Week 4 Picks

Last week: 9-6-1

(Note: Completely forgot to post the Packers-Bucs game last week but I had the Bucs so that's an L.)

Season: 21-26-1

Dolphins (+3.5) over Bengals

The Bengals are 1-2 with their lone victory coming last week against the lowly Jets. They’ve also allowed 15 sacks through three games, tied with Washington for most in the league. Even at home on a short week against a banged up Dolphins team, Cincinnati opening up as favorites is a bit preposterous. If Cincy can keep Joe Burrow upright, there’s some shootout potential here but, even at less than 100 percent, I expect Tua & company to take care of business.

Vikings (-3.5) over Saints

The NFL’s ongoing campaign to make other countries hate football continues with an epic clash between Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton in London. Dalton is filling in for the injured Jameis Winston and, if that isn’t enough to make you lose faith in the Saints’ chances, New Orleans will also be without top weapons Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Vikings get Dalvin Cook back after he left last week with a shoulder injury and there’s no reason to believe they won’t cruise here.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Eagles

The Jaguars and Eagles are arguably two of the most impressive teams through three weeks of the season. Jacksonville recovered from an opening week hiccup against Washington to throttle the Colts and Chargers in the last two games while Philadelphia is the last remaining undefeated team at 3-0. Philly’s D has been leaky enough this season that Jacksonville can at least keep it close. Eagles win. Jags cover.

Bills (-3) over Ravens

Lamar Jackson is my MVP through three weeks as he’s carried the Ravens with his arm and legs but I like Buffalo’s chances of momentarily slowing Jackson down more than Baltimore’s chances of doing the same to Josh Allen. Bills by a score.

Titans (+3.5) over Colts

Everything had to go wrong for the Chiefs last week so the Colts could get their first win. The Titans are equally inept but they’re getting the points so I like them as the lesser of two evils.

Giants (-2.5) over Bears

One of these teams will walk out 3-1, which is a tragedy. Justin Fields is allegedly unhappy in Chicago, and why wouldn’t he be? His leading receiver has 77 yards in three games (Equanimeous St. Brown). Things aren’t much better for Big Blue as injuries have decimated the receiving core again. Saquon Barkley is still healthy though, so Giants by a field goal.

Cowboys (-3) over Commanders

After getting beat down in his return to Philly last week, Carson Wentz now gets to be chased around Dallas by the league’s fiercest pass rush. Cowboys haven’t lost since Cooper Rush took over and that streak won’t end here.

Chargers (-6) over Texans

The injury bug may have once again ruined the Chargers’ championship hopes but there’s still enough talent to handle a rebuilding Texans team still looking for its first win.

Falcons (+1) over Browns

Even in a rebuilding year, the Falcons haven’t been awful. A narrow loss to New Orleans in Week 1, a near-comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 2 and a W over the Seahawks last week. Now, they get the Browns sans Myles Garrett. If Marcus Mariota continues to get Drake London and Kyle Pitts involved, I like Atlanta with the upset.

Seahawks (+3.5) over Lions

I liked Detroit to win this earlier in the week but no D’Andre Swift, no Amon-Ra St. Brown or DJ Chark and top pick Aiden Hutchinson on a milk carton puts a damper on things. The Lions could still pull this one out but it’ll be too close to like them by more than a field goal.

Jets (+3.5) over Steelers

The MILF Hunter is back and he gets a showdown with Mitch Trubisky for his 2022 debut. Zach Wilson will have some rust to shake off but the Steelers’ offense will sputter enough under Mistake Makin’ Mitch to buy the Jets some time. Jets with the “upset”.

Cardinals (+1) over Panthers

CMC possibly sitting this one out would be the cherry on an awful football Sunday. Kyler works his magic to get dub here.

Patriots (+9.5) over Packers

No Mac Jones or Jakobi Meyers for the Pats but the Packers’ offense isn’t good enough to pick them to win by double-digits against anyone, even the badly wounded. Packers by a score in another defensive struggle.

Raiders (-3) over Broncos

Bigger regret: Davante Adams leaving Green Bay for the league’s only 0-3 team or the Broncos paying $245 million for a QB with two touchdowns in three games? If Las Vegas is going to get back on track, you would think it would be against a toothless Denver squad.

Chiefs (+1) over Bucs

45-year-old Tom Brady is starting to show his age and Hurricane Ian still looms around Florida. The Bucs struggled to find the end zone against the Packers last week and now have the tall task of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs team cheated out of a victory last week. Yikes.

Rams (+1.5) over Niners

I don’t know how the Niners are favored in this one after last week’s stinkfest against Denver but here we are. Rams make oddsmakers put respect on their name on national television by blowing out San Fran.

Week 3 Picks

Last week 8-8

Season: 12-20

Browns (-4.5) over Steelers

After giving us Josh Allen vs Matt Stafford and Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert in back-to-back weeks, the NFL brings the Thursday Night Football momentum to a screeching halt with a battle between two bottom-five starting QBs, Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett. It’s hard to get excited about Pittsburgh until they make the switch to Kenny Pickett at QB and/or get TJ Watt back. Cleveland with the home edge by a score.

Texans (+3) over Bears

I don’t know if tying with the Colts and narrowly losing to the Broncos is a flex but I expect the Texans to remain competitive enough with a Bears team still finding its footing offensively to cover.

Raiders (-2.5) over Titans

The Raiders are better than their 0-2 record. The Titans are not.

Chiefs (-5.5) over Colts

The bright side for the Colts is, after this, they get Tennessee at home, @Denver, a rematch with the Jags at home and then Tennessee again. Frank Reich doesn’t emerge .500 or better from that stretch, it’s over for him.

Dolphins (+4.5) over Bills

Riding a 2-0 start and a 6 TD game from Tua, the Dolphins have enough going for them to keep it close at home against the best team in the AFC. Bills by a field goal.

Lions (+5) over Vikings

The Lions have quietly scored 71 points in the first two games and Jared Goff is playing the best football of his pro career. Detroit with the upset.

Ravens (-2.5) over Patriots

New England doesn’t have enough on O to keep up with Lamar Jackson or enough on D to stop him. Ravens win it going away.

Jets (+6) over Bengals

Cincy is 0-2 vs Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush. Joe Flacco is better than both of those guys and this Jets team is feisty. Until the Bengals can protect Joe Burrow, it’s hard to see them covering anything over a three-point spread.

Eagles (-6.5) over Commanders

Carson Wentz is having a career resurgence after being thrown out of Philly and Indy in back to back seasons, but the Eagles are too well-rounded to lose to a Commanders team that could easily be 0-2 right now.

Saints (-2.5) over Panthers

Despite their offensive weaponry, the Saints haven’t been much to write home about but this Panthers team finds ways to lose close games.

Jaguars (+3) over Chargers

With potentially no Justin Herbert suiting up for the Chargers and the rest of the division in tough games, this is a golden opportunity for the Jags to add to their AFC South lead.

Rams (-3.5) over Cardinals

Rams have too much on both sides of the ball to fall prey to the Kyler Murray magic show.

Falcons (+1) over Seahawks

This could either way but hopefully it ends with DK Metcalf and Kyle Pitts finds their respective ways off the milk carton.

Niners (-1.5) over Broncos

The $245 million Denver gave Russell Wilson might go down as the worst contract in the history of football.

Cowboys (+1) over Giants

Don’t let the stench of a Daniel Jones-Cooper Rush prime time showdown distract you from the star power of Micah Parsons and finally getting to see what Giants rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux can do.

Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was particularly dreadful but, as a glutton for punishment, I'm in this for the long haul.

Some of you buried me after Week 1. Bury me again. I don’t care. I’m back to work.

Last week: 4-12
Season: 4-12

Chiefs (-4) over Chargers

Patrick Mahomes really misses Tyreek Hill, huh? While other quarterbacks struggled without their dearly departed top targets, Mahomes carved up an overwhelmed Cardinals defense to the tune of 360 yards and five touchdowns. This time around, he gets Justin Herbert and the Chargers at home on a short week. Herbert (270 yards, 3 TDs in Week 1) is better equipped to go throw for throw with Mahomes than Kyler Murray was but the loss of Keenan Allen takes a trusted weapon out of the arsenal. LA’s best hope is their two dynamic pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, who combined for 4.5 sacks against Las Vegas, disrupting the Chiefs’ passing game. This could go down to the wire but Mahomes has the momentum and the homefield advantage. KC by a score.

Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens

The Dolphins and Ravens were one of the few teams with decisive Week 1 wins. It helped that they were up against the Patriots and Jets, respectively. Lamar Jackson sputtered out the gate last week before finding his groove in the second half against a Jets defense that was on the field for too long. He’ll face a tougher test this time around against a Miami team that made Mac Jones’ life miserable last week. Meanwhile, after giving up 309 yards (most of it in garbage time) to old pal Joe Flacco, Baltimore’s D will be tasked with slowing down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This one will be close but Miami takes it. 

 

Giants (-2) over Panthers 

The skids were greased for Baker Mayfield to get his revenge against his old team and prove his detractors wrong last week. Instead, Mayfield completed less than 60 percent of his passes and took an L from a Jacoby Brissett-led Browns team. Giants QB Daniel Jones isn’t much better than Brissett but he and a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley should be enough to hold off Carolina at home. 

 

Bucs (-2.5) over Saints

Injuries to both offenses almost assures this will be a low-scoring affair. The Bucs could potentially be without two more starters on the offensive line, tackles Donovan Smith (doubtful) and Tristan Wirfs (questionable), while RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones and Mike Evans are all banged up. 45-year-old Tom Brady is also starting to show his age, as well. For New Orleans, RB Alvin Kamara will sit while QB Jameis Winston will play with a sore back. It’s possible the Saints defense takes advantage of Tampa Bay’s patchwork o-line to  pull off the upset but I think Brady has enough tricks up his sleeve to win by a FG. 

Jets (+6.5) over Browns 

The Jets defense looked feisty for a good portion of their clash against Baltimore before Lamar Jackson eventually took over. Jacoby Brissett is a long way from being Lamar Jackson and expecting the Browns to win by at least a touchdown seems a bit ambitious. At the very least, New York keeps this one close but it wouldn’t be a shock if they win outright. 

Colts (+3) over Jaguars

This feels like a trap. The Jags were a couple missed plays from stealing a win from the Commanders and now get a Colts team that had to fight just to tie with the Texans. Indy will also be without top wideout Michael Pittman, which makes things even more complicated. The Colts starting out winless by failing to beat two of the worst teams from last season in back-to-back weeks would be a nightmare, which is why I think they’ll desperately lean on RB Jonathan Taylor to cover. 

 

Steelers (+2.5) over Patriots

The Steelers will miss TJ Watt as he nurses a torn pec but they still survived Cincinnati last week without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Assuming they don’t lose anyone else, the Steelers have enough talent to put away the suddenly lowly Patriots. 

Lions (-1.5) over Commanders 

Wait, is Carson Wentz good again? Time will tell. After notching 313 yards and four scores against the Jaguars, Wentz gets a slightly tougher challenge against a Lions team that refused to give up against Philly last week. Detroit looks like it’s buying into Dan Campbell’s penchant for grit and that non-stop effort gives them the edge over Washington.

Rams (-10) over Falcons

The Rams had 10 days to prepare for a Falcons team that — stop me if you heard this before — blew a fourth quarter lead last week. Double-digit spreads are a tough pull to swallow but Los Angeles is looking to get back on track after being embarrassed in the season opener and beating up on a rebuilding Falcons team is the way to do it. 

 

Seahawks (+9) over Niners

The jury is out as to whether Seattle is good or Denver was that bad but nearly double-digit underdogs to a Niners team that lost to the lowly Bears in a monsoon is criminal. Geno Smith will be hard-pressed to repeat starting out 14-for-14 like he did in the win over the Broncos but out-dueling a Trey Lance-led offense playing without Eli Mitchell and George Kittle is certainly in his purviews. 

 

Texans (+10) over Broncos

Another huge spread that doesn’t make spend. Denver is playing on a short week and coming off a road loss to the Seahawks. How are they 10-points better than a Texans squad that held off the Colts? It’s possible the Broncos learned from their mistakes and bounce back but I need to see more before I trust them as overwhelming favorites against anyone. 

 

Bengals (-7) over Cowboys

Five words for you: Cowboys starting quarterback Cooper Rush.

Bengals by a lot. 

Raiders (-5) over Cardinals

A toothless Cardinals defense that was decimated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week is the perfect remedy for a Raiders offense that hasn’t reached its full potential yet. Until Kyler Murray gets some of his weapons back, it’s hard to envision him keeping up with any of his colleagues, let alone Derek Carr and Las Vegas’ three-headed monster. 

Packers (-10) over Bears

It’s important not to panic after Green Bay’s disappointing showing last week against Minnesota. The Packers got blown out in their opener last year and still went on to finish tied for the league’s best regular season record. Aaron Rodgers’ history of owning the Bears is well-stated and, while trusting this banged up offense to win by double digits is risky, this is the kind of game the Packers need to regain their confidence. 

 

Bills (-10) over Titans 

A few things you should know:

• Josh Allen lit up the defending Super Bowl champions for 353 total yards and four touchdowns. 
• Allen and the Bills had 10 days to prepare for the Titans.
• The Titans lost to the Giants at home seven days ago. 
• Ryan Tannehill had two touchdown passes in the game, both to RB Dontrell Hilliard.
• Dontrell Hilliard is out this week with a hamstring injury. 

The Bills will not only cover, but I’m predicting a shutout here. 

Vikings (+2.5) over Eagles

Semi-related note: I love the idea of two Monday night games. It should be the norm every week and the league should just axe Thursday night. 

This was the hardest game to call. You know the Vikings will force-feed Justin Jefferson the ball after last week’s 9-184-2 performance and, while I’d like to think the Eagles will be better prepared for this than the Packers were, it’s important to remember the Lions moved the ball pretty well on this Philly defense last week. This has shootout potential but, right now, I trust Minnesota’s pass rush to be more disruptive than Philly’s

2022 NFL Preview/Week 1 Picks

A new NFL season gets underway tonight, which means it's time for the annual NFL Predictions Sure To Go Wrong followed by the first of a (hopefully) weekly attempt at picking games. 

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

Wild Cards

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Las Vegas Raiders

7. Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West:  Los Angeles Rams

Wild Cards

5. San Francisco 49ers

6. Dallas Cowboys

7. New Orleans Saints

NFC Championship: Eagles over Rams
AFC Championship: Bills over Chargers
Super Bowl: Bills over Eagles

MVP: Justin Herbert, QB, LA Chargers
Off. Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Def. Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
Off. Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Def. Rookie of the Year: Aiden Hutchinson, DE, Detroit Lions
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 Picks

Bills (-2.5) over Rams

The NFL finally gets it right with a Super Bowl preview of a season opener between the two most balanced teams in the league. MVP candidate Josh Allen has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him while the Bills defense is bolstered by the arrival of pass rusher (and former Ram) Von Miller. Meanwhile, the Rams partnered reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp with Pro Bowler Allen Robinson while adding All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner to a defense that already includes future Hall of Famers Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Even with the star power on the respective defenses, this has plenty of shootout potential with the game coming down to whoever has the ball last. Allen's ability to make plays with his arm and feet gives Buffalo the edge here. Bills by 6 in an early Game of the Year contender.

Ravens (-6.5) over Jets

The Jets will be better than they have been in the past decade but injuries are already cutting into the team’s potential. New York will attempt to protect 37-year-old Joe Flacco, filling in for hobbled MILF hunter Zach Wilson, behind a shaky offensive already down two tackles against an aggressive Baltimore pass rush. Making matters worse for Gang Green, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder as he’s pursuing a new contract.

If the Jets can keep Flacco upright, they can make this a game but this a battle of promise vs proven and the Ravens should win this one going away.


Colts (-7) over Texans

The least talked-about of all potential Super Bowl contenders, the Colts kick off their 2022 campaign against a rebuilding Texans team still recovering from the Deshaun Watson debacle. This will be a good litmus test for Matt Ryan, Indy’s latest reclamation project at QB. Does he still have enough left in the tank or was his subpar final season in Atlanta a sign of things to come? Fortunately, Ryan can lean on MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to get past a Houston team still finding its footing.

Eagles (-5) over Lions

HBO did a good job making the Lions look like lovable underdogs but the NFL did Detroit’s darlings no favors by opening them up against a reloaded Eagles team. Protected by one of the league’s best offensive lines and flanked by a solid supporting cast including star acquisition AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball in the Motor City. Dan Campbell’s squad may lead the league in kneecap-biting, three-toe ass-kicking and grit this season but none of that saves them at home against Philly.


Niners (-6.5) over Bears

The Trey Lance era in San Francisco begins on the road against potentially the worst team in the NFL in the Chicago Bears. Bears QB Justin Fields will look to rebound from an uneven rookie season but he’ll spend most of the opening salvo running from former college teammate Nick Bosa and the Niners defense. Lance struggled with accuracy during the preseason and he’ll be without Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle. So, don’t be surprised if this is more a low-scoring affair with some big plays sprinkled throughout than a one-sided thrashing.

Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers

The dreaded Super Bowl hangover will come for the Bengals eventually but not on this day against a Steelers team quarterbacked by Mitch Trubisky. Cincy swept Pittsburgh last season and, at home riding momentum from a surprise Super Bowl run, I don’t expect that streak to end.

Panthers (-1) over Browns

Baker Mayfield has had this game circled on his calendar for months and why wouldn’t he? He’s at home in an arms race against Jacoby Brissett. Mayfield might not do enough this season to make the Browns regret trading him but debuting with a healthy Christian McCaffrey by his side will be enough for the former No. 1 overall pick to get his revenge.

Saints (-5.5) over Falcons

This is going to be a fun one. In one corner, you have Jameis Winston slinging it to Alvin Kamara, Jarvis Landry, a returning Michael Thomas and newcomer Chris Olave. In the other, you have young pups Kyle Pitts and Drake London looking to make a name for themselves. The Saints defense will keep this from getting out of hand but there’s plenty of breakout potential here.

Patriots (+3.5) over Dolphins

Miami spent the off-season doing whatever it could to get the most out of QB Tua Tagliavoa. Former Saints stud left tackle Terron Armstread was brought in to protect the blind side. Tyreek Hill was acquired from Kansas City as a deep threat and complement to last year’s rookie sensation Jaylen Waddle. Chase Edmonds and Rasheem Mostert were added to bolster the running game. However, it takes time for new pieces to gel and Patriots coach Bill Belichick can exploit any chemistry issues the Phins may have. New England doesn’t have enough firepower to go blow-for-blow but they can keep it close while Miami works out the kinks. Dolphins by 3.

Jaguars (+3) over Commanders

The Jaguars haven’t been good for awhile but opening as underdogs against a dysfunctional Commanders team is a little insulting. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence had a rough go of it in his rookie campaign but things are looking up. Former college teammate Travis Etienne is back. So is James Robinson. Christian Kirk came over from Arizona to be Lawrence’s top target. It’s possible the world is underrating Jacksonville and this is their coming out party.

Titans (-5) over Giants

The Giants are without their top two pass rushers AND still have Daniel Jones at QB, which is quite the double whammy for New York. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who has electric rookie Malik Willis breathing down his neck, should have time to operate. Oh, and Derrick Henry is back. When you add all this together, it equals Big Blue going out sad.

Vikings (-1.5) over Packers

These aren’t your father’s Packers. Gone are the days of relying on Aaron Rodgers’ arm to carry them to victory. Instead, the team will rely on a two-headed running game and a revamped defense to stay relevant. Injuries will force Green Bay to lean even harder on that strategy. Allen Lazard, the replacement for the departed Davante Adams, is out with an ankle injury. Green Bay’s top two linemen, David Bahktiari and Elgton Jenkins, will also sit. Rodgers traditionally struggled against Minnesota and those troubles look like they’ll continue.

Raiders (+3.5) over Chargers

This is Bills-Rams Light to me. Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are both MVP candidates, the former more so than the latter. The Raiders made huge additions at both ends, pairing Maxx Crosby with Chandler Jones to improve the pass rush and reuniting Carr with former college teammate Davante Adams to give the passing game more punch. The Chargers have a dynamic duo on defense, as well. Former Raider and 2016 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack was acquired from Chicago to give Joey Bosa a tag team partner on the edge. This could be a back-and-forth that comes down to the wire, which is why I’ll take Vegas and the points.

Chiefs (-6.5) over Cardinals

I’m not as high on the Chiefs as others are. Tyreek Hill was a huge loss for the passing game that can’t be filled with the trio of Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. The running game is uncertain and the defense is subpar. With that said, Kansas City should still have enough to hold off the Cardinals, who are missing DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore on offense and don’t have enough talent on defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes.


Cowboys (+2.5) over Bucs

Things are starting to unravel for the Bucs in what could be Tom Brady’s final season. The offensive line lost center Ryan Jensen and G Aaron Stinnie to injury. WRs Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, who will both play against Dallas, are banged up while Julio Jones is an injury waiting to happen. Even Brady is dealing with personal matters that kept him out of camp for weeks after unretiring early in the spring. The Cowboys are missing bodies, as well, most notably left tackle Tyron Smith and WR Michael Gallup. Former Eagles great Jason Peters was signed to fill in for Smith and he has a tall order trying to fend off this vaunted Tampa Bay pass rush. Traditionally, the key to beating Brady is hitting him early and often. I like Micah Parsons' chances of disrupting Tom Terrific's flow and helping Dallas pull off the upset.

Broncos (-6) over Seahawks

There isn’t much stopping Russell Wilson from stomping the Seahawks in his return to Seattle, where he spent nine seasons and won a Super Bowl before being traded to Denver this past spring. The Broncos have an advantage in nearly every aspect and the revenge factor for Wilson should turn things ugly early.

2022 NFL Mock Draft

Mock drafts are a trying exercise with a high failure rate and this year is especially difficult. For starters, there’s no consensus top prospect in the 2022 class. Michigan defensive end Aiden Hutchinson is considered the "safest" prospect in the draft and he’s not even a lock to go in the first two picks.

Secondly, the Jacksonville Jaguars are reportedly split on which direction they’re heading in despite being on the clock since January. Owner Shad Khan is believed to like Hutchinson. GM Trent Baalke is "infatuated" with Georgia’s Travon Walker while new head coach Doug Pederson is looking to protect franchise QB Trevor Lawrence with either Alabama’s Evan Neal or North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu. 

The mystery at the top of the draft makes for good television but bad news for prognosticators as the very blog you’re about to read could come crashing down after the first name is called. 

Still, attempting to predict the NFL draft and watching it immediately go up in flames has become a yearly occasion on this site, and who are we to buck tradition? 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia - Walker surpassed Hutchinson as the favorite on betting sites early this week, and while that doesn’t make this pick a lock, it’s certainly noteworthy. The thinking here is that Walker’s immense upside and athletic profile trumps Aiden Hutchinson’s production. It’s the same logic Trent Baalke applied when he took Aldon Smith over JJ Watt in 2011 while he was the San Francisco 49ers’ general manager. 

2. Detroit Lions: Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan - This isn’t about Hutchinson being a local boy or being the kind of lunch pail guy Lions coach Dan Campbell prefers. It’s about Hutchinson being a “safe” pick for a franchise that struggled to get it right in the opening round over the last two decades. That being said, there’s buzz that Detroit could take Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux here because, of course.

3. Houston Texans: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati - Houston can go in a number of directions here because it has holes everywhere. Thibodeaux, a Jadaveon Clowney clone once considered the best player in the draft, warrants consideration as does either of the top left tackles. Ultimately, the Texans opt for “Sauce”, a 6’2” corner who didn’t allow a single touchdown in college, because there’s less of a chance at securing a shutdown corner later in the draft than there is of finding a pass rusher or a starting tackle. 

4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon - The Jets had pass rush concerns even before last year’s free agent signing Carl Lawson blew out his Achilles ;ast spring. Enter Thibodeaux, a 6’5”, 250 pound athletic freak whose stock is taking hits as teams question his commitment to football. If head coach Robert Saleh can keep Thibs motivated, he’s a potential steal alongside Lawson and fellow first-rounder Quinnen Williams. 

5. New York Giants: Ikem “Ickey” Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State - The draft not being held in New York in a year where both local teams are picking four times in the first 10 picks is a tragedy, but I digress.

As for this selection, the Giants’ plan to turn Daniel Jones into something other than Andy Dalton with quicker feet starts with keeping him upright. Former first round pick Andrew Thomas has struggled on the left side and veteran Nate Solder is a shell of his former self. Ekwonu, meanwhile, is a versatile road-grader who can play inside or outside and help solidify a weak Big Blue front five. 

PROJECTED TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles send No. 15, No. 51 and No. 101 (from New Orleans) overall to the Carolina Panthers for No. 6 overall.

The Panthers have several needs, most notably at QB and along the offensive line, and not a lot of picks. After their first round pick at 6, they don’t pick again until the fourth round at 137 overall. Meanwhile, Eagles GM Howie Rosenbaum loves making draft day trades and Philadelphia is reportedly among the busiest teams in terms of trying to trade up.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina): Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU - Darius Slay is still one of the league’s best corners but the Eagles have struggled to find someone to complement him on the other side. Stingley was a top recruit coming out of high school and showed flashes of dominance as a true freshman at LSU in 2019 before injuries derailed his college career. He shook off any health concerns at his pro day and could go as high as Houston at No. 3. 

PROJECTED TRADE: Pittsburgh Steelers trade No. 20 overall, a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick to the New York Giants for the No. 7 overall.

Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson. Those are just some of the QBs teams have traded up for in recent years. The success rate on this kind of gamble isn’t high but that doesn’t stop franchises hungry for a new signal caller from rolling the dice seemingly every year. 

Despite this year’s QB class being rather weak, several teams will be vying for new passers and few are picking as far down the draft as the Pittsburgh Steelers. With the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, the death of Dwayne Haskins and the signing of Trubisky, the Steelers are in dire need of a quality addition to their QB room. The Giants, once again, turn another team’s desperation into future draft picks. 

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (from New York Giants via Chicago): Malik Willis, QB, Liberty - Steelers coach Mike Tomlin expressed a desire to have a more mobile QB after years of getting by with statuesque Big Ben behind center. Willis’ combination of speed and arm strength has drawn comparisons to Mike Vick (best case scenario, minus the jail time) and Jalen Hurts (worst case scenario). The knock on Willis is he didn’t play top tier competition at Liberty and it will take some time for him to adjust at the pro level but his physical attributes should make him the first QB off the board in the top half of the draft. 

8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR, USC - Damiere Byrd. Olamide Zaccheaus. Khadarel Hodge. Auden Tate. Those aren’t Game of Thrones characters. That’s the Falcons’ top four receivers going into the draft after losing Calvin Ridley to a gambling suspension and Russell Gage in free agency. Fortunately, this is a deep wide receiver class and Atlanta should be able to snag whoever they want as their new WR1. London is a 6’4 pogo stick who makes up for his lack of top end speed with elite hops and body control. He and tight end Kyle Pitts will give Atlanta a solid one-two punch…if Marcus Mariota can get them the ball. 

9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Evan Neal, OT, Alabama - Seattle’s tendency to make oddball first-round picks and ignore team needs frustrated both Russell Wilson and mock drafters alike over the years. Who knew reaching for guys like Rashaad Penny, LJ Collier, Germain Ifedi and Jordyn Brooks would blow up to the point that their former franchise QB wanted out? 

Draft failures aside, it would be peak pettiness for the Seahawks to use the first pick acquired from Denver in the Wilson trade on an offensive lineman after years of failing to protect Russ. Evan Neal is a 6’7, 350 pound behemoth who played all over the line at Alabama and is believed to be in consideration for the top pick. Common sense suggests that, if Neal were to fall this far, Seattle should rush to turn his name in but rational draft choices and the Seahawks haven’t been in the same sentence in quite some time. 

10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame - Hamilton is considered to be the best safety prospect to enter the draft in decades but is expected to slide down the draft because he doesn’t play a premium position and his workout numbers from his pro day were suboptimal. After missing out on the top two corners in this mock draft, the Jets would be wise to stop Hamilton’s free fall and give Robert Saleh another toy to play with. Post-draft grades are typically meaningless but, if the Jets walk out of Day 1 with Thibodeaux and Hamilton, they deserve their share of praise. 

11. Washington Commanders: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State - Washington won’t get to address its biggest need because league rules prohibit teams from drafting a new owner. 

That glaring issue aside, the team would be wise to add another weapon given the uncertainty surrounding Terry McLaurin’s future in the nation’s capital. Even if the team can get Scary Terry to agree to a long-term deal, the Commanders could use someone who can take defensive pressure away from McLaurin. Wilson succeeded McLaurin at Ohio State and would reunite with former Buckeyes teammate Chase Young in DC. 

12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State - The Vikings currently have Danielle Hunter and free agent signing Za’Darius Smith on the edge but the two played a combined nine games in 2021 (including playoffs) due to injury. Johnson could work his way into the rotation in the short-term before replacing one of the incumbents long-term. 

PROJECTED TRADE: Kansas City Chiefs trade No. 29 and No. 30 overall to Houston Texans for the No. 13 overall. 

After trading Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to Miami earlier this year, the Chiefs have a surplus of picks and a huge void at wide receiver. They could stay put and hope someone from a deep class falls to them at the end of the first or cash in for a better prospect. The Texans already have the most picks of any team in the draft so there isn’t much of a need to drop down 16 spots except for the ability to secure another first-round pick. 

13. Kansas City Chiefs (from Houston via Cleveland): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama - Patrick Mahomes’ current “weapons” are Travis Kelce, TikToker JuJu Smith-Schuster and speedy-but-stone-handed former Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yikes. The Chiefs own six of the first 103 selections after the Hill trade, including three in the top 50, and it makes more sense for them to move up for an elite talent like Williams than sit idle. Before tearing his ACL, Williams was one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football. He doesn’t possess Cheetah’s otherworldly speed but he has star potential once his knee fully heals. 

14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia - Davis would be the Ravens’ first defensive lineman taken in the opening round since Haloti Ngata in 2006, which is fitting because he is of the same monstrous ilk. Davis wowed scouts with an impressive combine performance including running the 40 in 4.8 seconds at 6’6, 341 pounds. The big man doesn’t immediately solve Baltimore’s need for pass rushers but he’s a potentially dominant run stuffer on a defensive line that faces Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Najee Harris twice a year each. 

15. Carolina Panthers (from Philadelphia via Miami) Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh - The Panthers’ failures at quarterback over the last year are almost comical. The Sam Darnold experiment didn’t work out. Neither did the return of Cam Newton and none of the other passers up for grabs via trade or free agency seemed interested in coming to Charlotte. With head coach Matt Rhule on the hot seat, he might as well go down swinging with the kid he recruited in college. Pickett won All-American honors and the Johnny Unitas award last season but some teams are worried he’s a one-season wonder with small hands. If anyone sees Pickett’s potential, it’s Rhule, but the real challenge will be protecting his latest franchise QB behind a horrid offensive line. 

16. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State - The Saints are in the market for a QB but, after losing Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead to Miami in free agency, they have a greater need on the offensive line. Cross isn’t as highly regarded as Neal or Ekwonu but he’s not far behind them. With two of the first 19 picks, a trade-up can't be ruled out but the Saints get lucky here by having Cross fall to them. 

PROJECTED TRADE: Green Bay Packers send No. 22 and No. 92 overall to Los Angeles Chargers for No. 17 overall

In 2020, the Packers made an aggressive move up the draft to secure the services of Utah State QB Jordan Love. That decision irked Aaron Rodgers as it came without his prior knowledge and ignored his request for more offensive weaponry. It would set off a two-year drama between the team and its future Hall of Fame QB that is tenuously settled, at best. Now, after trading the best weapon Rodgers ever had in Davante Adams, all eyes will be on how the Packers address their biggest need. 

One of the ways Green Bay can stay in A-Rod’s good graces is to show the same aggression in moving up for a receiver that the team showed in acquiring Rodgers’ heir apparent two years ago. 

17. Green Bay Packers (from Los Angeles Chargers): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State - It’s hard to predict where and which order the top receivers in this draft will go but the consensus seems to be that London/Williams/Wilson/Olave are the top four with the others being a cut below. With 11 selections in this draft, the Packers could probably stand to move up even higher if they really want to have their pick of pass catchers but Olave is seen as the best fit for Green Bay’s scheme. He possesses ideal size (6’1, 190) with the deep speed Green Bay is looking for. He’s no Davante Adams. No one is. But he’ll have the opportunity to step in and produce right away. 

18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah - Philly can go in a number of directions here. It could take a receiver for the third year in a row. It could use an infusion of youth on the either line. It could even trade down to recoup some picks if, as in this mock, they decide to move up earlier in the night. In this scenario, they opt for Lloyd, a sideline-to-sideline menace who draws comparisons to Colts All-Pro Darius Leonard. It’s not a sexy pick but the Eagles have needed help at linebacker for a while now. 

19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Jameis Winston isn’t the long-term answer in New Orleans and, with no first-round pick next year, their best shot at a franchise QB will be taking one with either of their top picks this year. Corral isn’t without his warts. There were character issues stemming from his interviews as well as concerns his smallish frame (6’1, 205 pounds) can hold up in the NFL. On the flip side, he has a big arm, didn’t turn the ball over much at Ole Miss and the Saints have some experience working with undersized QBs. The team could also opt for Cincy's Desmond Ridder or North Carolina's Sam Howell.

20. New York Giants (from Pittsburgh): Logan Hall, EDGE, Houston - The Giants’ two biggest needs going into the draft are fixing the offensive line and bolstering their pass defense. New York addressed the former with the fifth pick and, even after a move down, still find a way to add an edge rusher with the fast-rising Hall. Hall wasn’t on the first-round radar early in the draft process but, after running a 4.8 40 at 6’6, 275 pounds and spending a good portion of his college career in opposing backfields (13 tackles for loss, six sacks, 30 pressures last season), his stock is going up. The Giants brought Hall in for a meeting early this week with hopes of grabbing him on Day 2 but it’s looking like he won’t last that long. 

21. New England Patriots: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College - Bill Belichick is the deacon of draft night dealing. So, don’t be surprised if this pick finds its way in another team’s hands. If they stay put, they could use a corner to replace the departing JC Jackson or get Mac Jones another weapon. They instead go with Zion Johnson, a local product and the best offensive guard in the draft, to help keep Money Mac safe.

22. Los Angeles Chargers (from Green Bay via Las Vegas): Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa - Having addressed the defense with the additions of Khalil Mack and JC Jackson earlier in the spring, the Chargers can turn their attention to the offensive side of the ball. A pass catcher who could work in three-wide sets and eventually usurp Keenan Allen is a possibility, as is reaching for a bruising runner to pair with Austin Ekeler. However, after hitting a home run with Rashawn Slater last year, continuing to build the offensive line and giving rising star Justin Herbert more time to throw is the best option. Penning is the last of the sure-fire first-round tackles and he would fit nicely on the right side, where the struggled with Bryan Bulaga and Storm Norton. 

23. Arizona Cardinals: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue - The Cardinals’ once-promising defense has taken some hits over the years. The team lost pass rusher Chandler Jones in free agency a year after losing Hasaan Reddick and 33-year-old JJ Watt can’t seem to stay on the field. Arizona is believed to be smitten with Karlaftis, who had a productive career at Purdue (93 tackles, 27 for loss, 12 sacks, three forced fumbles and six passes defensed in the last two seasons). 

24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa - Dallas has needs at receiver and all over the defense but the key to their success has always been a strong offensive line. That hasn’t been the case lately due to injuries and, after losing Conner Williams and La’el Collins in free agency, there are some holes to fill. The University of Iowa has a history of producing quality offensive linemen (Tristan Wirfs, James Daniels, Riley Reiff, Marshall Yanda in recent years) and Linderbaum is the latest Hawkeyes standout. The reigning Rimington Trophy winner is considered the best center in the draft and earned the highest grade of any player from Pro Football Focus last season (95.4).

PROJECTED TRADE: The Seattle Seahawks trade No. 40 and No. 109 to the Buffalo Bills for No. 25 overall. 

The Bills don’t have a ton of dire needs and this is the part of the draft where teams looking to jump back into the first round will start working the phones. With two second-round picks in this year’s draft, the Seahawks have the ammo to move up. 

25. Seattle Seahawks (from Buffalo): Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati - The Seahawks can’t go into this season with Drew Lock as their answer at QB, and with few top prospects left and several teams in need of a passer, Seattle would be wise to pounce here. Ridder’s accuracy has been scrutinized but scored a 59 percent on “accurate/on target” passes of five or more yards, sixth in the country and second only to Kenny Pickett in this draft class. He’s a big guy (6’4, 215) who can run and, accuracy concerns not withstanding , the need for quarterbacks will likely push him into the first round. 

26. Tennessee Titans: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan - The Titans are no strangers to taking elite talent whose stock drops due to injuries. They opted for Jeffrey Simmons in 2019 despite a knee issue and didn’t let Caleb Farley’s bad back stop them from calling his name last year. Ojabo was a potential top-10 pick before tearing his Achilles at his pro day. He’s certain to miss the first few weeks of the season but, if he can return to being the menace he was at Michigan, this is the steal of the draft. 

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M - I’ve had the Bucs taking a QB here for quite some time, even after 43-year-old Tom Brady unretired, but I don’t think Tampa risks angering the GOAT by taking his heir apparent when they're in win now mode. Green isn’t a flashy pick but he's arguably the best offensive lineman available and you can never go wrong investing in keeping Tom Brady upright. 

28. Green Bay Packers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia - Even after trading up for a receiver, I’m fine with the Packers using their other first-round pick on another wideout. Sammy Watkins, Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb are the team’s top weapons and all of them come with injury concerns. Doubling down on the receiver need would address a long-standing problem area and would be a gesture of good faith in their fragile relationship with Aaron Rodgers. 

That being said, Green Bay has other needs and bringing in another pass rusher to pair with Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith is a nice move. Wyatt was a unsung hero on a Bulldog defensive line that also included top pick Travon Walker and combine standout Jordan Davis, but scouts love his quick first step and think he can be an immediate impact player on the interior. 

29 and 30. Houston Texans (from Kansas City): Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State and Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State - In the interest of saving space, I combined these two picks since their back-to-back.

Watson is my favorite player in this draft, a 6’5, 210 pound menace whose 9.96 Relative Athletic Score (which grades a prospect’s measurements, such as height, weight, 40 time, vertical and three-cone drills, compared to their peer group) was the 11th-highest of the last 35 years.By comparison, Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson scored a 10 and Julio Jones put up a 9.97. He’s a small school standout who can develop into a go-to guy once he gets adjusted to the pro level. 

Ebiketie fills a pass rushing need the Texans could easily address with the No. 3 pick. Pro Football Focus gave him the highest defensive grade for a Penn State player since reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons in 2019. A trio of “Sauce” Gardner, Watson and Ebikitie gives Houston some nice building blocks on Day 1. 

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida - The Bengals used free agency to address a woeful offensive line that let Joe Burrow get pummeled all season. Now, they must work on a pass defense that was torched by Matt Stafford in the Super Bowl. Elam’s stock is on the rise and he could leap Washington’s Trent McDuffie as the third corner off the board. Elam ran a 4.39 40 at 6’2, 196 pounds and should eventually take over for the oft-criticized Eli Apple in the defensive backfield. 

32. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington - Cornerback Jeff Okudah looks like a bust after failing to stay healthy in his two pro seasons. Even if the 3rd overall pick from the 2020 draft bounces back, the Lions need someone on the opposite end to stand tall against a pass-happy NFC North division. McDuffie could certainly go higher than this, perhaps even in the top half, but other needs and trades pushed him down in this mock. Detroit would be ecstatic if it could pair a high motor pass rusher in Aiden Hutchinson with a potential shutdown corner who allowed just 11 yards in coverage last season.