Thursday, July 2, 2009

Better Late Than Never

Some quick basketball thoughts after what has been a busy week of moving and shaking in the NBA:

* I think the Shaq trade pretty much guarentees two things: 1. The Cavs will go to all types of desperation to get LeBron a ring this year and 2. LeBron's going to be a Knick by this time next year. For one, Shaq's deal expires at the end of the season, which means the Cavs will essentially have to convince LeBron to stay home while once again rebuilding his supporting cast. Meanwhile, the Knicks have sent a majority of its roster packing to prepare itself for a Steinbrenner-esque spending spree next summer. On top of that, they're trying to make a move for young Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio, which might both entice LeBron to come to NY and shed the troublesome contracts of Eddy Curry and Jared Jefferies.

*Cleveland left the Eastern Conference Finals upset to Orlando needing a big body to keep the Dwight Howards and Kevin Garnetts from having their way inside, a reliable shooter who can make teams pay for doubling or tripling LeBron and an athletic forward to defend when opposing teams go small. Shaq, at 37, doesn't fill any of those needs. Another obstacle is not only whether Shaq can play second fiddle to King James, but also the effictiveness of longtime starter Zydrunas Ilgauskas after being forced into a reserve role behind The Diesel. After not helping itself in the Draft, this team has a long way to go if it's serious about keeping LeBron past next summer.

*Speaking of Orlando, swapping post-season star Hedo Turkoglu for the recently acquired Vince Carter will be a topic of discussion over the next coming months but I think the exchange is a slight upgrade for Orlando. Carter has been a consistant scoring machine since his arrival in 1998. Does he tend to disappear in big moments? Sure. Is he injury-prone? Definitely. However, he's essentially being squeezed into a team that already has three other All-Stars in Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson, which means he won't be asked to carry the team. While Turkoglu was the Magic's hot hand in the playoffs, it remains to be seen whether that was a sign of things to come or just a guy angling for big contract. It was also a nice retaliation move by GM Otis Smith, responding to the Cavs acquring Shaq. This was a team that could have went to the Finals again without any new pieces and Orlando did a nice job moving spare parts for a proven All-Star who knows his window for winning a ring is steadily closing.

*I guess the big problem I have with all this movement is that it's dividing the league into two sides: Big market teams that are able to consistantly compete thanks to a tremendous revenue stream and a never-ending supply of talent and the the smaller market teams that are providing the big market teams with that young talent because they can't afford to keep a young nucleus and stay afloat financially. It's similar to Major League Baseball, where smaller cities serve only one purpose: To act as farm systems for their more populated counterparts. Look at your top free agents and where they're rumored to go. Miami. New York. L.A. Dallas. You don't see Rasheed Wallace salivating to play for Oklahoma City. Or Paul Millsap begging for a trade to Sacramento. Instead, the NBA will continue to have the same 4-6 teams compete for the crown every year while the rest of the league trots out its stars in an attempt to draw interest in players that will inevitably make its largest contributions in larger cities. It's a sickening trend for fans of small market teams and it makes you wonder if this growing problem as well as the financial crisis will have commissioner David Stern facing the same problem MLB faced years ago: Contraction.

* Many question the T'Wolves drafting point guards Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn with consecutive picks, but I find the move to be very savvy. For one, nobody had Rubio lasting past Sacramento at 4(certainly not Washington, which moved out of the 5 spot) and Minnesota was wise in not only acquiring the draft's biggest trade chip but also snagging Flynn as a safeguard. With interest in Rubio(who supposedly wants no part of playing in Minnesota) high and the T'Wolves needs aplenty, Minnesota is in a prime position to grab as much as it can from the latest overhyped international superstar. While Rubio's people has threatned to stay in Spain, Rubio's continued dominance overseas will only drive up interest from other teams. The Knicks are already interested and it might not be long before other big markets join them. (If you're the Clippers, and you have proven stars on a team going nowhere and you need to sell tickets, wouldn't you at least kick the tires on the possibility of uniting Rubio with Blake Griffin?). Flynn, on the other hand, is Rubio insurance. With the Wolves not expecting to have a shot at the Spanish Pete Maravich, it wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota made a verbal commitment to Flynn's people prior to draft day(ala Shelden Williams and Atlanta in 2006). With Rubio still on the board, the Wolves were faced with passing on Rubio twice or taking both he and Flynn to avoid breaking their promise. Let's face it, other than Griffin and Rubio, there were no two players the Timberwolves could have selected with those two picks that would have made them anything resembling a contender. With Rubio as their ace in the hole, it will be interesting how Minnesota plays its hand.

*The real head scratcher to me has been the moves made by Memphis over the past week. First, they passed on Rubio(who, much like Minnesota, had a reluctance to play in Memphis) in favor of UConn big man Hasheem Thabeet with the # 2 pick. While Thabeet's size and defensive prowess fits a need for the Grizzlies, his limitations on offense make it hard to justify taking him 2nd overall. Another strange move was Memphis agreeing to deal draft bust Darko Milicic to the Knicks for Quentin Richardson and then agreeing to move Q to the Clippers for Zach Randolph, when they already had Thabeet and Marc Gasol on the roster. That means Gasol, the Grizz's best post player last year and Thabeet, the #2 overall pick, will be splitting time while Memphis is forced to figure out a way to get Randolph and young studs Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo to share the ball. Doesn't it seem like a waste of both a pick to draft a guy who, because of the newly formed clusterfuck in the frontcourt, will have his minutes limited while trying to both adjust to the pro game and develop offensively. Remember, Thabeet's only been playing basketball for a couple of years. He's still very raw and bringing in a knucklehead like Randolph only stunts his growth.

Here's what I would have done: I take Rubio at 2, knowing full well he'll never dribble a basketball in a Grizzlies uni. I then call up the Clippers and offer up Rubio and Richardson's expiring deal for the bad contracts of Randolph and Baron Davis and a conditional first rounder in next year's draft. Why would trade a promising prospect for two clowns with bad deals? Because besides the fact that Rubio doesn't want to play here, there's still the overwhelming possibility that he'll flop. While Davis and Randolph might be lazy bums who need a forest fire to light a spark under their asses, they're proven commodities. You tell me that a starting five of Gasol, Randolph, Gay, Mayo and Davis(with Conley in the wings) doesn't work better than Thabeet/Gasol, Randolph, Gay, Mayo and an inconsistant Mike Conley Jr. at the point? Sure, the team is a chemistry nightmare, but it's offensively stacked and all it takes the right coach to turn a band of clowns into a three-ring circus(Right, George Karl?). As for the Clippers, you're shedding two financial mistakes in Randolph and Davis and you're essentially using next year's first on Rubio, but at the same time, you're adding the two best players in a two-player draft(Rubio and Blake Griffin) to go along with Eric Gordon and a still sharp Quentin Richardson and you STILL have Marcus Camby's expiring deal to manuever with. You can't tell me Rubio lobbing passes to Griffin won't put butts in seats the next few years, before they inevitably leave Clipperland.

*I have to say I don't get Ben Gordon going to Detroit unless you're telling me Rip Hamilton is getting dealt. For one, if you're Gordon, why would you parlay a big postseason and finally getting a crack at testing the market into maybe or maybe not starting for a Pistons team that's not contending in the next couple years. You're gonna tell me a Pistons team, with no coach at the moment, is going to compete with Boston/Orlando/Cleveland with a starting five of Oberto, Villanueva, Prince, Hamilton/Gordon and Rodney Stuckey? I don't think so. First of all, the Pistons should have taken advantage of Boston's stupidity and jumped on sending Prince, Rip and Stuckey to the C's for Rondo and Ray Allen's corpse. Any time you can get top 5 point guard for aging stars, YOU DO IT! Secondly, since you passed on that deal and are waving bye-bye to Sheed as a free agent, then why not try to acquire one of Utah's steady big men Paul Millsap and Carlos Boozer. The Jazz have needed a two guard since Jeff Hornacek retired and they are dying to shed either Boozer's big contract or avoid paying Millsap, so why not build a deal around Rip and bring in a guy like Boozer? In a size deficient East(even with KG, Howard and a returning Diesel), Boozer would be a much more dominant force than he was out West(In fact, knowing this, why didn't the Cavs make a move on bringing back Boozer instead of rotting and decaying Shaq?). As for Villanueva, this is his 3rd team since being drafted by Toronto in 2005, and he's never going to be more than a poor man's Lamar Odom, so why is he your first choice to replace Rasheed? Unless you're telling me that either a. the Pistons are considering the Rondo trade and they're going with a backcourt of Rondo and Gordon with Allen moving to the 3 or b. Gordon's running the point(which he can't do) instead of Stuckey, I can't wrap my head around these moves, for either the players or the team.

*Dear Michael Jordan, get over your Tarheel bias and send Raymond Felton packing and offer a contract to Allen Iverson. Look, nothing you do will make your rep as a GM any worse, so why not give the people what they want. Let's see Larry Brown-Allen Iverson Part 2 and let's make it snappy. Here's the thing about AI: He has poor shot selection but he's very capable of playing within himself when he has a coach that doesn't let AI walk all over him(like Karl did the beginning of last season in Denver). Not only that, he's still a solid scorer when motivated(which he will be under Brown again) and he's a good enough passer to justify having him run the point. Listen, Your Airness, you've swung and missed on Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, you foolishly traded for Jason Richardson and you let your North Carolina roots con you into bringing in Felton and Sean May. Here's a shot at redemption. Give us the Brown-Iverson Farewell Tour.

*I really can't see Artest wanting to stay in Houston with no T-Mac and no Yao. I just can't.

*I've never been a huge Tyler Hansbrough fan, but I like his arrival to the Pacers and teaming him with Roy Hibbert. You can talk all you want that he wasn't worth it that high, but in a draft filled with gambles, you can't go wrong with a guy with Hansbrough's resume who is dead-set on proving the doubters wrong.

*The Pistons are supposedly debating on Doug Collins or Avery Johnson to replace Mike Curry as head coach. One, what has Doug Collins EVER done to justify his name coming up in coaching vacancies every summer and who does Tom Thibodeau have to sleep with to get serious consideration for a head coaching gig?

*Two years from now, we are going to be talking about how (insert teams here) will ever find a taker for Marcin Gortat and Hedo Turkoglu's bad contracts. Mark my words.

*In the blog I inevitably deleted before Draft Day, I mentioned that the Warriors should take a page out of Boston's playbook and deal some of its young talent for a proven superstar. If they can get Amare Stoudemire to agree to a deal, I love the thought of him in Nellie's offense alongside Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette, even if it means losing promising guard Stephen Curry. Let the Suns wait on Brandon Wright and Andres Biedrins and Marco Bellinelli to fufill their promise.

*Speaking of Phoenix, you've dealt Shaq. You're dealing Amare. What possible reason do you have to not only keep Steve Nash but give him an extension. And why would Nash stay when you've surrounded him with a bunch of Golden State busts and the two worst guys off Cleveland's bench last year?

*Word on the street is KG is courting Rasheed Wallace to Boston. My question is where would Sheed play? He won't play center and is this courtship a subtle message by Garnett that his knee will never be right and that Boston should start looking at guys like Wallace to eventually replace The Big Ticket?

With baseball the only sport still in regulation until the NFL starts up in September, there's plenty of time to answer these questions as well as weigh in on other events around the NBA that boggle my mind.

Until next time, this is your favorite blogger's favorite blogger......breaking out like Yao Ming's foot.

---Dave

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