The Boom Roasted Sports Guide to the Oscars

We bill this little blog as a space that discusses "sports and other stuff that might not matter," but lately we have been going really heavy on the sports and not so much on the "other stuff."

Dave calls the NFL Draft his "Christmas come early." Well, one might say that the Academy Awards are my second Super Bowl. In fact, sacrilegious as it may sound, the Academy Awards may be the annual television event I most look forward to watching.

I'll be sharing some of my thoughts and predictions in some of the major categories. I'll focus on the big categories - picture, acting, writing, directing, etc. - and not as much on the technical stuff, but I'll hit a few of those too.

So, here is, for what it's worth, the Boom Roasted Sports guide to the Oscars.

(Disclaimer: I have not scene every movie nominated in every category. I have seen, roughly, a little more than half of them.)


Best Picture: Nominees (in alphabetical order) - Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air.

My predicted winner: The Hurt Locker

The first interesting thing about the Best Picture category is that there are ten nominees instead of five. This hasn't been done since the 1930's or 1940's. They did this so more commercial movies with broad appeal could get recognized.

The second interesting thing is how the voting will be done. Instead of just voting for the best picture and the film with the most first place votes being declared the winner, this year voters were asked to rank the films from one through ten. The first place votes are going to be tallied and the film with the fewest votes will be eliminated. On the ballots that had the eliminated film in first place the second place choices will count, and once again the film with the fewest votes is eliminated. This will continue until one film has over 50% of the vote.

So does that all mean practically? I think this category from the beginning has been a two-horse race, between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. I think the voting process is going to be a great thing for The Hurt Locker. Avatar, for all of the money it has made, is going to suffer from a lot of backlash. Not everyone liked that movie, but almost everyone who has seen The Hurt Locker has agreed that it is at least really good, if not great. The Hurt Locker will appear near the top on more ballots than Avatar or any of the other nominees.

(For what it's worth, my top three would be, in order - The Hurt Locker, Avatar, District 9.)

Best Actor: Nominees - Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, George Clooney in Up in the Air, Colin Firth in A Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus, and Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

My predicted winner: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

Early on, all of the buzz for this category was around Morgan Freeman and his nearly perfect portrayal of Nelson Mandela. The problem for him is one, Invictus was a bad movie, and two Nelson Mandela is not an exciting person. Freeman played Mandela quiet, reserved, and compassionate, which is exactly what Mandela is. That doesn't pop though and voters are going to be drawn to Jeff Bridges' Bad Blake, the whiskey drinking, four times divorced, playing bowling alley shows, down on his luck country singer. His performance was raw and showed how this character could be vulnerable and emotional in his personal life while still trying to be the country outlaw on stage. Bridges also did all of his own singing.

George Clooney was very good in a movie that is very good, but very good in the way the Indianapolis Colts are very good. Very good and very boring. Jeremy Renner might get a few extra votes because the voters tend to recognize films that get nominations in bunches...which is exactly the reason Colin Firth will not win. He represents the only nomination received by A Single Man.

Best Actress - Nominees - Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, Helen Mirren in The Last Station, Carey Mulligan in An Education, Gabourey Sidibe in Precious, and Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia

My Predicted Winner: Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia

All of the buzz and all of the awards leading up to the Oscars have gone to either Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. I'll admit some ignorance, in that of the nominated performances I have only seen Streep's. Newcomers Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan should feel good about being nominated. Helen Mirren looks incredible in the scenes I've seen, but there isn't enough buzz around her. I just can't believe Miss Congeniality 1 & 2 was that good. Meryl Streep was Julia Child, but unlike Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela, Julia Child was energetic, and loud, and quirky, and larger than life. Streep absolutely nailed it.


Best Supporting Actor - Nominees - Matt Damon in Invictus, Woody Harrelson in The Messanger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones, and Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds.

My Predicted Winner: Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds

Matt Damon was great as a rugby player in Invictus. The problem is one, he wasn't great as the rugby player he was supposed to be, and two, the movie was bad. Both I think will work to his disadvantage. Woody Harrelson has gotten some recognition for his performance as well and is a dark horse to win, but there is just too much momentum behind Waltz. I'm not quite as enamored with his performance or the movie as most people are. He was very good from a technical standpoint. He was charming and brooding all at once and in the course of the film he deftly switched between four languages. Perhaps he is the favorite not because of his performance, but because he was clearly better than the other nominees. Either way, it's his award to lose.


Best Supporting Actress - Nominees - Penelope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air, and Mo'Nique in Precious.

My Predicted Winner: Mo'Nique in Precious

The nominees could be listed as "Mo'Nique and the four women who's names are filling up the ballot." I haven't seen Precious yet (shamelss plug: available for purchase on DVD and Blu-Ray March 9th), but I will soon. She has all of the momentum and buzz and from the clips I've seen, she is outstanding.

I have seen three of the other performances though, so let me take some time to talk about one of them. When is the rest of Hollywood going to realize that Maggie Gyllenhaal is consistently the weakest part of any movie she is in? I couldn't stand her in Crazy Heart. Someone called her the emotional center of the movie. She was a piece of wood. The only emotions she showed were anger and blank stare. OK, I'm done. Big ups to Mo'Nique.


Best Director - Nominees - Kathyrn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, James Cameron for Avatar, Lee Daniels for Precious, Jason Reitman for Up in the Air, and Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds.

My Predicted Winner - James Cameron for Avatar

This category is full of talent, young and old. You have relative newcomers, like Lee Daniels and Jason Reitman (who, by the way, has directed three features, and gotten nominated for two of them), up against some old veterans in the other three nominees. Often times the award for Best Director goes to the person who directed the Best Picture winner. Using that logic I should say Kathyrn Bigelow will win, but I think the work James Cameron did to produce Avatar will be recognized. Yes, the story was predictable, and yes, I think the Hurt Locker was a better film, but the technical work and visual effects (foreshadowing?) are just so far beyond anything that has been done in film before. Cameron changed the way movies will be made and seen with Avatar and I think he'll win because of that.

Best Animated Feature - Nominees - Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, and Up.

My Predicted Winner: Up

History says Pixar will do it again and Up will take home this trophy, and I think there really isn't much competition. The Secret of Kells doesn't have the buzz, although I hear it is very good. The Princess and the Frog is lucky to even be in this conversation. Fantastic Mr. Fox is great, I hear, but also doesn't have the momentum. The hipster in me would love to see Coraline win, because I love that movie, but I just don't think it is going to happen. People will vote for Pixar because of muscle-memory and Up will win.

Best Original Screenplay - Nominees - Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker, Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds, Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman for The Messanger, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for A Serious Man, and Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, and Tom McCarthy for Up

My Predicted Winner - Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker

I could see Quentin Tarantino getting some votes, but a lot of times the winner for Best Picture also wins in the writing categories. I see that happening again this year and Mark Boal taking home the trophy.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Nominees - Neil Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell for District 9, Nick Hornby for An Education, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche for In The Loop, Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious, and Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air.

My Predicted Winner - Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious

This category is wide open and I could see any of the nominees winning. I love that In The Loop is getting recognized. That film has some of the most ornate and creative swearing I have ever heard. I think the award will go to Fletcher though. He had the challenging task of converting the book Push into a screenplay and nailed it.

Quick Picks:

Original Song - The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) by T-Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham - This category used to be dominated by The Mouse, but in recent years has gone in a more acoustic/singer-songwriter direction. I think this song will beat out the other nominees, including two songs from Disney's The Princess and the Frog.

Visual Effects - Avatar - In any other year the other two nominees, Star Trek and District 9, would have great chances to win, but not this year.

Original Score - Sherlock Holmes - I'm taking a flyer here. This award will probably go to Up, but I loved the score in Sherlock Holmes and think it fit the movie perfectly.

Film Editing - The Hurt Locker

Cinematography - Avatar