Friday, February 26, 2010

Who Dat Signing L.T.?

Now that aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson's tenure in San Diego is being referred in the past tense instead of present tense, we can now all focus on where L.T. will glide his once-nimble feet and don the trademark tinted visor. With solid running back rookie classes the last couple years, there are fewer openings for a soon-to-be 31-year old running back with a backwash-sized amount of juice left in his legs than there might have been in years past.

That's why, if Tomlinson has even the slightest bit of life in his cerebral cortex, he will dot the L and cross the T on a contract to sign with the New Orleans Saints. When it comes down to it, the only teams that can offer the two things L.T. would require upon agreeing to come aboard(significant playing time and a shot at a Super Bowl) are Philadelphia and New Orleans. The Eagles just bid adieu to longtime back Brian Westbrook. On top of that, the team is at least considering moving quarterback mainstay Donovan McNabb. That shows you that the Eagles are going towards a youth movement(with Westbrook being replaced by last year's rookie steal LeSean McCoy and McNabb succeeded by Kevin Kolb). Even if the Eagles keep McNabb, Andy Reid isn't exactly committed to the running game. Plus, why would L.T. sign on to play in a harsh city like Philly(where the fans are assholes....Yeah, I said it) when the team could very well ship out two of its best offensive weapons? Another underlying factor against a Eagles-Tomlinson partnership? The weather. Tomlinson was born and raised in smoldering hot Texas. He played nine years of pro ball in sunny San Diego. You think he's spending the twilight of his career having his bones ache in the biting cold of Philadelphia? I didn't think so either.

So why the champs? Well, there's the simple answers: They're the defending champs and they happen to have L.T.'s former teammate/BFF Drew Brees. Now, Brees came out on Twitter after Tomlinson's release and felt the crowd out on the possibility of a Brees-Tomlinson NOLA reunion before going the diplomatic route of bigging up his own stable of backs(even going as far as saying that the foursome of Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Lynell Hamilton and Mike Bell might be the best stable of backs in the NFL....which, to put it mildly, is a bit far-fetched). That being said, Bush is in the last year of his rookie contract, Bell wasn't retained and the Saints haven't exactly rushed to sign Thomas long-term just yet. Also, keep in mind that the Saints flirted with the idea of drafting Ohio St. RB Beanie Wells last April(before settling on Wells' teammate, CB Malcom Jenkins) and could be in the market for another one of L.T.'s old 'mates: CB Antonio Cromartie(who has been made available in exchange for a starter-quality RB). Could the Saints strike a deal with L.T. and then fill another hole by dangling Thomas or Bush in exchange for Cromartie? Wouldn't exactly be the worst of moves. Plus, as much as Brees believes in his backfield boys, the fact remains that the leading rusher for New Orleans was Thomas with a measly 793 yards(although, in fairness, that was still 63 yards better than L.T., but I digress). Brees might believe that his team can defend the title with a no-name run game. The Patriots believed that to at the beginning of the millennium, after winning a couple Super Bowls with guys like Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk. Inevitably, they realized that going with an ordinary back wasn't going to work in the long run and swung a deal for Corey Dillon. The same is true for New Orleans. Pierre Thomas put on a nice show in the Super Bowl, and yeah, maybe he can be a decent back in the NFL, but can you have a dynasty with Pierre Thomas as your starting RB? I don't think so. If the Saints can talk San Diego into a Thomas-for-Cromartie deal, then give a Bush-Tomlinson combination one year to fix their rushing woes, what do they lose in the long run? What are the chances of Thomas being a 1,400 yard rusher in San Diego? 20%? If the Bush-LT tandem doesn't work, you could let both loose next season and go back to the drawing board with a new young back. Running back has proven to be one of the most replaceable positions in the NFL. The Jets went from Curtis Martin to Thomas Jones to Shonn Greene effortlessly. Same for Kansas City going from Priest Holmes to Larry Johnson to Jamaal Charles. Pierre Thomas might be a decent young back, but irreplaceable he is not.

Now, what does a rapidly declining L.T. bring to the champs? Well, that's the wild card. In the NFL's history, we've seen teams leave aging RBs for dead on the open market, only for said aging RB to re-up elsewhere and find the fountain of youth. Remember Stephen Davis? Considered washed up by Washington and eventually signs with Carolina upon his release from the Redskins and teams with DeShaun Foster to carry the Panthers to the Super Bowl. There's Emmitt Smith, who wasn't quite ready to hang 'em up after breaking Walter Payton's record with the Cowboys and went on to two mildly productive seasons in Arizona. There's also Brett Favre. While not a running back, Favre did come back last season, with his prime years far behind him, to lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship.

Of course, there's the flip side to signing an RB on the decline. There's Eddie George's tenure with Cowboys, after being cut from Tennessee. Before that, there was Tony Dorsett's beleaguered run with Denver after a long career with Dallas. Most recently, there was former MVP Shaun Alexander struggling to even convert 3rd-and-1s with Washington after record-breaking seasons in Seattle.

Look, am I saying L.T. will go back to being a 1,500 yard back if he signs with New Orleans? Of course not. Could I see him putting up 1,200 total yards with double digit touchdowns under Sean Payton's tutelage and with Bush giving him the occasional breather? Sure. The key factor for Tomlinson will be motivation. Does he want to tune out the cries of an aging and aching body and chase immortality one last time with his old buddy Brees or would he be content leaving the game, hat in hand, and in one piece?

If it's the former for L.T., the only logical move would be for him to break out some beads and go gliding down Bourbon Street as a member of the New Orleans Saints.

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