Yeah.....But......

If there's a headline for the 2010 NFL season through the first 10 weeks, it would read "We Just Don't Know". Nobody seems willing to run away from the pack and emerge as the team to beat. You can legitimately talk yourself into Super Bowl scenarios involving 10 or 12 different teams. Last night, the Steelers lost to the Patriots.....who lost to the Browns a week ago. The Browns lost to the same Jets team in OT that got skunked by the Packers two weeks ago.......the same Packers team that lost heartbreakers to Miami and Washington and completely annihilated the Dallas Cowboys......the same Dallas Cowboys that beat the New York Giants.......who beat the Cowboys a couple weeks ago....and seemed like the team to beat in the NFC. Now, the team to beat in the NFC might be the Atlanta Falcons....who beat the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday.....the same Ravens that beat the Steelers a few weeks ago.....and the same Steelers who won their opener against....wait for it.....the Atlanta Falcons.



The Kansas City Chiefs, my chic AFC West pick that I spent the first month ringing my hands about, have now lost two straight within the division and look very ordinary. Speaking of the Chiefs, there seems to be only one certainty this season: There will be three byes in this year's playoffs in each conference......the two top seeds and whoever draws the AFC and NFC West division winners. Seriously. Look at the the potential Wild Card winners in both conferences. You don't like the Steelers or Patriots' chances of going into Arrowhead or The Black Hole and getting a win? Does St. Louis or Seattle scare you on the road if you're a Packers or Saints fan? Well, if they do, I can't blame you because......we just don't know.



To help us know a little more, here's a breakdown of all the teams with a legit shot at Super Bowl contention and what's to like and not like going forward:



AFC



New England Patriots(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Tom Brady's in MVP form even without his former deep threat Randy Moss. Brady picked apart Pittsburgh last night, connecting on three TDs to rookie TE Rob Gronkowski. The Pats are back to spreading it around and with the way Brady's slinging it, it's going to be tough to stop.



Why They Might Not: It's the same song since Corey Dillon left: Where's the running game? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a nice back and maybe he could be a Antione Smith redux barrelling through the snowy grass in Beantown, but he's not someone you should fear as a defensive coordinator. Speaking of defense, I don't trust this Patriots D one bit. The secondary's decent but it did get torched quite a bit against Pittsburgh and against a team that can sling it like Indy or even Baltimore, I'm not sure how they'd hold up. Brady's good enough to win most shootouts but with a suspect D, inexperienced weapons beyond Wes Welker and Deion Branch and no real running game, you can only go so far with smoke and mirrors. I said I was out on New England after Cleveland trounced them. The beatdown of Pittsburgh helps them get back in my good graces but until they can prove they can smack a team like the Jets in the mouth and live to talk about it, I'm skeptical.



New York Jets(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: The running game is strong thanks to the rebirth of LaDainian Tomlinson and you have to figure Shonn Greene is going to get back in the swing of things sooner rather than later. Mark Sanchez is coming into his own in Year 2 and he's getting good production out of once-stonehanded Braylon Edwards and the returning Santonio Holmes, not to mention TE Dustin Keller. The defense is once again in the top five in total defense and against the run and now they have a healthy Darrelle Revis to improve that 15th-ranked pass defense.



Why They Might Not: Of the potential contenders, the Jets are the hardest to find flaws on. They've managed to shore up the run D even without massive NT Kris Jenkins and they'll be better against the pass with Revis back. Still, this team proved in its home loss to Green Bay that it's capable to laying an egg and a couple plays here and there, and they'd be staring 4-4 after OT losses to inferior teams like Detroit and Cleveland the last two weeks. Rex Ryan also has the tendency to quote the "Andy Reid Clock Management" manual and you wonder if the arrogance of both the head coach and some of its players is going to come back to haunt them. Right now, they may be the best team in football, but you have to wonder if these last three weeks were an aberration or a sign of things to come.



Baltimore Ravens(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: On both sides of the ball, they have as much talent as anybody. QB Joe Flacco has been solid(15 TDs, 7 INTs, 2,132 yards) and he's starting to develop some rhythem with Anquan Boldin as his go-to guy. Ray Rice hasn't been the TD machine many had hoped but nearly 700 yards through 9 games is nothing to turn your nose at. Defensively, Ray Lewis is still the leader of the best front seven in football and guys like Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata have been putting on a clinic all season.



Why The Might Not: It's still hard to figure out this team's identity on offense. Are they a smashmouth team that's going to run it down your throat with guys like Rice and Willis McGahee or are they going to let Flacco air it out with his bevy of possession receivers. As good as the trio of Boldin, Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmanzadeh may be, there's no real deep threat on the roster beyond Donte Stallworth. Who's making a play on 3rd and long? Todd Heap? Defensively, for all its skill up front, the secondary's a mess beyond S Ed Reed. The Ravens give up far too much through the air and the only thing keeping them somewhat respectable is a good pass rush and Reed's reputation. Given Reed's tricky hip, it's asking a lot to expect him to be the only line of defense in a conference that has teams like Indy and New England as pass-first teams. The team also is a bit unlucky. Some questionable coaching decisions hurt them in their loss to New England and bad officiating killed them Thursday night against Atlanta.....and this is after a preseason that saw them lose a lot of talent(Jared Gaither, Sergio Kindle, Fabian Washington to name a few). Sure, injuries are part of the game and no team can manage karma, but it's hard to bet on a team that's spent the first half of the season watching the ball bounce the other way.



Pittsburgh Steelers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: They are getting a big year on the ground from Rashard Mendenhall and second-year wideout Mike Wallace is becoming one of the game's best #2 receivers. Big Ben is back as well and he's shaking more rust off as the weeks pass. The defense has been pretty stout as well, last night's game not included, as they finally have S Troy Polamalu healthy. Once Roethlisberger is back to his old self(and really, there's no reason why he shouldn't be by now), this team becomes a lot more dangerous on offense.



Why They Might Not: Roethlisberger's effectiveness is contingent on him staying upright and, even with the four games off giving him some freshness, there's only so much that 250lb pound frame is going to be willing to take behind this swiss-cheese offensive line. Speaking of lines, this defense is already feeling the effects once again of having to solider on without DE Aaron Smith. Smith is the catalyst for this new Steel Curtain and, without him, the whole D goes into disarray. Another underlying flaw? The inevitable suspension of star LB James Harrison, who has shown a willingness to test Commissioner Goodell's patience on the new policy on jarring hits. Harrison's been fined a couple times already since the rule change and he's adamant on not changing his ways for anyone. If Harrison has to miss time because Goodell lays the hammer, that would be yet another huge loss for the Steelers defense.



Indianapolis Colts(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Peyton Manning. That's it. That's all. He's balling out as usual and he's doing it without Dallas Clark and with guys like Pierre Garcon underachieving and Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne banged up. On defense, Dwight Freeney is still upright, which means opposing offenses have to be afraid to throw it. The secondary has been decent and they can make a play here and there if Freeney and fellow bookend Robert Mathis get some pressure.



Why They Might Not: The running game is non-existent. They are 27th in rushing for a reason. That reason? Joesph Addai is hurt, so is Donald Brown and the other guys stink. On top of that, not only can they not run the ball, they can't stop it either(29th against the run). That's a bad sign when facing teams like the Jets or Ravens or, by some miracle, Kansas City or Oakland. As great as Manning has been, he's going to need Garcon to step it up and Collie to stay healthy to keep defenses from smothering Wayne. The Colts made it to the Super Bowl last year without much of a running game and getting a turnover here and there, but lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice.



(Side note: You will not find the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams or Seahawks in this breakdown. As proud as I am of my Chiefs pick, they need to beat a team with a pulse before I consider them a contender. For now, they run the ball well and the defense is better than you think, but this team is still a year or two away from serious consideration. As for the others, well, you give me a reason to consider them, and I'll gladly put it in this spot.)



NFC



Atlanta Falcons(7-2)



Why They Could Win It: Matt Ryan's the MVP dark horse right now and he spearheads an offense alongside the speedy and punishing Michael Turner at running back and Ryan's favorite target Roddy White. Turner and TE Tony Gonzalez make up one of the toughest red zone combos to stop in the NFL. "The Burner" has bounced back after a tough year last year and he's getting a breather or two from backup Jason Snelling. The key, however, has been "Matty Ice"(easily the worst nickname of any major athlete that isn't a name hyphen like D-Rose or A-Rod). Ryan's thrown for nearly 2,300 yards and 16 TDs and has made the Falcons the team to beat in the NFC after I spent the preseason scoffing at people who told me I was sleeping on Atlanta.



Why They Might Not: The defense leaves much to be desired. They are horrid against the pass(23rd in the NFL....not a good look for a team that may have to face the Packers or Saints in Round 2) and, while the run defense is 8th in the league, they haven't really faced a good rushing team yet besides Pittsburgh(which beat them thanks to Mendenhall's 120 yard day, including a 50-yard go-ahead score) and Baltimore(who should have beat them). Even Philly trounced this Falcons team, and that was without Micheal Vick scrambling all over the field. Now, the Falcons don't really have to worry about a good rushing team in this conference besides the Giants and possibly St. Louis(if they even make it that far), but in a Super Bowl matchup against the Jets or rematches with the Steelers and Ravens? Yikes.



New York Giants(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: It pains me to even type the words but Eli Manning is in the mix as well for the MVP, throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 TDs so far. Hakeem Nicks(56 catches, 735 yards, 9 TDs) has been an absolute beast in his second season. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is among the league's leading rushers with 838 yards and, as winter approaches, defenses have to become plenty afraid of Brandon Jacobs shaking the rigamortis off his 6'4, 260lb body. And this defense? Just as I suspected. Big Blue's pass rush has been more punishing than a Manny Pacquaio hook and more cringe-worthy than Chris Berman's 2-Minute Drill. Osi Umenyiora(9 sacks) would be Defensive Player of the Year if not for Clay Matthews' excellence so far. Justin Tuck has been putting in some effort as well(4 sacks). Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul....well, he hasn't broken out as I predicted, but it's still early. The secondary is much better than the bunch that was burned constantly last year(yesterday's torching by Jon Kitna not included) and that, combined with the pass rush, is why this team is 4th against the pass.



Why They Might Not: This team is it's own worst enemy. Who knows what New York's record would be if not for their chronic case of turnover-itis. The Giants currently have a -5 turnover margin. They've lost 12 fumbles and Manning's tossed 13 picks to go with his 19 TDs. With the way this team moves the ball, teams wouldn't come close to them if they could find a way to stop giving the ball away.



Green Bay Packers(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Green Bay has gotten phenomenal play from QB Aaron Rodgers and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Clay Matthews. Rodgers has 2,300 yards and 15 TDs and is leading an offense that's had to play without TE Jermichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant. The offensive line is doing a much better job of protecting Rodgers than they did last year. As for Matthews, his performance against Dallas last week is all you need to know about his dominance. He's the league leader in sacks and he has been all over the place all season. His pressure as well as the rush from linemen Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji has made things easier for defending defensive MVP Charles Woodson and underrated fellow corner Tramon Williams.



Why They Might Not: When Grant went down, so did the Packers' running game. Brandon Jackson has been so bad as Grant's replacement that the team flirted with the idea of using FB John Kuhn as its lead back for a couple weeks before Kuhn faltered as well. Injuries have made what could have been an elite team into a just a very good one. The offensive line is improved but it still needs work(especially in opening holes for the run game). Rodgers has gotten a little careless with the ball, too. After throwing 7 picks all last season(mind you, while he was getting constant pressure), he's thrown 9 picks in 9 games. He's done better the last couple of weeks, but given the fact he'll be throwing a lot with the running game underperforming, he needs to be wiser with his decisions. Another cause for concern? This team's ineptitude in close games. They are 6-3 but could easily be 9-0. All three losses are by a combined nine points, two of those losses coming in overtime after the led late in the game. The 9-0 shutout of the Jets was nice, but in the next month they get a hobbled Vikings team, and then go at Atlanta(where Matt Ryan is 18-1 so far) and at New England. Those are tough tests for a team that doesn't have its own division locked up yet.



Chicago Bears(6-3)



Why They Could Win It: Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. The Bears six wins this season have come against the NFL's lower crust(Detroit, Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota), with the exception of a win against Green Bay that the Bears did everything in their power to give away. Matt Forte has done a decent job of both rushing and catching out of the backfield but he only has a little over 600 yards combined. Jay Cutler shows flashes of being able to excel in this Mike Martz offense, but those have been few and far between. Defensively, this unit has carried the team, thanks to some stout play against the run.



Why They Might Not: This may be the worst 6-3 team in history. The offensive line has done nothing to protect Cutler. He's been sacked 29 times in 8 games and he's thrown 9 INTs as he continues to chuck and duck. Neither Forte or Chester Taylor has done much for the run game, and these Bears receivers have been pedestrian at best. On defense, Julius Peppers has just two sacks after signing that big contract in the offseason. In essence, this team has one noteworthy to its name and it needed 17 penalties and a costly fumble just to win by three. Until it proves it can beat a good team, they are lock to lose the division to Green Bay, be on the outside looking in come January and start over completely in the offseason.

Philadelphia Eagles(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: The return of Mike Vick as not just an adequate stop-gap, but a solid starting quarterback. Regardless of what the Colin Cowherds of the world may think, Vick's performance in Monday night's slaughtering of the Redskins was one of the best single-game outings we've seen in recent memory. His touchdown strike to DeSean Jackson on the opening play of the game, where he launches a pass 60+ yards from his own 2 and hits Jackson right in the hands, is the play of the season thus far. If Vick can maintain his accuracy to go along with being an electrifying runner, this Eagles offense is going to be tough to stop. As for the other Eagles, Jackson and fellow speedster Jeremy Maclin give this team a speed dimension that is almost like a bizarro "Greatest Show On Turf". Add to the underrated skills of tight end Brent Celek and a decent 1-2 punch of Jerome Harrison and Shady McCoy, and the Eagles possess one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football.

Why They Might Not: The defense is a bit middle-of-the-pack. They are giving up an average of 23 points per game and have been a bit weak against the pass. Asante Samuel has lost a step since coming over from New England a couple years ago, and the rest of the guys are pedestrian with the exception of rookie FS Nate Allen. The front seven has some talent, but injuries have depleted the linebacking core. A bigger issue than that, of course, is the continued horrid clock management of head coach Andy Reid. Monday's blowout saved us from another head-scratching performance by Big Red but go back to the opener against Green Bay when Reid blew all of his timeouts with about 5 minutes to spare in a game that got surprisingly close at the end. There's a reason Reid's teams have underachieved over the years despite all the talent and that reason starts and ends with the heavy-set fellow with the thick mustache. Another concern should be the health of Vick. With as much as he likes to run in the open field, all it takes is another hit like the rib-crusher he took in the first Redskins game to revert this team to the Kevin Kolb "dink and dunk" show.

New Orleans Saints(6-3)

Why They Could Win It: Experience. Unlike the other teams in the NFC, the Saints know what they have to do in the postseason to make it back to the Super Bowl. Drew Brees, while clearly the latest victim of the Madden Curse, is still deadly with the ball in his hands and a few seconds to throw. Lance Moore has made a resurgence as Brees' #2 and Marques Colston is quietly having a good year as well. Eventually, the team will get RB Reggie Bush back and he will be yet another playmaker for Brees to utilize. The defense, once an Achilles' heel for this team, has stepped it up as well. New Orleans currently holds the league's top pass defense(stunning, considering they are without Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper) and are 3rd in total yards allowed and 4th in points allowed.

Why They Might Not: Even with Bush, this team can't run the ball to save its life. New Orleans is 25th in rushing and have been trying to stay afloat with the likes of guys like Chris Ivory. The passing game has made up for the lack of a run game but that can't last for too long(especially since my gut tells me there is something going on with Brees' knee that the team and Brees himself are failing to let on). The defense could also be better against the run. Eventhough this has become a passing league and the Saints can shoot it out with the best of them, the team has to be able to get stops and keep the D off the field for long stretches, especially since Brees and company strike so quickly on offense.