Week 12 Picks cont.

Last Week: (Dave: 7-9, Gabe: 9-7)

Season: (Dave: 59-79-4, Gabe: 72-66-4)

This Week: (Dave: 2-1, Gabe: 1-2)

Vikings (+1) at Redskins

Dave: Vikings - Classic "Underachieving Team Plays Up To Potential To Make New Head Coach Look Good and Stick It One Last Time To The Old Coach They Hated" game for Minnesota here. Leslie Frazier is going to bring the D back to form and Favre is going to suddenly feel healed now that Brad Childress has been shown the door. As for the Redskins, the fiasco over Donovan McNabb's extension(equipped with well-publicized out clauses) shows how dysfunctional this team is. Redskins stink up the joint again at home and Favre tries to prove he's not finished by going nuts on a defeated Washington squad. Vikes by 10.

Gabe: Vikings - Dave nailed it. The Vikings are going to rally for at least one game now that Chilly is gone. The Redskins are relying on Keiland Willams and James Davis, who until yesterday I thought were the other two guys in Dru Hill, to run the ball. Vikes by double digits.

Steelers (-6.5) at Bills

Dave: Steelers - It's easy to get overdramatic here and take Buffalo. The Bills are fiesty and it's possible Ryan Fitzpatrick slings it enough on this weak Steelers pass D to make things close. However, Pittsburgh showed last week that the beatdown they took from New England wasn't an indication that the Curtian has fallen off and, when they need to, they can put foot to ass on an inferior opponent. I think LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison get up in Fitzpatrick's grill a few times and we see a couple picks from Troy Polamalu and his hair. Steelers roll here....by 14.

Gabe: Steelers - The Bills won't be able to hit the home run ball against the Steelers' D. They also won't be able to stop the Steelers' running game. Steelers win this one easy.

Titans (+6) at Texans

Dave: Titans - The Texans just find ways to lose and having them as six-point favorites over anyone, especially a team as dangerous offensively as Tennessee, is a joke. Yes, new Titans starting QB Rusty Smith doesn't set the world on fire, but Chris Johnson does and I like the Titans to at least keep it close, if not pull out the straight up W.

Gabe: Texans - Why not? They've got every reason to want to win this game. The Titans are starting a nobody at quarterback, so they should be one dimensional on offense. Now, that one dimension is Chris Johnson, but teams have figured out ways to stop him this year. I can see the Titans having a stinker and Houston's offense going nuts. Texans win by at least 7.

Jaguars (+7) at Giants

Dave: Giants - There's no chance the Giants lose their third straight, at home, to a Jags team that has no business being first in their division, right? I see the Big Blue pass rush making a comeback after running on fumes chasing Mike Vick last week and I see Jax struggling to move the ball with a hobbled MoJo D. Eli tosses a few picks but scores a couple too, even without Nicks and Smith. Prepare to hear the name Derek Hagan alot. Giants by 10.

Gabe: Giants - I thought the Redskins had it bad. Mario Manningham, Derek Hagan, and Duke Calhoun. I wish they were the backing vocals from an unremarkable mid-90's R & B group, and not the Giants' starting receiving corps for this Sunday. Because of Ahmad Bradshaw's continued fumbling issues, and the no-name receivers, expect the Giants offensive game plan to be Brandon Jacobs right, Brandon Jacobs left, Brandon Jacobs up the middle. Also, Justin Tuck caught Michael Vick for three sacks last week. How many times do you think he'll catch Garrard? The Giants impose their will physically on the Jags and run away with this one.

Panthers (+9.5) at Browns

Dave: Browns - These are the kind of spreads that get me in trouble. I would have no problem taking Cleveland to pounce on a terrible Panthers team, except Jake Delhomme is getting the start possibly for the injured Colt McCoy. The presence of Delhomme alone means a potential house call or two for Carolina's defense. Sure, Jake could use that chip on his shoulder to stick it to his old mates but, really, the better bet is Peyton Hillis mowing over Carolina while Cleveland's D makes Jimmy Clausen regret leaving Notre Dame. Browns by 13.

Gabe: Panthers - This is just too many points. Neither team's passing game is any good. The Daily Show should be back in the line-up for the Panthers after practicing all week. The difference will be the running of Peyton "I'm a full grown man" Hillis. It just won't be a 10 point difference. Browns by a touchdown.

Bucs (+8) at Ravens

Dave: Bucs - I'm not as high on Tampa Bay as some others but I think they are the type of young, inspired bunch that gives older, veteran teams like Baltimore fits. Josh Freeman has been Big Ben Lite, using his big arm, big frame and icy veins to steal victories all season. On defense, the Bucs aren't as dominant as Baltimore, but they can at least make this Ravens offense sweat. Baltimore wins this one, but I'll say by only a touchdown.

Gabe: Ravens - The Bucs have to come back down to Earth sometime. The Ravens defense is just the squad to make them do that. Ray Lewis is still intimidating. Plus, this game is in Baltimore. I think the Ravens run away with this game and win by 10 or more.

Eagles (-3) at Bears

Dave: Eagles - I've been saying this for awhile: Chicago has beaten one team with a pulse all season and it needed a myriad of penalties and a James Jones fumble that mystically stayed inbounds to beat Green Bay by 3. Mike Vick is in MVP mode, Asante Samuel is making a dark horse run on Defensive Player of the Year and the Bears' offensive line couldn't protect Jay Cutler from Nicole Ritchie rushing at him. I think Cutler gets his bell rung a few times, connects a pick or two to Samuel, and the Eagles run roughshod on the Bears. Eagles by 14.

Gabe: Eagles - Michael Vick is going to do his thing in this game and I don't think it will be pretty for the Bears. The Eagles get to Cutler early and often. Eagles win big.

Packers (+1.5) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - This game may very well decide home field in the NFC. The Falcons are close to unbeatable in the Georgia Dome and the Packers haven't faced a real opponent since they skunked the Jets a month ago. If there's an advantage for the Pack, it's that Charles Woodson stands a better chance at stopping Roddy White than Dunta Robinson does against Greg Jennings. Great matchup between two exciting offenses and it really should have been flexed to the Sunday night game but, in the end, I think the Packers struggle with Atlanta's balance on offense and lose a close one on the road. Falcons by 3.

Gabe: Falcons - Don't bet against Matty Ice at home. Even if Roddy White is taken out of the game the Falcons just have too many weapons. I think the Pack get sent home with a touchdown loss.

Dolphins (PK) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - I'm not really sure why this is a pick 'em, but the Dolphins stopped being a legit team in my eyes when Chicago shut them down last Thursday night. The Raiders win this one with the run game and some good D. Raiders by 9.

Gabe: Raiders - I think this is an easy pick. Raiders, at home, over a struggling Dolphins team? Easy. Raiders by 10.

Chiefs (-2.5) at Seahawks

Dave: Chiefs - Prime candidate for one of Gabe's upset specials. Seattle is very good at home(whereas the Chiefs aren't nearly as good away from Arrowhead) and the 'Hawks have pulled out a few W's over the AFC West so far. Still, this Chiefs' offense is clicking. QB Matt Cassell is quietly having a Pro Bowl caliber year, as is top target Dwayne Bowe and I think KC eeks this one out by a field goal.

Gabe: Chiefs - This is a good candidate for an upset special, but I hate the Seahawks and hate picking them to win. So, for that reason, and not much more than that reason, I'm taking the Chiefs.

Rams (+4) at Broncos

Dave: Rams - The Broncos D is just plain awful and I don't think they can put enough heat on Sam Bradford to make this Rams offense sputter. Kyle Orton will put on a show, as he's done all season, but the Rams know they have a chance to gain some more ground in the NFC West with Seattle hosting Kansas City and I don't think they'll let that slip away by losing to a toothless Denver team. Rams by 7, with a big day from Steven Jackson.

Gabe: Rams - Here's an upset special....The Rams are playing well right now and are just dumb enough to think that they can win the division. The Rams win outright.

Chargers (+2.5) at Colts

Dave: Colts - A battle of two schools of thought. On the one hand, you don't go against Peyton Manning at night. On the other hand, if there's one team that has been Manning's kryptonite, it's been San Diego. The Chargers may not be the doormat that I once thought they were and Phillip Rivers has been lighting it up so far and now welcomes back Vincent Jackson, but I like the moxie of this Colts team after they came thisclose to coming back against the Pats. Begrudgingly, I'll take Indy here by 6.

Gabe: Chargers - The Colts are starting to show cracks. And Dave is right, the Chargers have always been their kryptonite. I think the Chargers' offense will be too much for the Colts to handle and they take this one under the lights. Chargers by 7.

49ers (-1) at Cardinals

Dave: 49ers - Colts-Chargers, Packers-Falcons, Saints-Cowboys all scheduled this week and we get THIS huge steaming turd as the Monday night? Good job, ESPN....this may be the only matchup more unbearable than the guys calling it. Niners by 6.

Gabe: 49er - The Cardinals sucks. San Fran is at least showing signs of life now. The Niners win behind a big game from Frank Gore.

Week 12 Picks

The NFL has turned the annual Thanksgiving Dallas/Detroit two-step into three-step and gives us three holiday games. As usual we will save the look back at last week for Sunday and pick the early games first.


So marinate on these picks while you enjoy your turkey, unless you're a level-5 vegan, like Dave, and don't eat anything that casts a shadow. (How's that for a deeeeeeep Simpsons reference?)
As always, we got these lines from Danny Sheridan of the USA Today.


New England (-6.5) at Detroit


Gabe: Detroit - My theme for these games could be "I can see the underdogs winning," because, well, I can see all of the underdogs winning. I'm not saying that is actually going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. About this game specifically...New England has played two tough games in a row. They will be on short rest and could suffer a hangover. And, they have to travel. Yes, Detroit is on a short week too, but they are at home and are playing decently. If they can get anything out of Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best, I think they can keep it close. I don't think New England is going to lose, but I think the Lions keep it within 6.


Dave: New England - It's simple math really. The Lions got pounced by a Cowboys team that, to me, is still lousy even if they are a little more motivated under Jason Garrett. The Patriots, as of right now, are the best team in football. They've beaten Indy. They've beaten Pitt. They've beaten Baltimore. They've beaten San Diego. That's four quality wins so far. Detroit, meanwhile, doesn't have four wins...period. Shaun Hill will make this game entertaining because the Patriots D gives up quite a bit of yards and points(especially through the air), but in the end, Pats by a touchdown seems like a gimme.


New Orleans (-3.5) at Dallas


Gabe: New Orleans - New Orleans finally seems to have together. Dallas has won two games in a row under new coach Jason Garrett. Both teams are extremely talented, especially on offense. So what is going to give? I think the emotion that brought Dallas together in their last two games is going to wear off and they are actually going to have to play now. Jason Garrett still doesn't know how to manage his talent. I think this game is going to come down to a late decision, and I trust Sean Payton more than Garrett, Drew Brees more than Jon Kitna, and Marques Colston's hands more than Roy Williams'. Give me the champs by a touchdown.


Dave: Dallas - The Saints are actually surprisingly good against the pass(the one thing the Cowboys does well), so why do I like Dallas? Because the Saints, who started out as the NFL's most maddeningly inconsistent team, is due for a letdown and Dallas is riding high coming off two straight W's under Jason Garrett. Are the Cowboys good? Well, in my eyes, no, but I see DeMarcus Ware putting pressure on Drew Brees(like he did in their upset last year) and the 'Boys eking out a victory which will lead to weeks of "Are the Cowboys back in the playoff picture?" talk. Cowboys, in an upset, by 6.

Cincinnati (+8.5) at N.Y. Jets


Gabe: Cincinnati - Here's what's going to happen. The Jets are going to have a four touchdown lead at halftime. Revis Island will be thriving and he'll completely shut down one half of the T.O.cho show. That means in the second half, Carson Palmer and the unmarooned receiver will get their heads out of their asses and play some football. The 2010 Cincinnati Bengals might be the greatest garbage time team in the history of the NFL. They'll put up big numbers, score some TD's, get it to within a touchdown, and then go home. Jets win, but only by seven.



Dave: Jets - Of all the games on Turkey Day, I don't think I can like a team more than I like the Jets this week. The Bengals gave up a 40-burger and a three-touchdown lead to Buffalo last week. Their pass rush is non-existent. Carson Palmer is 8 weeks away from signing with the UFL. The Jets, meanwhile, have kept things close, but I see Palmer doing everything in his power to make sure this game is a blowout for Gang Green. Revis Island shuts down T.O., while Ochocinco pouts. L.T. goes off and we see another score from the vaunted Mark Sanchez-to-Santonio Holmes connection. If the Jets are for real(and I think they are), they win this one by 14.

Week 11 Picks, continued....

In the history of bad weeks, last week was a complete and utter epic fail for Team Dave. After swinging and missing on the first seven games, victory finally came in the form of Tampa Bay's rout of lowly Carolina. The final tally from Week 10 for The Big Margharita? A Kelly Price-ugly 3-11. Gabe went 8-6 and moved to 11 games up for the season. On the bright side, Dave starts this week up one after picking the Bears and Gabe picking Miami on Thursday night. On to the rest of Week 11....

Last Week: (Dave: 3-11, Gabe 8-6)

Season: (Gabe: 63-59-4, Dave: 52-70-4)

This Week: (Dave 1-0, Gabe 0-1)



Oakland (+7.5) at Pittsburgh


Gabe: Pittsburgh - I think the Steelers are going to be angry. They were embarrassed last week and I think they are going to take it out on Oakland. The Raiders have played well lately, but the Steelers knock them around a little. Steelers by 9.


Dave: Oakland - Keep in mind that, even with Big Fat JaMarcus Russell and a Raiders team that wasn't on top of its division, Oakland still beat Pittsburgh last year. The Steelers clearly aren't the same team without DE Aaron Smith, and that hole will be exploited by a suddenly productive Darren McFadden. Expecting Oakland to pull off another upset is a bit of a stretch, but until these Steelers blow somebody out with Big Ben back, it's hard to like them by more than a touchdown(especially since their kicking duties have gone to Shaun Suisham.) Steelers by a touchdown.


Houston (+6.5) at N.Y. Jets

Gabe: N.Y. Jets - Houston always looks great to start the year, but then they shoot themselves in the foot late. Andre Johnson does not play well on Revis Island. Jets barely cover, win by a touchdown.

Dave: Jets - Going to have to co-sign with Daddy Yankee here. Darrelle Revis locked Andre Johnson down the last time and Arian Foster is going to find it hard to run over this tough New York run D. Plus, Houston possesses one of the worst pass defenses in the league(as shown by it letting David Garrard go Willie Beamen on them last week) and that doesn't bode well against Mark Sanchez, who is more confident throwing the ball than he was earlier in the year.

Baltimore (-11) at Carolina

Gabe: Baltimore - A few words. Starting Panthers quarterback Brian St. Pierre. I read somewhere that some people think Carolina coach John Fox knows he is a lame duck and is trying to take the ship down with him. Which is why he is starting a guy he plucked off the street ten days ago rather than Tony Pike, the other big name rookie QB they drafted, who is healthy and has been with the team all year. Ray Lewis and the D get mean and St. Pierre goes back to selling tractors. Ravens by 17.

Dave: Baltimore - 11 points is a lot to give a Baltimore team that isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut, but the Panthers are thisclose from dialing up Tony Banks to take first-team snaps. No DeAngelo Williams, no QB(which means no Steve Smith) against THIS Ravens D? Ravens not only cover, but I think they shut these guys out. Ravens by 24.

Washington (+7) at Tennessee

Gabe: Tennessee - Washington's pass defense stinks. They'll have no answer for Randy Moss, which will allow Nate Washington to have a huge game. Chris Johnson gets some too. Titans by double digits.

Dave: Tennessee - Eventhough I'm out now on the Titans and I think their only way of exploiting Washington's horrid pass defense is if Randy Moss decides to get his head out of his ass and starts to play football again, it's hard to like a team that allowed a man two years removed from a stint at Leavenworth to rack up 400+ yards on them...AT HOME. Titans by 10.

Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas

Gabe: Detroit - Dallas finally got of the schneid against my Giants. Unfortunately Manny Pacquio has won twice in Cowboys Stadium since the last time they did. I think Dallas goes back to form and finds a way to get in their own way. Detroit might not win, but saying Dallas will win by a touchdown is too much.

Dave: Dallas - I don't buy that all it took for Dallas to wake up was canning Wade Phillips and I don't buy that Jason Garrett is the answer, but have we seen anything from Detroit in the last few weeks to make anyone think they won't find a way to blow this one. Yes, Dallas' terrible secondary will make Shaun Hill look like the second coming of Dan Marino, but, for some reason, I see Roy Williams getting up for this one and sticking it to his old mates. Cowboys by 9.

Green Bay (-3) at Minnesota

Gabe: Green Bay - The Vikings have yet to score more than 24 points in a game. Granted, that was against the Packers. But the last time they played Clay Matthews was an animal and the Packers D broke Brett Favre...literally...they fractured his ankle in two places. I think That Man gets a few sacks, Favre throws a few picks, and the Packers win by 10.

Dave: Minnesota -The Packers didn't exactly slaughter this team the last time they played and, this theoretically being Favre's last shot at the Packers, I can see him trying to play the injured hero role again and ratcheting up a decent game(Although, I could also see him trying to play the injured hero role and throwing 4 picks). Sidney Rice is back, which is just one more dynamic weapon for a thin Packers secondary to cover. Also, teams coming off the bye(particularly good teams) have shit the bed coming off the bye and it wouldn't surprise me if Green Bay takes this Vikings team lightly and gets caught slipping while looking ahead to Atlanta next week. Vikings with the upset here by 6.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Cincinnati

Gabe: Buffalo - Cincy's running game is depleted. Buffalo does two things well, defend the pass and hit the home run on offense. I think they defend well enough and score a late 80 yard touchdown. I'm calling for the Buffalo to get the straight up win, by 3, in my....wait for it....Upset Special!!!

Dave: Cincinnati - Let's not get too cute here. Yes, the Bengals pass rush is so anemic that Ryan Fitzpatrick could launch bombs to Lee Evans while sitting in a lawn chair, but these are still the same shitty Bills. There's a reason this team has one win to its name(and it nearly lost that one). They just aren't very good. Granted, the Bengals aren't very good, but could I see Bernard Scott(filling in for Cedric Benson) having a Ryan Moats/Jerome Harrison type breakout game? Sure. Bengals barely cover here...win by 6.

Cleveland (+1.5) at Jacksonville

Gabe: Cleveland - Jacksonville won't be able to handle Peyton Hillis. I think he gets nice and is the difference in the game. Cleveland by 7.

Dave: Cleveland - The Browns defense is sneaky good against the pass. I see a couple scores a piece for MoJo D and Peyton Hillis, but inevitably, Colt McCoy pulls this one out. Browns by 3.

Arizona (+8.5) at Kansas City

Gabe: Kansas City - Arizona sucks. Kansas City doesn't. Kansas City still has a lot to play for. KC by 10.

Dave: Kansas City - Is there a better story than Kurt Warner coming off a set for Dancing With The Stars, unretiring, and suiting up for this game and leading the Cardinals the rest of the year to another NFC West title? Wait, that's not gonna happen, you say? Oh well, shit, Chiefs by 13 then.

Seattle (+11.5) at New Orleans

Gabe: Seattle - I think New Orleans has finally learned that they can't just roll the ball out and win. The problem is the Saints play up and down to their competition. They'll struggle, but still win, just not by double digits. New Orleans by 6.

Dave: Seattle - The Seahawks are better when Hasselbeck is in the lineup and, honestly, I don't what oddsmakers have seen out of the Saints to make them think they are double-digit favorites against a slightly mediocre Seahawks team. Reggie Bush is back, which would be great if this were college, but since he's a bust in the pros, I'm going to say he disappoints in his first game against his former college coach and the Saints win this one by 9.

Atlanta (-3) at St. Louis

Gabe: Atlanta - The Falcons are playing extremely well right now. The Rams have been playing well to, but I think the Dirty Birds beat down the upstarts. Falcons by 7.

Dave: Atlanta - If the Falcons are legit, they win this one by two scores. Falcons by 10.

Tampa Bay (+3) at San Francisco

Gabe: Tampa Bay - Is Raheem Morris a young Mike Singletary? Maybe, but Morris' team finds ways to win. I don't think Troy Smith has another good game in him. The Bucs win on a late Josh Freeman led two minute drive. Bucs by 4.

Dave: Tampa Bay - The Troy Smith Magic can't last forever, especially not against a potentially good Bucs team. I think both teams get turnover happy, but Tampa Bay wins an ugly one. Bucs by 6.

Indianapolis (+4) at New England

Gabe: New England - The Colts have won 4 of the last 5 in this series in the regular season, or some number that sounds like that. The problem is Peyton Manning's top receiver is going to be a tight end named Tamme and I think I'm starting at running back. I know that if there is one guy who can win an NFL game with the Bad News Bears surrounding him, it's Manning, but I think this is just too tall of an order. Pats by 9.

Dave: Indianapolis - Man, I'm tired of hearing about this matchup already. Yes, we get it. Manning vs. Brady is a marquee showdown. All of the games have been great, but please, let up with the slurpfest, will you, ESPN? The Colts have gotten the better of the Pats over the recent years and all signs point to New England getting revenge on a cold day in Foxboro, but I think it's going to be closer than 4 points. Patriots in another over-hyped showdown....by a field goal.

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Philadelphia

Gabe: Philadelphia - Oh how it pains be to be a rational Giants fan. Oh how it pains be to agree with Keyshawn Johnson. He said at the end of today people will be asking "What's happened to the Giants?" Oh how it pains be to watch the Eagles be this good. I think the Giants can do a slightly better job of keeping Michael Vick reigned in, but they'll still lose, by a touchdown.

Dave: Giants - I'm down 11 games, so I'm taking the chance at being different here. Mike Vick balled out on a terrible Redskins pass defense last week. Was it one for the ages? Absolutely. This, however, is not a suspect pass defense. The Giants have speed to keep Vick from running all over the place and, if Eli Manning is the MVP candidate some would have you believe, he darts a few through the Philly winds and does his thing against a suspect Eagles pass defense. I can't believe I have more faith in Gabe's boys than he does, but I'll take the points here. Giants by 6.

Denver (+10) at San Diego

Gabe: San Diego - I think San Diego puts up one of their once-every-few-weeks-40-burgers. Chargers win huge.

Dave: Denver - Again, I'm down 11 games. Chargers win, but I think the Kyle Orton Show keeps it within double digits. Chargers by 7.

Week 11 Picks

I feel like the NFL should pay us for the time and space we are wasting on tonight's Thursday night yawn-fest between the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears. Something about a shootout between Jay Cutler and Tyler Thigpen doesn't exactly get my adrenaline pumping. Anyway, here's our take on the first game of Week 11. As always, last week's results will be saved for Sunday's picks(since nobody outside of Miami and Chicago will care enough to check this piece anyway).

Bears (+1.5) at Dolphins

Dave: Bears - The Bears have one win against a team with a winning record this season, and they needed everything short of a head start to pull out that victory against Green Bay. Miami is one of those rare teams that can't seem to win at home(probably because sports fans in South Beach don't care much about sports) and they're starting a guy in Tyler Thigpen who is 1-11 as a starter in his career. Now, can I see Miami's defense bowling over Chicago's crap offensive line and pressuring Cutler into some bad decisions? Sure, but I can also see this Miami offense struggling to score points against a Top 5 run defense with a QB who has had two days worth of first-team snaps. I'll go Bears by 3.

Gabe: Dolphins - Dave hit on why I think this game is going to Miami's way....Jay Cutler. I think Miami's run game against the Chicago run D is going to a wash. But the Dolphins pass rush is going to get to Cutler and pressure him into mistakes. I see multiple picks out of him, including a pick six. I'll say that's the difference, Miami by a touchdown.

Yeah.....But......

If there's a headline for the 2010 NFL season through the first 10 weeks, it would read "We Just Don't Know". Nobody seems willing to run away from the pack and emerge as the team to beat. You can legitimately talk yourself into Super Bowl scenarios involving 10 or 12 different teams. Last night, the Steelers lost to the Patriots.....who lost to the Browns a week ago. The Browns lost to the same Jets team in OT that got skunked by the Packers two weeks ago.......the same Packers team that lost heartbreakers to Miami and Washington and completely annihilated the Dallas Cowboys......the same Dallas Cowboys that beat the New York Giants.......who beat the Cowboys a couple weeks ago....and seemed like the team to beat in the NFC. Now, the team to beat in the NFC might be the Atlanta Falcons....who beat the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday.....the same Ravens that beat the Steelers a few weeks ago.....and the same Steelers who won their opener against....wait for it.....the Atlanta Falcons.



The Kansas City Chiefs, my chic AFC West pick that I spent the first month ringing my hands about, have now lost two straight within the division and look very ordinary. Speaking of the Chiefs, there seems to be only one certainty this season: There will be three byes in this year's playoffs in each conference......the two top seeds and whoever draws the AFC and NFC West division winners. Seriously. Look at the the potential Wild Card winners in both conferences. You don't like the Steelers or Patriots' chances of going into Arrowhead or The Black Hole and getting a win? Does St. Louis or Seattle scare you on the road if you're a Packers or Saints fan? Well, if they do, I can't blame you because......we just don't know.



To help us know a little more, here's a breakdown of all the teams with a legit shot at Super Bowl contention and what's to like and not like going forward:



AFC



New England Patriots(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Tom Brady's in MVP form even without his former deep threat Randy Moss. Brady picked apart Pittsburgh last night, connecting on three TDs to rookie TE Rob Gronkowski. The Pats are back to spreading it around and with the way Brady's slinging it, it's going to be tough to stop.



Why They Might Not: It's the same song since Corey Dillon left: Where's the running game? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a nice back and maybe he could be a Antione Smith redux barrelling through the snowy grass in Beantown, but he's not someone you should fear as a defensive coordinator. Speaking of defense, I don't trust this Patriots D one bit. The secondary's decent but it did get torched quite a bit against Pittsburgh and against a team that can sling it like Indy or even Baltimore, I'm not sure how they'd hold up. Brady's good enough to win most shootouts but with a suspect D, inexperienced weapons beyond Wes Welker and Deion Branch and no real running game, you can only go so far with smoke and mirrors. I said I was out on New England after Cleveland trounced them. The beatdown of Pittsburgh helps them get back in my good graces but until they can prove they can smack a team like the Jets in the mouth and live to talk about it, I'm skeptical.



New York Jets(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: The running game is strong thanks to the rebirth of LaDainian Tomlinson and you have to figure Shonn Greene is going to get back in the swing of things sooner rather than later. Mark Sanchez is coming into his own in Year 2 and he's getting good production out of once-stonehanded Braylon Edwards and the returning Santonio Holmes, not to mention TE Dustin Keller. The defense is once again in the top five in total defense and against the run and now they have a healthy Darrelle Revis to improve that 15th-ranked pass defense.



Why They Might Not: Of the potential contenders, the Jets are the hardest to find flaws on. They've managed to shore up the run D even without massive NT Kris Jenkins and they'll be better against the pass with Revis back. Still, this team proved in its home loss to Green Bay that it's capable to laying an egg and a couple plays here and there, and they'd be staring 4-4 after OT losses to inferior teams like Detroit and Cleveland the last two weeks. Rex Ryan also has the tendency to quote the "Andy Reid Clock Management" manual and you wonder if the arrogance of both the head coach and some of its players is going to come back to haunt them. Right now, they may be the best team in football, but you have to wonder if these last three weeks were an aberration or a sign of things to come.



Baltimore Ravens(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: On both sides of the ball, they have as much talent as anybody. QB Joe Flacco has been solid(15 TDs, 7 INTs, 2,132 yards) and he's starting to develop some rhythem with Anquan Boldin as his go-to guy. Ray Rice hasn't been the TD machine many had hoped but nearly 700 yards through 9 games is nothing to turn your nose at. Defensively, Ray Lewis is still the leader of the best front seven in football and guys like Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata have been putting on a clinic all season.



Why The Might Not: It's still hard to figure out this team's identity on offense. Are they a smashmouth team that's going to run it down your throat with guys like Rice and Willis McGahee or are they going to let Flacco air it out with his bevy of possession receivers. As good as the trio of Boldin, Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmanzadeh may be, there's no real deep threat on the roster beyond Donte Stallworth. Who's making a play on 3rd and long? Todd Heap? Defensively, for all its skill up front, the secondary's a mess beyond S Ed Reed. The Ravens give up far too much through the air and the only thing keeping them somewhat respectable is a good pass rush and Reed's reputation. Given Reed's tricky hip, it's asking a lot to expect him to be the only line of defense in a conference that has teams like Indy and New England as pass-first teams. The team also is a bit unlucky. Some questionable coaching decisions hurt them in their loss to New England and bad officiating killed them Thursday night against Atlanta.....and this is after a preseason that saw them lose a lot of talent(Jared Gaither, Sergio Kindle, Fabian Washington to name a few). Sure, injuries are part of the game and no team can manage karma, but it's hard to bet on a team that's spent the first half of the season watching the ball bounce the other way.



Pittsburgh Steelers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: They are getting a big year on the ground from Rashard Mendenhall and second-year wideout Mike Wallace is becoming one of the game's best #2 receivers. Big Ben is back as well and he's shaking more rust off as the weeks pass. The defense has been pretty stout as well, last night's game not included, as they finally have S Troy Polamalu healthy. Once Roethlisberger is back to his old self(and really, there's no reason why he shouldn't be by now), this team becomes a lot more dangerous on offense.



Why They Might Not: Roethlisberger's effectiveness is contingent on him staying upright and, even with the four games off giving him some freshness, there's only so much that 250lb pound frame is going to be willing to take behind this swiss-cheese offensive line. Speaking of lines, this defense is already feeling the effects once again of having to solider on without DE Aaron Smith. Smith is the catalyst for this new Steel Curtain and, without him, the whole D goes into disarray. Another underlying flaw? The inevitable suspension of star LB James Harrison, who has shown a willingness to test Commissioner Goodell's patience on the new policy on jarring hits. Harrison's been fined a couple times already since the rule change and he's adamant on not changing his ways for anyone. If Harrison has to miss time because Goodell lays the hammer, that would be yet another huge loss for the Steelers defense.



Indianapolis Colts(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Peyton Manning. That's it. That's all. He's balling out as usual and he's doing it without Dallas Clark and with guys like Pierre Garcon underachieving and Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne banged up. On defense, Dwight Freeney is still upright, which means opposing offenses have to be afraid to throw it. The secondary has been decent and they can make a play here and there if Freeney and fellow bookend Robert Mathis get some pressure.



Why They Might Not: The running game is non-existent. They are 27th in rushing for a reason. That reason? Joesph Addai is hurt, so is Donald Brown and the other guys stink. On top of that, not only can they not run the ball, they can't stop it either(29th against the run). That's a bad sign when facing teams like the Jets or Ravens or, by some miracle, Kansas City or Oakland. As great as Manning has been, he's going to need Garcon to step it up and Collie to stay healthy to keep defenses from smothering Wayne. The Colts made it to the Super Bowl last year without much of a running game and getting a turnover here and there, but lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice.



(Side note: You will not find the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams or Seahawks in this breakdown. As proud as I am of my Chiefs pick, they need to beat a team with a pulse before I consider them a contender. For now, they run the ball well and the defense is better than you think, but this team is still a year or two away from serious consideration. As for the others, well, you give me a reason to consider them, and I'll gladly put it in this spot.)



NFC



Atlanta Falcons(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Matt Ryan's the MVP dark horse right now and he spearheads an offense alongside the speedy and punishing Michael Turner at running back and Ryan's favorite target Roddy White. Turner and TE Tony Gonzalez make up one of the toughest red zone combos to stop in the NFL. "The Burner" has bounced back after a tough year last year and he's getting a breather or two from backup Jason Snelling. The key, however, has been "Matty Ice"(easily the worst nickname of any major athlete that isn't a name hyphen like D-Rose or A-Rod). Ryan's thrown for nearly 2,300 yards and 16 TDs and has made the Falcons the team to beat in the NFC after I spent the preseason scoffing at people who told me I was sleeping on Atlanta.



Why They Might Not: The defense leaves much to be desired. They are horrid against the pass(23rd in the NFL....not a good look for a team that may have to face the Packers or Saints in Round 2) and, while the run defense is 8th in the league, they haven't really faced a good rushing team yet besides Pittsburgh(which beat them thanks to Mendenhall's 120 yard day, including a 50-yard go-ahead score) and Baltimore(who should have beat them). Even Philly trounced this Falcons team, and that was without Micheal Vick scrambling all over the field. Now, the Falcons don't really have to worry about a good rushing team in this conference besides the Giants and possibly St. Louis(if they even make it that far), but in a Super Bowl matchup against the Jets or rematches with the Steelers and Ravens? Yikes.



New York Giants(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: It pains me to even type the words but Eli Manning is in the mix as well for the MVP, throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 TDs so far. Hakeem Nicks(56 catches, 735 yards, 9 TDs) has been an absolute beast in his second season. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is among the league's leading rushers with 838 yards and, as winter approaches, defenses have to become plenty afraid of Brandon Jacobs shaking the rigamortis off his 6'4, 260lb body. And this defense? Just as I suspected. Big Blue's pass rush has been more punishing than a Manny Pacquaio hook and more cringe-worthy than Chris Berman's 2-Minute Drill. Osi Umenyiora(9 sacks) would be Defensive Player of the Year if not for Clay Matthews' excellence so far. Justin Tuck has been putting in some effort as well(4 sacks). Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul....well, he hasn't broken out as I predicted, but it's still early. The secondary is much better than the bunch that was burned constantly last year(yesterday's torching by Jon Kitna not included) and that, combined with the pass rush, is why this team is 4th against the pass.



Why They Might Not: This team is it's own worst enemy. Who knows what New York's record would be if not for their chronic case of turnover-itis. The Giants currently have a -5 turnover margin. They've lost 12 fumbles and Manning's tossed 13 picks to go with his 19 TDs. With the way this team moves the ball, teams wouldn't come close to them if they could find a way to stop giving the ball away.



Green Bay Packers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Green Bay has gotten phenomenal play from QB Aaron Rodgers and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Clay Matthews. Rodgers has 2,300 yards and 15 TDs and is leading an offense that's had to play without TE Jermichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant. The offensive line is doing a much better job of protecting Rodgers than they did last year. As for Matthews, his performance against Dallas last week is all you need to know about his dominance. He's the league leader in sacks and he has been all over the place all season. His pressure as well as the rush from linemen Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji has made things easier for defending defensive MVP Charles Woodson and underrated fellow corner Tramon Williams.



Why They Might Not: When Grant went down, so did the Packers' running game. Brandon Jackson has been so bad as Grant's replacement that the team flirted with the idea of using FB John Kuhn as its lead back for a couple weeks before Kuhn faltered as well. Injuries have made what could have been an elite team into a just a very good one. The offensive line is improved but it still needs work(especially in opening holes for the run game). Rodgers has gotten a little careless with the ball, too. After throwing 7 picks all last season(mind you, while he was getting constant pressure), he's thrown 9 picks in 9 games. He's done better the last couple of weeks, but given the fact he'll be throwing a lot with the running game underperforming, he needs to be wiser with his decisions. Another cause for concern? This team's ineptitude in close games. They are 6-3 but could easily be 9-0. All three losses are by a combined nine points, two of those losses coming in overtime after the led late in the game. The 9-0 shutout of the Jets was nice, but in the next month they get a hobbled Vikings team, and then go at Atlanta(where Matt Ryan is 18-1 so far) and at New England. Those are tough tests for a team that doesn't have its own division locked up yet.



Chicago Bears(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. The Bears six wins this season have come against the NFL's lower crust(Detroit, Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota), with the exception of a win against Green Bay that the Bears did everything in their power to give away. Matt Forte has done a decent job of both rushing and catching out of the backfield but he only has a little over 600 yards combined. Jay Cutler shows flashes of being able to excel in this Mike Martz offense, but those have been few and far between. Defensively, this unit has carried the team, thanks to some stout play against the run.



Why They Might Not: This may be the worst 6-3 team in history. The offensive line has done nothing to protect Cutler. He's been sacked 29 times in 8 games and he's thrown 9 INTs as he continues to chuck and duck. Neither Forte or Chester Taylor has done much for the run game, and these Bears receivers have been pedestrian at best. On defense, Julius Peppers has just two sacks after signing that big contract in the offseason. In essence, this team has one noteworthy to its name and it needed 17 penalties and a costly fumble just to win by three. Until it proves it can beat a good team, they are lock to lose the division to Green Bay, be on the outside looking in come January and start over completely in the offseason.

Philadelphia Eagles(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: The return of Mike Vick as not just an adequate stop-gap, but a solid starting quarterback. Regardless of what the Colin Cowherds of the world may think, Vick's performance in Monday night's slaughtering of the Redskins was one of the best single-game outings we've seen in recent memory. His touchdown strike to DeSean Jackson on the opening play of the game, where he launches a pass 60+ yards from his own 2 and hits Jackson right in the hands, is the play of the season thus far. If Vick can maintain his accuracy to go along with being an electrifying runner, this Eagles offense is going to be tough to stop. As for the other Eagles, Jackson and fellow speedster Jeremy Maclin give this team a speed dimension that is almost like a bizarro "Greatest Show On Turf". Add to the underrated skills of tight end Brent Celek and a decent 1-2 punch of Jerome Harrison and Shady McCoy, and the Eagles possess one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football.

Why They Might Not: The defense is a bit middle-of-the-pack. They are giving up an average of 23 points per game and have been a bit weak against the pass. Asante Samuel has lost a step since coming over from New England a couple years ago, and the rest of the guys are pedestrian with the exception of rookie FS Nate Allen. The front seven has some talent, but injuries have depleted the linebacking core. A bigger issue than that, of course, is the continued horrid clock management of head coach Andy Reid. Monday's blowout saved us from another head-scratching performance by Big Red but go back to the opener against Green Bay when Reid blew all of his timeouts with about 5 minutes to spare in a game that got surprisingly close at the end. There's a reason Reid's teams have underachieved over the years despite all the talent and that reason starts and ends with the heavy-set fellow with the thick mustache. Another concern should be the health of Vick. With as much as he likes to run in the open field, all it takes is another hit like the rib-crusher he took in the first Redskins game to revert this team to the Kevin Kolb "dink and dunk" show.

New Orleans Saints(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: Experience. Unlike the other teams in the NFC, the Saints know what they have to do in the postseason to make it back to the Super Bowl. Drew Brees, while clearly the latest victim of the Madden Curse, is still deadly with the ball in his hands and a few seconds to throw. Lance Moore has made a resurgence as Brees' #2 and Marques Colston is quietly having a good year as well. Eventually, the team will get RB Reggie Bush back and he will be yet another playmaker for Brees to utilize. The defense, once an Achilles' heel for this team, has stepped it up as well. New Orleans currently holds the league's top pass defense(stunning, considering they are without Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper) and are 3rd in total yards allowed and 4th in points allowed.

Why They Might Not: Even with Bush, this team can't run the ball to save its life. New Orleans is 25th in rushing and have been trying to stay afloat with the likes of guys like Chris Ivory. The passing game has made up for the lack of a run game but that can't last for too long(especially since my gut tells me there is something going on with Brees' knee that the team and Brees himself are failing to let on). The defense could also be better against the run. Eventhough this has become a passing league and the Saints can shoot it out with the best of them, the team has to be able to get stops and keep the D off the field for long stretches, especially since Brees and company strike so quickly on offense.

So, Was It Worth It?

Matt Moore. Jimmy Clausen. Derek Anderson.

Alex Smith. Jason Campbell. Shaun Hill. Matt Hasselbeck.

What's the reason for name-dropping these seven quarterbacks? Well, the first three are the only three quarterbacks(at least of the ones who have seen a decent amount of playing time) with a worse passer rating than Vikings signal caller and my favorite comic foil Brett Favre. The other four are just a few of the names ahead of "The Riverboat Gambler".

Let's think about this for a second. Now, Moore was never the second coming of Steve Beuerlein and Clausen's a rookie and neither could be expected to be anything better than subpar on one of the worst, if not THE worst, teams in football. The same can be said for Anderson, who was thrown out of Cleveland for the original crap sandwich of Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Those are the guys you expect to be beneath Favre through 10 weeks of the NFL season.

As for the others? Alex Smith was left for dead until last year when he had a slight resurgence that foolishly conned the 49ers into sending Hill packing to Detroit. Campbell suffered a similar exile from Washington and is thisclose from losing his starting job to Bruce Gradkowski(also a higher rated passer than Favre) for the second time in two months. Hasselbeck, meanwhile, is a shell of the man who led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl a few years ago and he's as brittle as Mr. Glass in "Unbreakable" these days. Hasselbeck used to carry Favre's pads. Now, Favre couldn't even shine his former pupil's cleats.

So, is this why you came back, Brett? To embarrass yourself. To further tarnish your once-sacred legacy. In three seasons since his tumultuous split with the Green Bay Packers, Favre's went from the Babe Ruth of football to the new Buck Showalter(in that, his teams get better when he leaves). A year after Favre choked away the Jets' playoff chances by trying to be Superman with a torn bicep, Gang Green swung a deal that brought them Mark Sanchez as their face of the franchise. Now, they are 7-2(tied for the best record in football and current holder of the top spot in the AFC) a year after narrowly losing in the AFC Championship. The Packers? Well, they had the unfortunate 6-10 season in the year after Favre but bounced back to make the playoffs last year and currently are 6-3 and holding down the Wild Card spot.

As for Favre and his Vikings in Year 2? 3-6(including 0-5 on the road so far) and just a game above the lowly Detroit Lions for third place in a hardly-dominant NFC North. Favre, meanwhile, has turned the ball over at least once in every game this season. He's thrown a pick in every game except a Week 6 win against the even more unbearable Dallas Cowboys and has five games this season where he's thrown more than one pick(including three 3-INT games so far in 9 games). Favre's stat line through Week 10: 2,006 yards, 10 TDs, 16 INTs, 5 lost fumbles, and one badly bruised ego and soiled reputation.

Favre's supporters(the ones he has left, that is) will point to a couple factors to defend #4's porous start. First, they'll mention the fact that he's coming off offseason ankle surgery and is still trying to get readjusted after being on the shelf doing his usual lolly-gagging over whether he's coming back or not. My response? Bullshit. Favre put up the best season of his career last year while coming off late surgery to repair that once-treasured cannon attached to the right side of his body. Next, they'll mention how Favre's favorite target, Sidney Rice, has yet to take a snap because of a hip injury. My retort? Ummm....is Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian, and a couple weeks of Randy Moss not enough? How about the fact he has the most dangerous running back in the game behind him(yes, AP is much more dangerous than Chris Johnson. The man runs with the violent intent of a crazed serial killer at a speed that would make a gazelle sheepish)? Do guys like Hasselbeck and Campbell have a smorgasbord of weapons at their disposal? Matt's throwing strikes to Mike Williams, a guy who was out of football a year ago. Campbell's been connecting with guys named Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy(In other words, guys who, if you didn't know better, would swear were sung backup for the Dave Matthews Band). Then, Favre's defenders will bring up the fiasco with one Jenn Sterger. My reply? You've got to be kidding. Favre managed to focus on game day for years while his wife battled cancer. He infamously torched the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football just hours after having to bury his father. Favre has built a reputation as being Iron Man. Nothing, be it physical, psychological or emotional, has ever been able to affect this man. Don't try to tell me an overblown story, which first surfaced on Deadspin in August when reports by ESPN were surfacing that Favre was hanging them up, about penis pictures and one of the hottest women on the planet is enough to tear down Favre when melanoma and dead relatives couldn't.

You know why Favre's sucking ass this year? False pride. In Brett Favre's mind, he could have seasons like last year whenever he wants because...well, he's Brett Favre. In his mind, he's not an over-the-hill QB coming off more recent surgeries than Heidi Montag and less accuracy than an ESPN rumor blog. Favre doesn't believe he's washed up. Why? Because, until now, nobody ever told him. Think about it. In the last year and a half in Minnesota, Favre has been treated like the emperor of the Twin Cities. He's had his head coach pick him up from the airport whenever he decides he feels like coming to camp to be part of the team. He had the best players on his team hop on a plane to Mississippi to stroke his ego about giving it one more go. At no point during this season has Brett Favre played like a man who wants to be out there taking hits from 250lb linebackers. At no point have we seen even the slightest glimpses of 2009 Favre.....but guys like Jon Gruden and Cris Collinsworth(who are in a tug o' war for the coveted prize of who gets to slurp Favre the most now that John Madden's gone) will tell you he's still "like a kid out there" and he still "loves the game". No, he doesn't. Brett Favre loves the same thing now that he's loved his entire career: the attention. He's like Janice Dickerson....someone who used to be hot who drools over the first person to give them simplest of back-handed compliments. Favre didn't want to come back. He wanted you to want him to come back....and you fell for it.

Favre had the chance to ends things the right way three years. Yes, throwing a pick in overtime in the NFC Championship to cost Green Bay the game isn't exactly Michael Jordan shoving off Bryan Russell and draining the go-ahead bucket to win the NBA Finals, but since then, Favre has seen his last throw as a Jet be a INT by then-rookie DE Phillip Merling to kill New York's playoff shot and saw his final throw in his miracle season last year be a head-scratching cross-body heave to Tracy Porter that cost Minnesota a chance at the Super Bowl. Now, he's back yet again throwin' picks and textin' chicks. If Favre ends his career like he initially tried to in 2008, here's what he avoids:

*Being traded to New York where he crosses paths with Sterger(Side rant: At the risk of being overdramatic for someone who I consider a buddy, perhaps the biggest casualty of Favre's two-city comeback tour has been Sterger herself. Sterger, in a lot of ways, was the American dream. A girl who rose to fame by going from screaming her heart out at a Florida State game to becoming a magazine cover girl and TV personality. Now, after Deadspin sandbagged her by posting the Favre story, she's lost her job, her credibility and has been attacked by everyone from Jason Whitlock to Maurice Jones-Drew. The treatment of Sterger by some forms of the media and even her own bosses at Versus is so ass-backwards, it might as well have been done with cave drawings. We, in this country, constantly talk about equal rights for women and yet we've never stopped using sex, be it the attractiveness of males or females, to get the kind of reaction that we've wanted whether it be ratings or magazine sales or what have you. We're okay with women reporting from the sidelines but, hey, don't you dare fuck things up for the team. What's Sterger's crime exactly? Recieving dick photos from a horny, married old man who should have known better? Attractive women like Sterger have been marketed by networks for years to bring in a certain demographic. Since when has being pretty been a bad thing? Would you rather get your sports news from Delta Burke? You'd rather have Gabourey Sidibe patrolling the sidelines? We don't fire shots at Erin Andrews for dropping it down and making change butt-naked in a hotel room while some stalker filmed it. Females aren't writing blogs skewering Danica Patrick for stripping in GoDaddy ads while trying to make a name for herself in NASCAR. We don't burn Lisa Guerrerro for going from Monday Night Football to Playboy. It's amazing how a woman's life can be reduced to a background of tawdry photos the minute it meets the convenience of protecting a bigger name. The irony of all that is Sterger and to some extent Andrews actually knows a thing or two about sports. As someone who follows Sterger on Twitter and has sat in on her webcasts, the girl has charm and wit that is far more alluring than her thousand watt smile and mind-boggling figure. It's a shame how one story can blow up like nitro and leave innocent people in the ashes. In an era where teenage girls are becoming celebrities for brainlessly having children and a greedy mother is using the trials and tribulations of her tattered marriage and eight children to parlay into wealthy book deals and stints on Dancing With The Stars, let's stop pretending that Jenn Sterger holding onto a few pics of a legend's tiny penis is reasons to burn her at the stake. Get off your high horse and cut the girl some slack.) and becomes the second-biggest celebrity creeper behind Tiger Woods.

*Killing his stock with the Green Bay faithful by signing within the division in Minnesota and then pretending as if it wasn't to stick it the Packers.

*Further adding fuel to the criticism that he chokes like a first-time throater in the playoffs by throwing yet another back-breaking pick in the NFC Championship.

*Destroying any stock he had with his female fan base by sending penis pictures to various women that aren't his wife(Another side rant: If there any female readers out there besides my wife, please be sure to leave a comment about how getting a picture of a man's penis has EVER worked in sleeping with that man. I chased skirt for years before I met my wife and if I thought just taking a snapshot of Dave Jr. would have me closing like Mariano Rivera, I'd be filling up throw-away cameras as we speak. Trust me. As much as women love an impressive dong, I've yet to meet a woman who drops her drawers over a dick pic and, the ones that do, you probably wouldn't want anyway).

*Pissing off Vikings fans by essentially ruining what could have been a solid season with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm(Hey, you never know. You mean to tell me Minnesota would be worse than 3-6 with Jackson as their opening day starter?) as well as forcing Adrian Peterson into the shadows by allowing the best running back in the game to be dwarfed by the media's lovefest for Favre. On top of that, Favre's miracle season last year got Brad Childress his extension and probably cost them the chance to give the head coaching job to, in my eyes, a better candidate: Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier(enjoy him in Houston next year, Texans fans!)

So, you can call me bitter, but Favre should have ended it with his toss to Corey Webster in 2008 instead of tirelessly hitting the erase button on his final chapter in the hopes that it will be filled with a story book ending. As great as last season was, Favre's final year with Green Bay was solid, too. It also would have allowed him to come back to Lambeau Field without getting booed like Hulk Hogan after he joined the nWo. Favre could have rode into the sunset by leaving it all on the frozen tundra and humbly passing the torch to Aaron Rodgers. Instead, big time bravado and an even bigger ego has given us the last three years of Favre Fatigue and has seen him go from a once-beloved icon to one of the most hated men in sports as well as a laughing stock with the football in his hands.

So, Brett, I have to ask.......was it all worth it?

Week 10 Picks cont...

A decent week for both of us last week. I managed to finish at .500 after the Bills extra point mishaps drew me a tie instead of a W and Gabe edged me by one game because I inexplicably took the Cowboys in an effort to jinx them against my Packers(which worked, mind you, but I don't think they needed my help in that regard). Anyway, on to the rest of Week 10 after we both took the L after the Ravens lost to the Falcons and their privately-flown-in crew of officials on Thursday.

Last Week: (Dave - 6-6-1, Gabe 7-5-1)

Season: (Dave: 49-59-4, Gabe: 55-53-4)

This Week: (Dave and Gabe: 0-1)


Cincinnati (+7) at Indianapolis




Gabe: Cincinnati - We're halfway through the season and I still can't get a read on some teams. Cincinnati is one of them. I honestly thought T.O. joining the team was going to poison the locker room. I wouldn't have guessed that he would keep turning in 200 yard games, make Ochocinco the after thought, all while Carson Palmer regresses to Jordan or Jesse Palmer levels. This could be a trap game for the Colts, as they have New England next week. I think the Colts win, but by less than a TD.

Dave: Indianapolis - Eventhough I can see the Colts jumping out to a big lead here and then falling asleep towards the end to allow a few late scores to Cincinatti's new kings of sanitation, Carson Palmer and Terrell Owens(because they kill it during garbage time), I'm going to go oppo here in an effort to tear down the six-game deficit I'm currently behind to Mr. On The 6 here. Manning feels no pressure from a non-existant Bengals pass rush and tosses three scores(I'll even give you names: Wayne, Garcon and Jacob Tamme. Lock it up!), while Bengals fans start sending emails to bring back David Klingler.


Houston (+1.5) at Jacksonville

Gabe: Houston - This line is not as ridiculous and I thought at first. Jacksonville always plays well against their division opponents, especially at home. Houston can't stop anyone on defense, but they counter that by putting up big points. I say David Garrard and Mojo have good games, but in the end Houston does just enough to win, by 3.

Dave: Houston - Is "Jacksonville sucks" enough of a reasoning to pick Houston here? It is? OK, on to the next one.

Tennessee (-1) at Miami

Gabe: Tennessee - I think Miami suffers a hangover after getting crushed by the Ravens. Tennessee is coming off of a bye so they'll have plenty of time to prepare, and get used to Randy Moss being there. I think the Titans offense has a good day and they beat Miami by 6.

Dave: Tennessee - With the acquisition of Randy Moss, the Tennessee Titans have no morphed into the ultimate Dave Leonardis Madden team. Tall, speedy deep threat, plus running back with speed to run screens and mobile QB to keep teams honest plus bend but don't break defense. What does that have to with this game? Well, nothing, but I was out on Miami after I heard the words "Starting QB Chad Pennington", and I needed something to fill this space so there you go. Kerry Collins balls out with his new playtoy and we spend the next week or so listening to talking heads ramble about whether the Titans should go with Vince Young or Collins the rest of the season. Oh, sports talk experts, you're so damn predictable.

Minnesota (-1) at Chicago


Gabe: Chicago - Minnesota has been a soap opera this year, we all know. I'm not going to take them to win until they have a show me game. Chicago at home by a touchdown.

Dave: Minnesota - Man, do I HAVE to pick a winner in this one? The Vikings may be the NFL's version of the West Canaan Coyotes(the team from "Varsity Blues"), a band of misfits whose bond is to each other, the game of football and their hatred for their knucklehead coach. Despite doing everything to get himself either fired or choked out with a pair of Wranglers, Brad Childress still runs roughshod in Princeville and the team is content on winning just to spite him. There's just too much talent on this Vikings squad to think they'd lose to a Bears team that will see Jay Cutler give it away at least twice. Also, be prepared to see Jared Allen's sack dance alot. Chicago's offensive line has allowed Cutler to take more hits than ESPN's credibility so far this season. Vikes by 10.

Detroit (+3) at Buffalo

Gabe: Detroit - Don't let the recent games fool you, Buffalo still sucks. I think the Detroit offense gets going and Suh causes problems all game. Upset special? Sure why not. Detroit gets the outright win.

Dave: Buffalo - I'm really not sure if Buffalo is a half-decent team that's just misfortunate enough to shoot itself in the foot each week or if they really truly are the second coming of the 2008 Lions. I'm rolling the dice that it's the former and that the Lions, while impressive the last couple of weeks, take a step back with Shaun Hill at QB and Ryan Fitzpatrick edges them out in a surprisingly entertaining shootout(mainly because bye weeks forced me to start both Lee Evans and Steve Johnson this week). Bills with the upset here by 3.

N.Y. Jets (-3) at Cleveland

Gabe: N.Y. Jets - I wish the Ryan's played against each other every week. The press conferences and interviews this week have been awesome. That being said, the Browns won't be able to do this week what they did last week. Jets win easy, by 10.

Dave: Cleveland - Fuck it, I'm all in on the Browns this year. They've whooped on New Orleans and New England so far and they've given Pittsburgh and Baltimore all it can handle. Plus, this is yet another revenge bang for Browns coach Eric Mangini and, this time, he gets a tag team partner in Rob Ryan, the brother of Jets coach Rex Ryan. Peyton Hillis has become the second coming of Mike Alstott and Colt McCoy, much like DJ Khaled, all he does is win. The Jets have dropped two stinkers in a row and I think the Browns make Gang Green and former Brownie Braylon Edwards pay. Browns by 6.

Carolina (+7) at Tampa Bay

Gabe: Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay knows how to win. That's all they do. They are on the rise. The Panthers are in free fall. They call my little brother yesterday and asked if wanted to tote the rock. Tampa by 10.

Dave: Tampa Bay - Mike Goodson is starting at RB and Jimmy Clausen at QB for Carolina. I don't think this spread could be high enough here. Bucs break out a keg of "Ass Whoopin'". Tampa Bay by 17.

Kansas City (-1) at Denver

Gabe: Kansas City - The Chiefs are who Dave thought they were. Only being a one point favorite against the lowly Broncos is a crime. Chiefs by at least a touchdown.

Dave: Kansas City - I smell trap here. Chiefs are coming off an emotional OT loss that may come back to haunt them and now have to travel to Denver to face a Broncos team coming off a bye. That could spell trouble. Begrudgingly, I'm going to stick with my Chiefs if only to crow once again about my preseason prediction that they'd take the West and the fact that people like The Big Adobo thought I was nuts. Chiefs win this one, but it's going to be closer than you'd think. KC by 3.

St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco

Gabe: St. Louis - I don't know if San Fran is going to turn it around this year. If they were going to do it typically St. Louis would be an easy team to pick on. Not this year. The Rams don't know that they are supposed to be bad. They just might be dumb enough to win the division. No way the Rams should be six point dogs in this game. I'll take the Rams for the outright win, by 6.

Dave: San Francisco - Here's something you may know but should scare you....the Niners are only two out in the NFC West after no-showing the first month of the season. You would think that would give me pause to take San Fran here but this might be a different team with Troy Smith at the helm. Frank Gore's still a beast and, at this time last year, Michael Crabtree was just getting into form and there could be a repeat of that this year. Sam Bradford's going to have a good day against this shotty SF secondary, but I'm not ready to punch out on the Niners just yet.

Seattle (+3) at Arizona

Gabe: Seattle - This game is the latest installment in my weekly "I wouldn't watch this game if they played in my driveway" special. Dave and I totally disagreed about these team in pre-season, and he's turned out to be right. Arizona is awful, so I'll take the Seahawks.

Dave: Seattle - Oh, how I was hoping we'd get another week of Charlie Whitehurst so I'd have a reason to take Arizona. Whitehurst may have had a worse opening week than "The Last Airbender". Both of these teams are terrible, but at gun point, I'll take the Seahawks and the points.

Dallas (+13.5) at N.Y. Giants

Gabe: Dallas - WHAT?!?! Hear me out. The Cowboys are awful. The Giants are the most complete team in the NFC and arguably playing the best football. Here's the thing, they played two weeks ago, in a game in which the Giants dominated the game physically and knocked out Tony Romo, and the Giants still only won by six. Now Jason Garrett is driving the ship for the Cowboys. I don't think the Cowboys are going to win, but I think this is exactly the game that will make them band together and play well. Giants by a touchdown.

Dave: Dallas - Damnit. I was hoping Gabe would homer out here and take his boys so I could take Dallas here and have another oppo to my name. Look, Dallas is going to lose here. The team has given up and changing coaches is like putting a band-aid on a compound fracture.....BUT....offensively, under Jason Garrett, they might be able to keep things close. Keep in mind, Steve Smith is out for Big Blue and you know New York is looking ahead to a much bigger game of consequence next week against the Eagles. Like Daddy Yankee up top said, the Giants only won by six last time and that was with brainless Wade Phillips and the Cowboys' offensive line falling asleep at the wheel. Giants roll here, but two touchdowns is asking a lot with Eli Manning and his noodle arm throwing in the Jersey winds.

New England (+4.5) at Pittsburgh

Gabe: Pittsburgh - The Steelers are playing well. The Pats are on a slide. I think the Pats will still be feeling the effects of the thumping the Browns gave them. They thought the Browns were physical? Wait until the Steelers D gets a hold of them. Pittsburgh by 7.

Dave: Pittsburgh - I'm a man of my word. So when I said last week that I was out on New England if they couldn't handle the Browns, I meant it. This Patriots defense is a step above mediocre and Belichick is foolish if he thinks he can get this team to the Super Bowl by brushing the dust off his 2001 magical run and beat teams with some dinking and dunking and an occasional run here and there. Steelers need this one to capitalize on the Ravens loss and I have no faith in New England beating any decent team at this point. Call it an overreaction if you'd like.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington

Gabe: Philadelphia - On Monday night, against a division rival, in a game they need to win. This is exactly the kind of game that causes the Redskins to play well. Unfortunately they have no offense. Philly by 10.

Dave: Washington - FINALLY! It's Vick vs McNabb......maybe. If Shanahan doesn't try to outsmart himself and sticks with Donovan, I think the Redskins not only win but they roll here. Remember how pissed off McNabb was after being benched for Kevin Kolb a few years ago against Baltimore and he came back and roasted Arizona on Thanksgiving. Well, you think Donovan's a bit angered now that he spent the last two weeks having his conditioning and work ethic questioned by his new coach AND the media? On top of that, HE'S PLAYING THE TEAM THAT KICKED HIM TO THE CURB! If Mangini vs the Pats and Jets was a revenge bang, this is a spiteful orgy for D-Mac and company. McNabb goes for three hundred and even runs one in for old time's sake. Redskins with the upset by 6.

2010 NFL Midseason Awards

Week 10 kicked off last night with the first entertaining Thursday night game in quite some time(even if the refs handed Atlanta the win with a mind-boggling missed offensive pass interference call on the Roddy White touchdown that sealed Baltimore's fate). That means we are at the 2010 season's midway point, which gives us an excuse to hand out some hardware. Here's our picks for midseason awards thus far.


Dave's Picks:


Coach of the Year: Steve Spagnuolo, Rams - Go ahead. Try to tell me you thought in August that the Rams, winners of six games in three years, were going to be atop their division with a rookie QB and its top two wideouts on the IR at this point in the season. Yes, the NFC West is a garbage pile of a division, but Spags' defensive pedigree has finally rubbed off on this team. Eventhough St. Louis will probably get squashed in the opening round of the playoffs, Spagnuolo deserves a tip of that cap for making a laughingstock into a respectable playoff team. Tom Cable deserves his just due for his work in Oakland, but for right now, I'm rolling with Spags.



Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ndomukong Suh, DT, Lions - This is pretty much a no-brainer. No other defensive rookie is really standing out and there's no question Suh has had an immediate impact on this Detroit front four. Suh leads all rookies in sacks with 6.5 and he's made his presence felt from Day 1 when he body-slammed Jake Delhomme in the preseason.



Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams - It's neck and neck between Bradford and Dallas' Dez Bryant. Still, as mentioned before in the Spagnuolo write-up, the fact that this team is 4-4 with Bradford(coming off two shoulder surgeries in a year, mind you) taking every snap under center and throwing to guys like Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson is nothing short of impressive. Bryant's been the lone bright spot on a Cowboys team that has been more disappointing than even I initially predicted and, with Jason Garrett now calling the shots, maybe he has a huge second half and passes Bradford for this thing. However, right now, I'm going to eat this plate of crow and say I was wrong about Sam Bradford.



Defensive Player of the Year: Clay Matthews Jr., LB, Packers - Having seen Clay Matthews both in person(against the Redskins) and on television(last week's rout of Dallas, in which "The Ultimate Warrior" took the Cowboys by storm), there is not a doubt in my mind 2010's best defender has been this guy right here......and it's not even close. He leads the league in sacks with 10.5 in 9 games and he's doing it on a defense with no other proven pass rusher and that is also missing numerous starters on its front seven. He's the second coming of Kevin Greene and, as seen in the Miami game and the second half against Washington, this Packers defense is punchless when he's not whirling around the field.



Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster, RB, Texans - By season's end, this will probably go to whatever QB doesn't get the MVP(since you can make the case for at least six signal-callers right now), but Foster deserves some props for coming out of nowhere to be the NFL's leading rusher at this point in the season. Foster will obviously need a big second half to fend off Adrian Peterson(who narrowly trails Foster for the rushing yards and rushing TD leads) as well as the other QBs.

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - I'll admit this is kind of a cop-out pick because the case can be made for Peyton and his laser-rocket arm every year. This year though, Manning's in the top 5 in the three major passing catagories all while dealing with a receiving core more battered than Antonio Margarito's face after last night's fight with Manny Pacquiao. Dallas Clark is done for the season. So is Anthony Gonzalez. Austin Collie, Manning's favorite target the first month of the season, missed time with busted ribs and is now slowed by a concussion. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon started off hobbled as well. That still hasn't stopped Peyton from connection to guys like Blair White(insert the predictible "Blair White Project" quips here) and Jacob Tamme. He's also gotten no help from the running game as Joesph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart have each taken part in a 3-way battle to find out who could be the most worthless. Now, if you want to switch it up and not give it to an obvious pick like #18, then a case can be made for a few others. Certianly, Tom Brady is in the running, but after shitting the bed against Cleveland, I'm out on him and the Patriots. As much as it makes me sick to my stomach, I could be talked into Gabe's mancrush Eli Manning for MVP consideration. Aaron Rodgers is still in it, so long as Green Bay stays in contention. The real dark horse contender, and a guy I nearly switched my pick too after Thursday's performance, is Falcons QB Matt Ryan. He's clutch in close games(something Rodgers lacks...much to my chagrin) and he and Roddy White are the new Manning-to-Harrison. Right now though, it's Peyton Manning for the league's top honor unless one of these other guys steps it up.

Gabe's Picks:


Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay - As much as I love Spags in St. Louis, mostly because of his New York Giants pedigree, I have to go with Morris. As surprising as the 4-4 Rams have been, I think the Bucs being 5-3 is more surprising. They are in a tougher division and have less talent to work with, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Morris has injected this team with a confidence and a swagger they haven't had since their Super Bowl era. The emergence of Josh Freeman at QB and Mike Williams at WR (the other Mike Williams, not the soon-to-be Comeback POY in Seattle) has been incredible. As Dan Patrick might say, all Josh Freeman does is win. Well, that comes from the top. All Raheem Morris knows how to do is win. (One quick aside; I asked my wife, who is not a football fan, who she thought was the Coach of the year. Her response? "Not Wade Phillips. He loses.")


Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis - You might be able to make the case for the afore mentioned Mike Williams (again, Tampa Bay, not Seattle), or Dez Bryant, and for the sake of showing him some love, Aaron Hernandez, but Bradford is the pick here. He is leading a team full of journeyman, but has them at 4-4, and on top of their division. He's made some typical rookie mistakes, but he has thrown more TD's than picks, 11 to 8, and is on pace to throw for more than 3,300 yards. That's good enough in my book.


Defensive Rookie of the Year: A man named Suh, DE, Detroit Lions - It was easier to say that than try and correctly spell Ndomukong...wait, what? Anyway, 6.5 sacks already, stepping up and trying to kick. Like Dave said, he has been wreaking havoc since week one when he gave Jake Delhomme a welcome to the NFL moment.


Offensive Player of the Year: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego - I would also make the case for River to be MVP right now. I know the Chargers aren't playing very well, but that's not Rivers' fault. In fact, the little success this team has had is because of him putting the team on his back. He leads the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns, and is third with a 102.9 passer rating. All of this without being able to throw to Vincent Jackson and having part of the cast of Dragonball Z catching the ball for him. This man has been the definition of doing more with less, and therefore gets my pick.


Defensive Player of the Year: Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay - I hate to agree this much with Dave, but there is no other choice. As someone who has also seen this man play live (alongside the Big Margherita) and watched him on TV, Clay Matthews is scary. It is unreal how he is constantly in the backfield, in the quarterback's face, and burying people. The Packers will be really scary when they can figure out how to properly use A.J. Hawk along with Matthews. I'm going to push for Matthews to have a new nickname. "That Man," as in, "Mama there go That Man again!" He might break Michael Strahan's puffed up single season sack record, and this Giants fan (and former linebacker) won't mind.

MVP: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego - I made the case for Rivers already, using numbers. There are some players who could be considered for this award. Either Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matty Ice...to name a few. Dave's choice, Peyton, has lead his team to five wins, only one more than Rivers. And again, Rivers has done it all on his own. The other test for an MVP award is which team would suffer the most if that player was taken away. If Peyton was not on the Colts, they would be awful, but they could cobble together some wins. If Rivers were all of a sudden injured and couldn't play, the Chargers might not win again.

Week 10 Picks

This week marks the start of Thursday night games on the NFL Network. Tonight, we get a suprisingly intriguing matchup between the Ravens and Falcons. I'll save all the buildup and talk about last week's results for the Sunday games and we'll dive right into this.

Ravens (+1) at Falcons

Dave: Ravens - I initially liked Atlanta here but with Roddy White hobbled and the Ravens riding the momentum from their beatdown of Miami last week, I had a change of heart. Teams have been able to throw on this Baltimore pass D, and that would mean a big day for Matt Ryan if not for the fact his top target is hurt. I see Joe Flacco picking apart this pourous Falcons D, Ray Rice outplaying Michael Turner and Ed Reed making a house call. Ravens by 10 on the road.

Gabe: Ravens - No fun tonight as Dave and I agree. He's absolutely right about the Ravens' pass defense, and it would be a concern if Roddy White was healthy. Ray Rice goes off for Baltimore (and, more importantly, my fantasy team, Ray Rice and the Late Nite Sweethearts.) Flacco spreads the ball around to all of his weapons and the Ravens win outright by a touchdown.

Week 9 Picks

The momentum from my 9-5 performance a couple weeks ago evaporated quicker than the excitement Vikings had for the return of Randy Moss. Week 8 wasn't really all that impressive for either of us, although Gabe was the only one able to keep his head above .500.

This week, it's BoomRoasted Birthday Week, with Pitbull Jr. turning Terrell Davis on Tuesday(that's 30, for you slow folks) and yours truly, The Big Margherita, turning Curtis Martin on Wednesday(28). Perhaps the birthday cheer will wipe some of the stank off our picks for one week.......probably not. Anyway, here's our take on Week 9.

Last Week: (Dave 6-7, Gabe 7-6)

Season: (Dave 43-53-3, Gabe 48-48-3)

Bears (-3) at Bills

Dave: Bills - You have to figure there is going to be a week where Buffalo stops finding ways to lose and notches it's first W and, really, why wouldn't that come at home(albeit in Toronto) against a Bears team that's four months away from trading "Sulking" Jay Cutler to Washington and taking a flier on hometown boy Donovan McNabb? Buffalo has spent the last few weeks giving teams such as the Pats, Ravens and Chiefs(all playoff teams, mind you) everything it could handle. The Bears, meanwhile, have spent the last few weeks getting Lovie Smith's TV career started. I see a sneaky Buffalo pass D stifling Cutler and the Bills pull out the "upset" with a 6 point win, while Andrew Luck starts house-hunting in upstate New York.

Gabe: Bills

Chargers (-2.5) at Texans

Dave: Texans - I maintain that, had Kenny Britt been healthy, the Chargers would have found a way to lose to Tennessee last week and continue to be one of the NFL's biggest letdowns. That didn't happen, of course, as San Diego kept Norv Turner from his rightful spot on the chopping block with a win against the Titans. Still, I don't think the Chargers are very good. They do have the league's best pass D but they really haven't been up against a team that can sling it like Houston does. Yes, Houston is on short rest. Yes, the Chargers need this one more. Yes, Arian Foster hasn't been the manchild many thought he was after his Week 1 breakout. Still, Norv can't hide his mediocrity any longer. Texans roll here by 10.

Gabe: Texans - No. 1 wide receiver Patrick Crayton. Philip Rivers might be a great quarterback, but he'll be throwing to guys who'll be back manning the coat check in two weeks. Texans win big.

Saints (-6.5) at Panthers

Dave: Saints - The Saints have teased people into thinking their fully back after an impressive win against Pittsburgh last week. I'm still in wait-and-see mode with the defending champs. Drew Brees seems a bit more hurt than the team lets on. The defense is suspect and the running game, even with the former Mr. Kim Kardashian coming back, is still dormant. Luckily, the Panthers suck out loud and, if the Saints are really back, they'll flatten Carolina as Bill Cowher starts stroking his chin in anticipation of coming back onto the sidelines and filling in for John Fox next season. Saints by 14.

Gabe: Saints - They need this win. It's a division game against a sorry team. The Saints are supposed to win this and they will, big.

Cardinals (+8) at Vikings

Dave: Cardinals - Oh, Brad Childress, you aren't nearly as smart as you think you are. Waiving Randy Moss to take people's minds off the shit job of coaching you've done so far this year? That may work with the less perceptive crowd, but not on me, Chilly. Look, you went from being a hot coaching prospect to a dud. You begged Favre to come back and it blew up in your face. You tried to bring back Moss to keep Brett motivated and that bombed, too. Your pass rush is non-existant and Favre is too stupid to sit down despite being badly hurt. Yes, the Cardinals aren't very good and going back to Derek Anderson may be a bad choice, but you can't expect me to pick Minnesota giving eight points against anyone not named Carolina right now. Vikes get the W, but Arizona makes them work for it.

Gabe: Cardinals - This seems easy. The Vikings have replaced the Raiders as the most dysfunctional team in the league. Chilly reportedly almost threw hands with Harvin this week. Dave's right, eight points is way too many. I'm not saying the Cards win either, but they definitely beat the spread.

Bucs (+8.5) at Falcons

Dave: Bucs - Another spread I don't quite understand. Atlanta's a good home team in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome but Josh Freeman and his fourth quarter heroics this season has saw to it that every Tampa Bay game will be a nail biter this season. On top of that, maybe the Bucs just plain aren't terrible? Freeman's legs make up for the lack of a running game and the defense bends but doesn't break. Do I see them beating Atlanta? Not really. Could they make them sweat a little bit and cover a head-scratcher of a spread? Yeah. Falcons underestimate Tampa Bay here, but I like them for a 4 point W.

Gabe: Falcons - This the Bucs show-me game. As in, show me you're for real. Show me you can win a game without luck and the two minute drill. Show me you can go into a division rivals house and win a game that means a lot to your young team. I don't think they have it in them. The Falcons are good and too experienced. They hold off the upstarts and win by 10.

Jets (-4) at Lions

Dave: Jets - Bad timing for the Lions. As impressive as last week's upset(if you'd call it that) of Washington was, they now get a Jets team that just spent a week having to hear it from the NY media about how they shit the bed at home against a beat-up Packers team. Facing an angry and desperate Super Bowl contender with the weight of the world on its shoulders after they got skunked at home? Not a good look for Motown. Revis Island is going to gobble up Megatron, which will make things rough for Matt Stafford and this stifling Jets run D shuts down Jahvid Best. Ndomukong Suh continues his rampage on his way to the ROTY with a couple sacks of Mark Sanchez, but Jets avoid a riot in Manhattan by taking care of Detroit.

Gabe: Jets - The Jets need to win this game to continue to be taken seriously. They take care of business.

Dolphins (+5) at Ravens

Dave: Dolphins - It's easy to overreact to Baltimore getting caught off-guard by Buffalo a couple weeks ago and nearly losing in a shootout and start thinking that the Ravens aren't what many thought they were in the preseason. That would be silly. The Ravens are still one of the three best teams in football, even if Pittsburgh's loss last week takes some of the oomph out of Baltimore beating the Steelers a month ago. So why do I like Miami here? Because it's tough for me to like Baltimore by any more than a field goal against any team with a pulse. You'd like to think they'd come out firing after a bye week and "Anabolic" Ray Lewis will start roid raging all over the 'Phins, but I'm not sold just yet. The Ravens secondary isn't skilled enough, even with Ed Reed back, to completely shut down Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess(this year's Miles Austin) and Miami was able to shake off the "We Got Jobbed by The Refs Against Pittsburgh So We're Going To Throw A Pity Party For Ourselves And Play Sloppy" underperformance in their win over Cincy last week. So I like Baltimore to win here, but by no more than a field goal.

Gabe: Baltimore - All of the talk is about how Miami hasn't lost a road game all year. That ends today. The Ravens' D is not going to let that continue. Baltimore by a touchdown.

Patriots (-4) at Browns

Dave: Patriots - Let's not get too cute here. The Browns have been scrappy all season and they pulled off a nice upset a couple weeks ago with their win against New Orleans, but if the Pats are as good as many power polls and rankings are making them out to be, they'll run the train on Cleveland this week. You want to carry yourselves as the best team in football? You want your fans to claim that old New England magic is back? Let's see you curb-stomp a game but undermanned Browns team on the road. I see Brady spreading the ball around like he did before he fell in love with Randy Moss and I see "Law Firm" (the nickname given by Pats faithful to multi-named RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis) tasting the end zone at least once. This is the week Patriots prove themselves to me. If they can't win this one by two touchdowns, I'm out on New England as the best team in football.

Gabe: Patriots - I hate to say this but Tom Brady might be the MVP of the league again. Belichick is going to coach vindictively this week and show the Browns what they gave up on. Pats win huge.

Giants (-7) at Seahawks

Dave: Giants - I was momentarily scared to take Captian Reggaeton's boys here. After all, Seattle's a tough place to play and we all know Forrest Gump gets rattled in pressure situations(and before Giants fans point out Eli's drive against New England in the Super Bowl, I'll point out that David Tyree's helmet catch saved Eli's ass. To me, this man is not an MVP candidate and, if his last name was Janikowski and he played in Kansas City instead of New York, he wouldn't have nearly the pub he's generated since the Giants '07 Super Bowl upset). All of my momentum to take Seattle though was wiped out by the announcement that Charlie Whitehurst would be making his NFL debut this week. A man who has never started an NFL game playing in one of the loudest stadiums in the game against THIS pass rush? Yikes! I think the Giants take care of business here, the D gets to Whitehurst about five times and Eli throws for 3 TDs and makes guys like Gabe and Peter King let loose with the jizz for another week. Giants by 10.

Gabe: Giants - For my birthday this week the Seahawks are letting the Giants pass rush tee off on Charlie Whitehurst. Done and done. Big Blue by 14.

Chiefs (+1) at Raiders

Dave: Chiefs - THIS is being heralded as the "Game of the Week"? Why? Because experts think this game has some kind of playoff/division implications because it's a showdown between two surprise teams that happen to be a game apart in the AFC West. I'm sorry. I know we live in the Hyperbole Era, but I have a hard time finding any game with significant playoff/division implications in Week 9(Although, try telling that to my wife, who is a Chiefs fan and has been stressed out all week about a potential loss to Oakland). There's just too much season left to get worked up over this game. When you look at both of these two teams, they are both nearly indentical. Both offenses are led by impressive running games(the two-headed monster of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones for the Chiefs and the breakout performances of Darren McFadden for Oakland). Both defenses are good but not great with a couple playmakers sprinkled over the top. The difference is, and this is why I took KC, is quarterback play. I like Matt Cassell to outplay Jason Campbell simply based on Cassell having what Campbell doesn't: a proven receiver(in this case, Dwayne Bowe). Chiefs win this one by a field goal and experts spend a week talking about KC as a Super Bowl contender......in early November. Sigh.

Gabe: Kansas City - I still don't believe in the Raiders, but I'm coming around on KC.

Colts (+3) at Eagles

Dave: Colts - Man, I can't like the Colts enough in this one. While not a night game, it's still Peyton Manning in a late game against one of the shakiest secondaries in the league. On top of that, Manning gets Austin Collie back to go along with a healthy Pierre Garcon and a semi-reliable Reggie Wayne(Fearless prediction though: Manning tries to force one into Wayne and ends up connecting with Asante Samuel for a pick-6....you know, for old time's sake). Mike Vick is back at QB for Philly as is DeSean Jackson at wideout after a concussion. Both are going to need time to shake off the rust and, with the way Manning's throwing the ball this season, it might be too late by time both are ready to go. Manning continues his MVP campaign and I continue to scratch my head as to why Philly is even favored here. Colts by 13.

Gabe: Colts - I hate that Dave and I agree this much this week.

Cowboys (+7.5) at Packers

Dave: Cowboys - The week for Dallas to prove that haven't given up on coach Wade Phillips and are eager to save him from his inevitable destination as a Division I-AA head coach was last week when the Cowboys completely gave up against lowly Jacksonville. Now, you would think, "Well, if Dallas couldn't get up for Jacksonville, what makes anyone think they can top a Packers team in Lambeau that just shut out the Jets?". A fair question, but Green Bay has proven in losses to Chicago, Washington and Miami that they are just as capable of shitting the bed. The running game is non-existent. The offensive line, while better than it was at this point last year, is still shaky and the return of Atari Bigsby at safety means the Packers will keep at least two Dallas drives alive with untimely Bigsby unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. Yes, it's asking a lot to expect Jon Kitna to take advantage of any Green Bay mistakes and pull off an upset. It's also asking a lot to pick a Packers offense that has struggled to muster up the kind of big scoring numbers many hoped before they lost Ryan Grant to go out there and throttle a desperate Cowboys team. I like my boys to win this one but not by more than a touchdown.

Gabe: Packers - The Cowboys coaching staff will find a way to give this game away, like they always do. Packers by 10.

Steelers (-4.5) at Bengals

Dave: Steelers - Big potential week for Pittsburgh to reclaim its crown as the best team in the NFL. The Patriots face a tricky Browns team on the road. Baltimore will have a tough test against Miami and Indy could very well choke against Philly(though I'd say that's the least likely of the three scenarios here). That means the Steelers could take the field against a cagey-but-inconsistent division rival and show the world what they are made of. Big Ben isn't fully back yet but his track record playing in his home state of Ohio is impeccable. Plus, Carson Palmer died tragically a few years ago, and his corpse has mysteriously taken snaps behind center as if it were possessed by the same music that propped up Jonathan Silverman's boss in "Weekend at Bernie's II". The Bengals don't have the pass rush to make Roethlisberger sweat and the Steelers are going to batter Cincy's weak middle with a steady dose of Rashard Mendenhall. This game was already going to be ugly for the Bengals, but if any of those afforementioned three slip up Sunday, Pittsburgh is going to come into Cincinatti with a huge chip on its shoulder and a can opener big enough for a huge jug of whoop-ass. Steelers by 13.

Gabe: Steelers - It's 1:04pm and I need to get these done. Good D beats good O. Steelers by 10.