Week 17 Picks

In an attempt to preserve his lead and end the 2011 regular season with his third straight crown, Gabe is resting his starters this week. Translation: Gabe is on vacation in Italy and, thus, unable to send in his picks for Week 17.

So Dave is going to fly solo for the final week of the season and, despite temptation to rule this a forfeit and give himself the regular season title, will instead grace us with his take on this week's somewhat meaningless games.

Lions (-6.5) at Packers

Dave: Lions - A pointless game for the Packers here as they've already locked down the top seed in the NFC and homefield advantage. However, don't think Green Bay wouldn't love to stick it to Detroit and send a message to the rest of the league by messing around and putting a whooping on the Lions with their B team. Two things you should have learned from last year, the Packers are surprisingly deep and Matt Flynn is a capable starter. How deflating would it be for Detroit to go into the playoffs as a 6 seed, having to go on the road to New Orleans or San Fran, having just lost on the road to a backup squad? That's why I think Detroit is going to come out, guns blazing, at first, build an early lead and dare Flynn to make a comeback. My gut says this one will be close but my heart says the Lions roll here. Lions by 10.

Niners (-11) at Rams

Dave: Niners - The Niners are trying to keep their scant hopes at the 2 seed alive while St. Louis has an outside shot at the #1 pick with an L here and a Indy W over Jacksonville. So both teams have something to gain from a San Fran win here(though SF also needs a Panthers win over the Saints). The Rams don't have much fight left in them, especially on offense, with Sam Bradford out and Steven Jackson wearing down. The Niners, much like the Steelers did last week, are going to smother Nellyville on O and end the Steve Spagnuolo era with a second straight shutout. Niners by 17.

Jets (+3) at Dolphins

Dave: Dolphins - I almost feel like Rex Ryan should be canned after this one. Brandon Jacobs was right: Rex Ryan does more hurt than good with all these outlandish preseason proclamations. Three straight years Rex has predicted the Jets are going all the way. Three years, they fell flat. This year, they need a miracle just to make the playoffs. Look, Rex Ryan is a hell of a defensive strategist but to say he's been underwhelming as the top man in the Big Apple is like saying Kevin James movies are unamusing. We can point fingers at Mark Sanchez taking a step back or Shonn Greene not really showing up or LT showing his age but the success of this team starts at the top as does the reason behind its failure. The Jets are playing desperate today, which is why I think they'll end their season with a loss to a suddenly-decent Miami team, even with Reggie Bush out. Dolphins pick off Sanchez three times, Jets lose by 10.

Bears (+2) at Vikings

Dave: Vikings - I'm not even going to waste too much space on this game except to say that Minnesota is going to win and somebody, somewhere is going to overspend on Joe Webb this offseason thinking he's a competent NFL QB. He's not. Vikes by 6.

Bills (+10) at Patriots

Dave: Patriots - A couple things to consider: the Patriots need a win here to lock down the #1 seed in the AFC, New England lost to Buffalo(snapping a 15-game win streak over the Bills) in Week 3, Buffalo hasn't won in New England since....well, forever, and Tom Brady spent the week leading up to this game having his shoulder X-rayed. What does all that mean? That the Patriots are going to play chess with Bills rather than Battleship. Having seen Wes Welker blow out his knee going too hard in a meaningless Week 17 game in years past, the Pats aren't going to get too extra in this one. I think they do just enough to exact revenge for the early-season loss and then Ryan Mallett comes in and the Pats play keep away the rest of the game. Pats by 14.

Panthers (+7) at Saints

Dave: Panthers - A win here by New Orleans would obviously be beneficial because, who doesn't want a first round bye? That being said, barring a miracle, the Saints road to the Super Bowl will still mean they have to leave the comfy confines of the Superdome and try to outgun the Packers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on a blistering cold January afternoon. Drew Brees already has the single-season passing yards record so there's less of a need for him to air it out and it's not like New Orleans has a run game to use as an alternative. The Panthers, meanwhile, want to end the season right and Cam Newton wants to put the finishing touches on what HAS to be a Rookie of the Year-type season. I think this becomes a shootout early but the Saints bow out towards the end as they try not to risk injury trying to take down the 240lb Newton on a fast track in New Orleans. Panthers pull off the upset and the Niners nab the 2 seed. Panthers by 3.

Redskins (+7) at Eagles

Dave: Eagles - It pains me that a win here probably lets Andy Reid live for another year. The Eagles were a colossal disappointment and that starts with the head coach. Reid had to go this year, and he still might, but the Eagles will give him the benefit of the doubt after he gets to 8-8 with a win over another team that should can its coach: the Washington Redskins(Don't worry, Skins fans, you're only 4 months away from Dan Snyder trading half his draft the next two years to move up and get RG3).

Colts (+3) at Jaguars

Dave: Colts - Some will look at the Colts fighting hard to avoid getting the top pick to draft Andrew Luck as noble and a gesture of good faith to their injured franchise signal caller Peyton Manning. I call it stupid. Manning will be 36 next year and will be making $28 million to try to rebound from a neck injury that has killed his 2011 season with a 2012 Colts team that just looks putrid. The Colts were never going to get another opportunity to get an heir apparent like Luck. At the very least, they could have parlayed the top pick into a Hershel Walker-type deal that set them up well for years going forward. Instead, pride will have picking 2nd and Jim Caldwell doing pregame shows for CBS. The Jags are stuck, too. They could put up a fight and let their division rivals end up with the top pick or continue to lay down and get beat by a Colts team that didn't have a win to their name a month ago. Either way, this is as unwatchable as a Tyler Perry sitcom. Colts by 6.

Titans (-1) at Texans

Dave: Titans - If you're Baltimore or Pittsburgh or Cincinnati or whoever ends up facing Houston in the first round, how are you not salivating at the chance to beat on this Texans team? In fitting Texans fashion, the year they finally look like they shed the underachiever label and finally make the playoffs, the wheels fall off and they'll probably be one and done. As for this week against Tennessee, history suggests that if Houston couldn't put up a fight against Indy, they won't be much against a significantly better Titans team. Titans by 7.

Bucs (+9.5) at Falcons

Dave: Falcons - Boy, were we wrong about these Bucs. If there's a saving grace for Tampa Bay this week, it's that they always give Atlanta fits(including this season, where the Bucs have a W over Atlanta already) and the Falcons are going to be on cruise control since they are already in the playoffs. Granted, a win here helps Atlanta avoid the 6 seed but the Dirty Birds have to go on the road regardless and facing either New Orleans or San Fran or New York or Dallas isn't really going to matter in terms of one being easier than the other. I say the Bucs continue to quit on soon-to-be fired head coach Raheem Morris and lay another egg against the Falcons. Atlanta by 14.

Ravens (-2) at Bengals

Dave: Bengals - The Ravens have a lot at stake here because, despite winning in Pittsburgh a month ago, we know Baltimore doesn't want to be subjected to yet another Steelers-Ravens playoff clash at Heinz Field. A win here over Cincy gives Baltimore the AFC North crown and a potential shot at the 1 seed. The problem with that is that Baltimore sucks on the road and the one thing they do well, run the ball, is the one thing the Bengals' D can stop. That means this game is Joe Flacco's hands to go out and win. Last week, I said Flacco was this generation's Eli: an underwhelming, emotionless drone who needed a big postseason run to get the monkey off his back. For Flacco, that run needs to start today in Cincinnati against a battered Bengals secondary. The Ravens barely beat the Bengals earlier in the season without A.J. Green. Now, Green is back and somewhat healthy and, if this is a shootout, I'll take the desperate Bengals over the desperate Ravens by 3.

Steelers (-7) at Browns

Dave: Steelers - A few things you should know since we know you won't give a rat's piss about this game unless you're a diehard Steelers fan like my friend Sean Kerin and need a reason to get drunk and yell obscenities on New Years(You know, besides the normal reasons): 1. The Browns are awful. 2. Big Ben doens't lose in Ohio. His record in his home state is astonishing. I'm almost 100% sure he could kill two men in front of a police station in Findley and get off with a misdemeanor. 3. Colt McCoy isn't the answer for Cleveland but he was a nice story. 4. The Browns have two first round picks in the 2012 Draft and we know Mike Holmgren loves to move up(see the Matt Hasselbeck trade in 2000 when The Walrus was running things in Seattle) 5. The Rams will probably be picking first and don't need a QB. You get where I'm going with this? Steelers have a shot at the division title and homefield so I fully expect them to blow out the Browns but, given what Cleveland did to Big Ben in the first game, I fully expect Big Ben to break a wrist or sprain a knee or get knocked out with a concussion leading to two weeks of "Is Big Ben gonna play?" and "How tough is Big Ben?" stories all week. Steelers by 10.

Chiefs (+2) at Broncos

Dave: Broncos - Look, God isn't going to allow the NFL postseason to be deprived of Tim Tebow. How else do you explain the Chiefs mysteriously putting their leading rusher, Jackie Battle, on the IR midway through the week leading up to this game? Now, this Chiefs-Broncos tilt is being billed as a revenge match for Kyle Orton, who was unceremoniously benched for Touchdown Jesus in Week 5 and subsequently released a few weeks later where he ended up with the Chiefs. Kansas City plays excellent defense so Tebow isn't going to be able to run all over the Chiefs but the Chiefs are going to have to muster some offense and the Broncos defense is pretty good as well. I see Von Miller getting to Orton a couple times, Orton throwing a couple picks and this game ending with a Tebow TD run that makes the Broncos fans go ape shit and shoot Joey Porter in the asscheeks again. Broncos by 6.

Chargers (+3) at Raiders

Dave: Raiders - The Raiders shot at the 6 seed, assuming they don't win the West, is actually rather possible(meaning we get a postseason where three of your 6 starting QB's are T.J. Yates, Carson Palmer and Tim Tebow.......enjoy!). The Raiders need a win here plus a Bengals loss to Baltimore(possible) with either a Jets win over Miami(also possible) or a Houston win over Tennessee(the least likely of the three). The most motivating factor for me is that a Raiders win ends the Norv Turner era for San Diego and potentially starts the Jon Gruden era for the Bolts. No more underwhelming Chargers teams AND Gruden out of the MNF booth? 2012 is starting out great already! The Chargers play their best games in these last two months so San Diego could play spoiler here, but my heart says Oakland has one last college try left in them. Raiders by 6.

Seahawks (+3) at Cardinals

Dave: Seahawks - If you're running either of these teams next year, what do you do at QB next year? If you're Arizona, you signed Kevin Kolb to a big contract in the offseason but John Skelton as kept you out of the basement all season. Do you trade Kolb again? Do you trade Skelton? Otherwise, how else do you justify Kolb starting next year? As for Seattle, T-Jax hasn't been THAT bad this year, right? He also hasn't been THAT good. Do you give him one more year and wait til next year to draft a QB like Pete Carroll's prized pupil Matt Barkley? Or do you take a gamble on a promising new starter like Matt Flynn or even....yikes, Joe Webb? Either way, this game is just jockeying for position in the draft and it's more of a "Let's see what we have to fix in the offseason" game than a game of consequence. Seahawks by 6.

Cowboys (+3) at Giants

Dave: Giants - Oh man! Gabe is going to be somewhere in Italy, sipping grappo, rocking some hi-top Filas while he tries not to choke on his spaghetti aioli. You had to figure, all season, the NFC East title was going to come down to this. The only thing standing between the Giants and the postseason is the Giants. The Cowboys are far too beat up and, even when healthy, they choke like a first time throater in high-pressure situations. The only thing New York has to do is try to be less shitty than Dallas. The Giants whooped on the Cowboys a couple weeks ago in Dallas, so you'd like to think that they'd be able to clinch the East at home against a Cowboys team with no DeMarco Murray and a battered Tony Romo. Either way, the winner of this game is catching an L in Round 1, which means Gabe will be spending the offseason drinking all the Pinot Grigio he stuffed in his new Fendi manpurse while he tries to talk himself into the 2012 Mets and listens to his Andrea Bocelli Christmas CD on a continous loop. Poor fella. Giants by 10.