Sunday, October 9, 2011

NFL Picks Week 5


The good news? The boys were both above .500 last week with identical 9-7 records.

The bad news? Being one game over .500 is enough to say one had a good week.

The other bad news? This means Father Guido Sarducci is still up five games in the season series.



Week 4:
Dave: 9-7
Gabe: 9-7

Season:
Dave: 32-27-5
Gabe: 27-32-5

We have the first byes of the season this week, so on to Week 5!

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina

Dave: Carolina - Without question, the Saints are going to win this one but Cam Newton has shown the tendency to ruin sure-fire covers for the favorite with junk time scores. The Saints D gives up plenty of yardage and Cam-Cam, even with a receiving core that doesn't go beyond Steve Smith and Greg Olsen, is going to narrow whatever big-time gap Drew Brees and company lays on them after the first three quarters. I say this one is closer than we think. Saints by 4.

Gabe: New Orleans - Panthers QB Cam Newton has silenced critics in many ways. The one thing its seems he can't do is close the deal and win games. The real problem for the Panthers is they have zero run defense. Drew Brees is going to get an early lead and they the Saints will just pound the rock. There is a small chance this turns into a shootout, but I think the Saints win by 10.

Cincinnati (-1) at Jacksonville

Dave: Jacksonville - I'm going to regret this pick by 2:30 today, but the Bengals have a knack for winning the games they shouldn't(Cleveland to open the season, last week against Buffalo) and losing the games they should be winning(They had that Niners game). So, yes, Cincy SHOULD blow the doors off an inept Jags squad but I see flashes in rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. Not quite Cam Newton flashes of brilliance, but flashes of decency. I'm going with a wild hunch here and picking Jacksonville for the kinda-sorta upset.

Gabe: Cincinnati - The Bengals have quietly put together a decent defense, especially passing defense. I don't put too much stock in them beating Buffalo last week, mostly because I think each team's record going into that game was a bit of a fluke. That being said, for Jacksonville, Mark Brunell ain't walkin' through that door. Cincy by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

Dave: Tennessee - The Titans made me look foolish in Week 1 when I picked them to win the AFC South but have rallied back nicely by winning three straight including a W against a Ravens team who, as a Packers fan, is the only team that scares me this season. Kenny Britt is gone and Chris Johnson must have let the Brinks truck that the Titans backed up for him run over his legs but they are still in better shape than the Steelers. All-Pro LB James Harrison All-American Idiot Rashard Mendenhall will be out for this game and Big Ben is hobbled by a bum foot. The Titans weren't going to be able to run the ball even if CJ2K wasn't mailing this season in but I think Matt Hasselbeck still puts up numbers here while the Titans D punishes Ben and that woeful O-line. Titans by 10.

Gabe: Tennessee - I'm going to take a little flyer here. Pittsburgh has gotten geriatric on defense, and that was before James Harrison broke, as one of my Steelers fan co-workers so eloquently put it, "his fuckin' eye-bone." They couldn't stop Houston when the Texans were Andre Johnson-less for three quarters. Tennessee's offense is kind of solid, led by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck. I'll take Tennessee to win by a point, in a small upset.

Oakland (+5) at Houston

Dave: Oakland - I was all-in on Houston until Al Davis died yesterday. This will be an emotional game for the Raiders, who will feel compelled to win one for The Gipper here and really are better than people think anyway. We haven't seen what this Texans offense will be like without Andre Johnson but the thought is they'll struggle to put up big numbers without one of the best WRs in the game. I guess, technically, you could call this game an upset but I think we'll see going forward that these two teams are surprisingly even. Raiders by 6.

Gabe: Houston - The death of Al Davis yesterday makes this game really tough to pick. Who knows how the Raiders team is going to react. The Texans will be missing Andre Johnson. You can't replace the production of the most talented receiver in the league, but the Texans do have a lot of fire power aside from Johnson. I don't see the Raiders rising up and I think the Texans do just enough to cover. Houston by 6.

Arizona (+3) at Minnesota

Dave: Arizona - I'd rather room with Amanda Knox than try to analyze this game. As I said last week, Donovan McNabb is finished. His career has less life than Steve Jobs(too soon?). There is no better time for Minnesota to see what they have in Christian Ponder than this week against a 26th-ranked Cardinals pass D that let Cam Newton put up Madden numbers in Week 1. Jared Allen will put pressure on Kevin Kolb and keep this lead from getting out of hand but, even if Minny can go up big, they can't sustain a lead to save its life. Cards by 7.

Gabe: Arizona - No explanation needed.

N.Y. Jets (+7.5) at New England

Dave: New England - The Patriots' D gives up a ton of yards and, going forward, that will be the Achilles' heel that keeps them out of Indy for the Super Bowl. But the Jets' offense is so anemic, even with All-Pro center Nick Mangold possibly coming back, that they won't be able to exploit that shoddy New England D. There may be some tarnish on that illustrious specter of Bill Belichick but I think he's dying to shut Rex Ryan up. Mark Sanchez is still a bit beat up from getting Goldberg-speared(yes, a wrestling reference) by Haloti Ngata last week and the vaunted Jets run game was last seen on a milk carton. I'll take the Pats by 10.

Gabe: N.Y. Jets - The Jets have a huge weakness on offense, in that they can't figure out what they are. Maybe it has something to do with having a quarterback who studies Details magazine more than his playbook. Is Bill Belichick still a genius? I don't know. But I do know he is still smart enough to expose and exploit weaknesses. That being said, this is still a division game and Rex Ryan is going to have his boys come out swinging. I'll take the Pats to win, but by less than a touchdown.

San Diego (-3.5) at Denver

Dave: San Diego - At this point, I think the Golden State Warriors could put up points on this Broncos D. Look, John Fox, I know you want to be loyal to Kyle Orton and the team's struggles are certainly not all his fault but, I'm telling you right now, you're going to get showered with chants for Tim Tebow by halftime. Just shut these ignorant Bronco fans up. Let Timmy Touchdown get in there and stink up the joint so we can all go on with our lives. And trade Brady Quinn to Miami. That poor guy is sitting on the sidelines for a chance that's never going to come. He's like Phillies fans. Chargers roll in a laugher here. Bolts by 17.

Gabe: San Diego - Denver sucks. They have given up the fifth most points in the NFL. San Diego has one of the most potent offenses in the league. That's a recipe for a big San Diego win.

Green Bay (-5.5) at Atlanta

(Quick rant: A lot of people asked me why I didn't use this site to blast Brett Favre for his comments toward Aaron Rodgers. The reasons are two-fold. First, I was on vacation. Secondly, Favre's comments prove what I like and hate about "The Riverboat Gambler" and what I continue to despise about ESPN. What Favre said wasn't really THAT bad. It was typical of an selfish old codger who is bitter over the fact he's being usurped by his successor. You can't expect someone who has spent an entire career thinking solely of himself to speak glowingly of the man who is making beloved fans forget their once-treasured savior with every pass. That being said, I think part of the allure of Favre is he's a guy's guy. He doesn't speak in cliche like the Manning boys or Tom Brady or so many of his brethren. The problem is, he puts foot to mouth way too often. You can't condemn a guy for taking three years to win his first title with a great cast around him when it took you five years to win your first and you squandered a decade full of chances thereafter with three different teams. As for ESPN, you can't blow a story out of proportion solely to give idiotic retard Skip Bayless something to scream about with Stephen A. Smith on the unwatchable morning show of yours and then post a story about Favre reacting to the story getting overblown. You are the Worldwide Leaders of Hyperbole. You control so much air time on cable networks and your name has become so huge that you feel a constant demand to fill space with half-stories and endless banter. Favre's comments toward Rodgers were mild even in the eyes of someone like me who is constantly looking for a reason to slam Favre. Were they ignorant? Sure, but what do you expect from a Mississippi hick who thinks it's cool to send dick pics to a woman that isn't his wife? Was it ill-advised? Absolutely.....but have you seen Brett Favre throw a football the last two decades? He's the poster child for ill-advised. Look, if I can read the things Favre said and not fly off the handle, neither should you. Stick to doing what you do best, ESPN, like pulling Hank Williams Jr. off of Monday Night Football for dumb comments about President Obama while still allowing Jon Gruden to spew stupidity on a weekly basis. Nice standards you have there in Bristol.)


Dave: Green Bay - I thought this may be a close shootout between two solid offenses......until I read this. The last thing you want is an already pumped-up Aaron Rodgers with something MORE to prove. The Falcons didn't do much to help the pass defense that got torched by A-Rod and company in this very same building in the playoffs back in January. There's nothing to suggest that things will be different this time around. The champs are confident, dangerous and now come into this rematch with a chip on their shoulder. Ryan Grant is back for this one and he'll be looking to put on a show to keep James Starks' breath off his neck for at least one week. Packers by 10.

Gabe: Green Bay - Atlanta is pretty close to going into a tailspin. They could really use a game against a shitty team this week. Unfortunately for them, the Packers are coming to the dirty. The champs are on a roll and will keep it going against the birds. Pack by 10.

Philadelphia (-3) at Buffalo

Dave: Philadelphia - I don't know if the Bills are good, but I know the Niners aren't and the Eagles found a way to let them back in last week and walk out with a W. My thoughts is that Andy Reid, who has as much knowledge of clock management as he does about dieting, doesn't let that happen two straight weeks. Look, I told you people back in July not to believe the hype on this Eagles "dream team" but you rode the bandwagon anyway. Shame on you. Still, the Bills don't have the talent on defense to stop Michael Vick(a pissed off Mike Vick, at that) and I think the Eagles blow out the Bills here as some half-hearted reason to puff out their chests and remove all the vitrial from the fact that both the Eagles and Phillies choked like a first-time throater in the past seven days. Eagles by 21.

Gabe: Philadelphia - The Bills are a paper tiger. Their first two wins of the year were against a terrible Chiefs team and barely beating a Raiders team that had to travel across the country on a short week to play them. Are the Bills great? No. Are they terrible? No. They are somewhere in the middle. Philly needs this win more and I think they'll come in with something to prove. Philly wins by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+1.5) at Indianapolis

Dave: Kansas City - The Chiefs aren't as bad as people think. Don't get me wrong, Kansas City is terrible and the Matt Cassel-Todd Haley brouhaha on the sidelines last week is a harbinger of the last month as well as what's to come the rest of the year, but I think Indy sucks just a little bit more. I'm going to roll the dice on the Chiefs here. KC by 3.

Gabe: Indianapolis - Here it is...this week's edition of "The game Gabe wouldn't watch if it was played in his driveway." I feel sorry for folks in the mid-west who are going to be subjected to this turd. I'll take the Colts to get their first win, by a field goal at home.

Seattle (+10) at N.Y. Giants

Dave: N.Y. Giants - I started a Madden franchise with the Seahawks, just for kicks. After Year 1, I moved them to L.A., drafted Andrew Luck and went 10-6 in a simulated Year 2. What does that have to do with this week's game against Gabe's Jints? Nothing, just hoping some Seattle suit reads this and gets an idea(Sorry Seattle. Like I said last week, I know you've been through enough relocation and I hear you have a hell of a stadium up there in Starbucks land but you can't tell me you wouldn't rather this team move out than watch them the next half-decade, would you?) Giants are going to batter T-Jax and run the ball down Seattle's throat. Meanwhile, we'll all openly question how the blue hell this Seahawks team made the playoffs last year and why he went ape shit over Pete Carroll's NFL return in the first place. Big Blue by 16.

Gabe: N.Y. Giants - In my head, after Philadelphia, the Seattle Seahawks are the Giants biggest rivals. Again in my head and probably my head only. I hate the Seahawks. This all stems from the Giants epic collapse against Seattle in 2005. Since then most of the games in this series have been laughers, including the Giants beating Seattle 41-7, in Seattle, last year. So what about today's game? Seattle has to do the traveling this year. The Giants have the edge in just about every category. I see the Giants making life difficult for Tarvaris Jackson and get nice on offense. It might be an emotional pick, but I'll take the Giants to win by 17.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at San Francisco

Dave: Tampa Bay - Have I mentioned at all this last month that I'm all-in on Josh Freeman and the Bucs(pause) this year? I'm not buying the career resurrection of Alex Smith because he was able to pull a comeback out of his ass last week against one of the most overrated coaches and teams in the sport's history. I like Tampa, even on short rest and having to travel across country for this one, but I see it being close with some classic J-Fresh fourth quarter heroics. Bucs by 6.

Gabe: Tampa Bay - Two young teams, one on the come up, one struggling. Tampa Bay has to travel a long way on a short week, which to me has to be the reason they are an underdog. I'll take the Bucs in a small upset special.

Chicago (+5.5) at Detroit

Dave: Detroit - I'm either a genius or dead-set on blowing this five-game lead over Gabe in one shot. Here's what we know about Detroit. They can't really run the ball. They can play from behind, no matter the team or the deficit. Their defense is more bend-but-don't-break than the second coming of the '85 Bears and....oh yeah, NOBODY CAN STOP CALVIN JOHNSON! On top of that, the only thing standing between Ndomukong Suh plowing Jay Cutler-Cavallari into the basement of Ford Field is a Bears' offensive line more embarrassing than Nancy Grace farting on Dancing With The Stars(Yes, folks, two straight weeks of "Nancy Grace on DWTS" references. And I don't even watch the show. Thank you, TMZ). Any primetime jitters by these young Lions will be offset by by JCC miscues. Jim Schwartz knows how to bring constant pressure and, with Nick Fairley making his debut, the story of Monday Night will be as much about the beating JCC is going to take as it will be about Detroit going 5-0. Lions by 13.

Gabe: Chicago - Detroit has been living dangerously. Two huge comeback wins in a row is not how you want to win. Add that to the pressure of playing their first Monday night game since the city was churning out Model T's. (The timeline in that last sentence may be exaggerated.) Who knows how Detroit will react. I think there has been too much emotion surrounding this team. Chicago is a veteran team that will handle their business. I don't know if Chicago wins, but it will be close...a field goal either way.

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