Week 12 Picks

The NFL has turned the annual Thanksgiving Dallas/Detroit two-step into three-step and gives us three holiday games. As usual we will save the look back at last week for Sunday and pick the early games first.


So marinate on these picks while you enjoy your turkey, unless you're a level-5 vegan, like Dave, and don't eat anything that casts a shadow. (How's that for a deeeeeeep Simpsons reference?)
As always, we got these lines from Danny Sheridan of the USA Today.


New England (-6.5) at Detroit


Gabe: Detroit - My theme for these games could be "I can see the underdogs winning," because, well, I can see all of the underdogs winning. I'm not saying that is actually going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. About this game specifically...New England has played two tough games in a row. They will be on short rest and could suffer a hangover. And, they have to travel. Yes, Detroit is on a short week too, but they are at home and are playing decently. If they can get anything out of Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best, I think they can keep it close. I don't think New England is going to lose, but I think the Lions keep it within 6.


Dave: New England - It's simple math really. The Lions got pounced by a Cowboys team that, to me, is still lousy even if they are a little more motivated under Jason Garrett. The Patriots, as of right now, are the best team in football. They've beaten Indy. They've beaten Pitt. They've beaten Baltimore. They've beaten San Diego. That's four quality wins so far. Detroit, meanwhile, doesn't have four wins...period. Shaun Hill will make this game entertaining because the Patriots D gives up quite a bit of yards and points(especially through the air), but in the end, Pats by a touchdown seems like a gimme.


New Orleans (-3.5) at Dallas


Gabe: New Orleans - New Orleans finally seems to have together. Dallas has won two games in a row under new coach Jason Garrett. Both teams are extremely talented, especially on offense. So what is going to give? I think the emotion that brought Dallas together in their last two games is going to wear off and they are actually going to have to play now. Jason Garrett still doesn't know how to manage his talent. I think this game is going to come down to a late decision, and I trust Sean Payton more than Garrett, Drew Brees more than Jon Kitna, and Marques Colston's hands more than Roy Williams'. Give me the champs by a touchdown.


Dave: Dallas - The Saints are actually surprisingly good against the pass(the one thing the Cowboys does well), so why do I like Dallas? Because the Saints, who started out as the NFL's most maddeningly inconsistent team, is due for a letdown and Dallas is riding high coming off two straight W's under Jason Garrett. Are the Cowboys good? Well, in my eyes, no, but I see DeMarcus Ware putting pressure on Drew Brees(like he did in their upset last year) and the 'Boys eking out a victory which will lead to weeks of "Are the Cowboys back in the playoff picture?" talk. Cowboys, in an upset, by 6.

Cincinnati (+8.5) at N.Y. Jets


Gabe: Cincinnati - Here's what's going to happen. The Jets are going to have a four touchdown lead at halftime. Revis Island will be thriving and he'll completely shut down one half of the T.O.cho show. That means in the second half, Carson Palmer and the unmarooned receiver will get their heads out of their asses and play some football. The 2010 Cincinnati Bengals might be the greatest garbage time team in the history of the NFL. They'll put up big numbers, score some TD's, get it to within a touchdown, and then go home. Jets win, but only by seven.



Dave: Jets - Of all the games on Turkey Day, I don't think I can like a team more than I like the Jets this week. The Bengals gave up a 40-burger and a three-touchdown lead to Buffalo last week. Their pass rush is non-existent. Carson Palmer is 8 weeks away from signing with the UFL. The Jets, meanwhile, have kept things close, but I see Palmer doing everything in his power to make sure this game is a blowout for Gang Green. Revis Island shuts down T.O., while Ochocinco pouts. L.T. goes off and we see another score from the vaunted Mark Sanchez-to-Santonio Holmes connection. If the Jets are for real(and I think they are), they win this one by 14.