Sunday, October 16, 2011

Week 6 Picks

Last week, Dave got cute with his picks which helped push his lead over Gabe four more games. That brings Il Padrone's magic number to nine games over Pitbull Jr on the season. As we've seen in years past, that's not exactly an insurmountable lead.

On to the Week 6 picks......

LAST WEEK

Dave: 7-6
Gabe: 3-10


SEASON

Dave: 39-33-5
Gabe: 30-42-5

VS.
Panthers (+4) at Falcons

Dave: Panthers - I went back and forth on this for a while. Given what I've seen from both teams so far, I can't really see how the Falcons piss-poor D contains Cam Newton(which is something I wasn't expecting to be saying in Week 6 of Cam-Cam's rookie year) and Julio Jones being out means the Panthers secondary and hone in an already hobbled Roddy White. The Eagles are the season's biggest disappointment, without question, but the Falcons aren't that far behind and, while losses at the Georgia Dome are rare for Atlanta(unless you're the Packers), I'm calling for Carolina to pull off the upset or, at the very least, keep it close(How's that for a run-on sentence, English teachers!?).

Gabe: Panthers - Julio Jones is out, so like Dave said, the Panthers are going to be able to hone in on the other weapons the Falcons have. I'm not sure the Panthers win either, but Cam Newton has a way of keeping things close. A late field goal one way or the other decides the game.

Rams (+14.5) at Packers


Dave: Rams - Packers coach Mike McCarthy made it a point for this Packers team to remember a moment from 2009 when it faced a winless team coming off a bye. That team was woefully bad Tampa Bay Bucs and they pulled off the upset of Green Bay at The New Sombrero. These '11 Rams are better than those '09 Bucs(I think). I'm not saying St. Louis is going to beat the champs in Lambeau, but with Green Bay missing both starting offensive tackles against a Rams team with a good pass rush, I think Green Bay keeps the W under two touchdowns. Packers by 13.

Gabe: Packers - The Rams do have a good pass rush, but Aaron Rodgers employs the perfect combination of mobility, quick release, and good decision making. The Packers offense is so in sync right now it's scary. I think they open up a can and win by 17.

Colts (+6.5) at Bengals

Dave: Bengals - A win here makes Cincy the worst 4-2 team in the history of the NFL, but I see nothing out of this Colts team that doesn't scream out "Suck for Luck". This game is going to be harder to watch than a Whoopi Goldberg sex tape, but I think the Bengals D batters the Colts around and Andy Dalton finds A.J Green for a couple of scores. Bengals by 10.

Gabe: Colts - Here it is...the game I wouldn't watch if it were being played in my driveway. This game is going to be hideous. I don't think the Colts are going to win, but no way the Bengals win by 7. This will be a field goal either way.

Niners (+2.5) at Lions

Dave: Lions - Who would have thought this would be the Game of the Week? After last week's trouncing of the Bucs, I'm thinking maybe(just maybe) San Francisco isn't some flash in the pan. They play good enough defense and the offense, while not spectacular, does just enough thanks to the improvements made by head coach Jim Harbaugh. Still, I have a hard time talking myself into a scenario where Alex Smith walks into Motown and is able to tame the Lions in front of a deafening crowd at Ford Field. I have an even harder time picturing Carlos Rogers stopping Calvin Johnson. The Niners have true upset potential here but I just don't see their offense stacking up with Detroit's. The Lions: 6-0? The world must really be ending soon. Lions by 6.

Gabe: Lions - The Niners showed something last week, but I don't see them being able to stop the Lions offense at all. It sounds funny, but I predict the Lions will be 6-0 by the end of today and somewhere Barry Sanders will shed a single tear. Lions by 7.

Bills (+3) at Giants

Dave: Bills - Not since the Kim Kardashian-Ray J tape have I see a suck job quite like the one performed by Gabe's Jints last week against Seattle. It's like Eli Manning grows more and more uncomfortable with the idea of Tony Romo being more overrated than him and finds a way to be absolutely atrocious in games he should dominate. The Bills are the better team here and are only getting points because they are on the road, but anyone who has been to the new Giants Stadium can tell you that the new digs are hardly a huge home advantage for Big Blue. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick carves up New York while Eli Manning makes at least four or five boneheaded throws that causes drunk New Yorkers to boo him like he's Pedro Martinez. Bills by 6.

Gabe: Giants - Both of these teams are a mystery and anyone who picked the Giants to win last week (yours truly included) should have known not to trust them when they are a double digit favorite. That being said, who knows how this game is going to go. I'll take the Giants because they are at home and need to redeem themselves.

Jaguars (+13) at Steelers

Dave: Steelers - David Garrard must count his blessings every day for being spared the horror of having to quarterback this Jaguars team. Outside of MoJo D and Blaine Gabbert's hair, this team is one huge steaming pile of cow excrement. I'm not willing to admit I'm wrong on Pittsburgh even with them stomping out Tennessee last week. Granted, Pittsburgh will stomp out Jacksonville today and everyone will jump back on the bandwagon but I still think this team is worse than it's soon-to-be 4-2 record(I mean, Cincy's 4-2, too, and they're putrid). I'm calling shutout here as Ben throws for another handful of scores. Steelers by 20.

Gabe: Steelers - The Jaguars best work this season was MoJo D appearing in Ruxin's Shiva Bowl Shuffle video on The League. They stink. The Steelers are going to roll.

Eagles (-2.5) at Redskins

Dave: Redskins - I think oddsmakers fuel my dislike for the Eagles. What exactly have we seen from Philly this season to make us think they should be favored on the road against a better-than-expected Redskins team? They can't stop the run and they're playing a team whose coach made household names out of bums like Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. The blueprint to beat Philly has been laid out. Knock around Mike Vick, and offset their talented secondary by relying on running the ball down the throats of a meager front seven. I don't know whether Washington is good or not and we all saw what happened the last time these two met in this building, but this is a different Eagles team than the one that throttled the 'Skins last year in D.C. By different, I mean crappier. I'm taking the home team here. 'Skins by 6.

Gabe: Redskins - I can't understand why Philly is a favorite in this game. The Eagles can't beat a cold, much less a division opponent on the road. The formula has been established...batter Vick until they have bring in Kafka and have a warm body tote the rock. Washington will have no problem doing that. Redskins by at least a touchdown.

Browns (+7) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - The Browns' sleeper buzz quiets to a whisper with every passing week. Colt McCoy hasn't proven to be the goods in his second year and this team is STILL looking for a dependable option on offense beyond Peyton Hillis. The Raiders, meanwhile, are playing with the spirit of Al Davis(which willed them to a W over notorious fourth-quarter choke artist Houston last week) and I think they'll hit Cleveland with a heavy dose of Run DMC in front of the home crowd. Just win, baby. Raiders by 10.

Gabe: Raiders - The Raiders are tough and are playing lights out right now. Cleveland seems to be spinning their wheels, as they always do. I'll take the Raiders at by home by 9.

Texans (+7) at Ravens


Dave: Ravens - That sound you hear is the air coming out of Houston's tires. With Mario Williams out for the season and Andre Johnson to miss a couple more weeks, the Texans are going to lose quite a bit of ground to Tennessee for the South crown. Those two losses are especially going to hurt this week against a Ravens team coming off a bye(which means they get Lee Evans a little bit healthier and rookie Torrey Smith a bit more acquainted with the offense) and have added a deep passing game to complement it's all-Ray Rice-all-the-time primary option. Matt Schaub looks confused without his top target out there and now he'll be confused and beat up after the Ravens D gets in his face. Ravens by 14.

Gabe: Ravens - Houston is minus their best player on both sides of the ball. The WR tandem of Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones wouldn't scare the University of Maryland, much less the Ravens. I think the Ravens' D clamps down on Houston and perhaps scores a TD of their own. The Texans would have to show some real mental toughness to win this game. That ain't happenin'. Ravens by 10.

Cowboys (+6.5) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - Very easy call here. Tom Brady vs. one of the worst secondaries in the NFL? Where do I sign up for that action? I see Brady to Welker happening early and often, but there are a couple of plusses for Cowboys fans. One, you get Miles Austin back. Two, the Pats have no pass rush, so you don't have to worry about blaming the offensive line when Tony Romo throws another barrage of back-breaking interceptions. Patriots win this one going away while I try to figure out how a team that plays its home games on the East Coast in Boston gets the luxury of 4 p.m. starts every week. Pats by 17.

Gabe: Patriots
- If I hadn't taken the Pats last week in my two 'Eliminator' challenges I'd give them a serious look this week. (Sorry to the 60% of entrants who chose my Giants. It's called fading the public.) The Cowboys won't have to worry about throwing the ball when they have a 20+ lead this week. The Pats had a tough time last week, but Tom Terrific will carve the Cowboys' secondary. Patriots by 9.

Saints (-6) at Bucs

Dave: Saints - Words can't describe how bad these Bucs played last week so I won't even try to use any. Making matters worse for Josh Freeman and company is having to go from being torched by Alex Smith to being torched by Drew Brees. Maybe a soft Saints D helps J-Fresh get off the snide here but I can't help but see the Saints go marching into Tampa and winning by double digits. Saints by 13.

Gabe: Saints - There is that old cliched sports idea of the hangover. The Bucs lost this game last week. Drew Brees and the Saints offense are going to lose their collective mind on the Bucs. This game does have the potential to become a shoot-out, but I'll take Drew Brees to nail it down late. Saints by 9.

Vikings (+3) at Bears

Dave: Bears - After a string of entertaining Sunday night games, I'm going out on a limb here and say this one will not follow suit. In one corner, you have washed up California Raisin Donovan McNabb. In the other, you have Sgt. Sulk Jay Cutler. Beyond a few Adrian Peterson runs, how will this be worth watching? I think we see a lot of the Jared Allen "rodeo cowboy" dance after he sacks Jay Cutler on nearly every play. I think we see another Devin Hester punt return TD because Leslie Frazier strikes me as someone dumb enough to kick to him, and I think we'll all change the channel after the smoking-hot Faith Hill intro. Bears by 9.

Gabe: Vikings
- Dave kind of made my case for me. Jared Allen gets to Jay Cutler. A.P. gets nice. I say they kick away from Hester. That means Matt Forte is going to have to beat the Vikes. I don't see that happening. Minny by a touchdown in a slight upset.

Dolphins (+7.5) at Jets
Dave: Jets - Another Monday Night snoozefest. Here I am, thinking that Jon Gruden made watching football on Monday nights intolerable. Now, we get the dreadfulness of Jon Gruden's obvious insights and stupid jokes combined with some bad matchups. Who did YOU piss off in the league offices, ESPN? Here's all you need to know about how bad the Dolphins are: David Garrard, unemployed since late August, was called to see if he'd like to come in to QB for the Dolphins after Chad Henne went down and Garrard said "Thanks, but no thanks." This is a man who spent the last few years on a horrid Jags team and he pretty much said "I'd rather sit on my recliner, eating Hagen Daz ice cream and ballooning up like Oliver Miller, then play for your lowly franchise". Matt Moore gets the start but the Jets dominate here. Jets by 17.

Gabe: Jets - Miami is terrible and I don't think Rex is going to let his boys lose two division games in a row, especially at home on Monday night. I think the Jets embarrass the 'Phins. Jets by at least 10.

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