Getting down to the final two divisions of our MLB Preview, here's our take on the AL East:
Dave's Projected Finish:
1. New York Yankees: It's hard to think the defending champions aren't the team to beat, not just in the AL, but in the entire league. After a frivolous offseason a year ago that saw them bring in pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett as well as 1B Mark Teixiera, the Yankees had a somewhat quiet offseason this year. Perhaps because they no longer have the chip on their shoulder that comes from failing to win a championship with the league's highest payroll. The Yankees did, however, manage to improve in two big areas. They continued to bolster their rotation by bringing in former Yankee Javier Vazquez from Atlanta to, theoretically, take Joba Chamberlain's spot as the 3rd starter. They waved bye-bye to aging outfielders Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and filled those spots with slick-fielding holdover Brett Gardner and offseason acquisition Curtis Granderson. They also managed to bring back former Yankee prospect Nick Johnson to both fill in at DH and spell Teixiera if needed. They also managed to talk starter Andy Pettite to come back for one more season.
The moves that will have the big impact, though, will be bringing in Granderson and Vazquez. Granderson's speed and power from the leadoff spot makes an already dangerous lineup that much more intimidating. Additionally, Granderson's young legs will provide an upgrade in center from the defensively-deficient duo of Damon and Melky Cabrera. As for Vazquez, his presence allows Chamberlain to move back to his more natural spot as Mariano Rivera's setup man, which will bolster a bullpen that has had its troubles in years past.
And that's just the new guys. Lest we forget that the team still has Sabathia(who came thisclose to winning the Cy Young last season) and Burnett(overpaid but serviceable) as one of the top 1-2 pitching combos in baseball. They also have a lineup that will now feature a healthy Alex Rodriguez. Despite missing two months with a hip injury and being hampered all season by a nasty steroid scandal, A-Rod still managed to smack 30 homers and drive in 100 runs and, most importantly, shattered the "post-season choke artist" label by winning his first ring.
So, once again, the Yankees are 100 foot colossus towering over the league and drawing envy and hatred from those below them, but now that they no longer have something to prove, will the Bronx Bombers still have the hunger to defend the title? Will they be too consumed with their own press clippings to focus on being the dominant team that their roster suggests they'll be. If the answer is yes to both questions, then this team will represent the AL in the Series once again and the franchise's 28th championship might not be far from its grasp.
2. Boston: Last season may have been the worst possible scenario for the boys from Beantown and Red Sox Nation. Not only did the offense appear toothless in its first full season without slugger Manny Ramirez, but the BoSox had to sit back and watch their hated rival, the New York Yankees, enjoy another ticker tape parade. On the bright side, that anguish led to an offseason that saw them fill some needs. They overpaid quite a bit for former Angels workhorse John Lackey, but his addition to a rotation that already has perennial Cy Young contenders Josh Beckett and Jon Lester makes the Sox much more formidable. The key for the rotation will be bounce back years from former high-priced free agent pickup Diasuke Matsuzaka(4-6, 5.76 ERA) and once-promising pitching prospect Clay Buchholz.
Improved play from Buchholz will only further his trade value and speed up his inevitable exile from Boston in return for the big bat the team failed to pick up in the offseason. The BoSox were unwilling to get into a bidding war to keep Jason Bay and they were rebuffed in their attempt to bring in Matt Holliday. Instead, the Red Sox ended up with free-swinging strikeout machine Mike Cameron and solid 3B Adrian Beltre. With Beltre leaving the spacious Safeco Field for a better hitter's park in Fenway, not to mention slipping into a lineup that offers a bit more protection thanks to the presence of former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, hard-hitting 1B Kevin Youkilis and midseason pickup Victor Martinez, Beltre should double last year's production(which isn't saying much, since he hit 8 HRs with 44 RBIs) but is probably a longshot to match the career year he had in his last season with the Dodgers(48 HRs, 121 RBI, .334 BA) even despite the more hitter-friendly surroundings.
If the Red Sox can manage to use their farm system to finagle a big bat like Detroit's Miguel Cabrera or, more likely, San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez, than they would be able to shed their role as Robin to the Yankees' Batman. After all, the rotation is as deep as its been in a long time(although I'll admit not as top heavy) and they are complemented by a solid bullpen led by soon-to-be-exiled closer Jonathan Papelbon. Still, the Red Sox are going to need to pack a harder punch if they want to stand toe-to-toe with the Mike Tyson of the division, the New York Yankees.
3. Tampa Bay: Much like they did last year, the Rays sit coiled and ready to pounce if the Red Sox or even the Yankees falter. They have a solid young lineup, headlined by 3B Evan Longoria(.281, 33 HRs, 113 RBI last season). Last season, the Rays found some protection for Longoria in the most unlikely of spots. Shortstop Jason Bartlett(.320, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 30 sB) and 2B Ben Zobrist(.297, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 17 SB) broke out the whooping sticks last year and added depth to a lineup that already had All-Stars Longoria and first baseman Carlos Pena. Bartlett and Zobrist picked up the slack left by disappointing offseason pickups Matt Joyce and Pat Burrell. Even B.J. Upton had a down year, as he saw his average drop to .241(down from .273 the year before) and hit only 11 HRs, which was up from 9 the year before but a far cry from the 24 he put in the stands in '07.
Then, there's the rotation. The Rays didn't get what they had hoped last season out of former #1 pick and 2008 postseason hero David Price(10-7, 4.43 ERA, 102 K's) and former ace Scott Kazmir was so bad that the team dealt him to the Angels for peanuts midseason. New #2 Matt Garza came on strong to start the season but faded down the stretch. If the Rays are going to compete with their big market rivals in Boston and New York, they will have to get more out of their young starting pitching. They'll also need their rebuilt bullpen to be able to close the door when games get tight. New closer Rafael Soriano has electric stuff but can be a bit inconsistent as well as being a bit brittle. Having made a World Series appearance just two years ago, it's hard to call the Rays a "dark horse" in the East, but missing the playoffs last year after their Cinderella 2008 might have gotten them dismissed by some experts. Granted, the team is young and some major maturation will be needed if they are going to continue to compete with the endlessly wealthy Red Sox and Yankees but, make no mistake, this team is as dangerous as any if all the young talent comes together at the right time.
4. Baltimore: Debating between the Orioles and Blue Jays over who will finish last in the East is like pitching which Flipmode Squad member is the worst: Spliff Starr or Baby Sham. If the O's have one thing in their favor ahead of Toronto, it's that they didn't just trade away their Cy Young-winning ace for a crew of prospects. Unfortunately, that's because they don't have a pitcher good enough to warrant such a blockbuster deal. To their credit though, the O's have some potential in that lineup. Highly touted prospect, C Matt Wieters, wasn't exactly the second coming of Yogi Berra that some were championing but he showed some promise at the plate(.288, 9 HRs, 43 RBI in 96 games). He'll be helped in the lineup by young outfielders Adam "Don't Call Me Pac-Man" Jones(.277, 19 HRs, 70 RBIs) and Nick Markakis(.293, 18 HRs and 101 RBI) as well as the returning and possibly 50-year old Miguel Tejada as well as probably-roided-up Brian Roberts. While neither Roberts or Tejada can be expected to be what they once were as Roberts' trademark speed has lost a step(as evidenced by his decline in stolen base totals the past few years) and Tejada's bat has lost some pop(probably because he's damn near 60 or because he's not on the juice anymore or both....whichever you choose to believe).
The pitching staff is......well, for lack of a better term, not good. Veteran innings-eater Kevin Millwood signed on to be the "ace" of a young and unproven rotation, which would be like Bruce Bowen signing with the Nets to provide some scoring. Behind Millwood, there isn't much. Jeremy Guthrie went 10-17 last year with an ERA just over 5, which was just slightly higher than the 4.62 put up by Brian Mutusz.....and they're the 2 and 3 starters. Seriously. The bullpen is loaded with guys good teams didn't want like former Padre Cla Meredith and new closer Mike Gonzalez, who was once a promising reliever with the Braves and Pirates. Needless to say, Jimmy Key isn't warming up any time soon. Still, there's some semblance of hope, thanks to a prospect-rich lineup, which gives them a slight edge over the Halladay-less Blue Jays.
5. Toronto: When the team brought back old manager Cito Gaston to run things once again two years ago, they must have been hoping he was bringing Joe Carter and John Olerud with him. After dealing former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay to Philly in the offseason's biggest trade, this year's edition of the Blue Jays are unique mix of mediocre castoffs, one-hit wonders and former stars looking for a way out on the first thing smoking. The MVP of that latter category is former All-Star centerfielder Vernon Wells, who continues to study from the Plaxico Burress book of "How To Kill My Trade Value" by being either injured or just a flat out disappointment. Wells' fading motivation on the latest Canadian franchise to soil an American sport has shrunk his potential from huge trading chip to Mike Lowell. Since his .303/32/106/17 season in 2006, Wells has followed that up with .245/16/80/10 in '07, .300/20/78/4 in '08 and last season's .260/15/66/17 campaign.
Luckily for Toronto, the offensive void left by Wells' lack of motivation was filled by left fielder Adam Lind. Unfortunately for Toronto, Lind's 35 HRs and 114 RBI in 2009 were more than the combined totals of Lind's previous three seasons. In other words, Lind could very well be this generation's Brady Anderson. The same can almost be said for second baseman Aaron Hill, whose 36 homers last season is more than his home run total combined in the past four seasons, although his 106 RBIs in '09 is only slightly less than his career RBI total prior to last season....and these are the two biggest bats in the lineups(well, three biggest if Wells shows a pulse). The others in the lineup? Lyle Overbay, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez.......I'll take "Guys I Would Have Wanted In 2004" for $200, Alex.
As for the post-Doc pitching staff? Well, if you insist. There's 1st half rookie sensation Ricky Romero, who is now the team's #1 starter. Behind him? Veteran Shawn Marcum, former Mariner Brandon Morrow and two guys you wouldn't find in a pack of 2010 Fleer Ultra. Um, yes, Mr. Gaston, Juan Guzman is returning your call on Line 2, sir. Look, this is the price you pay when you don't have the money to pay your franchise player the money he deserves. The Blue Jays won 75 games last season with Halladay notching 17 of those W's. I'd say it's a fair bet that not only will the Jays not even come close to 75 wins but they'd be hard-pressed to have a starter with even 12 wins this season, let alone 17.
Gabe's Projected Finish:
1. New York Yankees - Is there any question about this? The champs are back and just as loaded this year as last year, if no more so. No team takes advantage of baseball's economic climate more than the Yankees. Hate on them if you want to but everything they do is within the rules, they just play the money game better than almost anyone.
You know the big names and you know the stats, I don't need to get into those. I will say though, Curtis Granderson will be an upgrade over Johnny Damon. Also, adding Javier Vasquez is going to be huge. He has pitched over 200 innings each year since 2000 with one exception, 2004 when he pitched 198 innings. That means that Vasquez routinely gets into the seventh inning of his starts and will ease some pressure on the bullpen.
The Yankees line-up is getting a little old so there is a concern over injury, but outside of that, I don't see why they won't repeat as AL Champs and have a damn good chance to win it all again.
2. Boston Red Sox - The last season and a half show just how much the Red Sox miss Manny Ramirez's offense. He was a tent pole in the line-up that protected everyone and made them all better. Just look at David Ortiz's numbers. In 2007 he had 182 hits and scored 116 runs. Last year, 129 and 77, in only eight fewer at bats. 35 homers and 117 RBI in '07 compared to 28 and 99 last year. And the bottom has just fallen out of his batting average and slugging and on-base percentages. The good news for Boston is they added Adrian Beltre in the off-season and he should have a field day hitting in Fenway. In general the Sox hit and pitch better at home. He should add so pop to their offense, but will be not quite as effective as Ramirez.
Speaking of pitching, the Sox are loaded with starting pitching, provided all of the guys play up to their talent. Like Dave said, they added John Lackey to an already formidable rotation. I think they are clearly the 2nd place team in the division, easily ahead of everyone else, but still behind the Yankees. I expect Boston to be the favorite to win the wild-card and once they get into the postseason...who knows.
3. Tampa Bay Rays - Just as I think the Red Sox are clearly the no. 2 team in the East I think the Rays are the no. 3 team in the East. They are certainly better than the Orioles and Blue Jays, hell, the Virginia Cavaliers might be better than the O's and Jays, but they aren't as good as the Sox or Yanks. They have a great starter in Matt Garza and and a great closer in Rafael Soriano. Their line-up with Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawfard, and B.J. Upton is young and talented. If injuries or health concerns get to the teams on the top I could see Tampa Bay competing for 2nd place.
4. Baltimore Orioles - The O's win the coin flip for the bottom of the division because, to me, they have some nice young hitting. Nick Markakis and Matt Weiters are good, although Weiters already has injury issues. The additions of Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood are great moves in 2003. Now they are just old guys playing out the string. The O's haven't have had a winning season in 12 years...this year will be unlucky number 13.
5. Toronto Blue Jays - Doc is gone. Vernon Wells is a shell of who he used to be. The rest of their roster is a bunch of young guys and journeymen who I wouldn't recognize if they walked into my living room wearing their jersey. It's going to be a long year north of the border.
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