NFL Over-Under 2009

Vegas posted its projections for each NFL team's regular season win total. With pre-season a couple weeks away, we took it upon ourselves to place our bets on what teams will go over or under Vegas' predictions. Here goes:

AFC East

New England Patriots(Vegas projected win total: 12)

Dave: Under. Until we see whether Tom Brady is 100% following knee surgery, I remain a bit skeptical. Are they still the class of the division? Sure. They're also aging on defense on top of the fact that they'll have mostly new starters in the secondary and they lost one of their better pass rushers in LB Mike Vrabel. Plus, the offensive line still struggles with speed rushers and the schedule is a bit tougher than it was last year. So I say 10 is likely, with 11 within reach if Brady recovers well.

Gabe: Over. This is one of the two sucker bets on this list. The Patriots are back. They will be back to their 2007 form. I don't think they are going to undefeated, but I can see them winning 14 games. I see them having trouble in Indy in November and I could see them losing in week 17 to Houston. By then the Pats will have nothing to play for and Houston should be fighting for the playoffs. I think New England will finish with the best record in the league.

Miami Dolphins: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Over. A team that was already good on D last year brought back S Yermiah Bell and DE/LB Jason Taylor and added S Gibril Wilson along with rookies Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. They have a vastly underrated offensive line to go along with the solid 1-2 punch of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Their receivers won't scare you, but then again, QB Chad Pennington can't stretch the field anyway. Put me down for 9 wins.

Gabe: Under. I know they were good last year, but their schedule this year is brutal. On top of their own division they have to play the NFC South this year and the AFC South, getting the Jags and Titans on the road. I think 8-8 is going to be a tall order this year.

Buffalo Bills: (Vegas projected win total: 7.5)

Dave: Under. They'll be without RB Marshawn Lynch for the first three games, they just exiled one of the best left tackles in the league in Jason Peters and I wouldn't put it past T.O. to start throwing Trent Edwards under the bus by Week 4. Edwards' arm just isn't strong enough to make the deep throws when the winds start swirling in late November and December and Owens isn't going to be content with the team going to a more run-oriented game plan. I like them for 6 wins, and that's a stretch.

Gabe: Under. The Bills have a tough schedule (just like the rest of the AFC East) that is made tougher by having to south or to climate controlled stadiums late in the year. Cold weather teams always get gassed when they have to play in warm weather late in the year. I don't think T.O. is going to help that much. Like Dave said, Trent Edwards will not make him happy. I've got Buffalo only winning 5 games.

New York Jets: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Under. They'll start the season with either rookie Mark Sanchez or unproven Kellen Clemens at QB and, unless they can swing a deal for a Plaxico Burress or Anquan Boldin, the receiving corps leave a lot to be desired. There's also the unsolved contract issues of RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, which could be a distraction. They do have a top-notch defense and a great defensive mind in Rex Ryan, but unless the offense can overcome its growing pains, Gang Green is probably better suited for next year. Give me 7 wins.

Gabe: Under. Here's the deal. The Jets are toast. Their QB situation is so bad that teams will be able to pin their ears back and tee off on whoever is under center. In the first three weeks they play at Houston and then are home to the Patriots and Titans. That spells 0-3 and a precedent for the rest of the year. I'll give the Jets 5 wins.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: (Vegas projected win total: 11)

Dave: Over. The defending champs won 12 games last year despite the league's toughest schedule and a banged-up backfield. This year, the schedule's a bit lighter and, as of right now, they'll start with the thunder and lightning combination of Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker toting the rock. If those two can stay healthy, with that rock-solid defense, matching last year's win total will be a lot easier this time around.

Gabe. Over. The Steelers have not changed much since last year. Like Dave said, last year they were banged up and had the toughest schedule in the NFL. This year, their schedule is such that I think they could start the season 10-0, not slipping up until they play at Baltimore. Put me down for the Steelers winning 13 games.

Baltimore Ravens: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: Over. They'll miss the steady consistency of recently-retired WR Derrick Mason and they'll miss the aggressive spark that was supplied by departed LB Bart Scott, but this is still a nasty defense with a three-pronged running attack of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain. Plus, QB Joe Flacco now has a year of seasoning under his belt. I like them for 10 wins, but put me down for more if they acquire Cards wideout Anquan Boldin by Opening Day.

Gabe: Over. What is the formula for winning in the NFL? Run the ball, stop the run. What do the Ravens have? Crazy good defense, three-headed monster at RB. They'll have a rough road until their bye week, then they will go on a tear. Like Dave, I have them at 10 wins.

Cincinatti Bengals: (Vegas projected win total: 5.5)

Dave: Over. Lost in all the drama of Carson Palmer's nagging elbow, Chad Ochocinco's name change and the never ending string of jailed Bengals was the fact that the team actually showed signs of life on defense for the first time under the Marvin Lewis regime. Palmer is expected to be back healthy and Ochocinco seems determined to rebound from last year's dreadful campaign. The running game is still headed by pepper-spray champion Cedric Benson, but an improved line and a healthy Carson should be good for at least 6 wins.

Gabe. Over. Barely. Palmer and Chad Ochocinco should get back in rhythm. Their defense is getting better, but it doesn't take much to be better than they have been. They still have no running game. Again, I agree with Dave, 6 wins.

Cleveland Browns: (Vegas projected win total: 6.5)

Dave: WAY Under. While there won't be much transition defensively from the old Romeo Crennel regime to the new Eric Mangini Era, that doesn't mean last year's woeful D will be much better. The team ignored its needs on D in the draft, opting to move down an select a center in Alex Mack. It also passed up the chance to move its two biggest trade chips, QB Brady Quinn and WR Braylon Edwards, in hopes that they'll turn it around this year. The QB battle between Quinn and Derek Anderson will come down to the lesser of two evils, Edwards has to prove he's chipped away at his stone hands and RB Jamal Lewis will have to show a pulse. That's asking far too much in one year. Call them lucky if they get 4 wins.

Gabe: Under. Way Under. Jamal Lewis is their no. 1 RB. That's great in 2003 when he ran for 500 yards in two games against these same Browns. Now they might as well have me in their backfield. Oh, and they suck at QB and on defense. If they don't rise up and beat Cincy at home (their only shot at an early season win) I think they'll go all the way to November 22nd before they win a game. I'll give them 3 wins.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: (Vegas projected win total: 10.5)

Dave: Under. It seems every year I doubt the Colts and every year they prove me wrong, but I believe last year's slow start was a sign of things to come. In the offseason, they lost iconic wide receiver Marvin Harrison and even more iconic coach Tony Dungy as well as most of Dungy's staff. They replaced Dungy with longtime assistant Jim Caldwell but while the team has made an effort to get younger, they haven't made an effort to get better. The Colts sit in the league's toughest division and unless someone emerges from a group of unprovens, it will be asking a lot of Peyton Manning to muster up more than 9 wins.

Gabe: Over. And so it starts. The AFC South is loaded this year. Outside of the division they all have a cake schedule. I think Indy losing Marvin Harrison is going to be addition by subtraction. Their other WR's will shine. They will not miss a beat transitioning from Tony Dungy to Tony Dungy-lite, I mean Jim Caldwell. I'll go just barely over at 11 wins.

Tennessee Titans: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: WAY Over. Sure, this team will miss premier defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, but not to the tune of 5 less wins than last year's 13 win campaign. The Titans replaced Haynesworth amicably down the stretch last year and they still possess the lethal ground tandem of speedy Chris Johnson and bruising LenDale White. They also were aggressive in improving the air attack by bringing in the vastly underrated Nate Washington from the Steelers and immature-yet-freakishly gifted rookie Kenny Britt of Rutgers. It might be a bit much to think QB Kerry Collins can continue his magic to the tune of another 13 win season, but, to me, this is the best team in the AFC and 12 wins is very doable.

Gabe: Over. Unlike Dave, I don't think they are the best in the AFC, but I think they are the class of this division. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are a real "Thunder/Lightning"combo. Kerry Collins has got at least one more good year in him. Their defense is still stout. I have them winning 12 games.

Houston Texans: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Push. This team is set up quite nicely on both sides of the ball. On defense, they have former top pick Mario Williams to go along with fellow draft picks DT Amobi Okoye, CB Dunta Robinson, LB DeMeco Ryans and rookie LB Brian Cushing. On offense, the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson combination could be the league's best by season's end if Schaub can stay healthy. They also have steady wideout Kevin Walter and jitterbug RB Steve Slaton. The division is still a bit too stacked to expect more than a .500 season, but if any of the big boys above stumble out of the gate, the Texans might not be so easy to walk over as in past years.

Gabe: Over. This might be a bit of a pick from the heart. I've always liked the Texans and they have always seem to be a year away from putting it together. Well, this year is year I think they gel. Their defense is better than good. Steve Slaton gives them a legit running game. I think Andre Johnson is somehow the best WR and the most underrated WR in the NFL. They will take advantage of the weak out of division schedule and maybe even steal a game from Indy or Tennessee at home. I also have them beating the Pats in week 17. Give me, dare I say it, 10 wins for the Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Under. Someone has to finish last in this division and I'm not sold the Jags did enough this offseason to make me believe they're back as contenders. Sure, they improved the offensive line vastly with free agent Tra Thomas and rookies Eugene Monroe and Eban Britton. And, yes, they did bring in Pro Bowl WR Torry Holt. However, there were signs last year that the team has given up on coach Jack Del Rio and in a division this deep, it might be too late for Jack D to inspire his team to put forth the kind of effort needed to compete in the South. 7-9 is possible, but 6-10 is more likely.

Gabe: Push. Like Dave says, someone has to finish last in this division. I think that, just like every other team in the AFC South, the Jags will take advantage of the weak schedule they face out of division. I think the best they can hope for is a split with their in division rivals. I'll go 8 games.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers: (Vegas projected win total: 10.5)

Dave: Over. You have to think the troika of Rivers-Gates-Tomlinson is due for one big year to compete for a ring before management realizes it needs to start over. LT is obviously not the back he used to be but Darren Sproles proved in the postseason he's good enough to give LT more of a breather in years past. Coach Norv Turner's willingness to defer at least 30 or 40 percent of the touches to Sproles to keep LT fresh will go a long way when it matters. On defense, there's the return of pass-rushing dynamo Shawne Merriman and the arrival of rookie Larry English to terrorize opposing offenses which will allow former Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie to rebound from an off year last year. With the dearth of talent in the West and the continued health of LT, Rivers, Gates and Merriman, this team can be right with Pittsburgh and Tennessee atop the AFC and could be serious contenders for the Super Bowl.

Gabe: Under. I don't buy into the Chargers at all, ever. They are paper tigers. They have all-world talent on both sides of the ball, but they always underachieve. LT is getting older. His reliable back-up is now the man in Atlanta. Philip Rivers is a hot head and doesn't handle pressure very well. I'll give the Chargers 8 wins, and I think I'm being generous.

Denver Broncos: (Vegas projected win total: 7.5)

Dave: Under. Coach Josh McDaniels didn't waste time making an impact in the House That Elway Built, shipping out Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler and infuriating top WR Brandon Marshall. On top of that, McDaniels looked away from improving the team's swiss-cheese defense in the draft and used its first pick on RB Knowshon Moreno. The cavalcade of backs combined with the temperature of the mercurial Marshall might make things a bit messy in the Mile High as they adjust to McDaniels' complex offense which is being orchestrated by ho-hum QB Kyle Orton. The team is still good enough to finish behind San Diego for 2nd place, but anything more than 7 wins would take a Rocky Mountain sized portion of soul-searching.

Gabe: Over. Here's the deal. Denver is average, but the rest of their division is garbage. Josh McDaniel has made a lot of noise this off season, and not the good kind. But, he knows how to run an offense and Denver has the tools to be great on that side of the ball. They will beat up on the rest of the AFC West, steal a few games otherwise, and win the division with 9 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs: (Vegas projected win total: 5.5)

Dave: Under. On the bright side for Kansas City, the Chiefs have the makings to be a very exciting team. Unfortunately, there are entirely too many question marks for that to occur in the near future. For one, there's the question of who's going to run the ball with Larry Johnson on his way out and young backs Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles ill-equipped to be the top dog. There's also the question of whether QB Matt Cassell can make the transition from a Patriots offense equipped with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to a Chiefs team led by good-but-not-great WR Dwayne Bowe. On defense, they're still transitioning from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and while they have some pieces, it's not enough to form anything resembling a good defense. If Cassell can prove to not be a fluke under the offensive genius of new coach Todd Haley, the Chiefs could give fans something to look forward to. Until then, be happy with 4 wins.

Gabe: Under. They acquired Matt Cassell and got rid of Herm Edwards this off season. Two steps up in my book. Really though, that's all they have done to improve. Like Dave says, Dwayne Bowe is not Randy Moss, and Larry Johnson is getting old. KC stinks and will only win 3 games.

Oakland Raiders: (Vegas projected win total: 5.5)

Dave: Under. Perhaps the trio of QB JaMarcus Russell, RB Darren McFadden and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey use this season to lay the groundwork for a bright future ahead. Perhaps they take all the negativity that has surrounded this franchise since its Super Bowl loss 7 years ago as motivation to shut up the critics. Or perhaps this team is every bit as bad as we've been saying it is all year. If Coach Tom Cable can get the freakish talents of Russell, Run-DMC and DHB and harness them into a poor man's Triplets, maybe this team will have finally built the foundation we've been expecting after all those high draft picks. More likely than that, however, is the Raiders' position in the Top 5 of next year's draft, which will only lead to another head-scratching-yet-amusing Al Davis draft pick.

Gabe: Under. Darren McFadden is good, really good. That's it. That's the list. He has nothing around him and their owner is still a crazy person. I have them beating KC twice and stealing a couple of games at home. I expect 4 wins.

NFC East

New York Giants: (Vegas projected win total: 10.5)

Dave: Under. Gabe will be the first to tell you about all of Big Blue's positives going into this season. How they revamped an already great defense with the signings of Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty and the return of Osi Umenyoira. He'll wax poetically about how Plaxico Burress' departure will help team chemistry and allow Eli Manning to spread the pill around. All of which might be true. Here's why I doubt the Giants this year. For one, unless rookie Hakeem Nicks is the 2nd coming of Randy Moss, this team doesn't have a single wideout who evokes fear in opposing secondaries. Even bigger of an issue than that is the departure of 1,000 yard rusher Derrick Ward. Sure, Ward's absence means more carries for enormous wrecking ball Brandon Jacobs, but Jacobs is a wee bit frail and the extra contact might do more harm than good. The Giants also play in a division that, outside of Dallas, has improved mightily since last season. Do I think the Giants can be a playoff team? Sure, but it's not the same certainty I had at this point last year. 9 wins is a gimme, with double digits within reach if a deep threat emerges.

Gabe: Over. On the surface this looks like a homer pick. But Dave knows better than anyone that I am the world's most pessimistic Giants fan. That being said, I think the Giants are going to have the best pass rush in the NFL, and that goes a long way to winning games. They won a Super Bowl harassing Tom Brady in a way he wasn't used to. Their secondary should be good (it better be after all of the 1st and 2nd round draft picks spent on DB's). Eli has no deep threat right now, and hopefully one will emerge. They will have a bruising running game and a teriffic defense. It won't be pretty, but I have them at 11 wins.

Philadelphia Eagles: (Vegas projected win total: 9)

Dave: Over. The Eagles have a long history under Andy Reid of choking when the spotlight beams bright on them. After their inspiring 2nd half last year and an offseason that saw them bring in top left tackle Jason Peters to pair with underrated Stacy Andrews on the opposite side as well as the drafting of fast wideout Jeremy Maclin and versatile RB LeSean McCoy, expectations run high in The City of Brotherly Love......which is why I like the Eagles to win the division, but not much else. The city of Philly's on-again, off-again love affair with QB Donovan McNabb will be something to see this season as McNabb will have to maintain the same fire he played with last year after being benched midseason. That's a lot of pressure on a guy who isn't exactly what you would call durable. Another factor will be the absence of DC Jim Johnson, who is recovering from cancer. With its speed on offense and its depth on defense, the Eagles will be the team to beat in the NFC, but as always, the biggest opponent standing in Philadelphia's way is themselves.

Gabe: Over. If there were a camera on me while I write this you would have seen me take a break right now. That's how much it pained me to write "over" for the Eagles, easily my least favorite team (and fans) in the NFL. But they are still very good. Player personnel-wise they are as good or better than they have been in recent years. They are minus both of their coordinators from last year. (Dave told you about DC Johnson, OC Shurmur is now in St. Louis.) More importantly, their window is closing. Donovan McNabb is getting older. They should have a sense of urgency this year. God help me, but I have the Eagles winning the NFC East with 12 wins.

Washington Redskins: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Over. Year after year, prognosticators fall in love with the Redskins after their busy offseason and end up getting crushed. This might be the year I fall into that trap as well. I loved the signing of Albert Haynesworth, even though it follows the same bad trend of overspending on overrated free agents that owner Dan Snyder has been doing for years. I liked them bringing back DeAngelo Hall, despite the fact that he's never proven to do much but disappoint. I liked the drafting of athletic freak Brian Orakpo, even though many experts have compared him to combine warrior Vernon Gholston. What I like the most, however, is QB Jason Campbell and his motivation to perform well in his contract year after nearly being replaced twice this offseason by Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. The drive of Campbell along with the continued development of young WRs Malcom Kelly and Devin Thomas might have the Redskins looking like a dark horse come playoff time. Then again, I wouldn't be the first to be wrong on that front with this team.

Gabe: Under. This year the Redskins won the offseason Super Bowl once again, landing Albert Haynesworth. I expect him to balloon to Gilbert Brown size, but without the run stopping talent, very soon. Jason Campbell is going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder for all of reasons Dave mentioned, but his receivers stink. Clinton Portis is getting old and there is no one behind him who can carry the load. 7 wins.

Dallas Cowboys: (Vegas projected win total: 9.5)

Dave: Under. Where do I start? Well, for one, I'm not sold on Tony Romo as an elite QB and even more so now after Dallas replaced wideout/loud mouth Terrell Owens with underachieving hometown hero Roy Williams as the team's # 1 wide reciever. On top of that, an aging offensive line is now a year older. On defense, the team thinned itself even further in the secondary with losses of S Roy Williams and CBs Anthony Henry and Pacman Jones. The front 7 took a hit when the team waved bye-bye to LBs Zach Thomas and Greg Ellis as well as defensive linemen Chris Canty and Tank Johnson. This team couldn't make the playoffs with the afforementioned departures last year and it's hard to think this team can even be a .500 ballclub now that they're gone.

Gabe: Under. Well under. Tony Romo can't keep himself out of the tabloids and might be a tad distracted. Their secondary is flashy but couldn't tackle my younger brother. Roy Williams is talented, but I wonder how he will perform when he as to be "the guy" on a team with expectations. They have a few bright spots. Their front seven is very good and they have Marion Barber, who is, in my opinion, the scariest man in the NFL on the field. I have them at 6 wins.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: Over. Please excuse me while I have a homer moment here. First of all, QB Aaron Rodgers returns a year wiser after a debut season that saw him outperform MVP Peyton Manning statistically(look it up if you don't believe me) and Rodgers will have the comfort of having 10 out of 11 of last year's starters returning this year. Secondly, the team lost 7 games last year by less than a touchdown due in large part to a banged-up defense and Rodgers' inexperience in winning games late. This year, the defense is revamped, moving to a new 3-4 scheme led by defensive whiz Dom Capers and the Packers got aggressive(sort of) in drafting nose tackle B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. The transition will take some time to adjust(particularly for Aaron Kampman, who's moving to linebacker from defensive end), but a easy schedule and a soft division could have the Packers returning back to their spot amongst the NFC's contenders.

Gabe: Over. Dave covered it. They have vastly improved their defense. Aaron Rogers is legit. They play in a half weak division and also have the benefit of beating up on the NFC West this year. They have a home field adavantage unlike any in the NFL, and this year their schedule is front loaded at home, which will put them on a roll. I have the Packers winning 11 games.

Minnesota Vikings: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: Under(if or when they sign Brett Favre). Over(if somehow they don't). Stop me if you heard this one from me before, but the Vikings are a better team without Favre than with him. Having a game manager behind center like Sage Rosenfels as opposed to a turnover machine like Favre would allow the Vikings to stick to what they do best, which is a heavy dose of a running attack led by The Purple People Eater(or Purple Jesus or All Day, whatever you like) Adrian Peterson to help set up a sneaky passing game with crazy quick wideouts Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin. The Vikings defense alone is good for 8 wins, unless Favre's never ending saga of throwing into double coverage forces them onto the field more often than need be. So if they stick with Sage, put me down for 12 wins and a NFC crown, but if they go the likely route and start Favre, they should be considered fortunate to break .500.

Gabe: Over (with or without Brett Favre). Minnesota's defense puts up numbers that would look silly if you posted playing Madden on your Xbox. They have the most dynamic offensive player in the league carrying the ball. Their QB is almost without consequence. I have them starting the season with five wins before running into a murder's row of the Ravens at home and on the road to Pittsburgh and Green Bay. They'll recharge during their bye, come back strong and finish with 9 wins.

Chicago Bears: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Push. The combination of conservative coach Lovie Smith and cannon-armed QB Jay Cutler is the equivalent of driving a Ferrari in a school zone. Even if Smith decides to open up the air attack, the Bears are still a bit raw at receiver with reformed cornerback Devin Hester and Cutler's former college teammate Earl Bennett. The once-stout Bears D is getting a bit long in the tooth as well and there are still questions on the offensive line, despite the addition of future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace at left tackle. On the bright side, the Bears will unleash stud RB Matt Forte, who will be Cutler's best weapon if he can avoid the sophmore slump. However, given Cutler's temperment and the inconsistency of this Bears squad over the years, it's hard to get too excited for their contending prospects just yet.

Gabe: Under. But just barely under. They brought in Jay Cutler but really don't have a legit no. 1 receiver. Their defense is getting old. I don't believe in their supposed upgrades on the O-Line. Outside of the division their schedule is very tough, (Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Eagles). I'll give them 7 wins.

Detroit Lions: (projected win total: 5)

Dave: Under. It's a daunting task to ask a team that couldn't win a game last season to, all of a sudden, win 5 games. For one, the quarterback situation is a mess. Top overall pick Matt Stafford is sure to be given the keys at some point and the success of underclass QBs in their rookie year isn't promising. In the meantime, the Lions will have Daunte Culpepper, whose lack of mobility and tendency to take unneeded punishment makes him the NFL's version of Mumble behind center. The good news is they have the aptly named Megatron, WR Calvin Johnson, to clean up what is sure to be quite a bit of bad throws from the Culpepper/Stafford tandem. Coach Jim Schwartz has been waiting a long time to prove his mettle and he has quite the task in the league's worst franchise, but they're still a few years away before we start pegging them for a handful of wins.

Gabe: Under. So we all know they didn't win a game last year. They have a rookie quarterback, but a stud receiver. They have a coach who is trying to prove something, but a swiss cheese defense. To me that adds up to the Lions not winning a game until after their bye when the Rams come to town. I also have them beating Cleveland in November. 2 wins, that's it.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: Over. Like the Chargers, the Panthers know the window for staying amongst the league's elite and getting closer to shutting. Franchised defensive end Julius Peppers was finally talked into one more year with his hometown team but he's playing for a big contract elsewhere. QB Jake Delhomme owes the team one after being an abomination against Arizona in the playoffs last season. The Panthers showed great versatility on offense with dynamic WR Steve Smith and the tag team of RBs DeAngelo Williams and "The Daily Show" Jonathan Stewart dominating the ground game. The defense isn't the brick wall it used back when it was led by guys like Peppers and Kris Jenkins and Dan Morgan but it still has some studs in MLB Jon Beason and are hoping to get some production out of rookie DE Everette Brown. On paper, they have the type of balance on both sides of the ball to think double digit wins will be a breeze, but the Panthers' big hopes are that their newfound sense of urgency finally pays off.

Gabe: Under. I will admit, they are very balanced on offense. They have a great running game with Williams and Stewart. They have one of the greatest recievers in the league in Steve Smith. They have a great front seven. My concerns are with their secondary and Jake Delhomme. Delhomme can implode at any moment and they play in a division with killer receivers (Roddy White, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson). I don't believe in the Panthers. Put me down for 7 wins.

Tampa Bay Bucs: (Vegas projected win total: 6.5)

Dave: Under. The Bucs spent the entire offseason erasing any remnants of memorable veterans and have went into full rebuilding mode. Their QB clusterfuck will feature a Fatal 4-way between journeymen Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich, rookie Josh Freeman and Jon Gruden holdover Josh Johnson. Neither Leftwich or McCown inspire anyone to believe this team can contend on the level it did last year and Freeman and Johnson are far too raw to do anything but get some valuable experience commandeering an offense led by notorious headcases Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow Jr. On defense, the Bucs would love some more production from former high draft pick Gaines Adams and are looking for some emergence from some other youngsters as well as the team hopes to be back on top of the South in a year or two. Until then, 5 wins might be the ceiling here.

Gabe: Under. I think the Bucs have a chance to be historically bad. Their defense is older than dirt. Their quarterback situation is the messiest in the NFL. Once they decide who is throwing the ball, his number one WR will be Antonio Bryant, who wouldn't scare defenses in my flag football league. Their one really bright spot is Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, and Cadillac Williams in their backfield, but how much can they do if opposing defenses put 9 men in the box. If they don't beat the Jets in Week 14 they could go winless. I'll give them that game for a grand total of 1 win.

New Orleans Saints: (Vegas projected win total: 8.5)

Dave: Over. The Saints are the team to watch after making improvements to their woeful defense in the form of rookie defensive back Malcom Jenkins, veteran safety Darren Sharper and the re-signing of MLB Jonathan Vilma. The improved defense should bring more oppurtunities for the Saints' high octane offense led by 5,000 yard passer Drew Brees. The key for New Orleans, as always, will be former 2nd overall pick Reggie Bush, who has shown flashes of being the playmaker he was at USC but has mostly been a flameout. To help complement Bush, N.O. will look to the vastly underrated Pierre Thomas who replaces Duece McAllister as the team's power back. With an improved defense and an explosive offense, the Saints should rebound after a disappointing year and go back to being contenders in the NFC.

Gabe: Over. The Saints offense is incredible. They are flashy and put up big yards and big points. Their defense is much improved. I think they split with the Falcons, smoke the rest of the division, and win a bunch of their mostly soft out of division games. Put me down for 10 wins.

Atlanta Falcons: (Vegas projected win total: 8)

Dave: Push. The Falcons were left for dead after the exile of Mike Vick and the sudden resignation of Bobby Petrino, but re-emerged from the ashes thanks to the emergence of rookie QB Matt Ryan and the excellence of RB Michael Turner. This year, they added future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez as a safety valve for Ryan. However, there are some concerns. First, there's the question of how Turner performs in year two in the ATL after eclipsing the dreaded 370 carry mark last year. There's also the possibility of the sophmore slump as Ryan is no longer under the radar and will have to adjust to be even more of a marked man. The Falcons are also a bit suspect on defense and are stuck in a division with offensive juggurnauts like Carolina and New Orleans. On paper, the Falcons look like they have moved up another notch from last year's surprise performance but, much like New Orleans the year before, they will find the weight of hefty expectations might be too heavy to bare.

Gabe: Over. It is no secret that last year the Falcons came out of nowhere. I don't think their offense is going to slow down. All Michael Turner did last year was what anyone who watched him in San Diego expected him to do. Matt Ryan might be a target this year, but no more than he was at the end of last year. They will score lots of points and win a lot in and out of the division. 10 games.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: (Vegas projected win total: 7.5)

Dave: Over. About a month ago, I made the comment that I like the Seahawks' chances of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. My mindset hasn't changed. The team improved dramaticly on defense as they now possess potentially the best linebacking core in the NFL with rookie Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. They also brought back cornerback Ken Lucas to add depth to a secondary that was repeatedly burned deep and solidified the interior of the defensive line with DTs Colin Cole and Corey Redding. Last year, the offense suffered from a pleathora of injuries starting with QB Matt Hassellbeck to OT Walter Jones on down to about every reciever on the roster. This year, Hassellbeck and Jones are back and team brought in a new weapon in T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Barring a rash of injuries like last year, it's hard to not see Seattle as one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the conference next year. Lock it up.

Gabe: Over. I think this is the biggest sucker bet on the list. Most people are going to look at Seattle's record last year and immediately go under. Matt Hasselbeck is going to be back. T.J. Houshmanzadeh is going to give them a real receiving threat who can actually hang on to the ball. They play in a weak division and have a weak out of division schedule. I'll go 9 wins.

Arizona Cardinals: (Vegas projected win total: 9)

Dave: Over. The Cardinals could be a .500 team just off the fact that their division is relatively weak(outside of Seattle) and their offense is loaded. Armed with best pass-catching tandem in the league as well as the newly-formed young RB duo of Tim Hightower and Chris "Beanie" Wells, QB Kurt Warner will once again make a run at another ring after coming thisclose last season. The main concerns will be Warner's fragility and whether that will force unproven QB of the future Matt Leinart into the mix and whether Boldin's contract dispute will distract him or the team from its goals. On defense, the Cards face a similar contract situation with LB Karlos Dansby. Assuming coach Ken Whisenhunt can keep everyone in check, the Cards are every bit as good as the team that shook up the world last year. Double digit wins should be a given.

Gabe: Under. I don't believe in their defense. They will have an amazing offense, provided Kurt Warner can maintain. He is getting very old, but has a plethora of weapons around him, including easily the best receiving tandem in the league. But how many 35-31 games are they going to be able to win? I have them at 8 wins.

San Francisco 49ers: (Vegas projected win total: 7)

Dave: Under. Cagey old veterans turned coaching drill sargents like Niners coach Mike Singletary have become old hat in the new NFL where players and agents run things. Tom Coughlin had to tone it down to get the Giants to succeed. The Jags tuned out Jack Del Rio and Marty Schottenheimer is still looking for work after being canned by San Diego a few years ago. The young Niners willingness to listen to a legend like Singletary will be the key factor to this team's success. Singletary made a splash early into his debut last year after taking disappointing TE Vernon Davis to task in front of the media following a loss. This year, Singletary will try to get through to cocky rookie wideout Michael Crabtree, who slid in the draft thanks to questions about his attitude as well as his speed. Another issue for Singletary will be the conundrum at QB between incumbent Shaun Hill and former top overall pick Alex Smith. Hill was solid yet unspectacular down the stretch last season and Smith took a pay cut in an effort to resume his career after numerous shoulder surguries. The dark horse to look out for on the QB depth chart will be rookie Nate Davis, who looked like a solid prospect coming out of Ball St. but performed poorly in postseason workouts and slipped considerably. If Singletary can restore order in the locker room and find a solid QB out of his bag of unproven arms, the team could be better than expected. If not, say hello to Sam Bradford!

Gabe: Under. I don't know what to think of this team. They are a mess. Head Coach Mike Singletary seems to be a crazy disciplinarian, but has to deal with Vernon Davis and now Michael Crabtree. They will produce good numbers if, and it is a big if, they get good play from whoever is under center. Frank Gore is a stud, but doesn't have much help. Their defense is not very good other than Nate Clements. I have them at 4 wins.

St. Louis Rams: (Vegas projected win total: 5)

Dave: Under. They finally got the left tackle they needed four years later. Baylor OT Jason Smith is being hailed by scouts as the type of franchise left tackle the Rams can build around for years to come. That's nice. Unfortunately, the team still has a ways to go on defense and not even coach Steve Spagnuolo can make a half-decent unit out of this group of underachievers. On offense, the team bid adieu to former Pro Bowler Torry Holt, leaving them with second-year wideout Donnie Avery. He'll catch passes from battered QB Marc Bulger, who might just be keeping the seat warm for whomever the Rams take with the #1 pick next year. On the bright side, if the Rams can get 16 games out of workhorse RB Steven Jackson, he'll do wonders for your fantasy team. For the Rams? Not so much.

Gabe: Under. New Head Coach. New Offensive Coordinator. Said goodbye to Torry Holt. Marc Bulger was mud when he was throwing to Holt and Bruce. He is going to awful when his no. 1 WR is Donnie Avery. Stephen Jackson is a stud. The rest of the team is shit from top to bottom. I think every week we'll see the team playing the Rams bring back Buddy Ryan's 11-men-in-the-box 4-6 defense. If they don't beat the 49er's in Week 17 they will no win a game. Here's to 0 wins once again in my lifetime.

There. Call your bookies. Throw us a kickback when you win.