's still a top-10 fantasy tight end though.
Defense/ST - The thing holding this unit back is there secondary. Their front seven is outstanding and is going to rack up sacks. Their pass defense is suspect. Depending on your league's scoring system they could be top 10 or middle of the road. Look carefully.


3. Philadelphia Eagles - I hate the Eagles, but I like their offense.
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - With Donovan McNugget shipped off to Washington it is now the Kevin Kolb show in Philadelphia. Everyone is aware of what Kolb did in his two starts last year. All reports are Kolb has the leadership and swagger a team needs in a quarterback, and, the chemistry between him and the rest of the young offense is great. How does that translate to fantasy? Probably pretty good. He's got some great young talent and weapons around him. I think Kolb is going to be a solid fantasy starter, and one that you can probably get a bargain on by drafting him late, provided there isn't an Eagles fan in your league.
Running Back - I expect LeSean McCoy to be the clear-cut starter in Philly this year. I won't be surprised when he gets over 1,000 yards rushing and has 30 to 40 catches. He's definitely a fantasy starter. He is either a low-end RB1 or a top-tier RB2. In the off-season the Eagles apparently wanted to collect has-been back-ups and signed Mike Bell and J.J. Arrington. I don't expect them to do much outside of some spells or third down carries. Bell is the better handcuff if you draft McCoy though. Because of Bell and Arrington expect Leonard Weaver to go back to his role as the primary blocking back.
Receiving - DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are both young and talented. Jackson is probably the best deep threat in the league. He led the NFL in catches of 40 yards or more. Jackson is a shoe-in to catch for 1,000 yards and Maclin has a chance to as well. Jackson also gets the occasional end around carry and is always a threat to break one for a TD. He is definitely WR1 material. Maclin is a low-level fantasy starter. Tight end Brent Celek is going to be a stud this year. He catches a lot of calls and finds the endzone. I think he is a top-5 tight end.
Defense/ST - The front seven is fantastic and they love to blitz. This is going to generate sacks and turnovers. The questions are in the secondary. This team will get burned by good offenses and give up points and yards, but they will also pressure everyone.


4. Washington Redskins - I'm not putting the Redskins out of the cellar until they do it themselves. I think they are cursed. Call it "Snyderia."
Fantasy Focus:
Quarterback - Donovan McNabb is now in D.C. He is a great person and a talented player but he doesn't have the weapons in Washington that he did in Philly. Also, the Skins have added some new pieces to the O-Line and they'll need to gel fast for McNabb to stay upright. Jason Campbell was sacked a bunch last year and McNabb is not nearly as mobile, either as Campbell or as he himself once was. McNabb is a borderline fantasy starter.
Running Back - Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker. What is the oldest and slowest three-headed monster in the NFL Alex? Correct! Really, Johnson and Parker aren't that old, but they are broken down and slow. Portis is probably going to be the starter and is worth drafting as a low level starter or top back-up, if he's healthy. And that is a big if. I wouldn't touch him because of the injury risk. The best options after him are Johnson and Parker, in that order. Truthfully, if you're desperate enough to take Portis don't be tempted to take any of the others unless they are a waiver wire pick-up.
Receiving - Speaking of multi-layered shit sandwiches....Santana Moss, Joey Galloway, Devin Thomas, and Malcolm Kelly. Moss is the only fantasy starter in the bunch, and he is only a mid-level starter at that. He only had 902 yards last year and 178 of those came in one game...against the Lions. Galloway was once the fastest man in the NFL but that was 100 years ago. He is a decent back-up that is worth a bye week start if he has the right match-up. Thomas and Kelly are both full of potential but lacking in production. Wait and see with both of them. Tight end Chris Cooley used to be the man. Used to be. Now he's coming off a serious injury and is being pushed by back-up Fred Davis. Cooley is not going to put up the numbers he used to but should still be a good starting option. Expect Davis to get about half the production Cooley does, for now. If you draft Cooley I suggest you try to draft Davis late and stash him on your bench, just in case.
Defense/ST - They stink. Albert Haynesworth is fat and apparently has a degenerative muscle condition. Their secondary is terrible. The only players worth a crap are Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher. They are going to give up points and yards and not get many sacks or turnovers in return. I used to read a fantasy magazine that would assign bad players a "DND," as in "Do Not Draft." I'm giving the Redskins defense a resounding DND.